Environmental problems demanding co-operation in the Eastern Nile basin
TisIsat Fall/ Blue Nile Fall byTorleifSvensson
Source: adopted from Yacob, 2007
MSc. Thesis
Development & International Relations
JUNE 2008
Environmental problems demanding co-operation in the Eastern Nile basin
Supervisor:
Jens Muller
Student:
YibabeDemtse
Development & International Relations
DENMARK
June 2008
Acknowledgements
Before everybody else, I praise God for each and every move I made. Everything has been succeeded with the help of him.
It is absolutely correct to thank my parents whose prayers and thoughts have been always with me.
I would like to express my deep whole-hearted gratitude and indebtedness to my advisor Jens Muller, for his guidance and patience.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
TITLE: Environmental problem demanding co-operation in the eastern Nile basin
Chapter one: Introduction………………………………………………………………………………………………………….1
1.1Background of the problem ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….4
1.2Description of the study area …………………………………………………………………………………………………………...7
1.3Theoretical frame work………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………9
Chapter two:Environmental degradation in highland Ethiopia…………………………………………………14
2.1 The extent of deforestation and soil erosion…………………………………………………………………………………………14
2.1.1 Deforestation ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..14
2.1.2 Soil erosion……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………...16
2.2 The state of the environment in the Ethiopian portion of the Nile basin…………………………………………….19
2.2.1 The Tekeze river basin…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….20
2.2.2 The Abbay river basin……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..20
2.2.3 The Baro-akobo river basin……………………………………………………………………………………………………………21
Chapter three: Slit accumulation and water supply problems in the downstream countries23
3.1 slit accumulation in the downstream countries: its extent……………………………………………………………………23
3.1.1 General explanation………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..23
3.1.2 Slit accumulation in the Roseirs dam in Sudan………………………………………………………………………………..25
3.1.3 Slit accumulation in the Khashim El-Girba reservoir in Sudan………………………………………………………….26
3.1.4 Slit accumulation in the Aswan high dam in Egypt………………………………………………………………………….27
3.2 water supply problems in the downstream countries………………………………………………………………………….28
Chapter four: Impacts of environmental degradation ……………………………………………………………30
4.1 Impact on Ethiopia ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………30
4.1.1 Impact on production……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………30
4.1.2 Loss of biodiversity…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………32
4.1.3 Drought intensification …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………34
4.2 Impact on the downstream countries………………………………………………………………………………………………….41
4.2.1 Impact of slit accumulation……………………………………………………………………………………………………………41
4.2.2 Impact of drought on the water supply of downstream countries …………………………………………………43
Chapter five: The need for and impediments to cooperation…………………………………………………..46
5.1 The need for co-operation…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….46
5.2 Major impediments to co-operation……………………………………………………………………………………………………47
5.2.1 Unchanged status quo……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………47
5.2.2 Mutually exclusive doctrine of the lower riparian states………………………………………………………………..49
5.2.2.2 Ethiopia’s appropriation doctrine ……………………………………………………………………………………………….56
Chapter six: Tendencies towards co-operation…………………………………………………………………………61
6.1 Current situations in the basin and the world……………………………………………………………………………………..61
6.2 The Nile basin initiative (NBI)……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….65
Chapter seven: Analysis ………………………………………………………………………………………………………….75
Bibliography……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………87
List of Acronyms
BCM-Billion Cubic Meters
EFAP-Ethiopia’s Forestry Action Program
ENSAP- Eastern Nile Subsidiary Action Program
ENTRO-Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office
ESTAC-Ethio-Sudan Technical Advisory Committee
FAO-Food and Agriculture Organization
HAD-High Aswan Dam
IMF-International Monetary Fund
ITCZ-Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone
LDCS-Less Developed Countries
MASL-Meters Above Sea Level
MM3-Million Cubic Meters
MW-Mega Watts
MWR-Ministry of Water Resources
NEL-SAP-Equatorial Nile Subsidiary Action Program
NMSA-National Meteorological Service Agency
RRC-Relief and Rehabilitation Commission
SAP-Subsidiary Action Program
SOL-Southern Oscillation Index
SST-Sea-Surface-Temperature
SVP-Shared Vision Program
WB-World Bank
WMO-World Meteorological Organization
1. CHAPTER ONE
1.1 Introduction
Nile River has been the main cause of suspicion and tensions between Ethiopia and lower basin states (Egypt and Sudan). The old mistrust and tensions have been centred around the fear that Ethiopia might block the safe flow of the Nile water in to Sudan and Egypt. Currently, however, nature itself is likely to impose its own checks on the flow of the Nile (by means of increasing silt accumulation in the dams, river and irrigation canals, and frequent droughts) due to environmental degradation in the highlands of Ethiopia. This problem seems beyond any one country’s control, thus necessitating co-operation instead of competition and conflict. Thus, it is these problems that initiated the study on the topic.
The Nile is the longest river in the world, in terms of its geography, flowing 6,825 km over 35 degrees latitude from south to north. It is one of the greatest wonders of nature, with unfading legend through the civilization of olden days, its basin embraces some three million km² encompassing the north eastern Africa and equatorial lakes region. Included within the Nile basin are: one third of Ethiopia, a significant portion of Sudan, almost the entire cultivated and settled lands of Egypt, the whole of Uganda, parts of Kenya, Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda , Congo democratic republic and Eritrea. The basin (3352710km2) is the third in the world, following those of the Amazon and the Congo.
The Nile water system consists of several tributaries and headwater lakes. Lake Victoria in the equatorial region and Lake Tana in the north-western Ethiopia are the most important natural reservoirs in the Nile upstream. Of the four main tributaries, the Abay (Blue Nile) originates from the equatorial lakes region. The Ethiopian head- water provide 86 per cent of the entire Nile water, while the remaining 14 per cent come through the White Nile system of the equatorial lakes region.
Egypt and Sudan are net recipient of the Nile water that come from both head-water sub-systems. In view of the on-going Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) the basin is divided into two sub-systems, namely the eastern Nile and the equatorial Nile. The two sub-basins provide two contextual realms for strategically conceived subsidiary scale. The equatorial Nile sub-basin comprises Burundi, DRC (Democratic Republic of Congo), Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda, while the eastern Nile basin comprises Ethiopia and Eritrea.
Egypt and Sudan, as downstream countries relative to both the eastern and equatorial sub-basin system, are mapped together with two sub-basins. Egypt and Sudan are therefore recipients of water from upstream areas of the two sub-basin states.
This thesis attempts to assess environmental problems in the Nile eastern Nile basin. Particularly the study attempts to examine environmental degradation in highland Ethiopia in general and the state of the environment in the upper catchments of Tekeze/Atbara, Abbay(Blue Nile) and Baro-akobo river basins in particular as well as the extent of silt accumulation and water supply problems in the downstream countries.
The result revealed that the upper catchments of Tekeze/ Atbara, Abbay (Blue Nile) and BaroAkobo river basins (particularly the 1st two) are nearly devoid of forest or vegetation cover. Experiencing severe soil erosion, and thus severely degraded. Deforestation and its resultant soil erosion in these area is going on unabated, and has resulted in loss of agricultural production, biodiversity (particularly in the source area-Ethiopia), silt accumulation in the downstream countries and drought intensification in the eastern Nile basin. Resource degradation in the sub-basin coupled with rapidly growing population has resulted in apparent resource (water) scarcity. The results also reveal that environmental problems have become the common challenge facing the eastern Nile basin states.
Instead of combating this common challenge, the riparian countries in the sub-basin have distanced themselves by mutually exclusive doctrines and self –serving and hegemonistic tendencies. It is believed that failure to address core legal and institutional issues may spoil the sprit of cooperation among the riparian states. The objective of this thesis is to assess the extent
of environmental degradation in the highland Ethiopia and silt accumulation and water supply problem in the downstream countries, their impacts, and assess the need for and obstacles to cooperation among the sub-basin states. The specific objectives are to:
- Assess the extent of environmental degradation in highland Ethiopia
- Examine the extent of silt accumulation and water supply problem in the downstream countries
- Explain the impact of environmental degradation and silt accumulation in the sub-basin
- Assess the need for and major obstacle to concerted actions to solve land degradation problems in the eastern Nile basin; and
- Assess possibilities (for the sub–basin states) of coping with these problems.
Further the this thesis concentrate on the three countries, Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia , which are the ultimate need of water, considered to be affected by the environmental problem and deals with the accords involving them, or concluded on their behave, during the colonial period.
Figure 1 Showing the African portion of the Nile basin
Figure 1Source: YacobArsano (2007) “Ethiopia and the Nile dilemmas of national and regional hydro politics” P.16
- Background to the problem
Ethiopia (the source of more than 86 percent of the Nile’s water) today is in the state of deepening ecological crisis due to misguided and unregulated modifications of its environment. As Markos Ezra (1997:79) noted, ‘the areas of rain-fed agriculture most under pressure from ecological degradation in the horn of Africa lie in the northern and central highlands of Ethiopia’. The high land Ethiopia (areas of over 1500 masl), which make up about 45 percent of the total land area and support about 85 percent of human population and two- thirds of animal population as well as produce nearly all the of the countries staple food and cash crops, are highly degraded (vegetation cover removed, soils eroded, etc) (Tesfaye 1999:104; Solomon, 1994: Kefialew, 1997:62).
Different writers (Solomon, 1994:4; Thomas, 1991:2) have widely reported that as recently as beginning of the 20th century, 40 percent of the highlands was covered by forests. According to these sources, the forest cover around the end of the 20th century was estimated to be less than 3 percent. And forest clearance is continuing at an estimated rate of ‘about 8,000 ha per annum in the closed forests and 80,000 ha per annum in the open forests (Markos, 1997:79). On the other hand, EFAP (1994:2) estimated that the annual loss of the high forest/natural forest area is between 150,000 and 200,000 ha per year. On the positive side, only 13,000 ha were afforested in the 1980s annually (Markos, 1997:70, Tesfaye, 1999:102). EFAP (1994:2) exclaims that, if the present rate of deforestation continues, the area covered by natural forests in the year 2010 may be reduced to scattered minor stands of heavily disturbed forests in the remote/in inaccessible parts of the country.
Tesfaye (1999:102) reported that the destruction of forest has been spreading from the highly populated, over cultivated and drought –afflicted northern parts (mainly Wollo and Tigray) to the relatively sparsely populated and forested southern regions (Illubabor, Wollaga and Kafa) by means of the government resettlement programs of the 1980s. This implies that population resettlement aggravates land degradation.
Deforestation is one of the factors that cause increased runoff, which leads to soil erosion and ultimate to land degradation. As Williams and Bailing (1995: 14) describe, ´the sparser the planet covers, the more vulnerable the top soil to detachment and removed by raindrop impact, surface runoff and wind´.
In highland Ethiopia, soil degradation has not only been a continuous threat: it is now more serious than ever before (Solomon, 1994:1). It is serious in its severity, extent and the rate at which it progress. According to estimate by Constable (1984: xiii), over half of the high lands or 270,000 km² are already significantly eroded and left with relatively shallow soils; and over 20,000 km² of former or present farm lands have reached the point of no return to fertility.
Rates of soil erosion are high, though estimates of soil loss from the highland vary widely. It is generally agreed that erosion causes cropped areas to lose on average 100 tons of soil per hectare every year (Constable, 1984: XV), even if erosion rates stay at the 1983/84 levels, land covered by soils less than 10 centimeters deep ( and thus incapable of sustaining cropping) will increase five –fold to around 100,000km² by the year 2010. As soil depth decreases, croplands convert to grass lands and finally to bare rock.
Land degradation affects both natural and man-made water flows and storage regimes so that the extent and frequency of flooding increase in wet seasons and drought in dry seasons (Constable, 1984: XV).
Dassalegn (2001:42) asserted that land degradation in highland Ethiopia has resultedin: (1) damaging the effective life of dams and reservoirs in Sudan and Egypt through siltation and sedimentation; (2) increasing the frequency and the magnitude of drought in highland Ethiopia, both of which affect the quality and quantity of the Nile waters. These in turn have resulted in the water supply problems in the downstream countries.
In the past Egypt and Sudan had attempted to secure their water supply by: (1) legal means (establishing legal regimes between themselves), (2) building high dams (storage regimes) that can store water for the period of low flow.
Today, however, nature itself is likely to impose its own checks on the flow of the Nile due to the combination of continued degradation with frequent droughts. Storage regimes, particularly in the Sudan are being silted up, losing their storage capacity; and Sudan and mainly to land degradation in the source area-Ethiopia highlands. As a result of this, it seems that the lower riparian states (Egypt and Sudan) are in confusion with regard to what to do concerning their water security. The choice is between continuing the old conflict-laden attitudes and trends (though political and diplomatic means) in the basin, While the former leads to mutual harm, later will lead to mutual benefit.
As stated by Renner (1991:108), environmental degradation is a new force shaping governmental policies and international relations, both in negative sense (tensions over resource depletion or degradation) and positive sense (the necessity of new forms of cooperation-rules and institutions-to address common dangers). In this sense, the eastern Nile basin could not be an exception. This is to mean that environmental degradation in high land Ethiopia with its impacts on the water supply of the downstream countries can bring new tensions in the region unless the sub-basin countries co-operate to solve the problem. It means that the impact of land degradation in the sub-basin can hardly be solved by means other than cooperation. So far there is no genuine and effective co-operation approaches to the sustainable utilization and management of the Nile waters. But this does not mean that the impasse in the sub-basin has completely been broken.
1.1Description of the study
The high lands of Ethiopia include areas with altitude above 1500masl. They cover about 45 percent of Ethiopian’s land area, accommodate about 85 percent and 75 percent of human and livestock population, as well as generate more than 90 percent of the country’s agriculture output (Solomon, 1994: 23).
The substantial portion of this area has slopes in excess of or greater than 20 percent (kefiale, 1997:62). GetahunBikora(2001:33), However, has wrote that nearly 70 percent of the Ethiopian highlands have slopes in excess of 30 percent, creating favorable conditions for accelerated soil erosion.
Climate in the highlands is moderate and annual precipitation ranges from 800 to over 2200 mm (Shibru and Kifle, 1999:18). Of the total are, 60 percent is reported to be suitable for agricultural purpose (Shibru and Kifle, 1999:18). It seems that because of this the area is densely populated.
This thesis focus on the north, central and southwest highlands, where most rivers (Blue Nile-Abbay, Tekeze/Atabra, and Baro-Akobo) originate and flow towards Sudan and hence to Egypt; forming part of the system of the Nile waters. Stated differently, the study focuses on the upper catchments of Tekeze/Atbara, Blue Nile/Abbay and BaroAkobo river basins, which forms the Ethiopian portion of the Nile basin. Of these river basins emphasis will be given to the upper catchments of Tekeze/Atbara and Abbay/Blue Nile because these catchments are suffering from severe land degradation as compared to the upper catchments of the Baro-Akobo basin.
The Tekeze/Atbara sub-basin: the Tekeze sub-basin, whose upper stream rise in northern Ethiopia, replenishes the major Nile north of Khartoum perennially. The rivers Angarab and Guang are the main Ethiopian tributaries of the Tekeze. At the one part the river marks the Ethio-eriterian border. The Tekeze sub-system contributes 8.2 BCM to the total annual flow of the Nile waters. The climatic pattern and the physical environment of the Tekeze sub-system are very alike to those of the Abbay.For this reason, the river’s headwater area is also prone to a high degree of soil erosion and land degradation, as a result incurring a loss of 120 million cubic meter topsoil to Ethiopia (Yacob, 2007:50)
The Abbay/Blue Nile sub-basin: the Abbay sub-basin (known as the Blue Nile outside of the Ethiopian boundary) start off in Ethiopia’s northwestern plateau. Its numerous head-waters include Lake Tana and the rivers Dabus, Didessa, Fincha, Guder, Muger, Jamma, Wolaka, Bashilo, Birr, Beles, Dinder and Rahad. Its catchments area of (324,500km square) is more than twice smaller than that of the White Nile, whereas its water contribution to the main Nile is more than four times as big as that of the White Nile.
The Abbay River contributes 52.62 billion cubic meters (Ethiopia, FDRE, 1999) to the sum annual volume of the main Nile measured at Aswan High Dam. As there is high degree of seasonal inconsistency in the Ethiopian plateau, the seasonal flow of the Abbay varies dramatically.
The major rainy season in the Ethiopian plateau is from June to September. The most runoff is in august and is 60 times greater than the minimum runoff in the month of February. The physical nature of the basin and the seasonal concentration of the water runoff have resulted in a high amount of soil erosion every year. This advance results in land degradation in upstream Ethiopia and siltation in the downstream Sudan and Egypt. According to one recent report, Ethiopia’s annual loss of topsoil is 405 million cubic meters from Abbay basin.As a result the Khasim El Girba Dam on Atbara lost more than 60 percent of its storage capacity between the year 1964 and 1997. During the same period the Roseries Dam on the Blue Nile lost all its dead storage volume to sedimentation, and the live storage was getting depleted (Yacob, 2007:50).