Florida Keys Carrying Capacity Study Process and Lessons Learned

Florida Keys Carrying Capacity Study--Process and Lessons Learned

Deborah H. Peterson

U. S. Army Corps of Engineers, JacksonvillePalm Bay, FL

Ricardo N. Calvo

URS Corporation, Tampa, FL

The Florida Keys have long been recognized at local, state and national levels as ecologically rich, culturally significant and environmentally sensitive. The Florida Keys were designated as an Area of State Critical Concern in 1974. Legal challenges to the Monroe County Comprehensive Plan resulted in Florida Administration Commission (FAC) Rule 28-20.100, which included the completion of the Florida Keys Carrying Capacity Study (FKCCS). The goal of the FKCCS, excerpted from FAC 28-20.100, is “to determine the ability of the Florida Keys ecosystem, and the various segments thereof, to withstand all impacts of additional land development activities.” The FAC Rule further stated: “The carrying capacity analysis shall consider aesthetic, socioeconomic (including sustainable tourism), quality of life and community character issues, including the concentration of population, the amount of open space, diversity of habitats, and species richness.”

The purpose of the FKCCS was to provide an information database and an analysis of consequences (a tool) that could be used to determine the level of land development activities that would avoid further adverse impacts to the Florida Keys. The local governments would use the tool to determine if and how their Comprehensive Plans should be amended. The Carrying Capacity Impact Assessment Model (CCIAM) was developed to be that tool. The CCIAM is a spatially explicit, Geographic Information Systems based, automated computer model that evaluates end-state effects of land development, redevelopment and/or restoration activities on the Florida Keys ecosystem, including impacts on socio-economics, fiscal and human infrastructure.

Carrying capacity studies are on the cutting-edge of ecological and environmental science. Including analyses of socio-economics, fiscal and human infrastructure further complicates an already complex, cutting-edge study. The CCIAM was coded specifically for the Florida Keys ecosystem, however, the process used to develop the FKCCS and the CCIAM could be applicable to other areas, considering each unique environmental, socio-economic, fiscal, infrastructure and spatially explicit condition of the specific study area.

Many lessons were learned during the development of the FKCCS and CCIAM, which are valuable for others that may undertake development of a carrying capacity impact assessment study or model, as well as any other type of study or modeling effort. Some of the lessons learned include adaptation and incorporation of datasets and databases developed for other studies or projects, melodramatic press coverage, stakeholder involvement and input, public outreach, and expectation management.

Peterson, Deborah H., U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 525 Community College Parkway, S.E., Palm Bay, FL 32909, Phone: 904-614-5064, Fax: 321-984-4937, .