IGA-116
Great Power Competition in the International System
Professor Nicholas Burns
Autumn 2014
T/TH 1:10 – 2:30 pm
Littauer 230
Contact:
· Professor Burns: , L374
· Alison Hillegeist, Faculty Assistant: , L372
· Anna Stansbury, Course Assistant:
· Ryan Sturgill, Course Assistant:
Office hours: T/TH 10:00 – 11:30 AM
* Office Hours sign-up sheets will be posted bi-weekly. I look forward to meet with each student. Please schedule an office hours appointment with Alison for September or October.
I will offer a course discussion hour weekly that is not mandatory. Time/day will vary throughout the semester.
COURSE DESCRIPTION
This course will focus on the future balance of power in the world and cooperation as well as competition among the Great Powers. We will study the rise of China, India and Brazil to global power in the decades ahead and assess whether these countries are prepared and willing to lead effectively. We will look closely at the changing nature of American power. In addition, we will focus on the relationship between the United States and China and their likely competition for strategic influence in the Asia-Pacific region. We will also investigate the global leadership role of the Russian Federation and European Union and power prospects for India and Brazil. The major objective of the course is to reflect on how this group of countries and other regional powers can work together to address some of the principal challenges of the new century including the avoidance of conflict in the South and East China Seas, limiting nuclear proliferation, enhancing cooperation on energy, climate change, the global economy, and dealing with the dilemma of intervention in wars in the Middle East and Africa.
ASSIGNMENTS AND GRADING
Students should commit to be well prepared for class and to engage in discussion and debate. I will encourage active class participation with cold calling as the norm. Each of you will be assigned to a team to represent one of the countries that are the focus of the course. Each team will be asked to research and make presentations in class on topics to be assigned. You are expected to abide by the University policies on academic honesty and integrity as described in the Student Handbook.
Individual Class Discussion/Participation 20%
Team Presentations 20%
Two papers on major policy issues 30%
Final Exam 30%
REQUIRED READINGS
I am assigning two books for you to purchase at the COOP or online. They are:
· Ikenberry, John G. Liberal Leviathan. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2011
· Nye, Joseph S. Jr. The Future of Power. Public Affairs; Reprint edition, 2011
In addition, I will assign other required readings for each class. Except for the above texts, all readings will be posted electronically on the course page. I will designate still other, non-mandatory readings under the rubric “For Further Exploration” for those interested in delving more deeply into particular issues. As this is a course that looks at several contemporary global issues, students are encouraged to read a major international newspaper daily and The Economist weekly, which is available for free online in the Harvard Library system (e-resources). Students are also encouraged to post articles and discussion topics and to start conversations on the course website.
COURSE CALENDAR
Tuesday, September 2 – Shopping Day
1:10 – 2:30 pm (2 sections – check HKS website for details)
L230
Thursday, September 4 – Introduction to the Course
Required readings:
· Nye, Joseph, The Future of Power. Preface ix-xviii, pp 3-109 (T)
Tuesday, September 9 – The Current World Order
Required readings:
· Ikenberry, John G., Liberal Leviathan: The Origins, Crisis and Transformation of the American World Order, pp 1-27; 35-77; 119-156; 159-219 (TEXT)
· Kissinger, Henry. Diplomacy, pp 17-28
· Walt, Stephen. “The End of the American Era,” The National Interest. Nov/Dec 2011, October 25, 2011
· Fisher, Max. “40 more maps that explain the world,” The Washington Post, January 13, 2014.
· Patrick, Stewart. “The unruled world: The case for good enough global governance,” Foreign Affairs, Jan/Feb 2014.
· Kaplan, Robert D. “Old World Order,” TIME, March 31, 2014.
· Posner, Eric, “Sorry, America, the New World Order Is Dead,” Foreign Policy, May 6, 2014
Thursday, September 11 – The Shifting Global Balance of Power
Required readings:
· Ikenberry, John. Liberal Leviathan, pp 221-277 (TEXT)
· Sharma, Ruchir. “Broken BRICs: Why the Rest Stopped Rising”Foreign Affairs, Nov/Dec 2012
· National Intelligence Defense Council, “Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds.” Executive Summary pp i – xiv
· Haass, Richard N. “The Age of Nonpolarity: What Will Follow U.S. Dominance,” Foreign Policy, May/June 2008
· Ignatius, David. “An emerging markets problem,” The Washington Post, January 22, 2014.
· Harding, Robin, Joseph Leahy and Lucy Hornby, “Emerging Economies: Taking a Stand”, Financial Times, July 16th 2014
For further exploration:
· Schweller, Randall. “Global Insights: Emerging Powers in an Age of Disorder,” Global Governance 17 (2011), 285-297.
Tuesday, September 16 – China’s Rise to Global Power
Required readings:
· “What China Wants,” The Economist, August 23, 2014
· “Everybody who loves Mr Xi, say yes,” The Economist, November 16, 2013.
· Wang, Jisi, “China’s Search for a Grand Strategy,” Foreign Affairs, March/April 2011
· Shambaugh, David, “Coping with a Conflicted China,” The Washington Quarterly, Winter 2011
· Nye, The Future of Power, pp 177-186 (TEXT)
· Subramanian, Arvind. “The Inevitable Superpower: Why China’s Dominance is a Sure Thing,” Foreign Affairs, September/October 2011
· Xinhau, Report of Xi Jinping’s address to the third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee in Beijing, Nov 12, 2013
· Li, Xin & Verner Worm. “Building China’s Soft Power for a Peaceful Rise,” Journal of Chinese Political Science, 2011 16: 69-89.
· “Can China Lead? Reaching the Limits of Growth and Power” by Bill Kirby, Regina Abrami, and F. Warren McFarlan, (Harvard Business Review Press: 2014), Chapter 1: The Myths and Making of Modern China; Chapter 3: The Engineering State; Chapter 6: Global China
For further exploration:
· Kaplan, Robert. “The Geography of Chinese Power.” Foreign Affairs, May/June 2010
· Kissinger, Henry. “On China,” pp 1-3, 5-32
· Documents from the Third Plenary Session of 18th CPC Central Committee.
· Roasa, Dustin. “China’s Soft Power Surge,” Foreign Policy, November 18, 2012
· Mahbubani, Kishore. “The Chinese Century,” American Review, Issue Two, May-October 2010
· Sharma, Ruchir, “China’s illusory growth numbers,” The Wall Street Journal Asia, Nov 1, 2013.
· Xi Jinping's speech at opening ceremony of Boao Forum, “Working Together Toward a Better Future for Asia and the World,” April 7, 2013.
Thursday, September 18 – The Future of American Power in the 21st Century
Required readings:
· Nye, Joseph. The Future of Power, pages 187-204 (TEXT)
· Edelman, Eric D., “The Declinist Persuasion”, from “Understanding America’s Contested Primacy”, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments”, pages 17-30. 2011
· Brzezinski, Zbigniew. Strategic Vision: America and the Crisis of Global Power,” New York: 2012. pp 37-74
· Joffe, Josef. “Not Dead Yet,” American Review, May-October, 2010
· Zakaria, Fareed. “Inside Obama's World: The President talks to TIME About the Changing Nature of American Power,” Time Magazine, January 19, 2012
· Colby, Elbridge and Paul Lettow, “Have we hit Peak America?”, Foreign Policy, July 3rd 2014
For further exploration:
· Beckley, Michael. "China's Century: Will America's Edge Endure?", International Security, Winter 2011
· Lieber, Robert J. "Staying Power and the American Future: Problems of Primacy, Policy and Grand Strategy", Journal of Strategic Studies, August 2011
· “Notes on the Decline of a Great Nation,” Der Spiegel, November 5, 2012
· Walt, Stephen M. “Power and decline: Why other countries ought to envy the United States,” Foreign Policy, October 1, 2012
Tuesday, September 23 – Emerging Power: Brazil
Required readings:
· “The Bets that Failed”, The Economist, March 20th 2014
· Statement by H. E. Dilma Rousseff, President of the Federative Republic Of Brazil, the Opening of the General Debate of the 68th Session of the United Nations General Assembly, September 24, 2013.
· Amorim, Celso. “Hardening Brazil’s Soft Power,” Project Syndicate, July 16, 2013.
· “Has Brazil blown it?” The Economist, September 28, 2013.
· “Global Brazil and U.S.-Brazil Relations”, Council on Foreign Relations, Independent Task Force Report No. 66, 2011, pages 8-63
· Hakim, Peter. “Inter-American Discord: Brazil and the United States,” publication of the Inter-American Dialogue, October 22, 2012
· Sotero, Paulo. “Brazil’s Rising Ambition in a Shifting Global Balance of Power,” Politics: 2010 Vol 30(S1), 71–81.
For further exploration:
· Amorim, Celso. “Brazilian foreign policy under President Lula (2003-2010): an overview.” 2010, vol.53, pp. 214-240
· Amorim, Celso. “Brazil and the Middle East: Reflections on Lula’s South-South
Cooperation,” The Cairo Review of Global Affairs, Summer 2011, pp 48-63
· Lewis, David. “Special Report: In Africa, Can Brazil be the Anti-China?” Reuters, Feb 23, 2011
· Herz, Monica, Major Powers and the Quest for Status in International Politics, "Brazil: Major Power in the Making," Basingstoke, Hampshire: Palgrave Publishers (2011), pp. 159-179
· Hurrell, Andrew, Rising States, Rising Institutions: Challenges for Global Governance, "Brazil: What Kind of Rising State in What Kind of Institutional Order?”, Washington : Brookings Institution Press (2010), pp. 128-150
Thursday, September 25 – Emerging Power: India
Guest speaker: Shivshankar Menon, former National Security Advisorto Prime MinisterManmohan Singh and fomer Foreign Secretary
Required readings:
· “Modi as Prime Minister,” The Economist, August 15, 2014
· Cassidy, John, “What Does Modi’s Victory Mean for the World?,” The New Yorker, May 16, 2014
· Thottam, Jyoti. “Two Indias,” The New York Times, September 6, 2013.
· Sunil Khilnani, Rajiv; Kumar, Pratap Bhanu Mehta; Lt. Gen. (Retd.) Prakash Menon; Nandan Nilekani; Srinath Raghavan; Shyam Saran; Siddharth Varadarajan. “Nonalignment 2.0: A Foreign and Strategic Policy for India in the Twenty First Century,” January 2012.
· Mehta, Pratap Bhanu. “How India Stumbled.” Foreign Affairs, July/August 2012
· Kaplan, Robert. D, Monsoon, Chapter 7: “The View from Delhi,” pp. 119-134
· Burns, Nicholas. “Passage to India,” Foreign Affairs, Sept/Oct 2014
· Malik, Mohan. “Asia’s Great Naval Rivalry,” Wall Street Journal, September 5, 2011
· Ciorciari, John D. “India's Approach to Great-Power Status,” The Fletcher Forum of World Affairs, Vol. 35:1 Winter 2011
· “Reform by numbers.” The Economist. January 14, 2012.
For further exploration:
· Robinson, David A. “ India’s Rise as a Great Power, Part One: Regional and Global Implications,” Future Directions International Associate Paper, July 7, 2011
· Robinson, David A. “ India’s Rise as a Great Power, Part Two: The Pakistan-China-India Dynamic,” Future Directions International Associate Paper, July 14, 2011
· Kurlantzick, Joshua. “Team Democracy?,” The Boston Globe, December 16, 2012
· Ganguly, Sumit. “Think Again: India’s Rise.” Foreign Policy, July 2012.
· An in-depth profile on Modi by Vinod Jose, “The Emperor Uncrowned: The rise of Narendra Modi,” Caravan, 1 March 2012
Tuesday, September 30 – Declining Power?: European Union
Required readings:
· “The Eurosceptic Union”, The Economist, May 29th 2014
· World Economic Forum (Davos) 2014: speech by David Cameron
· Ash, Timothy Garton. “The Crisis of Europe: How the Union Came Together and Why It’s Falling Apart,” Foreign Affairs, Sept/Oct 2012
· Transcript of speech by Secretary of Defense Robert Gates on NATO’s Future, Wall Street Journal, June 10, 2011
· Rasmussen, Anders Fogh. “NATO After Libya,” Foreign Affairs, July/August 2011
· “Europe – cultural identity – cultural diversity,” Speech by Mr Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank, at the CFS Presidential Lecture, Center for Financial Studies, March 16, 2009.
· Talbott, Strobe. “Monnet’s Brandy & Europe’s Fate,” Brookings Institution, February 2014.
For further exploration:
· “Tough talk, no strategy: Europe needs to do more than respond to every problem with fresh sanctions,” The Economist, March 3, 2012
· “Staring into the abyss,” The Economist, November 12, 2011
· Peel, Quentin. “Angela Merkel: a woman of power.” Financial Times, December 2012.
· June 24, 2009 speech by David Miliband, “European Renewal amidst Global Adversity.”
· "Europe Forecasts ‘Mild Recession’ for Euro Zone in 2012," The New York Times, February 23, 2012
· "A way out of the woods," The Economist, February 18, 2012
· "China Considers Offering Aid in Europe’s Debt Crisis," The New York Times, February 2, 2012
· "The end of Monnet," The Economist, September 3, 2011
· “Goodbye Europe.” The Economist, December, 8 2012.
· Forbrig, Joerg. “Europe’s failure on Ukraine: Three lessons,” EU Observer, November 27, 2013
Thursday, October 2 – Declining Power?: Russian Federation
Required readings:
· Dmitri Trenin, “The Ukraine Crisis and the Resumption of Great Power Rivalry,” Carnegie Moscow Center, July 9, 2014
· Vladimir Putin, “Presidential Address to the Federal Assembly”
· “Russia and the Independent Heartland (Chapter 10)” from Robert Kaplan, “The Revenge of Geography”
· John Mearsheimer, “Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West’s Fault,” September/October 2014
· Putin, Vladimir. “A plea for caution from Russia,” The New York Times, September 11, 2013
· Tsygankov, Andrei P. “Russia’s Power and Alliances in the 21st Century,” Politics: 2010, Vol 30, 43-51
· Eberstadt, Nicholas. “The Dying Bear: Russia's Demographic Disaster,” Foreign Affairs, Nov/Dec 2011
· Lieven, Anatol, “U.S.-Russian Relations and the Rise of China”, New America Foundation, July 11, 2011
· Shleifer, Andrei and Daniel Treisman, “Why Moscow Says No,” Foreign Affairs, Jan/Feb 2011
· Smith, Meredith. “Europe Losing Battle of Influence with Russia,” Foreign Policy Journal, September 23, 2013
For further exploration
· “Just making our feelings known,” The Economist, Feb 11, 2012
· David Francis, “How NATO Could Confront the Putin Doctrine,” Foreign Policy, August 26, 2014,
· Daniel Treisman, “Watching Putin in Moscow: What Russians Think of the Intervention in Ukraine,” Foreign Affairs, March 5, 2014
Tuesday, October 7 – Energy
Guest speaker: Meghan O’Sullivan, Jeane Kirkpatrick Professor of the Practice of International Affairs