Joseph Schwarzmann
Press Officer, Lent 2018
Email:
Cambridge, 19 October 2018
Press Release:01 February 2018
This House Fears Kim’s North Korea More than Putin’s Russia
Proposition 1:
Raphael Marshall, from Queen’s College Oxford who was recently voted best debater in the world championships, opened by comparing the freedom of speech and protest that exists in Russia compared to that of North Korea. He highlighted that lots of anxiety about Russia is due to critics from the United States. Rafi went on by stating that whilst Russia has violated international law it has done so without desires for complete world domination like that of North Korea. In addition, he argued that Russian confrontation would lose non-trivial parts of the population that are not complete in favour of its government. By comparing Russia to North Korea, he stated that North Korea, unlike Russia, does not believe that its neighbour is even a legitimate state. He made the final point that Kim Jong Un is likely to overreact to any America provocation with devastating effect.
‘Russia has had nuclear armed for half a century and has failed to take action on any of its neighbours’
‘North Korea keeps on firing nuclear capable missiles over our allies’
Opposition 1:
James Hoare, former foreign diplomat who lay the foundations for an embassy in North Korea, opened by stating how little we actually know about North Korea, about the leadership and about the country itself. In addition, he went on by stating how small it was, relatively compared to South Korea both in terms of its population and GDP. He furthered his case by stating that lots of its military arsenal was old from World War II. James made the point that there are hundreds of artillery structures pointed at Soeul, which houses ¼ of the population, highlighting that this is a threat but that is has been contained so far. He furthered his argument by stating Russia has both the capabilities and intentions to cause significant damage. He finished by stating that a press who seek big news stories has built up lots of hatred directed at North Korea.
‘Remember all of you the wise words of Kim Jong Um “anybody who said they were an expert on North Korea are a fool” I agree with him entirely’
Proposition 2:
Barbara Demick, book writer and American journalist, opened by showing that the North Korean do not have much to lose, they are a poor country who always believe that the end is near and that makes them dangerous. Barbara continued by stating how she firmly does not believe that North Korea can swallow South Korea, but it has the unpredictability factor because of President Trump. In addition, the North Koreans have made significant progress with their military arsenal and a war with them will not be contained. Indeed, she stated that North Korea would have to go nuclear very fast. She ended by stating how a vacuum of power due to the fall of North Korea would lead to a huge face off between China and the United States.
‘The barefoot man does not fear the man who has shoes’
‘The last lash of the dragons tail – something very terrible could happen’
Opposition 2:
Louise Mensch, former Conservative MP and commentator on Putin’s Russia, opened by stating she is going to focus on Russia and the threat his army of trolls will cause. She highlight that the threat of Mr Putin is more than just a war. She explained Russia, with their own cyber bots,pursue their own agenda around the world.She went on by arguing that women are clear second class citizens in Russia and the things this incurred. She finished, that it is not about the Russians or North Koreans being bad, but it was the madmen at the top who were threatening peace in our world.
‘The danger that Mr Putin represents is far greater than war’
‘Putin’s madness is under reported on’
‘The Russian embassy from South Africa gave me the fake news award’
Proposition 3:
Tim Riley, a business consultant to Russian businesses who is also studying for a postgraduate at Cambridge University, opened by stating that we have to define who the proposition was, and that is as representing all countries in the world. He defined threat as intent to harm, the capability to harm and, finally, the actual risk posed. Tim went on by stating that the only country in the world to ever use nuclear weapons is the United States, twice, not Russia despite having the capabilities. In addition, he argued that Putin was stable, whilst perhaps aggressive, in compared to Kim, who you therefore cannot negotiate with. To finish, he argued that Russia is no longer a superpower but still thinks like a superpower with an understanding of the world’s institutions, knowing fully how far it can push the boundaries.
‘If they have got this rocket, do they intend to use it, that was the million dollar question’
‘Putin is predictable and consistent, he is a negotiators dream’
Opposition 3:
Adam Cathcart, North Korean analyst and professor at Leeds University, opened by stating that North Korea was a problem that has continuously changed in scope but it does not represent the hybrid threat that Russia does. He admitted that the North Korean army is formidable, but there is an upper limit to their violence. It is not an expansionist power in the way that Russia is and they see their own nuclear force as a defence for their vital structures such as the economy. In addition, he argued the North Korean nuclear programme predated US intervention such as Libya. He finished by stating that he believed that the United Kingdom should continue to support US sanctions.
‘If you want to be safe from a North Korean missile, then live where they are aiming as they probably will not hit it’
‘I don’t think we should support a bloody nose strike on the North Koreans’
Proposition 4:
John Everard, former British diplomat for a whole string of countries, opened by stating when he was a student at Cambridge he would debate whether the USSR would cause the end of the world. Now, there are two threats to world harmony as oppose to one. He argued that Kim’s drive is all about trying to survive. John argued that the interaction between Trump and Kim is what makes the threat so real. The greatest threat, John concluded, was that a mistake was very possible and this would inevitably lead to world destruction, given North Korea’s position.
‘This is a man who has his back against the wall, having to have his half-brother executed’
‘To negotiate with the United States he needs to be in the position he can destroy American cities’
‘Kim Jong Un is a great strategist, Putin is an opportunist’
‘The act of using them is suicide for him’
Opposition 4:
Alasdair Donovan, the Union debating officer, opened by stating that Kim only seeks his survival, as shown by the assassination of his relatives. He went on by explaining that the threat to life that Russia poses is known, and that the ability to create instability which the Russians can do undermines everyone’s ability to self-determination. In addition, Allistair undermined the proposition’s argument that the fact North Korea had never had nuclear weapons posed a problem, as they always had the ability to flatten Soeul if they wanted to. He argued war and conflict are by their nature unpredictable, and Putin himself will not remain predictable just as he was previously. He concluded that Russia are more likely to go past the point of return, and with the extra scale, it seems credible we should fear them more.
‘It seems quite unlikely they [North Korea] would do something that stupid as to kill themselves’