CAS/CAS-MG2/Doc. 4.1.1, p. 12

WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
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COMMISSION FOR ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
MANAGEMENT group, second session
Oslo, Norway, 24-26 september 2007 / CAS-MG2/DOC. 4.1.1
(18. IX. 2007)
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Original: ENGLISH

REPORT FROM THE CAS/JSC OPAG-WWRP

(Submitted by Gilbert Brunet, chair of the OPAG-WWRP)

This document is a progress report on the ongoing activities of the Joint Scientific Committee (JSC) of the Open Programme Area Group (OPAG) on World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) since its 1ST session in April 2007 (Geneva, Switzerland).

1.  Role of OPAG-WWRP in support of CAS

The fourteenth Session of the Commission on Atmospheric Sciences (CAS-XIV, Cape Town, February 2006) recognized that weather research and prediction was evolving, with broad consideration of the understanding and prediction of environment variability, and increasing collaboration and integration of oceans in prediction systems and forecast applications. It noted the increasing complexity of the work of WWRP and the importance of developing and implementing a technical strategic plan to guide future work. Recognizing the need for a source of expert advice on relevant areas of WWRP during the next four years, CAS-XIV agreed that the establishment of the WWRP Open Programme Area Group (OPAG) and the integration of THORPEX with the other programme components is an effective way to organize the working structure, and enhance coordination between disciplines and other technical Commissions of WMO . The 58th WMO Executive Council in June 2006 agreed with the report of CAS-XIV. The four challenges facing the JSC OPAG-WWRP are:

a)  To provide the overall scientific guidance for the WWRP focusing on the reorganization of the weather research activities, simplifying the structure to reduce the costs without harming programme outputs;

b)  To develop a strategic science and implementation plan for WWRP and a work programme aligned with the WMO Strategic Plan ;

c)  To identify two or three initiatives where WWRP can work together with the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and other WMO programmes.

2.  Executive Summary of the First Session of the JSC OPAG-WWRP

The JSC OPAG-WWRP held its first meeting from 23 to 25 April 2007 at the WMO Headquarters (Geneva, Switzerland).

Following the directive of CAS-XIV, the meeting reviewed recent activities of the various working groups of the programme and discussed the development of a strategic science and technical implementation plan for WWRP and a work programme aligned with the WMO Long-term plan.

The meeting organized by WMO’s Atmospheric Research and Environment Programme Department (AREP) and chaired by Dr Gilbert Brunet (Canada) was well-attended by members of the JSC, chairpersons of the working groups and expert teams of WWRP and leading atmospheric research experts. Participants were enthusiastic and committed to providing the overall scientific guidance for WWRP, in particular, and in furthering the work of the Commission of Atmospheric Sciences, in general.

A detailed report on the first session of the JSC OPAG-WWRP meeting is available on the WMO website and contains a summary of all the presentations made, decisions arrived at during the three day meeting, outline of the WWRP Strategic Plan (2008-2015) and timetable for its preparation. The CAS/AREP Programme Structure Schematic and revised structure of the new WWRP Tropical Meteorology Research activity are also given in the appendices.

3.  JSC OPAG-WWRP Strategic and Implementation Plan

This section reports on the JSC OPAG-WWRP decisions 12, 13, 14 and 15.

The JSC agreed that the task team for coordinating the development of the SP will be composed of a small sub-group on the Strategic Plan Development composed of G. Brunet (Chair), D. McCulloch (Environment Canada, Executive Secretary), L. Barrie (D/AREP), Chief of AREP/WWRP Division (To be determined), S. Nickovich (Scientific Officer) and N. Lomarda (Senior Scientific Officer) and that the plan development and review include Chairs of the WWRP Working Groups and Expert Teams and other experts.

The procedure and timetable suggested by the Chair of JSC and D/AREP for developing the WWRP Strategic and Implementation Plan (SIP): 2008-2015 was accepted by the JSC-WWRP.

The outline of the SIP is finalized, assigned leads have been chosen and the working assignments have been given. The JSC OPAG-WWRP SP is progressing with some delays, but it is anticipated to have a final version in 2008. We have received to date contributions from THORPEX, WGTMR and NWG.

4.  Progress on White Paper: Toward A Seamless Process for the Prediction of Weather and Climate

There are significant similarities in the societal benefits and the much of the science underpinning both WWRP-THORPEX and WCRP. The science outcomes and the societal benefits will be enhanced significantly from strengthened collaboration between these programs. The Joint Scientific Committee (JSC) for the WCRP, the JSC for the WWRP and THORPEX International Core Steering Committee (ICSC) are keen to strengthen this collaboration and it has been agreed that it would be desirable for these communities to develop two "white papers". White paper 1 (WP1) would cover important general scientific/technical areas for collaboration between WWRP-THORPEX and WCRP – as agreed by John Church (JSC Chair for the WCRP) and Dave Burridge (ICSC Chair). This WP1 first version was prepared by a joint WWRP-THORPEX/WCRP drafting team comprised of: Gilbert Brunet (Environment Canada), Randall Dole (NOAA), Brian Hoskins (Reading U.), George Kiladis (NOAA), Ben Kirtman (GMU/COLA), Mitch Moncrieff (NCAR), Rebecca E. Morss (NCAR), Saroja Polaravapu (Environment Canada), Mel Shapiro (NOAA),Julia Slingo (Reading U.), Istvan Szunyogh (Maryland U.) and Duane Waliser (JPL).

White paper 2 (aimed at the senior executive/political level) would cover longer term strategic developments and emphasise the potential high societal benefits from significant additional investment in a "state of the art" predictive capability for weather and climate. The WP1 was requested by the Commission for Atmospheric Sciences (CAS) Chair, Michel Béland, for an endorsement by participating countries at the next CAS meeting.

The first draft of WP1 was circulated to a wider scientific audience. It has received to date numerous feedbacks and additional contributions from the two research communities that will significantly help strengthening the discussion on data assimilation, surface processes and tropical meteorology issues. A judicious rewriting of the WPI is ongoing and will hopefully broaden and reinforce the support from the research communities. We anticipate to get other contributions until mid October at the latest. It is expected to have a final version for endorsement by the WWRP and WCRP JSCs in fall 2007.

5.  Update and Progress Report of Working Groups

5.1 Progress and Future Plan of Working Group on Tropical Meteorology Research

The working group on Tropical Meteorology Research (WGTMR) set up two components of tropical cyclone panel and monsoon panel after XIV session of WMO commission of Atmospheric Sciences, Cape Town 16-24 Feb. 2006 instead of six components of WGTMR last session owing to limitation of funds. The topic of “the impact of Climate Change on Tropical Cyclone Activities” is included in tropical cyclone panel. The activity progress in this report is taking place after CAS XIV session.

Highlights

·  International Training Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Disaster Reduction

The workshop was held in Guangzhou China from 26 to 30 March 2007. The meeting chair was Prof. Lianshou Chen. 60 participants including 9 lectures from 15 countries which are affected by tropical cyclone disaster attended the workshop. The workshop objectives were to provide training and experiences on new knowledge in recent tropical cyclone research advances, to apply some of the research results into operational tropical cyclone prediction in order to raise the capability of tropical cyclone forecast and warning, to be aware of the issues associated with early warning systems, societal impacts and disaster mitigation. The lectures of the workshop were organized including tropical cyclone track forecasting techniques, structure and intensity change forecast related to CBLAST, tropical cyclone rainfall, wind, storm surge, coastal flooding, geological hazard, tropical cyclone warning systems, societal impacts and disaster reduction. The workshop was evaluated by all of the formal trainees organized by WMO to assess how well this workshop was so as to improve future workshops. Three parts including course review, overall logistics, lecture instructors were put into evaluation.

·  Working Group Meeting on Tropical Meteorology Research

The meeting of the WGTMR was held in Guangzhou as well from 22 to 24 March 2007 Chaired by Prof. Lianshou Chen. 17 participants attended the meeting. The objectives of the meeting were to restructure the working group of TMR, to discuss the strategics and objectives of the tropical meteorology research, to cooperate with other programs and to plan the future activities before CAS-XV session.

·  The Sixth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-VI)

The workshop was held in San Jose, Costa Rica from 21-30 Nov. 2006 co-chaired by Prof. Johnny Chan and Mr. Chiuying Lam. 130 participants from the world attended the meeting. The objectives of the workshop were to bring researchers and forecasters together to share experiences, to plan the future directions, to transfer the new research achievements to operational community and to raise the forecasting capability. The workshop topics include all of the major areas of tropical cyclone sciences, such as TC landfall process, structure and structure change, formation and extratropical transition, motion, climate variability and seasonal prediction and disaster mitigation/ warning systems/ societal impacts etc. The workshop arranged tutorial sessions to introduce some new techniques and field experiments (CBLAST, RAINEX) to the participants. The workshop recommendations can be categorized as WMO directed, research community and operational centers.

·  International Symposium on Winter MONEX

The symposium was held in Kuala Lumpur Malaysia from 4-7 April 2006 which was chaired by Prof. CP Chang. 100 participants from 20 countries attended the symposium.The objectives of the symposium were to review the findings and achievements since winter MONEX over Eastern and South Asia and South China Sea (SCS) as well as to develop the future scientific cooperation in Eastern Asian Monsoon. The symposium would help forecasters from relevant NMHSs raise capability on operational forecast.

·  FDP Project-Early Warning System (EWS) for PAGASA (The Philippines)

This Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP) is one of 4 recommendations from, and endorsed by the International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Landfalling Processes which was one of the WGTMR activities held in Macao 2005. This FDP project was proposed to the EWC-III in Bonn Germany in March 2006. Selected as one of 14 projects (out of 105 proposals), this project was given a “final grade of 5” (strongly agree), namely, a top rating of 5 by the organizers. But it has not been selected for funding by one of the donor organizations. Because a special opportunity exists during the tropical cyclone structure (TCS 08) field experiment to obtain the types of observations and test the advanced TC and hydrological models during 2008, a renewed effort will be initiated to obtain funding for this FDP.

·  Contribution to WWRP Strategic Plan

Two panels of WGTMR had drafted and completed partial contents of section 3 (WWRP Research Issues) and whole contents of 4.4 (Tropical Meteorology Research) for WWRP Strategic Plan.

The partial contents for section 3 include: Tropical meteorology issues, tropical meteorology significance, tropical cyclone science needs, monsoon science needs, tropical meteorology linkage, tropical meteorology capacity needed etc. The contents of section 4.4 include: Scope, Research Goals and Objectives, WGTMR Terms of References, Research Activities (Tropical Cyclone Research, Monsoon Research Activities), Products, Services and Technology Transfer.

Future Plans of WGTMR

·  Tropical cyclone Aspect

The WGTMR will continue the quadrennial IWTCs which is the keystone activity of tropical cyclone research component. The IWTC-VII will be organized in 2010 in a timely and effective manner.

The WGTMR will complete the updated compilation of the successor to the book of “Global Perspective on the Tropical Cyclones” in 2008 and the publication by WMO in 2009.

The WGTMR will prepare a new web-based Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting as recommended by IWTC-VI.

The International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Landfalling Processes (IWTCLP) endorsed a field experiment in the western North Pacific to advance understanding and address requirements for improved forecasting on tropical cyclone structure and structure change. Funding from U.S. office of Naval Research has been assured for a tropical cyclone structure field experiment in the western North Pacific during 2008 (acronym TCS 08). This effort will be in conjunction with the THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) in 2008. A field experiment on extratropical transition in west North Pacific and its downstream impacts on North American were also recommended. It could be implemented in the T-PARC frame in that period.

The second session of IWTCLP and extratropical transition workshop could be held hopefully in 2008-2009 based on funding availability. Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) and Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting (QPF) can be one of the topics for the former workshop.

A future direction in tropical cyclone forecasting will be in probabilistic forecasting. Research is required as to how to best utilize ensemble prediction system outputs to generate these probabilistic forecast products. The TIGGE System will be a useful source for research. Tropical cyclone panel will explore re-establishing the Limited Area Modeling Workshop around 2009.

The topic of impact of climate change on tropical cyclone activity/intensity has been addressed in two statements summarizing the present state of knowledge. This is an appropriate topic for the tropical cyclone panel of the WGTMR. The panel considers whether a meeting of the expert team on this topic should meet formally or conduct their deliberations via email, and coordinate this activity with the world climate research program as appropriate. On the other hand, it seems needed to produce a formal WMO report updating the status of this topic at least each two years and produce a report at each IWTC.

·  Monsoon Research Activities

A major activity of the monsoon panel of the WGTMR continues the quadrennial International Workshop on Monsoon (IWM) series. The IWM-IV will take place in October 2008, and a corresponding publication on monsoon research will be completed in 2009.

The international training workshop on monsoon will be conducted in a lecture manner. The lecturers are invited monsoon experts and the trainees are NMHS forecasters. The purpose of the training workshop is to update the trainees’ scientific knowledge that are applicable to monsoon forecasting. The 8th international training workshop on monsoon is expected to be held in fall of 2008.