WELBOURN NEIGHBOURHOOD PLAN – SOME THOUGHTS ON NEIGHBOURHOOD PLANHOUSING POLICY
As a community, before we enter into any plans for new housing development in Welbourn, there are a number of issues we should consider. Society is changing fast and what were considered priorities for my generation may be different for today’s generation. A hundred years ago the inhabitants of rural villages like Welbourn were born, lived, worked and died in the parish. Just about everything they needed for their daily lives could be obtained in the village. Travel outside the parish was limited and mostly unnecessary. Most were employed in agriculture. Change was gradual evolution.
Today our community is faced withthe challenge of constructing a Plan that has to dictate Welbourn’s future development for the next 20 years. We have to make educated forecasts about the changes and demands in the future. We can’t simply look at the current trends and assume they will continue into the future. Everything is changing and at an ever increasing pace. So how do we make the correct assumptions? A developer wants to build houses because he wants to make a profit. The national Government wants to build houses because it believes it will kick-start the economy. Our local councils want to build houses because the national government has given them targetsand told them to get on with it. They don’t care where the houses are sited as long as they get built. We, on the other hand, care about the impact on our villageand its inhabitants.More houses will be needed, undoubtedly, but how do we determine just how manyand what type should be built in Welbourn?
These are thequestions we need to answer when constructing our Neighbourhood Plan. Below I list some issues for consideration. I send these out to provoke discussion but not to dictate policy. You will have your own views and no doubt things I have not thought of. The overall question is ‘how can we plan for something if we don’t know what the trends will be in the future?’. Somehow or other, we have to find the answers to the questions raised below.
I have looked at the issues from the viewpoint of four different age groups. Much of the content is derived from studying the responses received from our village survey conducted in 2012.
Young People below adult age(YPs)– It is estimated we have about 90 youngsters below the age of 18. Of the 30 or so respondents in the 2012 survey, all but one are still in education. Looking at the survey responses, the most extreme case is one parent who said his eight year old would require an affordable home in Welbourn in 2022. The question this raises is “How does that parent know?” Can we expect any YP or their parents to know at this point in their lives what housing needs they will have in the future? Given that most of the YP respondents said Welbourn isn’t a young person’s village, surely we must conclude that many of people in this age group will want to live somewhere else after they have finished their education. Factors driving these youngsters away from Welbourn include such items as (a) not many job opportunities or the right type of job opportunity locally (b) high and increasing cost of transport (car purchase, insurance, fuel, maintenance) (c) poor local bus service (d) poor social facilities for this age group.
Will the number of Welbourn’s YPs increase or decrease over the next 20 years? Do we know? What is the national trend for rural villages? Does this data exist and if so, where can we obtain it? What assumptions should we make in our Neighbourhood Plan?
Elderly People (EPs)(ie for the purposes of this document = past retirement age) – Welbourn already caters for a large number of elderly people through the provision of council owned OAP bungalows, private Care Homes (NB: their residents were not included in the survey) and those in private dwellings. According to national statistics, the UK population is getting older, so should we expect Welbourn’s EP numbers to increase? The answer may be no. I suspect that many of the current EPs were born in a time when most people of their generation grew up and worked in the same place where they were born. Will future generations do the same? Many old people want to live close to their adult children but as cost and social pressures lead to an increasing number of younger people migrating to urban areas, will EPs forsake the countryside and follow suit? When you think about it, the cost and social arguments that apply to YPs also apply to EPs. They are miles from the main shopping areas, doctors, hospitals etc, mobility is an issue as is the cost of getting to getting to those places. The Daily Mail 16th February 2013 stated that average annual heating oil costs for people living in rural areas jumped from £1350 in 2011 to £1750 in 2012, an increase of 20%. Many elderly rural people are in danger of not being able to afford heating. Rural social facilities are poor when compared to towns and cities. People are living longer and want a good social life after retirement. Wouldn’t the majority of EPs be better off living in a town? Future generations may conclude they want to live in a more urban environment where costs are lower, social life is better and essential services are nearer.What assumptions should we make in our Neighbourhood Plan?
What is the average term of occupancy of the OAP bungalows? Will demand increase or decrease in the future? What assumptions should we make in our Neighbourhood Plan?
Middle Age Adults (MAs) – According to the survey, 300+ jobs exist within the Welbourn parish but only 44 are filled by locals. The rest were filled by people who travel to Welbourn from other locations. Is this because they can’t find or afford a house in Welbourn or is it because they don’t want to live in Welbourn – for all the reasons already mentioned. Their partners might have jobs in another location. Their children may attend a school of parents’ preferred choice (ie, not in Welbourn). So is there a need for more housing to satisfy this group?
The majority of the MAs are likely to be people with families. The school must be an attraction for the parents but then the survey said 69% of our youngsters go to a school not located in Welbourn. Look at the bus stops in Welbourn each morning and see how many of our YPs travel to schools other than the local Wm Robertson.Yet this is the one group that should be able to afford the higher costs of living in a rural location – or at least some of them can. Most will have jobs, cars etc. I would guess that the majority will have or be about to start a family. They need family housing of three or more bedrooms. Income levels will vary, so there is a need for different types of housing right across the spectrum.
Given the additional costs associated with living in the country, especially travel, will demand for housing in villages like Welbourn increase or decrease in the next twenty years? If so, by how much? What assumptions should we make in our Neighbourhood Plan? A report by Money Mail in April 2012 estimated that a family living in a rural area needs to earn 40% or £13,740 or £264 a week more than a family in an urban area to pay for the additional costs of energy bills, insurance, transport and other hidden costs. It stated that a rural family with two young children needs an income of £50,540 to live comfortably. This includes the cost of childcare, running a car, heating,mortgage and a host of hidden extras. Even for those on medium to high salaries, this is a high penalty.
Young Adults (YAs) – this group are just starting their adult life andfor most they are moving into jobs and careers for the first time, starting a family etc. Housing is high on their priority list. They need somewhere to set up home. For those set on private purchase, cost is a huge obstacle. Deposits of 30% are now the norm and for most this can dictate they have to wait until they are in their 30s before contemplating purchase. The Home Builders Federation Report 2013 states that the average person between the ages of 22-29 has a monthly income of £1274 after tax. After paying rent, council tax and utility bills, they are left with just £557. They cannot afford to buy a house, let alone save up for a deposit. This must mean there will be an increase in demand for rented accommodation, either private, housing association or council owned. Once again, high transport costs will mean that many will want to live close to their employment location, schools etc, which in turn suggest urban rather than rural. The findings of the Money Mail report already mentioned above plus the current recession is forcing our young people to carry out a strict financial assessment before they decide where to live and if they can afford it. The romantic view of countryside living is rapidly disappearing under the weight of financial penalties.
Then there are those on very low incomes that cannot afford either rent or purchase. They need a house but do they want to be marooned in a location like Welbourn, miles from anywhere with few job prospects, high transport costs (probably cannot afford a car) and an expensive bus service that only runs north to south (not east to west) and so infrequently that shift work etc is impossible? And if unemployed, limited job opportunities and facing high costs just getting to job interviews, a poor and expensive local bus service, miles from the doctors, job centre, hospital, supermarkets, poor social facilities etc, etc. For an Affordable Home resident living on benefits in council rent subsidised housing with no job who cannot afford their own transport, life would be very bleak living in Welbourn with its limited facilities. This must be true of many small villages up and down the country.
So what will be the future demand from this group in Welbourn? Given the option, will most chose to live in an urban environment where costs are much lower?So what assumptions should we make for the next 20 years in our Neighbourhood Plan?
The 2012 survey raised more questions than it answered for every age group, answers we must find or at least make a judgement call before we write our Neighbourhood Plan. This is the challenge we face over the next few months.
John Oakley 07.02.2013