The Korea Times
2013-05-12 11:26
If I was advisor to Kim Jung-un
By Chang Se-moon
Last night, my Supreme Commander Kim called me into his office. As usual, he was not really diplomatic and began to ask me pointed questions on the economic impact of what I call the Great Confrontation of 2013 on both Koreas.
The first question related to the Gaeseong Industrial Complex (GIC). The Supreme Commander asked me whether it was a good decision to suspend the operation and force South Korean workers to return home. I felt a little pressure from the tone of his question, and answered that it was a good decision. He then asked whether the suspension of the complex caused significant damage to the South Koran economy. I answered this question rather straight by telling him that the suspension caused heavy losses to the 123 South Korean companies that were producing no less than $40 million worth of products each month. I further told my Supreme Commander that some of these 123 companies lost their overseas clients and were suffering. Kim smiled. I reminded him, however, that the loss to South Korean companies represented only a tiny portion of the South Korean economy. The Supreme Commander said nothing, which usually means that he was not pleased to hear that.
My Supreme Commander then asked how the Great Confrontation affected the overall South Korean economy. He specifically asked the impact on the mood of the public, on foreign investment, and on commercial banks and news media whose websites were messed up by a group of hackers he created. I told him that no one in South Korea seemed to run away south, and that Koreans in the U.S. and other parts of the world were still eager to visit Korea this summer by buying all available tickets from Korean Air and Asiana. I also told him that the confrontation appears to have had no impact on foreign investment in South Korea, but the cyberattack caused a major headache to commercial banks and news media by halting their operations for a short period of time. He appeared satisfied.
The Supreme Commander then turned his questions to the impact of the Great Confrontation on North Korea. The first question was how the 54,000 North Korean workers at the GIC were taking their temporary loss of jobs. It was dawning on me that the closure of the GIC was not to punish South Korean companies, but was his fear that the 54,000 workers and their families might have been exposed too much to South Korea. I told him that they seemed to be taking the loss of work well for their love of the homeland.
He then asked whether there were any changes in economic relations with China. This is when I started feeling uncomfortable. Out of my loyalty to my Supreme Commander, however, I decided to tell him the truth in the nicest way that I knew. China stopped, albeit temporarily, all group tours from Dandong across the Yalu River to Pyonyang that had been a good source of Chinese currency. The capitalistic China stopped all new capital investments including a large fisheries processing plant that was planned. There were at least 200,000 Chinese nationals working and living in Seoul. The total amount of imports and exports combined between South Korea and China is more than $160 billion per year, while the comparable figure between North Korea and China is less than $3 billion. By now, he looked visibly upset.
The last question he asked me was how the Great Confrontation of 2013 would affect North Korea in the long run. I answered that the North Korean economy would not be able to sustain much longer without returning to peaceful negotiation and help from the South. Even before I completed my answer, my Supreme Commander drew a pistol from his drawer and pointed at me. I saw him pulling the trigger, but heard nothing because I just woke up from my sleep with sweat all over me.