PEOPLE IN NEED
SOMALIA is document is produced on behalf of the Humanitarian Country Team and partners.
is document provides the Humanitarian Country Team’s shared understanding of the crisis, including the most pressing humanitarian need and the estimated number of people who need assistance. It represents a consolidated evidence base and helps inform joint strategic response planning.
e designations employed and the presentation of material in the report do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
@OCHAsomalia PART I:
Humanitarian needs key ﬁgures
Impact of the crisis
Breakdown of people in need
Severity of need
G U L F O F A D E N
I N D I A N O C E A N
Acute food insecurity phase IDPs population by
(Aug - Dec 2018 Projection) Phase
Mininal (Phase 1)
Number of IDPs by region
Stressed (Phase 2) 977,000 in Stress
Crisis (Phase 3) 777,000 in Crisis
Catastrophe (Phase 5
Emergency (Phase 4) 107,000 in Emergency
16,000 in Catastrophe
1. The integrated food security phase classiꢁcation (IPC) is a set of tools and procedures to classify the severity of food insecurity using a widely accepted ꢁve-phase scale. At the area level, it divides areas into the following phases: IPC Phase 1=Minimal; Phase 2=Stress; Phase 3=Crisis; Phase 4=Emergency; and Phase 5 = Famine. data source: FAO- FSNAU,
2. IDPs data source: UNHCR - PRMN
The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on the maps in this document do not imply oꢀcial endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations. PART I: HUMANITARIAN NEEDS ꢀEY ꢁIꢂURES
NEEDS ꢀEY ꢁIꢂURES
Somalia remains one of the most complex and long-standing humanitarian crises in the world. 2018 has seen some improvements in the food security outlook, mainly due to the above-average ꢂu rainfall and sustained humanitarian response. However, such gains are fragile, serious protection concerns persist and humanitarian needs in Somalia remain high. Climatic shocks, armed conﬂict and violence are key drivers of humanitarian needs and human rights violations. One third of the total population, or 4.2 million people, require humanitarian assistance and protection. Along with humanitarian action, substantial investment in resilience-building and development solutions will be critical to ultimately reduce humanitarian needs in Somalia.
Life-threatening Protection risks Limited livelihood Needs of hard-todue to exposition needs among the opportunities reach populations to armed conﬂict, displaced and and weakened other crisis aﬀected violence and other resilience communities, and a lack of access to quality basic services
An estimated 2
12disasters 3 4million people
Two million people – over 60 are living in hard-to-reach,
Violations and abuses, such conﬂict-aﬀected areas, prias sexual and gender-based attacks on civilian areas, particularly vulnerable conpervasive feature of the per cent of all food insecure people in stress (IPC 2) – are violence, child recruitment, either IDPs or are living in infrastructure and forced ditions. Especially, displaced and require immediate displacement, remain a and socially marginalized groups in urban, peri-urban, humanitarian crisis in and rural areas – including marily in the southern and central regions of Somalia.
Accessibility of those in need is hindered by the presence of non-state armed actors, active conﬂict and insecurity, as well as limited infrastruc-
Somalia. Vulnerable groups, severe acute malnutrition pastoral and agro-pasto- ture. is has resulted in the reduction in presence of hu-
Over 1.5 million people face acute levels of food insecurity (IPC 3 and above) assistance for their survival.
e median prevalence of has surpassed the emergency
such as women, children, ral communities – require livelihood support to prevent manitarian partners as well members of marginalized million internally displaced a deterioration of their situation and to help protect their assistance. exploitation, exclusion and in conﬂict-aﬀected areas, their resilience against clithreshold of two per cent. 2.6 people with disabilities and as diﬃculty in the delivery of persons (IDPs), marginalized communities are especially communities and civilians livelihoods and increase living in the most vulnerable matic shocks. discrimination. circumstances, have limited or no access to quality basic services. at risk of violence, PART I: HUMANITARIAN NEEDS ꢀEY ꢁIꢂURES
NUMBER Oꢁ PEOPLE WHO NEED HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE
BY STATUS BY AꢂE SEX
INTERNALLY REꢁUꢂEES REꢁUꢂEE CHILDREN ADULT ELDERLY
DISPLACED RETURNEES ( 18 YEARS) (18ꢃ59 YEARS) ( 59 YEARS)
2.6 39,000 92,200 2.5 1.6 0.1
1.25M girls 0.8M women 0.05M women
1.25M boys 0.8M men 0.05M men
TOTAL MALE TOTAL ꢁEMALE
50% 50% male female
CHILDREN 5 YEARS
ꢁOOD INSECURE PEOPLE IN INTERNAL EVICTIONS
NEED Oꢁ HUMANITARIAN DISPLACEMENT
(OCT 2015 ꢃOCT 2018)
IN URBAN AREAS
IPC 2: 2 M
Educ Scale FSC IPC IDPs Malnutrion
IPC 3 ABOVE:
MODERATELY PART I: IMPACT Oꢁ THE CRISIS
IMPACT Oꢁ THE CRISIS
Ongoing armed conﬂict and insecurity, as well as cyclical climatic shocks, amid compounding political and socioeconomic factors, continue to drive and impact the humanitarian crisis in Somalia. Such factors have resulted in protracted economic vulnerability and the loss of livelihoods, particularly among agro-pastoralists, rural pastoralists and riverine farmers. Violence and limited access to humanitarian assistance and basic social services in rural and hard-to-reach areas has spurred mass population movement toward urban and peri-urban areas, further straining the limited resources and absorption capacity of host communities.The combined impact increasingly exposes households to risks of violence, exploitation and abuse. As a result, in 2019 4.2 million
Somalis are in need of humanitarian assistance.
e most vulnerable groups, who are exposed to the highest risks and are consistently socially excluded3, include women, children, the elderly, child- and female-headed households, the physically and mentally disabled, people living in conﬂict zones, and marginalized groups. Such groups are not mutually exclusive, compounding the vulnerability of those who belong to more than one. Displaced women, children and minority group members are particularly vulnerable due to family separations and/or the absence of community networks. IDPs with a diﬀerent clan proﬁle from host communities are also more vulnerable.
The crisis impacts people in all regions of Somalia, but the IDPs and the host communities bear the most substantial burden
roughout all 18 regions of Somalia, there are people in need, ranging from 16 to 71 per cent of the regional population. Close to 50 per cent of all people in need are located in ﬁve regions:
Banadir (721,000), Bay (370,000), Lower Shabelle (370,000),
Awdal (306,000) and Hiraan (279,000)1.
2.6 million IDPs have been displaced by armed conﬂict and violence, insecurity and/or drought/ﬂoods2. ey currently live in all regions with around 80 per cent in urban areas.
Despite insecurity and regular climatic shocks, Somalia also hosts 39,000 refugees and asylum seekers, mainly from
Ethiopia (19,600) and Yemen (12,100) as well as 92,000 refugee returnees are expected to return from Kenya and Yemen.
Despite improvements, the humanitarian situation remains characterized by fragility
In comparison to the 2018 HNO, humanitarian needs in 2019 have reduced by 34 per cent, from 6.2 to 4.2 million people, which is due to a combination of the overall improvement in the food security outlook, linked to the Gu rains and the sustained humanitarian response, as well as a revised methodology for calculating the number of People in Need (PIN), which applies both population and geographic vulnerability criteria (see box
Among the communities hosting displaced people, 1.5 million people suﬀer in particular from the impact of decades of violence, recurrent climatic shocks and governance challenges.
In both, rural and urban areas, there is an ongoing struggle over limited resources and access to aid, oꢀen leading to tensions between the host communities and IDPs.
PROPORTION OF PEOPLE IN NEED COMPARED TO TOTAL POPULATION BY REGION
16% PART I: IMPACT Oꢁ THE CRISIS
Despite the overall improvements in food security, similar gains were not observed with respect to malnutrition, which is inﬂuenced by several factors, including healthcare, clean water, proper sanitation and good hygiene practices. Close to one million children under the age of ﬁve are expected to be acutely malnourished in 2019, including 174,000 suﬀering from life-threatening severe malnutrition. e prevalence of Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) is at 14 per cent, although many parts of Somalia remain above the emergency threshold of 15 per cent. In particular, areas hosting IDPs have some of the highest rates of malnutrition5. Malnutrition in Somalia has proven to be a generational issue in the case of adolescent girls, as poor nutrition and subsequent poor health, carries over from adolescence, through pregnancy, to the child. In order to break this cycle, nutrition programs are needed in schools, with a particular focus on adolescent girls.
Box 1: New methodology in calculating People in
Compared to previous years, the 2019 HNO applied a new methodology in calculating the total number of people in need of humanitarian assistance. Therefore, the 34 per cent reduction of PIN compare to 2018 is a result of three factors:
•Improvement of the humanitarian situation.
•A more focused deﬁnition of humanitarian needs.
•Calculation of people in need beyond food security and nutrition data.
Please see annex 1 for more details
As a result of conﬂict and climatic shocks, over 1.5 million e 2018 Gu rains also contributed to the improvement of people are suﬀering from acute food insecurity (IPC 3 or water availability, as well as to the increase in access to water higher), and require immediate assistance for their survival, across most of the country: 74 per cent of host community while close to 2 million food insecure people are in stress households and 59 per cent of IDPs reported having adequate
(IPC 2). Comparing the post Gu results from 2017 with those access to drinking water6. ese ﬁndings show an improvement of 2018, the number of people in IPC 3 and 4 have reduced compared to 2017, where almost half of households (47 per by 52 per cent, while the IPC 2 caseload remained virtually cent), particularly host communities, reported inadequate unchanged, with a reduction of only 0.6 per cent. Almost 60 access to water7. Notwithstanding the improvements in per cent of people in crisis (IPC 3) and emergency (IPC 4) water accessibility in 2018, large discrepancies exist across levels are IDPs4. Having limited access to land and livelihoods geographic areas and vulnerable groups. More sustainable opportunities, IDPs are largely dependent on humanitarian solutions for water accessibility are needed for both displaced assistance and are in need of durable solutions. and non-displaced populations, given that it is also key to combatting the spread of diseases such as cholera and Acute
SOMALIA CRISIS TIMELINE 2018
Operational Plan for Famine Prevention launched, requesting $825 million to target 5.5
13,900 cumulative cases of Famine alert issued. million people over a six-month period.
AWD/cholera (week 44),
Drought declared by
Harvests are among the lowest recorded, 60-70% below the ﬁve-year average. with 496 deaths (3.56%
President of the Federal Government of Somalia declares the drought a national disaster. governments of Somaliland and Puntland.
An estimated 1.1 million
IDPs are in Somalia from conﬂict and previous droughts.
Revised HRP launched to respond to ongoing drought, consolidating
HRP and Operational Plan for Famine Prevention.
Total ﬁnancial requirement
$1.5 billion to target 5.4 million people.
Results of post-Gu assessment:
976,000 people in IPC 3 or above, a reduction of 4% compared to post-Gu 2015
GAM: 15.2% and SAM: 2.8%.
HRP launched, with a ﬁnancial request of $864 million to target 3.9 million people out of 5 million in need.
HRP launched, with a ﬁnancial request of $885 million to target 3.5 million people out of 4.9 million in need.
e graph shows the evolution of number of indicators in alarm phase across Somalia between January 2016 and September 2018 as per the Early-warning Early-action dashboard of FSNAU. In this period, the lowest value was recorded in January 2016 (99 indicators) and the highest in March 2017 (386 indicators). In September 2018, 130 indicators were in alarm phase. PART I: IMPACT Oꢁ THE CRISIS
Changes in Post Gu ﬁndings in 2017 to 2018 (source: FSNAU)
POST-GU POST DEYR POST JILAAL POST GU
2018 2017 2018 2018
Number of IDPs considered 1.1M 1.1M 2.6M 2.6M +1,500,000 (136%)
People in Emergency (IPC 4)
800,000 N/A -645,000 (-80%) 500,000 155,000
People in Crisis and Emergency (Phase 3 4)
3,100,000 2,700,000 2,497,000 1,500,000 -1,600,000 (-52%)
3,100,000 2,700,000 2,905,000 3,080,000
People in stress (Phase 2)
Watery Diarrhea (AWD). e proximity of water sources and the availability of latrines is also a critical issue that can expose 2018 (source: FSNAU) women and girls to sexual and gender-based violence8. As a result of mass population inﬂuxes to urban centres, existing infrastructure is not suﬃcient to meet the demand, thus forcing women to walk long distances which makes them more vulnerable to assaults. One in three women report having to walk more than 30 minutes to reach a water source9. Overall, despite the improvements in access to WASH and health services, a large proportion of population reports low quality of those services.
SAM and GAM trend change between Deyr 2013 to Gu
Emergency threshold 15%
Humanitarian needs remain above the levels seen prior to the 2017 drought crisis. Gains and improvements could be quickly reversed. In 2018, shocks such as ﬂooding along the Juba and Shabelle rivers, or Cyclone Sagar, which struck the northern coastline in May 2018, have aﬀected approximately
Emergency threshold 2%
Deyr Gu Deyr Gu Deyr Gu Deyr Gu Deyr Gu
2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018
Results of post-Gu assessment: 3.4
Cyclone Sagar aﬀects
Over 35,000 people forcefully evicted from Mogadishu IDP settlements. million people in IPC 3 or above, an increase of 71% compared to post-Gu 2016. GAM: 17.4% and SAM: 3.2%
78,426 cumulative cases of AWD/cholera (week 44) with 1159 deaths (1.48%
228,000 people in
Total IDP ﬁgure revised to 2.6
Somaliland and Puntland. million based on additional data and analysis.
HRP with a ﬁnancial request of $1.5 billion to target 5.4 million people out of 6.2 million in need.
Massive blast, caused by a vehicle-borne IED, kills at least 587 people and injures hundreds more in
Flash and riverine ﬂooding aﬀect 830,000 people, temporarily displacing
Results of post-Gu assessment
1.56 million people in IPC 3 or above, a reduction of 54% compared to post-Gu 2017.
GAM: 13.8% and SAM: 2.2%.
An additional 1 million people displaced during the 2017 drought, bringing the total IDP
ﬁgure to 2.1 million.
Early -warning Early-action dashboard since Jan 2016 (Source FSNAU) A multi-partner eﬀort mandated by the Somalia Humanitarian
Country Team (HCT) to facilitate decision making for early action based on the identiﬁcation and monitoring of a consistent set of key early warning indicators. ese are Climate (rainfall, vegetation coverage/NDVI and river levels and price of water); Market (cereal prices, livestock prices, Wage Labor and Terms of Trade); Health (Measles, AWD, Polio and Malaria); Nutrition (New admission to feeding/ treatment centers/GAM) and Population displacement. PART I: IMPACT Oꢁ THE CRISIS
October 2017 November 2017 December 2017
March 2018 April 2018 May 2018 June 2018
Note: FSNAU EW-EA database and dashboard was developed through a consultative process and uses data on a diverse range of indicators (climate, market, nutrition, health and population displacement) that have been assigned individual thresholds for Normal, Alert and Alarm. ꢀe EW-EA time series maps show trends in the number of Early Warning indicators that are in ‘Alarm’ phase month-on-month from 2015 to 2017. ꢀe varying degrees of red coloration on the map corresponds with how many indicators are in the Alarm phase in each district during a given month. ꢀe red bands in increasing intensity are +8 ,6 ,4 ,2 Indicators in Alarm Phase. Areas displayed in predominantly yellow color reꢁect less than 2 indicators in Alarm phase.
Data Source: FSNAU/FEWS NET for market data; USGS/JRC for rainfall and NDVI;
Nutrition Cluster for data on admissions, Health Cluster for data on health indicators and UNHCR for population movement.
10 one million people. Destitution among communities who in urban areas, with shortage particularly striking with respect have lost their livelihoods has compounded protection risks, to mental health facilities12. particularly for women and girls, and pushed many into
e crisis continues to also have serious consequences for the multiple or prolonged displacements. Substantial investments protection of children. Family separation, whether occurring in sustainable development solutions and resilience-building during displacement or when parents send their children eﬀorts are critical to reducing humanitarian needs in Somalia. to safer locations particularly aﬀects IDP families. Between
Excess mortality continues to be driven by malnutrition, January to July 2018, 2,400 boys and 380 girls were reported disease outbreaks and limited healthcare for those living in to be victims of grave violations committed by parties to the diﬃcult circumstances who are oꢀen the most vulnerable. One conﬂict, with child recruitment increasing by 32 per cent in in seven Somali children dies before the age of ﬁve10. Although 2018, compared to 201713. Child labour is widespread and nationally, 77 per cent of host communities and 65 per cent of is one of the main problems hampering children’s access to
IDP households reported to have access to a health facility, in education. Over out of three households rely on child labour some regions – namely Sanaag, Mudug and Banadir – over 50 as a coping mechanism, with 98 per cent of marginalized clans’ per cent of IDPs reported that there were no health facilities in households reporting the same14. Access to education is key to the area11. Pressure on the existing facilities is high, particularly ensuring child protection, especially among the displaced, girls,
CHILD MORTALITY CHILDREN IN NEED
CHILDREN IN NEED OF FAMILY
TRACING AND REUNIFICATION
3 out of 5 people in need are children
1 out of 7 children die before the age of ꢀve
8,000 PART I: IMPACT Oꢁ THE CRISIS pastoralist and rural communities, and marginalized groups, 90 per cent of the IDPs interviewed indicated that they intend including those who reside in hard-to-reach areas. to remain at their current location, and integrate locally, rather than return to their area of origin17. is varies little across regions, with Banadir showing the lowest value (78 per cent), though 18 per cent of IDPs in that region indicated that they did not know if they want to remain. Limited infrastructure and services to respond to needs, unplanned settlements with precarious security for housing, a lack of land tenure and limited livelihood opportunities prevent most IDPs from rebuilding their lives and integrating into urban communities.
IDPs’ predominant intention to remain in towns and cities across Somalia exacerbates the rapid urbanization process in the country, and shapes the approach towards addressing displacement needs in the short- and long-term, to support the attainment of durable solutions.
Widespread and protracted displacement continues to be one of the main drivers of humanitarian need in Somalia
Humanitarian needs in Somalia are substantially driven by displacement. Humanitarian actors estimate that 2.6 million people are internally displaced, located in around 2,000 IDP settlements across Somalia. e majority of these are informal settlements on private land in urban areas. e four main reasons for internal displacement are conﬂict or fear of conﬂict
(33 per cent), drought (22 per cent), a lack of livelihood opportunities (16 per cent) and evictions (5 per cent)15.
Box 2: Changes in IDP ﬁgures
ꢁorced evictions are on the rise, creating a cycle in which they are both a cause and multiplier of the displacement crisis.
In November 2016, when the humanitarian situation started rapidly deteriorating due to the ongoing drought conditions, the number of IDPs was estimated at 1.1 million. An estimated additional 1 million people had been displaced during 2017, bringing the total IDP ﬁgure to 2.1 million. In early 2018, in light of additional data and analysis, humanitarian actors adopted a total IDP ﬁgure of 2.6 million, which was subsequently endorsed by the ꢁederal ꢂovernment of Somalia.
Cumualtive evictions trend in 2017 and 2018
234,714 people evicted
(Jan - Sep 2018)
200,279 people evicted
(Jan - Dec 2017)
Many displaced households have experienced multiple displacements, resulting in a population comprised of various interwoven strata: (i) those displaced recently or over the course of decades, (ii) those displaced once or multiple times, (iii) those displaced within their original region or to a diﬀerent area in the country, (iv) those returning aꢀer ﬂeeing to neighbouring countries, and (v) people who are themselves foreign nationals and have been displaced to Somalia as refugees.