SIXTH FRAMEWORK PROGRAMME
Project no: 502687
NEEDS
New Energy Externalities Developments for Sustainability
INTEGRATED PROJECT
Priority 6.1: Sustainable Energy Systems and, more specifically,
Sub-priority 6.1.3.2.5: Socio-economic tools and concepts for energy strategy.
Deliverable n° D9.2 – RS1b
“Analytical overview of the technical and scientific production of the stream 1b”
Due date of deliverable: March 2009
Actual submission date: March 2009
Start date of project: 1 September 2004 Duration: 48 months
Organisation name for this deliverable: University Stuttgart
Project co-funded by the European Commission within the Sixth Framework Programme (2002-2006)Dissemination Level
PU / Public
PP / Restricted to other programme participants (including the Commission Services)
RE / Restricted to a group specified by the consortium (including the Commission Services) / X
CO / Confidential, only for members of the consortium (including the Commission Services)
1. General objectives
Overall objective:
To further develop, improve and extend the methodology for calculating energy externalities, and in particular:
· To improve current methods, tools and datasets (e.g. Exposure/Response functions, exposure patterns, valuation of mortality and morbidity, transport of atmospheric pollutants, etc.)
· To analyse new impact pathways (e.g. soil, water, etc.)
· To improve application of models for dispersion and chemical transformation of “classical” air pollutants on different scales
· To analyse new impacts (e.g. loss of biodiversity, Northern Hemispheric impacts, impacts from indoor sources, etc.)
· To improve the assessment and the evaluation of release of greenhouse gases and climate change
· To develop methodology for linking external cost estimation with economy/energy/environmental models and with LCA data
· To reduce current uncertainties and close existing knowledge gaps.
Expected results:
The expected results of the Stream 1b for the 4th Annual Period correspond to the tasks described in the Technical Papers and the Deliverables planned for this period.
WP1:
· Implementation of the new modules of dispersion modelling in EcoSenseWeb and geographic extension.
WP2
· Methodological improvements for the assessment of external costs due to indirect human exposure
through ingestion and due to further substances so far unaddressed. Implementation of parametrised results in EcoSenseWeb.
WP3
· finished
WP4
· finished
WP5
· Report on marginal external damage costs of greenhouse gas emissions for different value choices
WP6
· finished
WP7
· Geographical extension of the software tools
· Implementation of new and updated data
· Methodology for the assessment of the quality and consistency of results, Report on the methodology for the consideration of uncertainties
· Methodology for the implementation of the precautionary principle in external costs estimations
· Provision of tools for the detailed site-dependent assessment of external costs
· Ensure consistency of work within the stream and with other research streams.
WP8
· An interface between external cost computation and different types of models and its implementation into the energy system model
· Interface between external cost computation and LCA approach and data
· The design of the energy system model integrating this modelling framework to be used in policy scenarios
· Application of the developed model to a local and a multi national policy question to evaluate the
methodology defined.
D1 / Analytical overview of the technical and scientific production of the stream 1b / USTUTT.TFU
TP 1.2 / T1.2 Report on deliveries of source-receptor matrices with the regional EMEP Unified model / MET.NO
TP 1.3 / Report on Sub-grid atmospheric dispersion models / 1 / AUTH
D2.1 / Methodological improvements for the assessment of external costs due to indirect human exposure through ingestion and due to further substances so far unaddressed. / 2 / USTUTT.TFU
Peter Fantke,
Ralph Rosenbaum,
Till Bachmann
D5.4 / Revised estimates on marginal external damage costs of greenhouse gas emissions / 5 / David Anthoff
TP7.2 / "Report on the application of the tools for innovative energy technologies" / 7 / USTUTT.TFU
TP 7.4 / Description of updated and extended draft tools for the detailed site-dependent assessment of external
costs / 7 / USTUTT.TFU
D.8.4 / “Specification of the interface for linking LCA data, external cost specification and TIMES modelling framework" / 8 / KUL
D.8.5 / "Integration of External cost data and LCA data in TIMES and application to two policy issues" / 8 / KUL
2. Scientific achievements and policy relevance (summary of the technical papers)
TITLET1.2 Report on deliveries of source-receptor matrices with the regional EMEP Unified model
WORKPACKAGE N° 1 / WP LEADER
MET.NO
CONTRIBUTING PARTNERS
Met.no
Introduction
The present methodology to estimate external costs within the NEEDS integrated assessment tool to ECOSENSE uses the WTM model, a trajectory model, to relate emissions and impacts from air pollution (so-called source-receptor relationships). This WTM model has the advantage of being very fast, but on the other hand the results are more uncertain than those of more complex models, like Eulerian models with state of the art chemical mechanisms. Therefore, the aim in NEEDS is to improve the estimation of external cost modules by coupling ECOSENSE with state of art chemical transport models as the EMEP Unified model.
Abstract
The EMEP chemical transport model is used to construct a set of source-receptor relationships at regional level, using a resolution of 50x50 km. This model has been largely used as reference in European policy applications and in combination with the integrated assessment GAINS model, has recently supported the CAFE program. In NEEDS, the EMEP Unified model supports the regional calculations with ECOSENSE.
The added value of the EMEP model calculations for NEEDS is the increased capability to define the impact of particular sources in Europe. While in GAINS the description of source-receptor calculations is carried out in a country-to-grid basis, the approaches developed for the treatment of source-receptor relationships in NEEDS will allow the allocation of effects to specific activity sectors and to specific sub-regions in Europe. These sub-regions are specifically defined for the NEEDS project and are defined by subdividing larger countries in the EMEP area according to: 1) their emissions spatial distribution, 2) possible differences in climatology and 3) where possible, administrative boundaries in the country concerned.
This technical report describes the rationale to calculate source-receptor matrices in the sub-regions and documents the associated deliveries from the EMEP model.
Structure (organization of the work)
The report consists of:
· Introduction
· Description of the EMEP Unified model
· Description of the input data used in NEEDS
· Definition of the sub-areas plus rationale
· Documentation on how the source-receptor relationships have been computed
· Overview of the data available for other partners in the project.
Conclusions
The subdivision of the larger countries into smaller areas enables a finer optimisation within ECOSENSE. Approaches to tackle non-linear effects are discussed in TP1.2 of RS3a, on the report on “Methodology to account for non-linearity of impacts depending on different background emission scenarios“.
TITLE
T1.3 – Report on Sub-grid atmospheric dispersion models AUTH
WORKPACKAGE N°1 / WP LEADER MET.NO
CONTRIBUTING PARTNERS
AUTH
Introduction
This technical paper deals with improvements that were achieved in the process of sub-grid atmospheric dispersion model application, having as a final aim the introduction of local modelling in external cost calculations. For assessing the external costs for non-marginal applications, the resolution of the regional scale models is too coarse, and a finer spatial resolution of the exposure or impact is necessary in most cases. Both for the analysis of pollution dispersion and transformation characteristics as well and for the analysis of its impact at the local scale, local modelling has to be taken into account. Usually this is done by using Gaussian models which is normally a good choice for single sources such as power plants assuming their emissions consist mainly of primary pollutants, however less appropriate for secondary pollutants (e.g. ozone and secondary aerosols).
The work in the work package focused on finding ways to improve the whole process of atmospheric modelling in order to make its application more accurate, easy and wide. Especially the latter posed a considerable challenge as the lack of suitable input data to local scale models often prevents their application at arbitrary locations.
Abstract
Sub-grid atmospheric dispersion models are an important tool for the assessment of transport and chemical transformation of pollutants emmited in the atmosphere and should ideally be included in external cost estimations, combined with hemispheric and regional scale approaches. Two of the most important problems in local scale modelling at arbitrary locations are i) how to distinguish between complex and non-complex areas in terms of terrain, in order to take into account this information when performing dispersion calculations ii) how to get hold of meteorological data in order to feed local scale dispersion calculations. The development of two independent computational tools for these two purposes has provided the capability for the application of local scale models in the best possible way essentially at any location, provided suitable elevation data meteorological data from larger scale models are available.
Structure (organization of the work)
The chapters of the technical paper are:
· Introduction
· A computational tool to estimate terrain complexity
· A computational tool to calculate meteorological input for local scale models
· Discussion and limitations
Conclusions
This technical paper describes the tools that were developed for improving local scale modelling. Those tools made possible the application of local scale models at virtually arbitrary locations in Europe and Northern Africa by assessing the complexity of the terrain and by producing meteorological input data from larger scale meteorological model runs. Test model runs have revealed that the developed methodology produced results comparable to the results of local models fed by normal ground meteorological measurements.
TITLE
D2.1 Impact Pathway Analysis via Soil and Water
- Methodological improvements for the assessment of external costs due to indirect human exposure through ingestion and due to further substances so far unaddressed.
WORKPACKAGE N° 2 / WP LEADER USTUTT.TFU
CONTRIBUTING PARTNERS / USTUTT.TFU, EPFL, Armines
Introduction
Some general objective of Stream 1.b is to further develop, improve and extend the methodology for calculating energy externalities, and in particular to improve current methods, tools and datasets (e.g. Exposure/Response functions, exposure patterns, valuation of mortality and morbidity, transport of atmospheric pollutants, etc.) as well as to analyse new impact pathways (e.g. soil, water, etc.) and to develop methodology for linking external cost estimation with economy/energy/environmental models and with LCA data.
According to the Stream 1.b objective WP 2 helps to identify important information about new impact pathways, i.e. via the environmental media soil and water, and, in addition, due to the ingestion pathway, i.e. consumption of food as well as drinking water.
Single food items, e.g. consumption of milk, have been identified to be of special concern and, thus, have been assessed in detail. Furthermore, bilateral trade between countries has been identified to play an important role within the impact pathway methodology and therefore was included into the overall analysis. As various substance groups were identified in cooperation with Stream 1.a to be relevant in the impact assessment different models were employed, each for particular use, e.g. the assessment of Heavy Metals (HMs) by means of the EcoSense multimedia extension termed WATSON.
Abstract
The improvement of the pathway from atmospheric deposition or direct emission of hazardous substances to soil and water and from there to human exposure via ingestion of food or drinking water is especially important for assessing the importance of life cycle emissions of energy conversion but also for assessing impacts from waste incineration and coal and heavy fuel oil burning. Additionally, life cycle emissions of water treatment plants as well as of agricultural practice, mainly due to fertilization, are considered. Literature reviews and sensitivity studies carried out at the EPFL and at USTUTT.TFU enabled to identify two main issues where significant improvements are needed and could be achieved within the project: the determination of biotransfer of emission into animal tissue and the modelling of trade of food leading to national, continental and global transportation of toxics in alimentation products. We will, therefore, extend the existing impact pathway approach methodology to describe human exposure via the meat and milk pathways and via marine fish consumption by European citizens. This includes improvement of the indirect exposure assessment of the impact pathway approach with respect to biotransfer in biota and to the inclusion of trade of food as well as consumption of fish from high sea catches. Furthermore, an extension of the impact pathway approach with respect to indirect exposure to hazardous substances that are not yet included in the methodology was envisaged.
Structure (organization of the work)
This document follows the structure of work package 2 (WP2) of the NEEDS research stream 1b, presenting its results and the work that has been carried out. WP2 was structured into five sub tasks, addressing 1) biotransfer in meat and milk, 2) biotransfer in fish, 3) the influence of the trade of food, 4) the extension to further substances and 5) the use of approximate models for specific substances where the multimedia modelling approach is not applicable. Hence, each of the following chapters is divided into five sub sections, corresponding to each task. These chapters are organised as follows:
§ 1st presents an introduction into the topic and puts the document and work package into the context of the NEEDS research stream 1b activities.
§ 2nd describes the new developments regarding biotransfer and market trade influences.
§ 3rd concludes the document with a short summary of the principal results and the main recommendations for application on other work packages and research streams of the NEEDS project.
§ 4th contains the appendices where further details are provided.
Conclusions
Conclusions of Task 1: We introduce here the CKow models and demonstrate that they provide a more scientifically defensible basis and significantly increased reliability in biotransfer modelling for meat and milk. By deriving the simplified regression model from the base model, we identified its key elements and assessed its validity over a wide spectrum of Kow values. Being able to address this range of organic chemical properties while retaining a model that is transparent and easy to use, the simplified regression model represents a practical improvement for assessment of human exposure through meat and milk. The value of this approach is also that it helps to understand the involved processes and their influence, while a simple polynomial fit to the measurements does not advance current knowledge.