20 September 2012
The full report is available from www.daff.gov.au/abares
Summary of key issues
· Rainfall of up to 25 millimetres has been recorded across grain growing regions of southern and eastern Australia this week. These falls are likely to benefit grain production in most areas.
· Water storages in the Murray Darling Basin are currently sitting at 98 per cent of total capacity which is 11 percentage points higher than at the same time last year.
· Much of Western Australia and western Queensland is likely to receive more than the median rainfall between October and December 2012 in combination with warmer temperatures.
· Drier and warmer than normal conditions are more likely across south-eastern Australia between October and December 2012.
· The world wheat indicator price (US no. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$377 a tonne in the week ending 18 September 2012, compared with US$365 a tonne in the previous week.
· The world coarse grains indicator price (US no. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$323 a tonne for the week ending 19 Sep 2012, compared with US$326 a tonne in the previous week.
· The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$666 a tonne in the week ending 18 September 2012, compared with US$660 a tonne in the previous week.
· The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) averaged $550 a tonne in the week ending 17 September 2012, compared with $530 a tonne in the previous week.
· The Queensland young cattle indicator price (330-400 kg live weight C3) fell 7 per cent to 343 cents a kilogram in the week ending 14 September 2012.
· The lamb indicator price (18-22kg fat score 2-4) declined by 13 per cent in Victoria, 9 per cent in New South Wales, 8 per cent in South Australia and 4 per cent in Western Australia in the week ending 14 September 2012.
1. Climate
1.1. Notable events
· This week, rainfall of up to 25 millimetres has been recorded across grain growing regions of southern and eastern Australia. The falls are likely to benefit grain production in most areas, particularly the Victorian Mallee and northern parts of the Western Australia grain belt, which have experienced hot and windy conditions in recent weeks. As crops in these areas have experienced losses in yield potential due to the recent dry conditions, additional rainfall will be required to alleviate further losses in yield potential.
· Rainfall in parts of central Queensland during the week has provided some relief for pastoralists, following dryer than normal conditions during August and a dry start to September 2012 for the region.
· Warmer than normal waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean indicate the October to December 2012 period is likely to be dryer than normal over large parts of southeast Australia, while western parts of Western Australia and southwest Queensland are likely to experience wetter than normal conditions (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Seasonal Rainfall Outlook 19September 2012).
· Persistently warmer than normal waters in the Indian Ocean are likely to influence temperatures from October to December 2012 with warmer than normal days and nights expected over most of Australia (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Seasonal Rainfall Outlook 19September 2012).
1.2. Rainfall this week
For the week ending 19 September 2012, little or no rainfall was recorded across much of northern and central Australia. A cold front produced rain in south-east Australia in the earlier part of the week, with thunderstorm activity bringing rain to parts of New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia. The highest total recorded rainfall for the week was 74 mm at Mount Read in western Tasmania. For further information, go to www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/weeklyrain.shtml.
Rainfall for the week ending 19 September 2012
1.3. Temperature anomalies this week
Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum from the long-term average. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards. For further information on temperature anomalies, go to www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/.
Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 18 September 2012
Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 18 September 2012
1.4. Rainfall outlook
The rainfall forecast below is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to also check local forecasts and warnings by the Bureau of Meteorology.
Total forecast rainfall for the period 20 to 27 September 2012
1.5. Seasonal outlook
Chance of exceeding the median rainfall – October to December 2012
Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature – October to December 2012
Chance of exceeding the median minimum temperature – October to December 2012
2. Water
2.1. Water availability
· Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin increased by 105gigalitres(GL) this week and are at 98 per cent of total capacity. This is 11 percentage points or 2406 GL more than this time last year.
Water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)
Information on irrigation water available in the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 20September2012 is shown above. The top horizontal (red) line indicates the storage level at the similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (orange) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.
2.2. Water allocations
The current water allocations for the 2012–13 water trading season for licence holders in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia water systems are summarised in the following table.
/ Allocations at12 September 2012 (%) / Allocations at
17 September 2012 (%) /
NSW Murray Valley
High security / 100 / 100
General security / 100* / 100*
NSW Murrumbidgee Valley
High security / 95 / 95
General security / 64* / 64*
NSW Lower Darling
High security / 100 / 100
General security / 100* / 100*
NSW Macquarie Valley
High security / 100 / 100
General security / 57* / 57*
NSW Hunter Valley
High security / 100 / 100
General security / 100 / 100
NSW Lachlan Valley
High security / 100 / 100
General security / 0* / 0*
NSW Lower Namoi
High security / 100 / 100
General security / 14* / 14*
NSW Upper Namoi
High security / 100 / 100
General security / 100* / 100*
NSW Gwydir Valley
High security / 100 / 100
General security / 49* / 49*
NSW Border Rivers
High security / 100 / 100
General security / 100 / 100
NSW Peel Valley
High security / 100 / 100
General security / 78* / 78*
Victoria Murray Valley
High reliability / 61 / 75
Low reliability / 0 / 0
Victoria Goulburn
High reliability / 100 / 100
Low reliability / 0 / 0
Victoria Campaspe
High reliability / 100 / 100
Low reliability / 54 / 54
Victoria Loddon
High reliability / 100 / 100
Low reliability / 0 / 0
Victoria Bullarook
High reliability / 100 / 100
Low reliability / 100 / 100
Victoria Broken
High reliability / 44 / 45
Low Reliability / 0 / 0
South Australia Murray Valley
High security / 100 / 100
*Carryover water may also be available.
3. Commodities
3.1. Production and commodities
· The world wheat indicator price (US no. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$377 a tonne in the week ending 18 September 2012, compared with US$365 a tonne in the previous week.
· The world coarse grains indicator price (US no. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$323 a tonne for the week ending 19 Sep 2012, compared with US$326 a tonne in the previous week.
· The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$666 a tonne in the week ending 18 September 2012, compared with US$660 a tonne in the previous week.
· The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) averaged US 84.1 cents a pound in the week ending 19 September 2012, 1.3 per cent lower than in the previous week.
· The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no. 11 contract) averaged US19.6 cents a pound in the week ending 19 September 2012, 1.2 per cent higher than in the previous week.
· The Brazil Sugar Growers Association and the Federal Government of Brazil have agreed to raise the anhydrous ethanol blend in gasoline from 20 per cent to 25 per cent from the beginning of 2013.
· The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) averaged $550 a tonne in the week ending 17 September 2012, compared with $530 a tonne in the previous week.
· The wholesale prices of fruit were generally lower or unchanged in the week ending 15 September 2012. The wholesale prices of watermelon (seedless), rockmelon, strawberry and banana (cavendish) were all lower while pineapple and kiwifruit prices were largely unchanged.
· The wholesale prices of vegetables were generally lower in the week ending 15 September 2012. The wholesale prices of iceberg lettuce, onions (brown), broccoli and cauliflower wholesale prices were all lower. However, pumpkin (grey bulk) and tomato (field gourmet) prices increased significantly, because of low supply from the major producing regions in Queensland. The low supply follows unusually cold conditions in key growing regions in Queensland.
· The Queensland young cattle indicator price (330-400 kg live weight C3) fell 7 per cent to 343 cents a kilogram in the week ending 14 September 2012.
· Saleyard lamb prices declined in all states in the week ending 14 September 2012. The lamb indicator price (18-22kg fat score 2-4) declined by 13 per cent in Victoria, 9 per cent in New South Wales, 8 per cent in South Australia and 4 per cent in Western Australia. Total saleyard throughput was 10 per cent lower than the previous week.
· The Australian Eastern Market Indicator price for wool rose 3 per cent in the week ending 13 September 2012 to 958 cents a kilogram clean. This price rise follows consecutive declines over the previous 6 sales. The total number of bales offered declined by 10 per cent compared with the previous week and was the second smallest offering this season.
3.2. Recent movements in fruit and vegetable prices
Weekly wholesale prices for selected fruit, Melbourne market
Weekly wholesale prices for selected vegetables, Melbourne market
3.3. Selected world indicator prices
3.4. Crop indicator prices
3.5. Livestock indicator prices
4. Data attribution
Climate
Bureau of Meteorology
· Weekly rainfall totals: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp
· Monthly and last 3-months rainfall percentiles: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/
· Temperature anomalies: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/
· Rainfall forecast: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp
· Seasonal outlook: www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead
· Drought statement: www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/drought.shtml
· ENSO Wrap-Up: www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
· Soil moisture (BoM, CSIRO and the former Bureau of Rural Sciences): www.eoc.csiro.au/awap/
Water
New South Wales
· New South Wales Water Information: http://waterinfo.nsw.gov.au/
· New South Wales Office of Water, Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water: www.water.nsw.gov.au/Home/default.aspx
· Available water determinations register: www.wix.nsw.gov.au/wma/DeterminationSearch.jsp?selectedRegister=Determination
· Snowy Hydro: www.snowyhydro.com.au/lakeLevels.asp?pageID=47&parentID=61&grandParentID=4
Queensland
· Sunwater: www.sunwater.com.au
· seqwater: http://seqwater.com.au
South Australia
· SA Water: www.sawater.com.au/SAWater/Environment/TheRiverMurray/River+Murray+Levels.htm
· South Australian Department of Water: www.waterforgood.sa.gov.au/
Victoria
· Goulburn–Murray Water: www.g-mwater.com.au
Water trading
· Waterexchange: www.waterexchange.com.au
Commodities
Fruit and vegetables
· Datafresh: www.datafresh.com.au
Mutton, lambs, wheat, barley and grain sorghum
· The Land: hardcopy or online at http://theland.farmonline.com.au/markets.aspx
Cattle, mutton, lambs and pigs
· Meat and Livestock Australia: www.mla.com.au/Prices-and-markets
Canola
· Weekly Times: hardcopy