Practice

Inductive and Deductive Reasoning
Martin Kozloff

Sir John Bagot Glubb(born 16 April 1897,died 17 March 1986) examined 11 examples of empires that no longer existed. Why had they disappeared? That is, what factors predicted or went along with their disappearance?

The Fate of Empires and Search forSurvival

He used inductive reasoning: He
1. Examined each example and identified its features. Basically a list of facts.
2. Compared and contrasted examples to identify how they were the same and how they were
different. Basically, he compared and contrasted facts on each example.
3. Figured out (reasoned) that the ways they were the same was probably WHY they all no
longer existed, and the ways they were different (e.g., time in history, size, culture, political
system) was probably not the cause of why they no longer existed.

4. Stated his conclusions as generalizations about the whole class of 11 former empires.
a. Empires have a period of greatness that lasts about 250 years. Categorical rule.

Things that are civilizations are in the class of things that last about 250 years.

b. Empiresrise and fall through a sequence of 6 stages. Categorical rule.

c. The six stages of empires are:…. List.

d. Period in history, geography, language, size, religion, and political system do not cause
the decline of civilizations. Causal rule.
e. The features of a civilization in the stage of decadence are:….. List.
f. Whenever civilizations are characterized bya long a period of wealth and power,
selfishnesslove of money, and the loss of a sense of duty, they enter the stage of
decadence. Causal rule.

Here are the eleven former civilizations.

Civilizations / Common Features
Assyria 859-612 B.C. 247
Persia 538-330 B.C. 208
(Cyrus and his descendants)
Greece 331-100 B.C. 231
(Alexander and his successors)
Roman Republic 260-27 B.C. 233
Roman Empire 27 B.C.-A.D. 180 207
Arab Empire A.D. 634-880 246
Mameluke Empire 1250-1517 267
Ottoman Empire 1320-1570 250
Spain 1500-1750 250
Romanov Russia 1682-1916 234
Britain 1700-1950 250
The Fate Of Empires and Search For Survival
Sir John Glubb. William Blackwood & Sons Ltd.
Edinburgh, Scotland
© J. B. G. Ltd, 1976, 1977 / Average length of national greatness is 250 years.
The stages of the rise and fall of great nations seem to be:
The Age of Pioneers (outburst)
The Age of Conquests
The Age of Commerce
The Age of Affluence
The Age of Intellect
The Age of Decadence.
a. Decadence is marked by:
Defensiveness
Pessimism
Materialism
Frivolity
An influx of foreigners
The Welfare State
A weakening of religion.
b. Decadence follows
Too long a period of wealth and power
Selfishness
Love of money
The loss of a sense of duty.

So, using inductive reasoning, we go from things that are particular to knowledge statements that are general (about the particulars—lists, categorical connections, causal connections).

What about deductive reasoning. Using deductive reasoning, we go from knowledge statements that are general to predictions about things that are particular.

If X, then Y. If it is a civilization, it will go through 6 stages.

America is a civilization.

Therefore….

If X, then Y. If a civilization is characterized by defensiveness, pessimism, materialism, frivolity, an influx of foreigners, the Welfare State, and a weakening of religion, then it is in the stage of decadence.

America is (?) characterized by…

Therefore, America is (?)

If X, then Y. When a civilization is in the stage of decadence, it is in its last stage.

America is in the stage f decadence (?).

Therefore….

What is flerp? Here are examples of flerp. Flerp is embedded in examples. But what flerp is (what feature of examples is flerp) is not clear because examples are ambiguous. Any example that contains the essential ingredient of flerp also has other NONessential features. And examples themselves do not tell you. So, if a teacher says, “This is flerp,” which of the features in the example does the word flerp point to? So, the teacher uses many examples and some NONexamples so that the learning mechanism can use it routine of inductive reasoning to figire out (induce) the feature that makes an example flerp and that makes a nonexample not flerp.

Here we go...

Steps in instruction. / What the learning mechanism does. Make your own thoughts explicit. How are you trying to figure out what flerp is?
1. This is flerp. (/’_
2. This is flerp. &*)’_
3. This is flerp. \*^#(
4. This is NOT flerp. \’^#
5. This is NOT flerp. _&\*
6. This IS flerp. _&\*)
7. This IS flerp. /’(^#
So, what is flerp?

What was the logical process by which you figured it out, or induced the generalization: Flerp is……..?

Did you compare examples called flerp and find the one thing that was always there?

“Whenever it’s called flerp, there is………”

Did you compare examples of NOT flerp and find the one thing that was not there?

“Whenever it’s called NOT flerp, there is NOT….”

Did you contrast juxtaposed (next to each other) examples of flerp and not flerp (3 and 4; 5 and 6), and identify the one thing that was different?

“Flerp must be whatever is always there when it’s called flerp and
what’s NOT there when it’s called NOT flerp. Therefore, flerp is…..”

Summarize what the learning mechanism does---the logical operations called inductive reasoning--- to induce what flerp is from the examples and nonexamples.

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

What are the implications for instruction?

1. Examples should ______so comparison

reveals the ways they are the ______.

2. Nonexamples should be just like examples in the ______features,

but should be missing the ______features.

3. Examines and nonexamples should be______so students can compare and

contrast, and identify the difference that makes the ______.

Can some of these operations be taught as pre-skills? MUST some of them be taught or strengthened in some kids? If so, how?

Can the whole routine of inductive reasoning be taught AS a routine? How?

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