Report Summary Sheet

Agenda item:

Cabinet

Report Summary Sheet

Date: / 19 February 2014
Subject: / Treasury Strategy & Budgetary Framework 2014/15
Portfolio: / Finance and Civic Affairs (Councillor D Harvey)
From: / Director – Finance and Procurement
Summary: / The Local Government Act 2003 and the Chartered Institute of Public Finance and Accountancy (CIPFA) Code of Practice for Treasury Management in the Public Services 2009 (the Code) require Council’s to “have regard to” the Prudential Code and to set Prudential Indicators for the forthcoming 3 years to ensure that the Council’s capital investment plans are affordable, prudent and sustainable. The regulations also require an Annual Investment Strategy, Treasury Management Strategy and Minimum Revenue Provision (MRP) Policy to be approved.
Recommendations:

• That the proposed Treasury Strategy and Budgetary Framework 2014/15, as detailed in Appendix G, be agreed and submitted to full Council for approval.

• That as the recommendations from this report require Council approval on the 19th February 2014, this report be marked not for call-in on the grounds of urgency.

Reasons: / The Council must approve the Treasury Strategy, Prudential and Treasury Indicators and an MRP policy statement, as required by the CIPFA Code, before the commencement of the financial year.
Options: / None
Subject to call-in: / No
Forward plan: / Yes
Corporate priorities: / All
Relevant statutes or policy: / Local Government Act 2003
CIPFA Code of Practice for Treasury Management
Equal opportunity implications:
None arising directly from the report
Human resources implications:
None
Financial implications: / Considered throughout the report
Risk management implications:
Investment and borrowing decisions will be based on the strategy as contained within the report and with approved counterparties.
Environmental implications:
None arising directly from the report
Legal implications: / The Local Government Act 2003 requires Councils to have regard to the CIPFA Code and for Councils to approve an Annual Treasury Strategy, Prudential and Treasury Indicators and an MRP Policy Statement before the start of the financial year.
Contact details: / Craig Pugh
Treasury & Technical Manager
Ext 6104

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AGENDA ITEM NO.
NUNEATON AND BEDWORTH BOROUGH COUNCIL
Report to : / Cabinet – 19thFebruary 2014
From : / Director – Finance and Procurement
Subject : / Treasury Strategy & Budgetary Framework 2014/15
Portfolio : / Finance and Civic Affairs (Councillor D Harvey)

1.Purpose

1.1The Local Government Act 2003 and the Chartered Institute of Public Finance and Accountancy (CIPFA) Code of Practice for Treasury Management in the Public Services 2009 (the Code) require Council’s to “have regard to” the Prudential Code and to set Prudential Indicators for the forthcoming 3 years to ensure that the Council’s capital investment plans are affordable, prudent and sustainable. Regulations also require an Annual Investment Strategy, Treasury Management Strategy and Minimum Revenue Provision (MRP) Policy to be approved.

2.Recommendations

2.1That the proposed Treasury Strategyand Budgetary Framework 2014/15, as detailed in Appendix G, be agreed and submitted to full Council for approval.

2.2That as the recommendations from this report require Council approval on the 19th February 2014, this report be marked not for call-in on the grounds of urgency.

3.Introduction

3.1Background
The Council is required to operate a balanced budget, which broadly means that cash raised during the year will meet cash expenditure. Part of the treasury management operation is to ensure that this cash flow is adequately planned, with cash being available when it is needed. Surplus monies are invested in low risk counterparties or instruments commensurate with the Council’s risk appetite, providing adequate liquidity initially before considering investment return.

3.2The second main function of the treasury management service is the funding of the Council’s capital plans. These capital plans provide a guide to the borrowing need of the Council, essentially the longer term cash flow planning to ensure that the Council can meet its capital spending obligations. This management of longer term cash may involve arranging long or short term loans, or using longer term cash flow surpluses. On occasion any debt previously drawn may be restructured to meet Council risk or cost objectives.

3.3CIPFA defines treasury management as:
“The management of the local authority’s investments and cash flows, its banking, money market and capital market transactions; the effective control of the risks associated with those activities; and the pursuit of optimum performance consistent with those risks. ”

3.4Reporting requirements
The Council is required to receive and approve, as a minimum, three main reports each year, which incorporate a variety of polices, estimates and actuals. These reports are required to be adequately scrutinised by committee before being recommended to the Council. This role is undertaken by the Cabinet.

3.5The three main reports are:

• Prudential and Treasury Indicators and Treasury Strategy (This report) - The first, and most important report covers:

the capital plans (including prudential indicators);

a Minimum Revenue Provision Policy (how residual capital expenditure is charged to revenue over time);

the Treasury Management Strategy (how the investments and borrowings are to be organised) including treasury indicators; and

an investment strategy (the parameters on how investments are to be managed).

• A Mid Year Treasury Management Report – This will update members with the progress of the capital position, amending prudential indicators as necessary, and whether the treasury strategy is meeting the strategy or whether any policies require revision.
  
• An Annual Treasury Report – This provides details of a selection of actual prudential and treasury indicators and actual treasury operations compared to the estimates within the strategy.
  

1. In addition to the three main reports, the Audit Committee receive regular reports providing information on any treasury activity undertaken, the debt and investment position, performance monitoring information and predicted outturns of key prudential indicators, debt costs and investment income.
   

3.7Treasury Management Strategy for 2014/15.The strategy for 2014/15covers two main areas:

Capital Issues

The capital plans and the prudential indicators;

The Minimum Revenue Provision (MRP) strategy.

Treasury Management Issues

The current treasury position;

Treasury indicators which will limit the treasury risk and activities of the Council;

Prospects for interest rates;

The borrowing strategy;

Policy on borrowing in advance of need;

Debt rescheduling;

The investment strategy;

Creditworthiness policy.

3.8These elements cover the requirements of the Local Government Act 2003, the CIPFA Prudential Code, the Department of Communities and Local Government (CLG) MRP Guidance, the CIPFA Treasury Management Code and the CLG Investment Guidance.

3.9TrainingThe CIPFA Code requires the responsible officer to ensure that members with responsibility for treasury management receive adequate training in treasury management. Training for members will be arranged as required.

3.10Treasury Management ConsultantsThe Council uses Capita Asset Services, Treasury Solutions as its external treasury management advisors and recognises that responsibility for treasury management decisions remain with the organisation at all times and will ensure that undue reliance is not placed upon our external service providers.

3.11It also recognises that there is value in employing external providers of treasury management services in order to acquire access to specialist skills and resources. The Council will ensure that the terms of the appointment and the methods by which their value will be assessed are properly agreed and documented, and subjected to regular review.

4.The Capital Prudential Indicators 2014/15 – 2016/17

4.1The Council’s capital expenditure plans are the key driver of treasury management activity. The outputs of these plans are reflected in prudential indicators, which are designed to assist members overview and confirm capital expenditure plans.

4.2Capital Expenditure.
This prudential indicator is a summary of the Council’s capital expenditure plans, both those agreed previously, and those forming part of this budget cycle. Members are asked to approve the capital expenditure forecasts:

Full details of the proposed capital programmes for 2014/15 are included within the General Fund Budget and Capital Programme 2014/15 report and the Housing Revenue Account Budget 2014/15 and associated Housing Capital Programme 2014/15on this agenda.

4.3The table below summarises the above capital expenditure plans and how these plans are being financed by capital or revenue resources. Any shortfall of resources results in a funding need (borrowing):

4.4The Council’s Borrowing Need (the Capital Financing Requirement).
The second prudential indicator is the Council’s Capital Financing Requirement (CFR). The CFR is simply the total historic outstanding capital expenditure which has not yet been paid for from either revenue or capital resources. It is essentially a measure of the Council’s underlying borrowing need. Any capital expenditure above, which has not immediately been paid for, will increase the CFR.

4.5The CFR does not increase indefinitely, as the minimum revenue provision (MRP) is a statutory annual revenue charge which broadly reduces the borrowing need in line with each assets life.

4.6The CFR also includes any other long term liabilities (e.g. finance leases and Private Finance Initiative (PFI) schemes). Whilst this increases the CFR, and therefore the Council’s borrowing requirement, these types of schemes include a borrowing facility and so the Council is not required to separately borrow for these schemes. The Council does not envisage any such schemes within the CFR from 2013/14.

4.7The Council is asked to approve the CFR projections below:

4.8The large reductions in CFR in 2013/14 and 2016/17 can be attributed to £2.5m debt repayment from the HRA portfolio in each of the two years which are charged to balances in accordance with the HRA Business Plan and debt strategy. There is also an additional £1m reduction in 2016/17 due to the maturity of the LAMS cash backed loan to Lloyds which will be offset against the CFR in accordance with the MRP strategy.

4.9Minimum Revenue Provision (MRP) Policy Statement.
The Council is required to pay off an element of the accumulated General Fund capital spend each year (the CFR) through a revenue charge (the minimum revenue provision – MRP), although is it allowed to undertake additional voluntary payments if required (voluntary revenue provision – VRP).

4.10CLG regulations have been issued which require the full Council to approve an MRP Statement in advance of each year. A variety of options are provided to councils, so long as there is a prudent provision. The Council is recommended to approve the MRP Statement as detailed in Appendix A.

4.11Core Funds and Expected Investment Balances.
The application of resources (capital receipts, reserves etc.) to either finance capital expenditure or other budget decisions to support the revenue budget will have an ongoing impact on investments unless resources are supplemented each year from new sources (asset sales etc.). Detailed below are estimates of the year end balances for each resource and anticipated day to day cash flow balances.

4.12Investments are predicted to fall during 2014/15 as the HRA new build project nears completion which is to be financed from resources set aside in previous years. The decrease in 2016/17 is due to the HRA Business Plan anticipating an additional phase of new build to increase the housing stock further.

4.13Affordability Prudential Indicators.
The previous sections cover the overall capital and control of borrowing prudential indicators, but within this framework prudential indicators are required to assess the affordability of the capital investment plans. These provide an indication of the impact of the capital investment plans on the Council’s overall finances. The Council is asked to approve the following indicators.

4.14Ratio of financing costs to net revenue stream.
This indicator identifies the trend in the cost of capital (borrowing and other long term obligation costs net of investment income) against the net revenue stream.

4.15Incremental impact of capital investment decisions on council tax and housing rent levels.
This indicator identified the revenue costs associated with the proposed changes to the three year capital programme recommended in this report compared to the Council’s existing approved commitments and plans. The assumptions are based on the budget, but will invariably include some estimates, such as the level of Government support, which are not published over a three year period (council tax indicator only) and capital spend plans for years 2 and 3.

4.16The large values indicated in the table above for Council Tax reflect the large amount of revenue contributions required each year to support the capital programme due to the lack of capital receipts available.

4.17The housing indicator shows the revenue impact on rent levels based on any newly proposed changes, although any discrete impact will be constrained by rent controls. The cost of the HRA new build project in 2014/15 and the requirement to fund this from set aside revenue reserves and in year contributions is reflected in the 2014/15 indicator above. The implications of the next phase of the new build project, as modelled in the HRA Business Plan is reflected in the HRA indicator for 2016/17.

4.18HRA Ratios
As part of the self financing regime it is considered best practice to include indicators to reflect the level of debt that the HRA holds and compare to its revenues and number of dwellings held. The following table provides this information as at the end of each financial year.

5.Borrowing.

5.1The capital expenditure plans set out in section 4.2 provide details of the service activity of the Council. The treasury management function ensures that the Council’s cash is organised in accordance with the relevant professional codes, so that sufficient cash is available to meet this service activity. This will involve both the organisation of the cash flow and, where capital plans require, the organisation of appropriate borrowing facilities. The strategy covers the relevant treasury/ prudential indicators, the current and projected debt positions and the annual investment strategy.

5.2Current portfolio position.
The Council’s treasury portfolio position at 31st March 2013, with forward projections are summarised below. The table shows the actual external debt (the treasury management operations), against the underlying borrowing need (the Capital Financing Requirement – CFR), highlighting any over or under borrowing.

5.3Within the prudential indicators there are a number of key indicators to ensure that the Council operates its activities within well defined limits. One of these is that the Council needs to ensure that its gross debt does not, except in the short term, exceed the total of the CFR in the preceding year plus the estimates of any additional CFR for 2014/15 and the following two financial years. This allows some flexibility for limited early borrowing for future years, but ensures that borrowing is not undertaken for revenue purposes.

5.4The Director – Finance and Procurement reports that the Council complied with this prudential indicator in the current year and does not envisage difficulties for the future. This view takes into account current commitments, existing plans, and the proposals in this report.

6.Treasury Indicators: Limits to Borrowing Activity

6.1The Operational Boundary. This is the limit beyond which external debt is not normally expected to exceed. In most cases, this would be a similar figure to the CFR, but may be higher or lower depending on the levels of actual debt.

6.2The Authorised Limit for external debt. A further key prudential indicator represents a control on the maximum level of debt. This represents a limit beyond which external debt is prohibited, and this limit needs to be set or revised by the full Council. It reflects the level of external debt which, while not desired, could be affordable in the short term, but is not sustainable in the longer term.

• This is the statutory limit determined under section 3 (1) of the Local Government Act 2003. The Government retains an option to control either the total of all councils’ plans, or those of a specific council, although this power has not yet been exercised.
• The Council is asked to approve the following Authorised Limit:
  
  

1. Separately the Council is also limited to a maximum HRA CFR through the HRA self-financing regime. This limit is currently:
   
   

7.Prospects for Interest Rates.

7.1The Council has appointed Capita Asset Services as its treasury advisor and part of their service is to assist the Council to formulate a view on interest rates. The following table gives their central view.

7.2Until 2013, the economic recovery in the UK since 2008 had been the worst and slowest recovery in recent history. However, growth has rebounded during 2013 to surpass all expectations, propelled by recovery in consumer spending and the housing market. Forward surveys are also currently very positive in indicating that growth prospects are strong for 2014, not only in the UK economy as a whole, but in all three main sectors, services, manufacturing and construction. This is very encouraging as there does need to be a significant rebalancing of the economy away from consumer spending to construction, manufacturing, business investment and exporting in order for this start to recovery to become more firmly established.

7.3The current economic outlook and structure of market interest rates and government debt yields have several key treasury management implications:

• As for the Eurozone, concerns have subsided considerably in 2013. However, sovereign debt difficulties have not gone away and major concerns could return in respect of any countries that do not dynamically address fundamental issues of low growth, international uncompetitiveness and the need for overdue reforms of the economy (as Ireland has done). It is, therefore, possible over the next few years that levels of government debt to GDP ratios could continue to rise to levels that could result in a loss of investor confidence in the financial viability of such countries. This could mean that sovereign debt concerns have not disappeared but, rather, have only been postponed. Counterparty risks therefore remain elevated. This continues to suggest the use of higher quality counterparties for shorter time periods;
  
• Investment returns are likely to remain relatively low during 2014/15 and beyond;
  
• Borrowing interest rates have risen significantly during 2013 and are on a rising trend. The policy of avoiding new borrowing by running down spare cash balances has served well over the last few years. However, this needs to be carefully reviewed to avoid incurring even higher borrowing costs, which are now looming ever closer, where authorities will not be able to avoid new borrowing to finance new capital expenditure and/or to refinance maturing debt, in the near future;
  
• There will remain a cost of carry to any new borrowing which causes an increase in investments as this will incur a revenue loss between borrowing costs and investment returns.
  

8.The Borrowing Strategy.