Agnosticism, the Moral Skepticism Objection, and CommonsenseMorality
Daniel Howard-Snyder
Many arguments from evil for atheismrely on something like thefollowing line of thought:
The Inference. On sustained reflection, we don’t see how any reasonwe know of would justify God in permitting all the evil in the world;therefore, there probably is no such reason.
Some critics of the Inference insist that even if the premise is true and even ifwe lackevidential and non-evidential warrant for theism,we shouldnot draw the Inference. You might think of these critics as “agnostics aboutthe Inference,” as I have described them elsewhere.[1] You ask them to set aside whatever might be said in favor of theism and then put a question to them: how likely is it that there is no reason that would justify God in permitting all the evil in the world given that we can’t see how any reason we know of would do the trick? “Beats me,” they reply; “I’m in no position to tell”.
There are different versions of agnosticism about the Inference. The oneI had in mind in my 2009—which I calledAgnosticism with a capital ‘A’—affirms among other relevantly similar theses that
Agnostic Thesis 1 (AT1). We should be in doubt about whether thegoods we know of constitute a representative sample of all the goodsthere are.
The Agnostic—with a capital ‘A’—continues: given AT1 (and, for ease of exposition, let’s set aside the relevantly similar theses), weshould be in doubt about whether some good we don’t know of figures in areason that would justify God. But if we should be in doubt about that, thenwe should be in doubt about whether there is a reason that would justifyGod. And if we should be in doubt about that, we should not infer that thereis no such reason, even if we don’t see how any reason would justifyGod andeven if we lack evidential and non-evidential warrant for theism.To do otherwise exhibits an unseemly lack ofintellectual humility.
One objection to Agnosticism is the Moral Skepticism Objection—or the Objection, for short—a simple version of which goes like this. Let Ashley’s suffering name the evil done totwelve-year old Ashley Jones and what she suffered and lost in Stanwood,Washington, September 21, 1997, who while babysitting her neighbor’skids, was raped and bludgeoned to death by an escapee from a localjuvenile detention center. Suppose we could have easily intervened toprevent Ashley’s suffering without any cost to ourselves. In that case, itwould be absurd to suppose that we should be in doubt about whether weshould have intervened. Obviously we should have intervened. Agnosticism,however, implies otherwise. It tells us that since we should be in doubtabout whether the goods we know of constitute a representative sample ofall the goods there are, we should be in doubt about whether there is areason that would justify God’s nonintervention. But if that’s right, thenso is this: since we should be in doubt about whether the goods we knowof constitute a representative sample of all the goods there are, we shouldalso be in doubt about whether there is a reason that would justify ournonintervention, in which case we should be in doubt about whether weshould have intervened. So Agnosticism implies that we should be in doubtabout whether we should have intervened. But that’s absurd. Obviously weshould have. So Agnosticism is false.
It will prove useful to summarize the main argumentof the Objection:
1. If Agnosticism is true, then we should be in doubt about whetherwe should have intervened to prevent Ashley’s suffering (if we could have).
2. We should not be in doubt about whether we should have intervened.
3. So, Agnosticism is false.
I suspect thatthe Objection fails. Stephen Maitzen thinks otherwise.In what follows, I willassess his defense of the Objection after I summarize my reasons for suspicion.Before I proceed, though, let me clarify some things about Agnosticism.
First, Agnosticism is not skeptical theism. It is consistent withatheism, naturalism in particular. Second, when the Agnostic says that we should be in doubt about something, she does not mean that we should doubt that it is so. For one to be in doubt about something is for one neither to believe nor disbelieve it as a result of one’s grounds for it seeming to be roughly on a par with one’s grounds for its denial. If one doubts that something is so, one is at least strongly inclined to disbelieve it. Being in doubt lacks that implication.
Third preliminary: according to Maitzen,
If we believe theism, we should believe that Ashley’s suffering was a consequence of something necessary or optimal for her own net benefit, whereas if we’re Agnostics we should be in doubt about whether it was.[2]
This is false, and not just because theism does not entail that “Ashley’s suffering was a consequence of something necessary or optimal for her own net benefit”.[3] For even if it did entail that, it is not true that “if we’re Agnostics we should be in doubt about whether it was”.That’s because of the“even if” clauses that define Agnosticism. Here’s how they work. Suppose you’re a theist who thinks your warrant for theism swamps that for atheism, so much so that you’re virtually certain there’s a God, and suppose you thinkthat theism entails that “Ashley’s suffering was a consequence of something necessary or optimal for her own net benefit”. Suppose further that you take yourself to see how “Ashley’s suffering was a consequence of something necessary or optimal for her own net benefit”. In that case, you’llbe apt to inferthat we should not be in doubt about whether it was.Still, you might wellput yourself in the shoes of those who disagree with you rosy assessment of theism and theodicy and reflect on what we should think from their perspective; and you might express the conclusion of your reflections as follows: “even if we don’t see how any reason would justify God and even if there is no evidence and non-evidential warrant for God’s existence, we should not infer that there is no such reason”.[4]That’s howan Agnostic can consistently be a theist while not being in doubt about whether “Ashley’s suffering was a consequence of something necessary or optimal for her own net benefit”.
Unlike the Agnostic I have just represented, in what follows the Agnostic I will represent holds that the premise of the Inference really is true, that we really don’t see how any reason we know of would justify God in permitting all the evil in the world.
Fourth, when the Agnostic says that we don’t see how any reason we know of would justify God in permitting all the evil in the world, she means that we don’t see how any reason we know of would fully justify God in permitting all of it. This is compatible with her seeing how some reason we know of would fully justify God in permitting some of it, perhaps even a great deal of it; and it is compatible with her seeing how some reason we know of would partially justify God in permitting all of it.
Fifthand final preliminary:Maitzen says that I aim
to rebut the objection by rebutting it as an objection to the skeptical part of skeptical theism, which part he [that is, me, Dan Howard-Snyder] labels “Agnosticism,” a label he intentionally capitalizes, presumably in order to distinguish this position from others more commonly called “agnosticism.”[5]
This is mistaken. As I said,Agnosticism is a version of agnosticism about the Inference.[6] I did not use a capital ‘A’ in order to distinguish Agnosticism from other positions more commonly called “agnosticism”. I used a capital ‘A’ to give it pride of place among other versions of agnosticismabout the Inference. (Think Alston, Bergmann, Rea, Wykstra etc.) Thus, Agnosticism is not “the skeptical part of skeptical theism”; it isfalse that “in all essential respects Agnosticism just isthe skeptical part of skeptical theism”; it is not truethat “[s]keptical theism adds theism to Agnosticism”.[7]
To illustrate the difference between Agnosticism and other versions of agnosticism about the Inference, and to underscore the importanceit can make, consider a familiar variation on the Inference:
The Inference*. No good we know of would justify God in permitting all the evil in the world; therefore, probably no good would do so.[8]
Now recall the agnostic part, or a part of the agnostic part, of Michael Bergmann’s agnosticism:
ST1.We have no good reason for thinking that the possible goods we know of are representative of the possible goods there are.[9]
ST1 targets the Inference*via(something at least equivalent to)
Bergmann’s Specific Principle. We should believe that, probably, no good would justify God in permitting all the evil in the worldon the basis of no good we know of would do soonly if we have good reason for thinking that the possible goods we know of are representative of the possible goods there are.
I lose sleep over Bergmann’s Specific Principle. For consider the following question: what makes it the case thatno good we know of would justify Godis a truth-conducive basis for believing thatno good would justify God? Answer: the possible goods we know of are representative of the possible goods there are. In effect, then, Bergmann’s Specific Principle tells us to believe that a population has a certain property on the basis of a sample uniformly possessing it only if we have good reason to think that the latter is a truth-conducive basis for believing the former. Sincethere’s nothing special about this belief, its epistemic status, and the basis for it, it appears that, if we affirm Bergmann’s Specific Principle, we’ll also have to affirm
Bergmann’s General Principle. We should believe something on the basis of something else only if we have good reason for thinking that the latter is a truth-conducive basis for believing the former.
Bergmann’s General Principle has notoriously undesirable epistemic consequences. That’s one reason why I worry about joininghim in his approach to the Inference.
(I should add that Bergmann nowhere endorses the principles I have named after him.I suspect that he might respond to my worry in something like the following way: restrict the application of the General Principle to occasions on which we harbor some doubt about whether the basis of our belief is truth-conducive, and restrict the application of the Specific Principle in the same way.So restricted, I’d sleep much better—although I sometimes stay awake over ST1 itself. I mean, if we have a large enough sample that over a long period of time remainsuniformly thus-and-so, doesn’t that give us some reason to think that the whole population is thus-and-so, just a tiny little bit of reason? If so, then, contrary to ST1,it’s not true that we have no reason to think that the possible goods we know of are representative of the possible goods there are.)
Now contrast Bergmann’s approach with the Agnostic’s approach. According to the Agnostic,
AT1. We should be in doubt about whether the goods we know of constitute a representative sample of all the goods there are.
AT1 targets the Inference* via (something at least equivalent to)
The Agnostic’s Specific Principle. We should believe that, probably, no good would justify God in permitting all the evil in the world on the basis of no good we know of would do so only ifit is not the case that we should be in doubt about whether the possible goods we know of are representative of the possible goods there are.
For reasons like those mentioned above,it appears that, if we affirm the Agnostic’s Specific Principle, we’ll also have to affirm
The Agnostic’s General Principle. We should believe something on the basis of something else only if it is not the case that we should be in doubt about whether the latter is a truth-conducive basis for believing the former.
None of the notoriously undesirable epistemic consequences of Bergmann’s General Principle are consequences of the Agnostic’s General Principle (and nothing similar to the concern I raised for ST1 itself can be raised for AT1 itself). Indeed, the Agnostic’s General Principle seems quite sensible. Upshot: Agnosticism, with a capital ‘A’, differs importantly from some other versions of agnosticism about the Inference.
I now turn to a summary of my assessment of the Objection.
I claimed that our assessment of the Objection should reflect the epistemic implications of our moral theories or principles, which come in two types: (i) those that posit right- and wrong-making features of an act that should leave us in doubt about its moral status and (ii) those that posit right- and wrong-making features of an act that should not leave us in doubt about its moral status. Any theory or principle of the first typeis an instance of Moral Inaccessibilism; any theory or principle of the second type is an instance of Moral Accessibilism. If we endorse an instance of Inaccessibilism, then, prior to our assessment of the Objection, we should be prepared to deny premise (2), while if we endorse an instance of Accessibilism, then, prior to our assessment of the Objection, we should be primed to denypremise (1). Either way, the epistemic implications of our moral theories or principles imply that the Objection is unsound.
To illustrate how a moral theory or principle mightprepare us to deny premise (2), I stated three theories or principles that take the total consequences of an act very, very seriously, and I argued that if any of them is correct, we should be in doubt about whether we should have intervened to prevent Ashley’s suffering (if we could have).One of them was
Objective Maximizing Act Consequentialism(OMAC). An agent’s act is permissible solely in virtue of the fact that its total consequences are no overall worse than those of any option open to him; otherwise, it is impermissible.
I have in mind a concept of “consequence” that implies what many of my consequentialist friends say, namely that what you do among the options open to you will have ramifications until the end of time and all of them are morally relevant.[10]So understood, OMACimplies that we should be in doubt about whether we should have intervened. For we are in no position to tell whether the unforeseeable consequences of intervention are better than nonintervention,and the unforeseeable consequences swamp the foreseeable ones; thus, we should be in doubt about whether the total consequences of our intervening are overall worse thanour not intervening. In that case, we should be in doubt about whether we should have intervenedand, prior to assessing the Objection, we should be prepared to deny premise (2)—if we endorse OMAC.
To underscore how darkness envelops us on this score, I noted how much of our behavior has massive and inscrutable causal ramifications.Killing and engendering, and refraining from killing and engendering, ramify in massive ways because they are directly identity-affecting actions. They directly “make a difference to the identities of future persons [that is, a difference to what people there will be] and these differences are apt to amplify exponentially down the generations”.[11] Moreover, much of our other behavior is indirectly identity-affecting. To illustratethe general point, imagine Richard, a first-century bandit in southernGermany who, while raiding a small village, spares the life of a pregnantwoman, Angie.Angie, it turns out, is the great-great- . . . [add 97 ‘great-’s] . . . great-grandmother of Adolf Hitler. By permitting Angie to live, Richard played a role in the occurrence of the Holocaust.[12] Moreover, anyone who refrained from killing any of the intermediate ancestors of Hitler before they engendered the relevant child, or assisted in introducing the parents ofeach generation, or refrained from introducing them to others, and so on,played a role as well. Which one of these people throughout the generationshad an inkling that their behavior would contribute to such a horror? (For sources of massive causal ramification distinct from identity-affecting actions, see Lenman 2000, 347-348.)
As it was with Angie and Richard, so it is with Ashley and us. Weare in the dark about the unforeseeable consequences of our intervening and not intervening; moreover, the foreseeable consequences are but a drop inthe ocean of the total consequences, and all but that drop is inscrutable tous. So, if we endorse OMAC, then when we turn to assess the Objection we should already be in doubt about whether we shouldhave intervened; we should already be prepared todeny premise (2).[13]
To illustrate the point that if we endorse an instance of Accessibilism, then, prior to our assessment of the Objection, we should already be primed to deny premise (1), I stated three moral theories or principles that take the consequences of an act much, much less seriously than OMAC and I argued that if any of them is correct, then we should be primed to deny that Agnosticism implies that we should be in doubt about whether we should prevent Ashley’s suffering (if we could have). One of them was
Requirement Rs. Intervene to prevent horrific evil you can prevent, unless you believe there is better reason for you not to intervene.
My argument for concluding that, givenRs, Agnosticism does not imply that we should be in doubt about whether we should prevent Ashley’s suffering was roughly this: given Rs, the presumption of intervention can be overridden only by our believing there is better reason for usnot to intervene, and our not believing there is better reason for us to intervene is compatible with someone else believing there is better reason for them not to intervene. Thus, it might well be the case that we should be in doubt aboutwhether there is some reason we don’t know of that would justify someoneelse’s permitting it, e.g. God’s, even though we should not be in doubt about whether weshould prevent it.