Overview

South Sudan is the world’s newest state and the product of Africa’s longest running civil war which spanned over 50 years. It gained independence in July 2011 as a multiethnic country with 64 distinct ethnic groups. The population is very young: 50 percent under 21 and 72 percent are below 30 years of age. Out of a population of 11.6 million, four fifths live in rural areas. More than 70 percent of over 15 year olds are illiterate. S. Sudan has the world’s highest maternal mortality rate – almost every 50th birth results in the mother’s death.

Before the conflict broke out, over 31% of children were stunted in South Sudan and malnutrition rates in many states were well over the WHO alarm levels of 15%. In Northern Bahr el Ghazal, in Aweil West and AweilNorth, which are among the poorest and most marginalized counties in South Sudan, malnutrition rarely drops below the 15% mark and is often as high as 25%. Our latest post-harvest survey in November 2013 found GAM rates of just over 15% in Aweil West and Aweil North. The causes of malnutrition relate to chronic food insecurity, poor household feeding practices, a high disease burden and severe gender inequality and heavy workloads of women.

On December 15th 2013 violence broke out in Juba between the government forces and the opposition forces and quickly spread to other locations in particular, Unity, Jonglei and Upper Nile. As of April 2014 at least 10,000 citizens have been killed, of the 1.3 million displaced 340,000 have left the country. The resulting wide spread destruction of human, physical and social capital coupled with a greatly exacerbated ethnic divide has set the country back by many years. Trust has been eroded between the various ethnic groups, the government and the governed, the government and development partners.

Factors which contributed to the crisis

By mid-2013S. Sudan experienced 4 years of declining per capita real income whereas the population expected rapid improvements in the standard of living. Oil revenue accounts for 98% of the country’s budget and has generated over $8 billion for the country since the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement.

Different military groups and ethnic groupswere not integratedinto the army and the civil service. The lack of a clear plan for restructuring created costly and unsustainable armed forces and a government comprising of over three dozen national Ministries and Commissions and similarly large administration in all 10 states.

The population has seen almost none of the oil wealth:Over 70 percent of government expenditure went towards salaries for SPLA and the Police.The government has not managed to significantly improve the provision of basic services. Instead there have been huge increases in income and wealth inequality and gross corruption with impunity. Despite this investment in security services, the government capacity to provide security, rule of law and enforceable property rights has remained very limited.

The lack of national identity is a key underlying factor to the conflict: citizens remained aligned to ethnic groups as opposed a country. This has been reinforced by the current crisis. Forging a sense of national identity is a process that can take decades. A major part of this is due to the lack of investment in education and again the emergency has resulted in funding diverted away from education.

The lack of a functional education system and high levels of unemployment have resulted in large numbers of socially excluded and disenfranchised youth who are ripe for political manipulation. Hate messages have been spread rapidly through radio and SMS to mobilise these youth with devastating effect: the April massacre of Darfuris in Bentiu by the White Army is just one example of this. Large numbers of small armsare readily available; many of these have been smuggled through the porous borders.

None of the above were the immediate triggers for the violence – it was a struggle for political power that set the conflict alight – however they help to explain its unexpected ferocity and the speed at which it acquired an ethnic dimension.

Consequences of the Conflict

The violence that erupted in South Sudan mid-December 2013 has led to a humanitarian crisis involving a massive displacement of 1,038,000 people nationwide. On-going conflict has resulted in the displaced seeking refuge in Protection of Civilian (PoC) sites, host communities and neighbouring countries. The marginal gains since independence have been largely wiped out. There has been a marked increase in ethnic bitterness and overt aggression, with serious human rights abuses documented. Many agencies are predicting famine in 2015 and yet there is a small window of opportunity to prevent this, but that window is rapidly closing. Cholera has already claimed the lives of 40 people with projections of over 100,000 cases being estimated by the WHO and Ministry of Health.

In the absence of government support, social services have been funded largely with donor funding. However, since the conflict, development programmes have been seriously affected as donor funding has been diverted to the emergency response. This runs a real risk of creating serious dissatisfaction in areas currently at peace and inadvertently prompting them to enter the conflict.

For example, it looks like CHF funding will no longer be provided for nutrition programming in Northern Bahr el Ghazal, even though there are higher malnutrition levels there than Juba. Juba levels are also high with a Rapid Needs Assessment in May in UN House (PoC1), in which the MUAC assessment revealed a GAM and SAM of 14.2% and 3.5% respectively. It is essential that non-conflict affected areas that are experiencing chronic food insecurity and high malnutrition rates are not neglected.

The way forward

South Sudan has reached a crossroads – the situation can either deteriorate further or the country can be returned to peace and prosperity.The time for action is now and the following is required:

  • Effective and lasting peace
  • Humanitarian access must be restored.
  • Reconciliation talks to address the gross human rights abuses and violations need to be held to redress the impact of the violence and build lasting peace.
  • Commitment to nation building.
  • Generate a wider debate on famine aversion.
  • Timely and effective disbursement of humanitarian funds.
  • Support to reform the security sector.