The Counterfactual Railway Network: Summary and Description

Annexe 2

The counterfactual railway network: summary and description

Introduction

This document describes the basic counterfactual network. It corresponds to version A of the counterfactual, as described in the main text; it is the network that offers the greatest estimated social net benefit. There is an associated book of maps which plot the routes on a scale of 2.4 inches to the mile. The routes are described below by means of tables; they are specified in sufficient detail to allow precise measures of distances to be made, and the major towns along the routes to be clearly identified.

The specification of a railway network is extremely complex, and considerable care has therefore been given to the best way to present the relevant information. This appendix employs a tabular method. If every section of every route were itemised separately then the table would be extremely long. To condense the information, and facilitate its interpretation, long-distance through routes have been constructed by connecting consecutive links in the network. With the exception of two ‘orbital’ routes, and other lines designated as ‘loops’, these through routes pursue a particular orientation (e.g. East – West) throughout their length.

In most cases a through route is suitable for a timetabled passenger service, running from end to end. In a few cases, however, the route would be more useful if different services operated along different portions of the line, with trains joining and leaving the route at appropriate points.

Each route is characterised in two ways: by the quality of the infrastructure, which determines the volume of traffic that can be carried and the speed that can be sustained, and by the role of the route within the context of the network as a whole. These two dimensions are summarised in the Tables 1 and 2 below.

Table 1 summarisesthe four-way classification of infrastructure quality,outlined in the main text. It ranges from trunk routes, through primary routes and secondary routes, to local routes. Trunk routes are straight and level, with a high minimum radius of curvature, and low ruling gradients while, at the other extreme, local routes may have high curvatures and steep gradients. Trunk routes consist of double track (or more), whilst local routes will typically be single track with passing loops every few miles.

Three columns are used to tabulate the network in Table 3. The first shows a code that identifies the route. This has three parts. The first is a letter identifying the minimum quality of the infrastructure along the route, derived from Table 1; the second is another letter which identifies the role of the route within the network as a whole, and is derived from Table 2; whilst the third is a number that identifies the specific route.

The second column of Table 3 summarises the route, and in some cases gives it a name – e.g. the ‘North Wales Coastal loop’. Only the key locations needed to identify the route are shown in this column. Locations shown in italic are served only by connections. Locations connected by trunk lines are shown in bold.

The details of the route are presented in the third column. Hubs at which connections can be made are shown in bold, and the connections are shown in italics within brackets after the name of the hub. Distances in miles between adjacent centres are shown between the dashes. The smaller towns and villages which are incidentally served along a route are indicated only on the maps mentioned above.

Routes may join or divide at rural junctions at which it is unlikely that trains would ever wish to stop. Where clarity demands it, these junctions are identified by placing the names of the junctions within curly brackets to show that they are not places at which connections can be made. In most cases, however, the precise location of these junctions has been suppressed in order to avoid unnecessary complication. Where two routes join at a rural junction, the distance attributed to one of the routes must be reduced to avoid ‘double-counting’ the overall length of the network. A distance imputed in this way is indicated by an asterisk. When estimating journey times from the recorded distances it is important to remember that in such cases the actual distance travelled by a train along the route will exceed the distance shown in the table.

Two routes occasionally overlap for a portion of the journey because they both use the same link between adjacent centres. The distance of the linkage is imputed to only one of the routes. For the other route, the distance is shown in curved brackets to indicate that it should not be included in any estimate of the total length of the network.

The quality of the infrastructure may vary along some long-distance routes. Where the route passes through areas of high population density, or acts as a link between two trunk routes that it intersects, a higher quality of infrastructure may be required. In such cases the higher-quality portions of the route are shown within square brackets in the third column of the table.

Within each category, the routes are listed in a clock-wise order, beginning with routes in the South-east, on the south bank of the River Thames, and ending with routes on the north bank of the River Thames. Along any given radius, routes closer to London are listed before routes more distant from London. The implementation of these principles is modified when two routes that would otherwise appear at different places in the sequence are strongly inter-dependent; in such cases they are listed together.

The total mileage of each route is listed in the middle column of the table. A distinction is drawn between gross mileage and net mileage. Gross mileage is the total distance that would be travelled by a train along a route. The net mileage is the addition to the total route mileage of the system effected by the route. The difference between the two is accounted for by the mileage that has already been imputed to some other route. The distance between a rural junction and the neighbouring station mentioned in the table is an example of such duplicate mileage. Where a route joins another route at a country junction and then traverses track that has already been imputed to another route, the distance imputed to the route in question is identified by an asterisk, and the duplicated portion is shown as additional mileage (indicated by a + sign). Where an entire section of a route between two centres has already been imputed to another route, the distance of this section is shown separately in brackets.

The total route mileage of the counterfactual network is calculated by summing the relevant mileages from the middle column of Table 3. Table 4 shows mileage figures classified by the quality of infrastructure (as specified in Table 1) and its role by the network (as specified in Table 2). Table 5 shows the average length of a route in each category, calculated by dividing the total route mileage in the relevant category by the number of lines in that category, as listed in Table 3.

The total route mileage is only 10,136, which is only just over half the actual size of the network in 1914. Because of the magnitude of the discrepancy, the calculations have been checked very carefully, and so far as we are aware there are no errors or omissions. However, it appears that the statistics on the actual network, as reported in the Railway Returns, include a significant number of freight only branches – principally colliery lines. They also include connecting spurs at major junctions, which have not been allowed for in the counterfactual analysis. Although some colliery lines were little more than extended sidings, there were so many of them, and some were so long, that they have a significant influence on the statistics. It is probable that these additional route miles were included in order to comply with the letter of the law, as the companies would be aware that the extent of their networks was well known to the Railway Inspectorate; they may also have been included in order to boost the company’s reputation by creating a statistical illusion that its network was larger than it really was.

To ensure that the statistics of the counterfactual network are fully comparable with those of the actual network, the counterfactual statistics have been adjusted on the basis that the ratio of colliery lines and additional spurs to normal route mileage is the same on both systems. The scale of the counterfactual has been inflated by 18 per cent, which represents an upper bound on the adjustment that is required. This increases the counterfactual route mileage to 11,959.9. This figure has been rounded up to 12,000 in the text.

Table 1

Quality of infrastructure

Code / Type / Speed / Traffic
T / Trunk / High / Heavy
P / Primary / High / Moderate
S / Secondary / Moderate / Moderate
L / Local / Low / Low

Table 2

Role in the network

Code / Type / Description
R / Radial / Radiates from London
G / Inter-regional / Links different regions, avoiding London
F / Feeder / Feeds traffic into a major urban centre or major route
U / Urban loop / Loop into city-centre from by-pass
C / Coastal loop / Loop through coastal towns
N / Inland loop / Loop through inland towns
O / Orbital / Circular loop around either a city or a region; may not be completely closed
B / Branch / Line to dead-end terminus that is not part of other routes above
K / Link / Linkage that does not correspond to any of the types above

Table 3

Listing of routes

Ref / Origin - destination / Route
Long radial routes:
Trunk throughout / Very long-distance primary routes radiating from London carrying heavy traffic at high speed
TR1 / London – Exeter - Plymouth
[206.6m.] / London (NW) – 14.5 - Staines (Southampton) – 15.3 - Wokingham (Ash) – 6.8 - Reading (Oxford) – 5.5 - Theale (Pangbourne) – 11.3 – Newbury (Andover) – 9.3 - Hungerford – 9.8 - Wootton Rivers (Marlborough) – 12.8 - Devizes (Chippenham loop) – 10.3 - Trowbridge (Chippenham loop, Bath – Bristol) – 8.5 - Frome – Castle Cary (Yeovil) – 13.3 - Langport (Wells loop, Bridgewater) – 12.8 - Taunton (Minehead) – 19.0 - Tiverton – 14.0 - Exeter – 14.3 - Heathfield (Torquay loop) – 5.8 - Ashburton – 8.3 - South Brent (Torquay loop) – 15.0 - Plymouth (Saltash – Penzance, North Cornwall loop)
TR2 / London – Reading – Gloucester - Cardiff –Carmarthen
[194.4m.] (36.6m.) / London (NW) – Reading (T1) – 5.8 – Pangbourne – 9.0 - Wallingford – 1.5 – {Shillingford (Abingdon loop, Thame)} – 10.5 - Oxford (Abingdon loop,Banbury) – 10.8 - Witney – 7.3 - Burford – 10.0 - Northleach (Cirencester loop) – 11.5 - Cheltenham (Tewkesbury) – 8.5 - Gloucester (Hereford - Aberystwyth) – 11.3 – Newnham (Cinderford) – 8.0 - Lydney – 9.0 - Chepstow – 15.5 - Newport (Abergavenny) – 11.3 - Cardiff (Aberdare loop, Barry loop) – 18.3 - Bridgend (Barry loop) – 5.5 – Pyle (Porthcawl) – 10.5 - Neath (Swansea loop)– 11.3 - Pontarddulais (Gorseinon) – 5.3 - Ammanford (Llandeilo, Brynamman loop) – 13.5 - Carmarthen(Narberth– Pembroke, Swansea loop, Cardigan, Lampeter)
TR3 / London – Stoke – Carlisle – Glasgow
[395.1m.] / London (NW) – 12.5 - Watford (St. Albans, Dunstable loop) – 7.5 - Boxmoor (Hemel Hempstead - St. Albans)– 10.0 - Tring (Aylesbury – Brackley) – 7.3 - Leighton Buzzard (Dunstable loop, Bedford) – 23.8 - Northampton (Daventry – Leamington, Kettering loop) – 15.8 – {Crick (Coventry - Birmingham, Lutterworth -Leicester)} – 18.5 - Nuneaton – 13.0 – Tamworth – 7.8 – Lichfield (Burton-on-Trent, Birmingham loop, Walsall) – 7.5 - Rugeley (Stafford loop) - 14.0 - Stone (Stafford loop) – 8.8 - Stoke-on-Trent (Manchester, Chester - Holyhead) – 22.5 - Northwich – 10.3 - Warrington (Liverpool, St. Helens-Southport, Mersey loop) – 11.8 - Wigan (Southport) – 8.0 - Chorley (Ormskirk – Liverpool, Bolton - Manchester) – 6.0 - Preston (Kirkham - Fleetwood) – 11.0 - Garstang (Fylde loop) – 10.5 - Lancaster (Morecambe – Heysham) – 15.0 - Kirby Lonsdale (Kendal, Barrow-in-Furness) – 8.5 - Sedburgh Junction (Hawes – Leyburn, Kirkby Stephen loop) – 26.3 - Penrith (Keswick, Workington, Kirkby Stephen loop) – 18.3 - Carlisle – 10.0 - Gretna (Dumfries loop, Stranraer) – 15.3 - Lockerbie – 14.0 - Moffat Junction (Dumfries loop) – 26.5 - Symington (Biggar – Edinburgh, Lanark loop) – 14.8 - Carluke (Lanark loop) – 4.5 - Wishaw (Shotts link) – 3.5 - Motherwell (Coatbridge – Stirling, Hamilton loop) – 4.0 - Uddingston (Hamilton loop) – 7.8 - Glasgow (Dumbarton –Inverness)
TR4 / London – Cambridge – Norwich - Great Yarmouth
[123.3m.] / London (NE) – 16.3 - Broxbourne (Bishops Stortford – Cambridge) – 5.8 - Ware (Hertford – St. Albans) – 15.5 – Baldock (Royston – Cambridge) –8.8 - Royston – 13.0 - Cambridge (Ely – Kings Lynn) – 13.3 - Newmarket (Bury St. Edmunds) – 8.8 - Mildenhall – 11.8 - Thetford (East Dereham) – 20.5 - Wymondham – 9.5 - Norwich (Cromer loop, Bungay - Lowestoft) – Great Yarmouth (Lowestoft)
Short radial routes:
Trunk throughout
TR5 /

London – Dover

[77.8m.] / London (S) – 4.3 - Lewisham (Croydon) – 12.5 - Dartford – 6.8 - Gravesend – 6.8 - Strood (Wallend) – 1.3 - Chatham (Maidstone – Tunbridge Wells) – 10.8 - Sittingbourne (Sheerness, Maidstone – Tunbridge Wells) – 8.0 - Faversham (Ramsgate – Deal loop) – 9.8 - Canterbury (Sandwich) – 14.5 – Whitfield (Folkestone – Brighton, Ramsgate – Deal loop) – 3.0 - Dover
TR6 /

London – Brighton

[63.4m.] / London (S) – 3.0 - Clapham (Croydon) – 5.0 - Wimbledon – 7.5 - Epsom (Sutton – Croydon) – 4.8 - Leatherhead (Guildford) – 4.8 - Dorking (LondonOrbital) – 14.3 - Horsham (Arundel – Chichester) – 17.5 - Shoreham (Worthing) – 6.5 - Brighton
TR7 / London – StainesSouthampton – Poole
[95.4m.] (14.5m.) / London (NW) – Staines (Reading, London Orbital) – 16.8 - Ash (Wokingham – Reading, Guildford) – 5.3 - Farnham (Petersfield – Havant – Portsmouth) – 10.0 - Alton – 10.5 - Alresford – 7.5 - Winchester – 8.3 - North Stoneham (Southampton loop, Fareham – Portsmouth, Romsey – Salisbury) – 5.5 - Millbrook (Southampton loop) – 6.5 - Lyndhurst (Lymington loop) – 14.5 - Christchurch (Lymington loop) – 10.5 - Poole (Wimborne – Blandford, Wareham – Bridport)
TR8 /

London – Ipswich

[73.3m.] / London (NE) – 12.5 - Romford (Upminster – Tilbury) – 7.5 - Brentwood (Basildon – Southend, Harlow – Ware) – 11.8 - Chelmsford (Maldon, Braintree – Bury St. Edmunds) – 22.5 - Colchester (Clacton-on-Sea) - 8.5 - Manningtree (Harwich) – 10.5 - Ipswich ( Stowmarket - Great Yarmouth)
Trunk feeders to radial trunk lines / These lines carry heavy-traffic at high speed, which feeds into longer-distance trunk lines
TF1 / London– Northampton - Birmingham – Shrewsbury
[82.5m.] (15.8m.) / London (NW) –Northampton (Daventry – Leamington, Kettering loop) – (15.8) – {Crick (Nuneaton, Leicester)} (T3) – 5.5 - Rugby – 11.8 - Coventry – 20.3 - Birmingham – 8.5 - Wednesbury (Dudley, Walsall) – 5.3 - Wolverhampton (Stafford) – 12.8 – Shifnal (Bridgnorth, Newport) – 7.5 – Wellington – 10.8 - Shrewsbury (Welshpool – Newtown –Aberystwyth)
TF2 / Liverpool – Chorley-Glasgow
[26.1m.] / Liverpool – 12.8 - Ormskirk (Southport) – 13.3 -Chorley(Preston – Glasgow)
TF3 / London – Symington – Edinburgh
[33.1m.] / London (NW) - Symington (Carluke – Glasgow) – 4.0 - Biggar (Peebles) – 20.8 - Penicuik (Peebles) – 8.3 - Edinburgh (Longniddry – Dunbar)
TF4 / London– Motherwell – Aberdeen
[151.8m.] / London (NW) - Motherwell (Symington, Uddingston) – 5.8 - Coatbridge (Airdrie) – 9.3 – Castlecary (Glasgow) – 13.5 - Stirling (Fife Coast loop, Falkirk – Edinburgh) – 6.0 – Dunblane (Doune – Crianlarich) – 15.0 – Auchterarder (Crieff) – 13.3 – Perth (Forfar loop, Fife Coast loop) – 21.3 – Dundee – 17.8 - Arbroath – 11.8 - Montrose (Forfar loop) – 9.0 - Laurencekirk – 15.0 - Stonehaven – 14.0 - Aberdeen (Ellon – Inverness, Peterhead, Ballater)
TF5 / London – Northampton - Leicester– Leeds – Newcastle
[221.4m.] (15.8m.) / London (NW) – Northampton (Daventry – Leamington, Ketteringloop) – (15.8) – {Crick (Nuneaton, Coventry - Birmingham)} (T3) – 7.8 - Lutterworth – 14.0 - Leicester (Melton Mowbray, Kettering loop) – 10.5 - Loughborough – 10. 0 - Long Eaton (Nottingham, Derby) – 5.5 - Ilkeston – 20.3 - Chesterfield (Bakewell loop) - 4.3 - Staveley (Mansfield loop) – 11.8 - Beighton (Sheffield loop) – 6.0 - Rotherham (Sheffield loop) – 5.3 - Mexborough (Doncaster – Thorne) – 8.8 - Cudworth (Barnsley – Penistone) – 9.3 - Wakefield – 3.5 – East Ardsley (Dewsbury) – 5.5 - Leeds (Shipley – Skipton) – 12.3 -Wetherby (York, Wharfedale loop) – 7.5 - Knaresborough (Harrogate) – 9.8 - Ripon (Thirsk loop, Leyburn – Hawes – Sedburgh Junction) – 20.0 - Catterick (Thirsk loop, Leyburn – Hawes – Sedburgh Junction, Richmond) – 12.3 - Darlington (Barnard Castle) – 12.3 - Bishop Auckland (Stanhope) – 10.0 - Durham (Shotley Bridge loop) – 6.3 - Chester-le-Street (Sunderland) – 8.3 - Newcastle (Morpeth – Glasgow, Tyne & Wensleydale Circular, Shotley Bridge loop)
Inter-regional trunk lines
TG1 / Liverpool – Manchester – Hull
[127.6m.] / Liverpool (Ormskirk, Mersey loop) – 17.5 - Warrington (Northwich – London, Wigan, Mersey loop, St.Helens loop) – 16.8 - Manchester – 9.0 - Stalybridge (Stockport) – 17.8 - Huddersfield – 2.3 - Deighton (Penistone – Sheffield, Brighouse – Halifax) – 2.8 - Mirfield (Dewsbury – Leeds) – 8.8 - Wakefield (Cudworth) – 10.5 - Knottingley (Leeds) – 11.0 - Snaith (Thorne – Grimsby) - 6.3 – Goole – 6.3 - Staddlethorpe (Selby – York) – 18.5 - Hull (Beverley – Scarborough)
TG2 / Glasgow – Edinburgh
[51.1m.] / Glasgow (Uddingston – London, Dumbarton – Inverness) – 8.3 - Kirkintilloch – 10.0 - Castlecary (Coatbridge, Stirling) – 7.0 - Falkirk (Stirling) – 7.0 - Linlithgow – 8.8 - South Queensferry (ferry to Inverkeithing) – 10.0 - Edinburgh (Dalkieth – Hawick, Dunbar)
Trunk Orbital
TO1 / Inner London Orbital
[21.8m.] / London (NE) (Romford – Ipswich, Broxbourne – Cambridge) – 4.0 - London (North Central) – 5.3 - London (NW) (Staines – Plymouth, Watford – Glasgow, Uxbridge – High Wycombe) – 2.5 - London (West Central) – 4.5 - London (SW) (Wimbledon – Brighton,Croydon – Tunbridge Wells, London South Central) – 5.5 - London (SE) (Dartford – Dover, Croydon, London South Central)
Trunk links
TK1 / Oxford – Thame
[13.5m.] / Oxford (Witney – Gloucester, Banbury) – 13.5 – Thame (Aylesbury – Shillingford)
TK2 / Chester – Warrington
[18.8m.] / Chester (Flint – Holyhead, Wrexham, Birkenhead) – 10.8 - Frodsham – 8.0 - Warrington(Wigan, Manchester)

Trunk loops into urban centres

TU1 /

London South Central loop

[7.5m]. / London (SW) (Inner London Orbital) – 3.5 - London South Central – 4.0 - London (SE) (Inner London Orbital)
TU2 /

Southampton loop

[13.5m.] / [North Stoneham (Winchester – London, Fareham, Romsey) – 4.5 – Southampton – 3.5 - Millbrook (Lyndhurst – Poole) – 5.5 – Romsey (Salisbury, Andover, North Stoneham)]
TU3 /

Swansea loop

[34.4*m. + 3.0m.] / [Neath (Bridgend – Gloucester) – 5.5* - Swansea(Brynamman loop)] – 6.3 – Gorseinon (Pontardulais) – 4.8 – Llanelly – 4.5 – Burry Port – 4.5 – Kidwelly – 8.8 –Carmarthen (Narberth – Pembroke Dock, Lampeter loop)
TU4 /

Birmingham loop

[26.0*m. +4.0m.] / Stourbridge (Kidderminster, Dudley) – 9.5* - Birmingham (Coventry – London) – 7.0 – Sutton Coldfield – 9.5 – Lichfield (Burton-on-Trent, Rugeley, Tamworth)
TU5 /

Derby loop

[18.0m.] / [Willington (Burton – Birmingham, Uttoxeter – Stoke-on-Trent) – 7.5 – Derby (Ilkeston) – 10.5 – Long Eaton] (Nottingham, Loughborough – London)
TU6 /

Nottingham loop

[7.5m.] (7.3m.) / [Long Eaton (Nottingam, Loughborough – London) – (7.3) – Nottingham (Newark – Lincoln) (PG4) – 7.5 – Ilkeston (Chesterfield, Derby)]
TU7 /

Stafford loop

[6.5*m. + 3.3m.] (7.5m.) / Rugeley (Tamworth – London) – 6.5* - Stafford (Wolverhampton) – (7.5) – Stone (Stoke-on-Trent) (CT3)
TU8 /

Sheffield loop

[6.3m.]
(5.3*m. + 2.2m.) / [Beighton (Chesterfield – London, Worksop – Lincoln) – (5.3*) – Sheffield (Penistone – Preston) (PG7) – 5.0 – Rotherham (Mexborough – Leeds)]
TU9 /

ManchesterLoop: Stoke-on-Trent – Stockport – Manchester – Chorley

[30.1m.] / Stoke-on-Trent – [Stockport (Stalybridge – Leeds, Wilmslow – Northwich) – 7.5 – Manchester (Bury – Accrington, Rochdale loop) – 11.3 – Bolton (Wigan loop) – 11.3 – Chorley (Preston – Glasgow, Ormskirk – Liverpool)]
Inter-regional primary routes, with a trunk portion / Long cross-country routes, carrying moderate levels of traffic at high-speed throughout, with some trunk portions carrying high levels of traffic
PG1 / Dover – Brighton -Salisbury – Trowbridge – Bath – Bristol
[68.7m.] 135.5m.
(9.3m.) / Dover– (2.8) - Whitfield (Canterbury, Deal loop) (TR5) – 6.5 - Folkestone – 4.0 - Hythe – 12.0 – Lydd - 7.5 - Rye (Tenterden – Maidstone) – 12.5 - Hastings – 4.8 - Bexhill – 6.5 - Pevensey (Eastbourne loop) – 4.5 - Polegate (Eastbourne loop, Uckfield – East Grinstead) – 11.2 - Lewes – 8.3 - Brighton – (6.5) - Shoreham (Horsham) (TR6) – Worthing – 2.5 - Goring-by-Sea (Littlehampton – Bognor loop) – 7.0 - Arundel (Pulborough - Horsham) – 10.3 - Chichester (Littlehampton - Bognor loop) – 10.0 - Havant (Petersfield - London) – 2.8 - Cosham (Portsmouth) – 5.0 - Fareham (Gosport) – 11.0 - North Stoneham (Winchester, Southampton loop) – 6.5 – [Romsey (Southampton loop) – 4.3 - Mottisfont (Andover - Newbury) – 12.0- Salisbury (Amesbury) – 19.3 - Warminster (Frome, Taunton) – 8.5 -Trowbridge (Melksham, Cheltenham) – 5.5 - Limpley Stoke (Radstock - Midsomer Norton) – 7.3 - Bath – 11.8 - Bristol (Nailsea – Bridgewater)]