Wild Animal Predicting Earthquake Activities:
Myth or Reality?
Mr. Abel AnsporthyMamboleo
Department of Tourism and Hospitality Management
St. Augustine University of Tanzania
P. O. Box 307, Mwanza, Tanzania
ABSTRACT
Earthquake prediction is a forecast that an earthquake of a specific magnitude will hit at a particular area and particular time. Wild animals respond to impending earthquakes after detecting geophysical stimuli. The paper reviewed various recorded instances of abnormal animal behaviours and stimuli that trigger such behaviours. It summarized and analysed secondary information from different literatures concerning abnormal animal behaviour before earthquakes. Geophysical stimuli such as low sound frequency, ground tilting, seismic waves, electromagnetic field fluctuations and changes in humidity normally trigger abnormal behaviour in wild animals before an earthquake.Different species react differently to earthquake stimuli. Wild animals become restless from a few minutes to as long as 24 hours before earthquakes. For an earthquake to be detectable by animals it should be of at least 5 magnitudes on the Richter scale. However, wild animal predictions do not necessarily specify parameters such as specific span of time, specific magnitude range and specific probability of occurrence.
Keywords: Animal, Bio-Indicator, Earthquake, Prediction, Myth and Reality.
1.0 INTRODUCTION
Earthquake prediction is a forecast that an earthquake of a specific magnitude will occur at a particular area and particular time. They occur regularly in Asian countries such as Japan and China. Earthquake is a sudden, rapid shaking of the earth caused by the breaking and shifting of rocks beneath the earth surface. It is the vibration of Earth produced by the rapid release of energy. Energy released radiates in all directions from its source. About 95 percent of the energy released by earthquakes originates in a few relatively narrow zones that wind around the globe. It occurs within the interior of tectonic plates. Earthquakes originate at depths ranging from 5 to nearly 700 kilometres (National Science Teachers Association, 2007). Earthquakes are a sudden phenomenon. Seismologists estimate that there are 500,000 detectable quakes occurring in the world each year. Of those, 100,000 can be felt by humans, and 100 cause severe damages. The largest earthquake ever recorded occurred in Chile in 1960, measuring a 9.5 on the Richter scale. The Indian Ocean earthquake of 26th December 2004 that triggered a devastating tsunami measured 9.0 on the Richter scale. The seismic events are normally associated with countless deaths, injuries, displacement and destruction of property. There are several events associated with the occurrence of earthquake which are considered as myths. There is a Japanese story that associates the earthquake with catfish. The story tells of an existence of huge mudfish living underground that causes earthquakes whenever it moves (Seismological Bureau of Anhui, 1978). Other myths are about fog, unusual cloud formations, lights, and unusual wildlife behaviours before earthquakes. Such incidents have been reported regularly before major destructive earthquakes and believed to be myths. Some scientists have declined to conduct researches on existing myths claiming that they do not want to investigate lay observations but the ongoing scientific studies have provided the world with significant information and therefore the legends and reports are gradually disappearing.
Both wild and domestic animals display abnormal behaviour before seismic activities. Abnormal wild animal behaviour prior to the onset of earthquakes is called Seismic Anomalous Animal Behaviour or SAAB. Such type of abnormal behaviour has been widely documented in differenttypes of animals from all over the world in all ages. People interpret the abnormal animal behaviour in terms of excitability and panic. For years oriental myths have told stories of wild animals predicting earthquakes. These stories and myths are believed to have a scientific basis. It is now a talking point of interest to popular scientific community and also to some media houses but it has scarcely attracted serious scientific research (Seismological Bureau of Anhui, 1978). In 1970s the State Seismological Bureau of China began official documentation of wild animal abnormal behaviour prior to earthquake activities. Four years later, when an earthquake appeared, the Bureau ascertained several abnormal behaviours of wild animals before the Tangshan Earthquake in 1976. Thousands of years ago, long before meteorology and weather forecasts, people relied on the behaviour of wild animals to predict storms, volcano eruptions, and earthquakes. The contemporary discussions in the literature on whether wild animals can predict earthquakes are still confusing. There are those who take it seriously as a reality and others who still criticize the idea and think of it as just a myth, they argue that an earthquake is totally unpredictable by nature (Geller, 1991). However, it is scientifically established that wild animals have sensitivity to earthquake geophysical signals. Wild animals have inherent rapid responses to escape from dangers such as predators, fire and poachers. The response is associated with the release of adrenaline hormones that improves effectiveness of sensory organs and provisionally ceases pain sensation. People in earthquakes prone areas have seen wild animals now and then behaving strangely prior to the onset of earthquakes (Tong, 1988). The anomalous behaviours frequently observed are restlessness or excitability, incoordination, vocal responses, termination of hibernation, and leaving their normal habitats. The behaviours have been observed in various wild animal species of mammals, birds, reptiles, fish, and insects.
2.0 LITERATURE REVIEW
The observed abnormal wild animal behaviours before an earthquake are simply the response to different geophysical stimuli such as low sound frequency, ground tilting, seismic waves, electromagnetic field fluctuation and changes in humidity (Tong, 1988 and Kirschvink, 2000). Animals are naturally more sensitive to their environment than humans are (Ikeyaet al., 1996).Their survival depends upon their ability to sense and react to any changes in the environment (Kalmijn, 1974). Some geologists dismiss this theory totally or completely for the reason of the Psychological Focusing Effect, which states that human being will only remember the abnormal behaviours displayed by wild animals because of the destructive earthquake activities, or any other major deadly natural causality (Tong, 1988). If not for the earthquake, these strange behaviours in animals would not be kept in human being’s mind. Other geologists insist that the wild animal prediction on earthquakes will be incomplete unless the following parameters are properly and explicitly elaborated, the specific location or area, specific span of time, specific magnitude range and specific probability of occurrence (Tong, 1988).
The earliest reference about abnormal wildlife behaviours prior to a significant earthquake is from Greece in 373 BC (Tong, 1988). Researchers continue to pursue the idea that wildlife can predict earthquakes through detection of seismic P and S waves, tilt grounding, humidity, electromagnetic field, low frequency sounds and electrical current (Kirschvink, 2000). Tong (1988) argues that wild animals know the coming of earthquakes hours or minutes before seismic events. However the animal knowledge depends on the distance between earthquake epicentres and earthquakes foci. There are significant variations in ability, consistenceand accuracy for detecting earthquake signals among wild animals. Nevertheless, this is a result of the difference in geographical, evolutionary, anatomical and physiological features. Wild animals which are very close to earthquake focus will not have adequate time to detect the seismic event.
There are earthquake prone countries in the world that are regularly encountered by earthquakes (Kirschvink, 2000 and Ikeyaet al., 1996). Consequently, Japan, Sri Lanka, Thailand and China are some of those countries. They have been formally and informally noticing and also recording several abnormal behaviours of wild animals before the onset of earthquakes activities. Some people in those countries surely associate abnormal wild animal behaviours with the prediction of earthquakes (Seismological Bureau of Anhui, 1978). Tong (1988) is of the opinion that observations of abnormal wild animal behaviour prior to earthquake activities have been reported around the world since the beginning of recorded history. Chinese and Japanese have been recording these observations for many hundreds of years and have made attempts to integrate these observations into an earthquake warning system with some success. Over 6,000 years ago, the Chinese have used animals for predicting seismic disasters and acknowledged their methods had worked properly. In February, 1975, animal observers informed the government of China that snakes and worms were behaving strangely as they were abandoning their underground burrows and coming out into the open winter air. In response, the government evacuated all people and hours later, a massive earthquake hit. The lives of thousands people were rescued because of wild animal behaviour. The government of Sri Lanka was amazed to see no dead animal after tsunami.
Ideas about wild animals predicting earthquakes activities are geographically constrained and localized to some countries of the world (Tong, 1988). For example, many African countries have relatively few incidences and lower magnitude earthquakes as compared to Asian and American countries. Due to regular occurrences of destructive activities in Asian countries, abnormal wild animal behaviours before catastrophic earthquakes have been identified and used for predictions of destructive earthquakes. Japanese and Chinese have been strictly curious, attentive and knowledgeable in noting abnormal behaviours of wild animals prior to earthquakes for many years for safety reasons. People are therefore doing it for rewards as abnormal wild animal behaviour acts as a warning on the impending destructive earthquakes activities. It is impractical for Africans to associate abnormal wild animal behaviour with earthquakes because thereare few and insignificant earthquakes in Africa.
Survival is an important ultimate undertaking and also the biggest challenge for wild animals in the jungle (Ikeyaet al., 1996). Only the fittest wild animals will get an opportunity to perpetuate their genetic materials and survive in the jungle. Evading danger is the primal role of wild animals in the jungle. It is this instinct that makes wild animals to have effective and consolidated sensory modalities and communication techniques (Tong, 1988). The logic behind having and application of sophisticated sensory techniques to predict deadly disasters like earthquake is, likewise, a desire to survive (Grant and Holliday, 2010). Scientists concur that wild animals have more than five sensory modalities which animals use to predict earthquakes. For example.an animal’s eye is not only for vision perception of images but also for electromagnetic light reception in some animals. Ears for detection of sound many wild animals also include low sound frequency detection in bats, insects, dolphins and some fish, and infrasound detection in whales, elephants, giraffes, rhinos and crocodiles (Zivkovic, 2012). Snakes and insects have infrared detectors. Several aquatic animals, including sharks and eels, as well as the platypus, are capable of sensing changes in the electromagnetic fields which can also be produced by earthquakes (Fraser-Smith at al., 1990). More and more organisms from vertebrates to invertebrates are capable of sensing the direction, inclination and intensity of the electromagnetic field (Varotsoset al., 1986). They are capable of detecting vibrations of the substrate and use it to communicate with each other by shaking the branches or stamping the ground. It is probably this sense that allowed many animals to detect the onset of earthquakes through ground tilting (Zivkovic, 2012).
Wild animals have excellent senses of smell, sight, hearing and even the ability to sense minute vibrations, sound and lights as such those senses help animals escape causalities such as earthquakes and hurricanes. The finely tuned sensory perception of animals, in many cases, makes them a better perceiver of environmental changes, even before humans notice appreciable differences (Bhargavaet al., 2009). Many wild animal species perceive and use electromagnetic fields to navigate or to find prey.Some wild animals can detect humidity and water level changes prior to onset of earthquakes. The changes can mostly be detected by burrowing species of wildlife due to noticeable changes of moisture contents in soil air and increase in soil water. Due to abnormal conditions animals escape the area searching for suitable environment. It should be noted that all human and non human life deserves to survive by natural selection. Detection of an earthquake by wildlife before the onset of actual seismic event is innate kind of wild animal behaviours. It prepares an animal for escape to amplify the chances of survival as instructed by natural selection. The animals which are unable to detect the earthquakes precursors will equally be naturally selected by death. However, there is scepticism in earthquake predictions by some scientists from United States of America. However, this abnormal wild animal theory might in the very near future be adopted and improved by man to save millions of lives and thousands of dollars worth of property as wildlife can be used as biological indicators.
3.0 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
The purpose of this article was to determine whether a positive relationship exists between abnormal wild animal behaviour and earthquake activities. The scope of the article was limited to reviewing the validity of the theory that wild animal behaviour can be used to predict earthquake activities. The article reviewed various recorded instances of abnormal animal behaviour, the cues that trigger such behaviour, the possible mechanism of evolution of such behaviour and whether abnormal behaviour of wild animal can be used as a biological indicator for earthquake prediction. It summarized and analysed secondary data from different journals, books and other literatures concerning abnormal wild animal behaviour before the onset of earthquakes and its possible usefulness in the forthcoming earthquake activities. Both retrospective studies and laboratory based simulations were reviewed. Through the retrospective strategies, interviews of different people who have experienced earthquakes and observed unusual animal behaviour before seismic events were carried out by different authors and organizations. The interviewees were farmers, peasant, livestock keepers, livestock experts, ethologists, wildlife experts and seismologists. Controlled laboratory experiments were also carried out to investigate sensory thresholds of animals to test geophysical stimuli that may cause abnormal animal behaviour. The stimuli tested on animals included sound with intensity and frequency outside the range of human perception, variation in electromagnetic field, ground vibration or foreshocks, changes in ground water and humidity and electromagnetic waves. Scientists in United States studied the possible connection between animal behaviour and earthquakes. They project was situated in California and it ran for three years. It involved about a thousand volunteers. The volunteers watched animals and called the project every day to report on their actions. During the project at least thirteen earthquakes were recorded. Some were bigger than others. The volunteers observed enormous abnormal behaviour before seven of the earthquakes. Stanford Research Institute conducted a five year project named Project Earthquake Watch obtained statistically significant results indicating that reports of unusual animal behaviour increase prior to some earthquakes. Chinese scientists conducted surveys of animal behaviour variations prior to earthquakes. A team of scientists including biologists, geophysicists, chemists, meteorologists, and biophysicists conducted a survey in the Tangshan area and in 400 communes in 48 counties around it after the 1976 earthquake. The scientists visited a number of places that were hit by other destructive earthquakes and, through interviews and focused group discussions with local people, collected useful information on over 2,000 cases of unusual animal behaviour observed before an onset of earthquake. The majority of the reports involved domestic and wild animals.
4.0 RESEARCH FINDINGS
Earliest observation of earthquakes date back 3000 years ago. Chinese scientists have ascertained about 58 species of wild and domestic animals reacting strangely before earthquake activities. Findings of the research conducted in 1996 in California households indicate that out of the 200 randomly surveyed people, 15% had witnessed an animal behaving oddly before an earthquake. Common observations included reports that the animals appeared frightened, agitated, excited, disoriented, or were missing. Some 43% of the observations were made by non-pet owners. The reports of odd animal behaviour were noticed from several weeks to several seconds before the quake. Different species have different ways for reacting to earthquake geophysical stimuli. For examples, hibernating snakes abandon their burrows during the winter few days before earthquakes. This was observed during Haicheng earthquake in 1975 (earthquake had 7.3 magnitude). Japanese fishermen observed deep sea fish swimming near the surface of water. Normally, most animals become restless. Abnormal animal behaviour may happen from few minutes to as long as 24 hours before earthquakes. For destructive earthquakes to be able to trigger abnormal wild animal behaviour they should have at least 5 magnitudes. Abnormal animal behaviour prior to earthquake may not necessarily relate to earth quake predictions as it is only a fraction of species of wild animal that show abnormal behaviour and also wild animals can react to many things. The abnormal animal behaviour has been only observed from macroscopic animals with little or no observation in microscopic wild animals. The geophysical stimuli that animals can detect before the destructive earthquakes can be low sound frequency, variation in electromagnetic field, ground vibration or foreshocks, changes in ground water and humidity and electromagnetic waves.
Wildlife shows certain strange behaviours prior to earthquake. For examples, wild cats normally scream mournfully. There is an exodus of rats and cats away from the area. Bats fly and forage in winter months when they would normally be hibernating. Birds’ morning and evening songs means fine weather, but night cries mean earthquakes. Big catfish stir deep underground. Fish rise to the surface of the water. Fishing catches decrease near the coast. Big schools of sardines swim upriver and colonies of sea crabs walk onshore (Xu, 2000). Before the gigantic earthquake that devastated Sichuan province in China, odd swarms of frogs were seen in the streets of cities in the area, and have subsequently been identified as abnormal wild animal behaviours thought to precede earthquakes. Similar swarm of frog appeared in Bakersfield, California for hours. Strange swarms of frogs also appeared before the 6.9 Loma Prieta Earthquake in October, 1989.