PEACE INDEX - JUNE 2001

Ephraim Yaar and Tamar Hermann

The Tami Steinmetz Center for Peace Research

Tel Aviv University

In light of the central role played by the settlements in the effort to bring about a cessation of the violence and a resumption of the political negotiations, we have focused this month's Peace Index on the positions of the Israeli Jewish public regarding a number of key aspects of Jewish settlements in the territories. The findings are complex: the Jewish public greatly identifies with the settlers and their suffering on the emotional level (for instance: personal feelings about terrorist attacks are the same, whether these occur inside or beyond the Green Line), and on the practical level (for instance: accepting the settlers' claim that the government is not doing enough to protect them). What is more, most of the public supports the view that the erection of the settlements was historically justified, and that they moreover contribute to Israel's national interest at the present time. The public, however, does not consider Israel's interests to be wholly identified with the ensemble of the settlers' actions or with the existence of all the settlements. There is thus widespread opposition to the possibility that the settlers will be allowed to do whatever they feel is necessary to protect themselves. Most of the public moreover supports an evacuation of the settlements in the context of a unilateral separation, in order to create a buffer zone between Israel and the Palestinians, including the use of force against settlers who oppose an evacuation based on the separation plan. A large group, albeit not a majority, now also opposes the evacuation of all the settlements, if their presence constitutes the last impediment to a permanent agreement with the Palestinians. These are the findings of the Peace Index conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, June 26-27.

To state these findings in greater detail: How should the government respond to attacks inside and beyond the Green Line? 70% feel that it should respond with equal severity to attacks in the territories and inside the Green Line; 12% feel the government should respond with greater severity to attacks in the territories, and a similar percentage feel that greater severity is called for in responding to attacks inside the Green Line. Asked about their personal feelings in the face of terrorist attacks beyond and inside the Green Line, 72% responded that their emotions were the same with regard to attacks entailing casualties in the territories, as attacks resulting in casualties inside the Green Line. Segmentation of replies according to votes in the prime ministerial elections reveal that this sentiment is shared by a majority of respondents -- both Sharon and Barak voters, as well as voters in the various parties. Certain differences, however, exist with regard to party votes: while 61% of Meretz voters state that their emotions are the same regardless of where the attacks occur, this feeling is shared by 66% of Labor voters, 81% of Likud voters and 84% of SHAS voters.

General support of settlements in the territories is reflected in replies to the following questions: "Given the present-day reality, do the settlements contribute, or fail to contribute to strengthening the national interest?" 58% believe that the settlements in effect make a great or fair contribution to the national interest, whereas 33% feel that settlements weaken the national interest (9% have no opinion on the subject.) Asked: "In retrospect, were Israel's various governments right, or wrong, to permit--and even encourage--the establishment of settlements in the territories?" 63% of the general public feel that the various governments were right to permit and encourage establishment of the settlements; 29% feel that they were wrong, and 8% don't know. As anticipated, considerable differences exist between the political camps on this issue: 71% of Sharon voters estimate that the establishment of the settlements was the right thing to do, and only 18% consider it wrong. On the other hand, only 41% of Barak voters, with hindsight, feel that to establish the settlements was right, while a majority of 53% believes it was wrong. Segmentation according to political parties indicates that Meretz is the only party with a majority believing that the establishment of the settlements was not justified, albeit a minority of over one third of this party believes that to establish and encourage the establishment of the settlements was the right policy.

Solidarity with the settlements is also evident in the split replies to the following: "How do you feel about the settlers' contentions that the government is not doing enough to protect them?" Thus 68% of the general public feel that this contention is justified, and 27% feel that it is not. (5% have no clear opinion on the subject). A finding of particular interest in this respect reveals that a large majority -- 77% -- of persons who voted for Sharon in the last elections believes that the government under his leadership has failed to provide the settlers with sufficient protection. Barak voters, on the other hand, are split into two equal camps of approx. 46% each, one of which feels that the government is not supplying sufficient protection, against 45% who disagree with this view.

As stated, expressions of solidarity notwithstanding, public opinion is not fully congruent in its perceptions of the settlers and Israel's national interest. Thus 61% of respondents are opposed to the settlers' receiving a "green light" from the government and the army to do whatever they wish to protect themselves, against one third of respondents who support such a move. The tendency to oppose the move is shared by both camps, albeit to differing extents. Thus 53% of Sharon voters are opposed to a "green light" for the settlers, and 40% are in favor. The parallel numbers among Barak voters are 76% and 20% respectively. In other words, while the public understands the settlers' security needs, it has evinced a conspicuous inclination, already noted by us on previous occasions, to leave security matters in the hands of the competent authorities, and refrain from creating an opening for illegal actions.

Nor does the public's solidarity with the settlers prevent its recognition of the political obstacle they are likely to constitute under certain circumstances: 54% support, or strongly support an evacuation of the settlements in the context of a unilateral separation plan, which in itself enjoys widespread support -- to create an effective buffer zone between Israel and the Palestinians, while 38% are opposed to an evacuation. Furthermore, a majority -- albeit not large -- believes that the government is entitled to evacuate the settlers, even by the use of force, if they resist evacuation. Support of an evacuation by force is expressed by 52%, and opposition to evacuation stands at 42%.

While a majority, as stated, supports evacuating a part of the settlements without an agreement and in the context of a unilateral separation, no such majority exists for evacuating all the settlements, even if this were to make a lasting agreement possible. Identical with last month's findings, 40% agree to an evacuation of all the settlements if a peace agreement with the Palestinians depends only on such a move. 52% oppose a full evacuation, even in return for an agreement.

How does the public assess the willingness of the settlers to vacate their homes in return for suitable compensation, and to what extent does the public support the granting of generous financial assistance to settlers who are prepared to leave? Only 12% estimate that all, or most of the settlers would be prepared to leave in return for adequate compensation. About one quarter of the public believes that half the settlers are ready to leave their homes, and a little over one half of the public-- 52% -- believe that only a minority, or none of the settlers is prepared to leave. In other words, according to the prevailing estimate, there is no sweeping inclination towards mass evacuation in return for suitable financial compensation -- not even in light of the bad security situation there. At the same time, there is evidence of extremely wide-spread support for granting financial assistance to any one prepared to leave -- 71% support such assistance, against 20% who oppose it. We found no significant disparities between the voters in the various parties where this issue is concerned.

In conclusion, the general public appears, for the most part, to identify with the settlers, and understands their security needs. It moreover acknowledges the essential nature of the settlements to the national interest. However, a considerable portion relates to the instrumental contribution made by the settlements, and thus a majority agrees to an evacuation of some of the settlements in the context of a unilateral separation, and a sizeable minority is moreover prepared to evacuate, or perhaps sacrifice, all the settlements for the sake of a lasting peace agreement.

Israeli Jewish sample / the entire Israeli sample
49.4 / 51.7 / General Peace Index
30.8 / 35.4 / Oslo index
30.6 / 35.6 / Syria Index

The peace index project was conducted by the Tami Steinmetz Center for Peace Research at Tel Aviv University, headed by Prof. Ephraim Yaar and Dr. Tamar Hermann. The telephone interviews were conducted by the "Mahshov" Institute on 26-27 June 2001, and comprise 575 respondents representing the adult Jewish and Arab population of this country (including West Bank and the kibbutzim). Margin of error in a sample of this size is estimate at 4.5%.

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PERMANENT QUESTIONS ON THE GENERAL PEACE INDEX

  1. Do you believe or not believe that in the coming years there will be peace between Israel and the Arabs? (to the Arabs: between Israel and the Arab States)

Jews / Jews +Arabs
1. Certain there will be peace / 5.1 / 7.3
2. Think there will be peace / 17.0 / 18.8
3. In the middle / 4.6 / 4.7
4. Think there will not be peace / 27.9 / 27.1
5. Certain there will not be peace / 42.6 / 39.7
6. Don’t know/no opinion / 2.8 / 2.4
  1. In general, do you consider yourself a supporter or opponent of the peace process between Israel and the Arabs? (to the Arabs: between Israel and the Arab States)

Jews / Jews +Arabs
1. Greatly opposed / 9.3 / 9.6
2. Somewhat opposed / 12.1 / 10.6
3. In the middle / 6.5 / 7.0
4. Somewhat supportive / 26.9 / 24.5
5. Greatly supportive / 42.4 / 45.9
6. Don’t know/no opinion / 2.8 / 2.4

PERMANENT QUESTIONS ON THE OSLO INDEX

  1. What is your opinion on the agreement that was signed in Oslo between Israel and the PLO (Agreement of Principles)?

Jews / Jews +Arabs
1. Heavily in favor / 7.7 / 12.0
2. Somewhat in favor / 21.4 / 21.0
3. In the middle / 13.1 / 13.7
4. Somewhat opposed / 10.7 / 10.3
5. Heavily opposed / 35.8 / 32.7
6. Don’t know/no opinion / 11.3 / 10.3
  1. Do you believe or not believe that the Oslo Agreement between Israel and the PLO will bring about peace between Israel and the Palestinians in the coming years?

Jews / Jews +Arabs
1. Greatly believe / 3.4 / 5.9
2. Somewhat believe / 13.1 / 15.3
3. In the middle / 11.3 / 11.7
3. Somewhat don’t believe / 13.7 / 15.3
4. Certainly don’t believe / 49.7 / 43.8
5. Don’t know/no opinion / 8.9 / 8.0

PERMANENT QUESTIONS ON THE SYRIAN INDEX

  1. Do you believe or not believe that in the coming years there will be peace between Israel and Syria?

Jews
/ Jews +Arabs
1. Certain there will be peace / 3.4 / 5.4
2. Think there will be peace / 23.4 / 25.2
3. In the middle / 9.3 / 9.7
4. Think there will not be peace / 20.2 / 20.0
5. Certain there will not be peace / 36.0 / 32.9
6. Don’t know/no opinion / 7.7 / 6.8
  1. What is your position regarding support for a full peace treaty between Israel and Syria in exchange for withdrawal from the Golan Heights?

Jews
/ Jews +Arabs
1. Greatly in favor / 4.6 / 11.8
2. Somewhat in favor / 18.8 / 18.1
3. In the middle / 8.5 / 8.3
4. Somewhat opposed / 13.5 / 12.2
5. Greatly opposed / 48.5 / 44.0
6. Don’t know/no opinion / 6.1 / 5.6

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