The Statistical System of the Republic of Croatia: Global Assessment

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The Statistical System of the Republic of Croatia: Global Assessment

17 July 2001

PREFACE......

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY......

A Institutional Setting......

1Legal Setting......

1.1Statistical Law......

1.2Other Legislation......

1.3 Statistical Council, Statistical Programme, Inter-ministerial Consultations, Consultations with Users

1.4Protection of Independence......

1.5Data Protection and Confidentiality......

2National Statistical System......

2.1Principles......

2.2Structure of the System, Providers of Official Statistics, and Relationship between CBS and Other Providers

2.4Liaison with Research Institutes and Universities......

2.5Liaison with the Business Community......

2.6Product and Dissemination Policies......

2.7Relations with the Central Government......

2.8Relations with Local Governments......

2.10Access to Administrative Records......

3Description of the CBS......

3.1Mission, Internal Organisation......

3.2Planning, Programming and Priority Setting......

3.3Monitoring Quality in all Activities......

3.5Finance and Budgeting......

3.6Staffing, Staff Recruitment and Training......

3.7Information Technology......

3.8Internal Monitoring of Performance......

3.9External Accountability......

4Statistical Infrastructure......

4.1Classifications......

B Technical Part: Capacity of Producing Statistics in Various Areas......

1Assessment of the Overall Capacity......

2Capacity to Organise and Carry out Censuses......

3 Capacity to Produce Annual Population Statistics after the Population Census......

4Capacity to Carry out Household Surveys......

5Capacity to Carry out Business Surveys......

6Capacity to Produce Data on Public Sector Activities......

7Capacity to Produce Agricultural Statistics......

8 Capacity to Produce Monetary, Financial and Balance of Payments Statistics......

ANNEXES......

Annex 1: Organisation Chart of the Central Bureau of Statistics until May 2001......

Annex 2: Organisation Chart of the Central Bureau of Statistics as from June 2001......

Annex 3: Law on Statistics......

Annex 4: Law on the Population Census......

Annex 5: List of Surveys......

Annex 6: CBS Staff......

Annex 7: Publication Programme 2001......

Annex 8: Basic Statistics of the Country......

Annex 9: Budget......

Annex 10: List of Co-operation Projects......

Annex 11: Meeting Schedule of the 1st Mission......

Annex 12: Meeting Schedule of the 2nd Mission......

PREFACE

The global assessment of the Croatian System of Official Statistics was conducted by Mr. Heinrich BRÜNGGER from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office under a contractual arrangement between this office and EUROSTAT. This assessment was to be focused on finding out about the present situation in the Statistical Office, in the statistical system as a whole and their respective institutional environments (institutional aspects), and on the capacity of the statistical system and its main actors to provide, in a sustainable way, timely, accurate, authoritative and relevant information to users (infrastructural aspects). A detailed analysis of specific statistics such as national accounts or CPI with respect to their compliance with EU requirements was not part of the mandate; nevertheless, the report includes in its Part B an assessment by broad subject area on whether the basic elements to produce the output required by the EU are in place either today or in the near future.

The assessment has exploited the material delivered by the Central Bureau of Statistics of the Republic of Croatia (CBS) before the first mission took place, notably the Law on National Statistics, the Programme of Statistical Surveys 2000 - 2002. The expert consulted also the statistical yearbook with its concise methodological descriptions for each subject area. Two missions took place (2 to 8 May and 5 to 8 June 2001) in order to have in-depth discussions with the management and staff of the CBS as well as representatives from other producers of official statistics, to visit one of the regional offices (at Karlovac), and to be given additional material referred to in the report. The missions did not include any discussions with users outside the CBS. The final version has been agreed by the director general of the CBS on 29 June 2001.

The expert was greatly helped in his task by the staff of the CBS, who did an excellent job in preparing the missions and organising the discussions, which have inevitably made considerable demands on the time of the management and of other staff. Nearly 40 staff members from the CBS participated in the discussions willingly, actively and with good humour, in spite of an already heavy work load. Without their contributions, and without the on-the spot translation during most of the discussions, it would not have been possible to carry out the mandate in such a short time. Special thanks therefore to all the people at the CBS for the warm welcome and the help the expert received.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1.The statistical system of the Republic of Croatia is composed of 11 actors at the central level, plus 21 regional statistical offices, which are administratively not subordinated to the CBS. The Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) is the major actor. Its budget accounted for 0.074% of the total government budget in 2000, and it currently employs 396 permanent employees. The regional offices employ 270 persons altogether (the staff number of the other producers at the central level used for official statistics is unknown). The total number of persons dealing with official statistics in the Republic of Croatia is therefore likely to be more than 700, which, for a country with a population of 4.38 million inhabitants would be adequate as total quantity of labour input if it were organised in a different way. The fact that this volume has continued to be available for official statistics even at very difficult moments for the country during the last decade is a very positive element of the system.

1. The CBS has a long tradition dating back to the Austro-Hungarian empire. With independence of the Republic of Croatia in 1991, it was the first time acting as a National Statistical Office, and was not only confronted with tasks that had been centralised in Belgrade in the period of the former Yugoslavia, but had to convert major statistics to a completely new administrative environment and to a market economy. This transition had to be made at a time when some parts of the country were struck by war or unrest, or were not any more under the control of the Croatian authorities at certain moments. It is therefore a great achievement for the CBS as the focal point of the statistical system of Croatia to have been able not only to maintain their production throughout the period (for the territory under control), but to gradually adapt the data collections and the results to new classifications and definitions in line with EU or other international requirements, and in addition to introduce new surveys and new important results such as the consumer price index and national accounts. This achievement was only possible through the full commitment and the high professional quality of the key staff in the CBS.

1. The overall compliance of the output of the Croatian statistical system, assessed against the requirements of the EU statistical programme (legally binding and non-binding parts together), is constantly increasing, notably with respect to the legally binding (acquis) part. The CBS is respecting all fundamental principles of official statistics scrupulously, without being very much supported in this behaviour by outside stakeholders.

1. The statistical system of Croatia, and the CBS in particular, have benefited only to a very small extent from international donors until now. All modifications and additions to the statistical output, and notably the population census carried out in April 2001, have been funded almost entirely from the government. Furthermore, Croatia has not been able to participate in meetings organised by the EU at a regular basis since 1995, thus being cut off from the most important platform for exchanging experience with statisticians from other countries. These are factors which have to be taken into account when the capacity of the system to face the forthcoming challenges, which will include a much greater rapprochement to the EU as signalled by the negotiations on a Stability and Association Agreement, is assessed.

1. In spite of the high volume of production, exemplified by the high number of surveys and the extensive publication catalogue, and in spite of significant improvements in individual statistics as a consequence of the use of EU standards, the system as a whole has a number of important weaknesses which it is now time to address in a co-ordinated way: These weaknesses, which are obstacles to enhance both the productivity and efficiency of the system and the status of its major actor, are the following:

-Legal basis from 1994 in need of change in many respects;

-Insufficient recognition of the importance of the statistical system for the society and of the specific role of the CBS by the government; the CBS has no spokesman at government level, and has very little political or media support;

-Absence of a longer-term strategic plan for the development of the statistical system;

-Statistical Council foreseen in the law not operational until now;

-Contribution of regional offices in the present set-up insufficient to justify the staff allocation;

-Statistical programme to be adopted in detail by the Parliament without links to resources; this programme, once adopted, is a very rigid plan of itemised work that does not allow enough room for flexible adaptations, or for longer-term or horizontal considerations. The present statistical programme covers the period 2000 to 2002;

-A prevailing practice of limiting the role of the CBS to the production and dissemination of figures (with methodological explanations and statistical comments added), but of staying clearly away from more complete analysis and explanatory comments;

-A policy of priority setting in form of maintaining existing surveys and existing series (with adaptations where necessary) as primary concern, and of adding new surveys and new activities only insofar as resources permit;

-As a consequence, the concentration of staff resources in the CBS on data collection and data processing (192 surveys!), without sufficient time allowed for adding value to the results or for regularly checking their relevance;

-Data collection system with private businesses spread to thinly over many uncoordinated surveys; in its present form of operation, it cannot handle complex surveys. There is no statistical business register which could serve as a sampling frame;

-Insufficient capacity for producing reliable agricultural statistics;

-Uncertainty about funding of large-scale operations like the population census until a very late moment;

-High turnover of staff because of general working conditions in the administration, of which some aspects have a particularly negative impact on the CBS staff;

-Insufficient IT infrastructure;

-No training programme in statistics for CBS staff.

1. As a consequence, it is difficult to speak of a "system" of official statistics that is effectively governed by some common principles and procedures in reality. It is not possible for the CBS to carry out its role as standard setter and co-ordinator, since there is no higher-level support if a divergence of view with another producer cannot be solved by consensus. Neither can the CBS find support in the case of another agency denying access to administrative records with a potential for official statistics. Due to the high burden caused by the many statistical surveys, the CBS has also insufficient resources devoted to internal co-ordination in substance, be it for surveys, for the release of results, or for a systematic quality control with relevance as main item.

1. A continuation of the present way of functioning risks to be the beginning of a downward spiral, whereby the CBS would be more and more incapable of fulfilling its production and dissemination role, and of investing into modernisation, with the consequence of official statistics, especially surveys addressed to private companies and households which today are almost exclusively concentrated at the CBS, being increasingly carried out by other public bodies or even contracted out to private operators, without ensuring that the rules of official statistics are adhered to. This process would cause a loss in perceived and de facto status, and could also undermine certain fundamental principles which have been de facto respected by the authorities until now, such as the professional independence of the CBS. There are signs that this spiral has already started (recent cut in salaries for a substantial number of CBS staff; exclusion of the CBS from important inter-ministerial bodies). It is important to break this spiral, and this necessity is clearly recognised by the senior management of the CBS.

1. A first window of opportunity will be a forthcoming decision about the future of the regional statistical offices. This opportunity should be used for important changes in terms of the number of these offices, their relationship to the CBS, and their tasks. The resources that will inevitably be freed through this restructuring should be given to the CBS with a clear mandate to use them for what should be called a change process. This process would results, among other things, in a change of the statistical law and in a new structure of, and new procedures for the adoption of, a multi-year statistical programme valid from 2004 onwards. The new statistical programme would be based on a master strategic plan, and the essential part of the change process would be to set up this master plan in such a way that all issues mentioned in this report are addressed in an interrelated way.

1. In order to be able to start and gradually implement this change process, the CBS needs expertise and funds from international donors. Additional externally funded expertise is needed for:

-coaching the whole process of change and the setting up of the master strategic plan;

-completely revising the statistical law;

-working out an efficient internal organisation of a greater CBS and revising internal rules of procedures and decision-making (management consultant);

-working out a scenario for implementing more efficient, CBS-wide IT-tools (IT expertise from a foreign NSI);

-starting the substantive work on the mater strategic plan and the new statistical programme.

-setting up a training programme;

-working out a concept for an continuously updated statistical business register in line with the EU requirements;

-working out a concept how data collection in line with EU requirements on structural business statistics can best be organised;

-establishing a concept to produce regional GDP and to adapt the data collection where necessary, following a requirement from the Stabilisation and Association Agreement with the EU.

External funding may in addition to the above items of expertise be necessary for:

-carrying out the agricultural census

-preparing and carrying out an economic census

-setting up of a statistical business register with the economic census as starting point;

-carrying out a pilot for the structural business survey;

-modernising IT and communication (including dissemination tools like output database and thematic mapping);

-enabling CBS staff to participate in international meetings, in TES courses, in international projects and in regional co-operation.

The Statistical System of the Republic of Croatia: Global Assessment

AInstitutional Setting

1Legal Setting

1.1Statistical Law

1. Official statistics in the Republic of Croatia is defined in the „Law on National Statistics of the Republic of Croatia“ dated July 1994 (hereafter statistical law). It contains 47 articles. It enshrines most of the UN Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics such as neutrality, impartiality, professional independence and statistical confidentiality as governing principles with legal force. The statistical law provides for a statistical programme to be adopted by the Parliament. This programme can cover one or more years. It contains all statistical surveys, and some statistics based on administrative data. Only population censuses and “other large-scale statistical surveys” shall be regulated by special law (but are nevertheless included in the statistical programme).

1. The law defines the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS hereafter) as the body which carries out activities based on this law except for those defined in the statistical programme as being in the competence of another public body, but is does not define the status of the CBS. The law lists in its article 10 other state bodies, including the National Bank of Croatia, but not the Ministry of Finance, as possible producers of official statistics. This list is meant to be exhaustive. The law also contains some articles by which the CBS can set standards which are to be followed by all actors of the statistical system.

1. As a further category of actors, the statistical law mentions the 20 county statistical offices and the statistical office of the municipality of Zagreb (hereafter together referred to as regional offices). These 21 regional offices have a de facto dual subordination (not regulated in the statistical law itself): on the one hand, the CBS can define what they have to do, but on the other hand their formal line of reporting is to the prefect of the county or to the Mayor of Zagreb.

Assessment

1. Without doubts, the statistical law from 1994, together with the tradition of a scientific and professional statistical service, has facilitated the transformation of the former statistical office responsible for a state being part of a federation so as to become a national statistical institute in a market economy, and contributed to keeping this transition outside party politics. This law was passed in a rather short time to replace the old law from 1972 at a moment when the country was phased with many urgent problems. This helps to explain why certain features of the old system were simply carried over to the new legal base. Time has come, however, to improve the law in those aspects that are mentioned below, which will lead to a complete rewriting of the law rather than a piecemeal adaptation. This should be done as a part of a transformation process of the statistical system with sufficient time foreseen for discussion with stakeholders and for a public debate on the role of official statistics in a modern European state.

1. The CBS has made a great effort to transpose the principles of the law into practice for its own activities. Other producers, in spite of being mentioned explicitly in the statistical law, do not consider this law of any practical relevance for their own statistical activities over and above describing these activities in the respective part of the statistical programme for information and visibility purposes. The CBS has not devoted any resources to monitor compliance of other producers with the statistical law, and were it do so and had it discovered any infringement, the only way of resolving them would have been bilateral discussions with the producer concerned that results in a consensus. Since there is no statistical council in operation to which unresolved disputes concerning the statistical law could have been submitted for an authoritative opinion (see 1.3), the CBS would have had to bring such an issue at the level of government, with the obvious risk of not finding any support at this level.

1. In summary, the statistical law has shortcomings and gaps with respect to the following elements:

-purpose of official statistics as information not only for government, but for a variety of users and the public at large;