Draft Final Work Plan

DEVELOPMENT OF FUTURE YEAR EMISSIONS INVENTORY

FOR AREA, NON-ENERGY POINT, AND NONROAD SOURCES

IN THE MANE-VU REGION

Prepared for:

Megan Schuster

Air Quality Specialist

Mid-Atlantic Regional Air Management Association (MARAMA)

711 W. 40th Street, Suite 318

Baltimore, MD 21211-2109

410.467.0170

June 9July 22, 2005

8280056335.001

Submitted by

MACTEC Federal Programs, Inc.

560 Herndon Parkway, Suite 200

Herndon, VA 20170

(703) 471-8383, FAX (703) 481-8296

Edward Sabo / Douglas A. Toothman
Principal / Senior Principal

Draft Final Work Plan for MANE-VU Future Year Emission Inventories7/226/8/2005

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page

INTRODUCTION...... 1

DELIVERABLES SUMMARY...... 1

TECHNICAL PLAN...... 1

Task 1 – Prepare Inventory Development Work Plan...... 1

Data/Methods for Stationary non-EGU Point and Area Sources... 3

Data/Methods for Special Area Source Categories...... 9

Data/Methods for Sources Included in the NONROAD Model.... 10 9

Data/Methods for Other Nonroad Categories...... 10

Task 2 – Prepare Quality Assurance Project Plan...... 110

Task 3 – Develop 2009, 20132012, and 2018 Growth Factors...... 11

Task 4 – Develop 2009, 20132012, and 2018 Control Factors...... 121

Task 5 – Develop and QA 2009, 20132012, and 2018 Emission Projections132

Task 6 – Prepare Final Technical Support Document ...... 13

Task 7 – Project Management and Reporting ...... 14

Optional Task 1 – Sensitivity and Statistical Analysis ...... 14

KEY PERSONNEL...... 14

SCHEDULE...... 156

LIST OF TABLES

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Table 1. Summary of Deliverables and Services Provided...... 2

Table 2. OTB Control Strategies for Non-EGU and Areas Sources.... 6

Table 3. OTW Control Strategies for Non-EGU and Areas Sources.... 8

Table 4. MANE-VU Contacts for Projection Inventory Work...... 165

Table 5. Schedule for Deliverables...... 17

Draft Final Work Plan for MANE-VU Future Year Emission Inventories7/226/8/2005

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INTRODUCTION

MACTEC Federal Programs, Inc. is pleased to submit this draft final work plan to the Mid-Atlantic Regional Air Management Association (MARAMA) to develop future year point, area, and nonroad source emission inventories to support the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast Visibility Union (MANE-VU) region. The purpose of this project is threefold.

  • First, we are to produce for 2009, 20132012, and 2018 growth and control factors for area, non-energy point, and nonroad source emissions for the MANE-VU region;
  • Second, we are to apply those factors to the 2002 MANE-VU inventory to calculate future year emissions; and
  • Third, we are to provide technical documentation with the level of detail needed to duplicate the results of our projections methodology in a format suitable to include within the MANE-VU regional haze SIP.

In addition to the multiple forecast years of 2009/20132012/2108, MANE-VU desires to examine multiple emission control scenarios. These strategies are: a) an “on-the-books” (OTB) control strategy accounting for final regulations that will result in additional emission reductions after 2002; b) an “on-the-way” (OTW) scenario accounting for controls associated with regulations that are not yet finalized but are likely to achieve additional reductions by 2009; and c) one or more “beyond-on-the-way” (BOTW) scenarios to account for controls from potential new regulations that may be necessary to meet attainment and other regional air quality goals.

DELIVERABLES SUMMARY

Table 1 provides a summary of the services to be provided and the deliverables to be prepared under this contract. The growth and control factor files, as well as the emission projection files, will be created for sixnine scenarios: 2009, 20132012, and 2018 OTB/OTW; 2009, 2013, and 2018 OTW; and 2009, 20132012, and 2018 BOTW. Note that the OTB and OTW scenarios will be combined and delivered as a future year OTB/OTW inventory, but the documentation will be presented to delineate what controls were considered OTB and OTW.

TECHNICAL PLAN

Our technical plan is based on our experience supporting RPOs in developing improved emission projection data/methods and preparing regional emission projection inventories. Our knowledge of work currently being done for MARAMA and other RPOs, and the lessons learned supporting the RPOs, will help us perform this work a timely, cost-efficient manner.

Task 1 – Prepare Inventory Development Work Plan

A kick-off meeting was held on May 16, 2005 to review the draft work plan. During the call, MACTEC summarized the preliminary technical approach, schedule, and deliverable items. MACTEC identified the types of input that we expect to receive from the States. After the kickoff meeting, States provided additional comments that are addressed in a response to comments memo and in this draft final work plan.

Table 1 – Summary of Deliverables and Services Provided

Task / Deliverables / Services Provided
1. Prepare Final Work Plan / Draft Final Work Plan
Final Work Plan / Present draft work plan via teleconference; facilitate discussion among MANE-VU members about proposed data sources and methodologies; identify where state-specific data is available; refine data source/methodologies; prepare draft final work plan and submit for review and comment; prepare and deliver final work plan.
2. Prepare Quality Assurance Project Plan / Draft QAPP
Final QAPP / Prepare and submit draft and final quality assurance project plan (QAPP)
3. Develop 2009, 20132012, and 2018 Growth Factors for MANE-VU / Draft Growth Factors in SMOKE and RPO Data Exchange Protocol Format
Final Growth Factors / Assemble EGAS and DOE growth data; identify source shutdowns; assemble state-specific growth data; assemble other data for nonroad and area sources.
4. Develop 2009, 20132012, and 2018 Control Factors for MANE-VU / Draft Control Factors in SMOKE and RPO Data Exchange Protocol Format
Final Control Factors / Prepare generic control factors by SCC/SIC; assemble state-specific control measures; identify sources with emission caps.
5. Develop and QA 2009, 20132012, and 2018 Emission Inventories for OTB, OTW, and BOTW scenarios / Future Year Emission Inventories in NIF3.0 files
QA/QC Reports / Apply growth and control factors to base year 2002 inventory to generate future year emission forecasts; implement QA/QC procedures identified in QAPP
6. Prepare Technical Support Document and Emission Summaries / Draft Documentation
Tabular Emission Summaries
Graphical Emission Summaries
Powerpoint Presentation
Draft Final Documentation / Provide draft documentation of growth and control factors, projection methodologies, and QA/QC activities; prepare emission summaries for agency review; prepare Powerpoint presentation on data, methods, and results of emission projections.
7. Project Management and Reporting / Conference call meeting notes
Technical meeting notes
Monthly progress reports
Final Report in PDF, MS-Word, and camera ready format
20 hard copies of Final Report
10 CDs containing relevant data files in NIF, SMOKE IDA, and RPO Data Exchange Protocol format / Participate in conference calls and technical meetings. Prepare meeting notes and monthly progress reports. Prepare Final Report for all tasks and provide hard copy and electronic versions of all deliverables and final data files
Optional Task 1. Sensitivity and Statistical Analysis / Technical Memo on Emission Projection Sensitivities / Obtain and evaluate alternative growth factors and their sensitivity on emission projectionss

The following paragraphs discuss our general approach for developing the future year growth/control factors and emission inventories. In general, we will prepare the future year inventories following the Emission Inventory Improvement Program Volume X Emission Projections document and EPA’s draft Emissions Inventory Guidance for Implementation of Ozone and Particulate Matter National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) and Regional Haze Regulations, June 2003. Since we anticipate that the types of data needed and methods used will vary by source category, we have organized the discussion of projection data and methods by the following source categories:

  • stationary non-EGU point sources and area sources,
  • special area source categories, including fires and ammonia emissions from animal husbandry operations,
  • nonroad sources modeled using the NONROAD model, and
  • other nonroad sources.

Our general approach for assembling future year data is to use USEPA’s Economic Growth Analysis System Version 5.0, supplement these data with available state-specific growth data, use control factors for Federal regulations that we developed for VISTAS and the CAIR rule, obtain and format control factors for state-specific regulations, and provide the growth/control factors in an easy-to-review format for review by the MANE-VU states.

Data/Methods for Stationary Non-EGU Point Sources and Traditional Area Sources

For non-EGU point sources and traditional area sources, MACTEC will perform the following activities to assemble growth/control data needed for the 2009, 20132012, and 2018 inventories:

  • Obtain, review, and apply the most growth factors developed by U.S. EPA in their Economic Growth Analysis System (EGAS) Version 5;
  • Obtain, review, and apply any state-specific growth factors to override the EGAS national/regional default data;
  • Obtain, review, and apply control assumptions for both Federal and state-specific “on-the-books”, “on-the-way”, and “beyond-on-the-way” control programs;
  • Obtain information regarding new sources or sources that have shut down after 2002 and add them to the projection inventories or set the emissions to zero; and
  • Provide data files in EXCEL or ACCESS formats for review and comment.

Each of these activities is discussed in more detail in the following paragraphs.

EGAS Version 5.0 is a newly revised tool that can generate emissions growth factors by sector. Growth factors from EGAS 5.0 can be used to project emissions inventories for multiple pollutants. This tool has been revised from EGAS Version 4.0 in a number of ways:

  • Growth factors are now available out to 2035;
  • Growth factors are available by 2- and 3-digit SIC codes, MACT codes, and SCCs;
  • Users can customize economic activity datasets to develop growth factors or rely upon default datasets in EGAS 5.0.

Two primary sources of data were used in developing the EGAS 5.0 growth factors:

  • State-specific growth rates from the Regional Economic Model, Inc. (REMI) Policy Insight® model, Version 5.5 (used in the development of the EGAS Version 5.0). The REMI socioeconomic data are available by 4-digit SIC code at the state level.
  • Energy consumption data from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Annual Energy Outlook 2004, with Projections through 2025 for use in generating growth factors for non-EGU fuel combustion sources. These data include regional or national fuel-use forecast data that were mapped to specific SCCs for the non-EGU fuel use sectors (e.g., commercial coal, industrial natural gas).

We will initially extract the default EGAS 5.0 national and regional data for the MANE-VU States and provide it in an easy-to-review format.

Two adjustments to the default EGAS 5.0 data will be made. First, EGAS 5.0 contains the Annual Energy Outlook 2004 data. A newer set of projection data is available in the Annual Energy Outlook 2005, with Projections through 2025, published in January 2005. We will obtain and use the Annual Energy Outlook 2005 instead of the default 2004 AEO that is embedded in EGAS 5.0. We will perform a brief comparison to identify major differences between the two forecasts, and confirm with the States that the 2005 AEO data should be used.

A second adjustment may be necessary to the REMI-based growth rates. The USEPA evaluated industries with significant emissions and unexplainably large growth rates in REMI as compared to data in industry group forecasts, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) projections and Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) historical growth from 1987-2002. USEPA made specific changes in the projections for the Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) for several sectors (e.g., plastics, synthetic rubber, carbon black, cement manufacturing, primary metals, fabricated metals, motor vehicles and equipment, and general solvent usage) where the REMI-based rates were unrealistic or highly uncertain (see Sections 4.1.1 and 4.1.2 of Clean Air Interstate Rule Emissions Inventory Technical Support Document, March 2005). We will review USEPA’s adjustments to the REMI data and make recommendations as to whether these should be made for MANE-VU projection inventories.

EGAS 5.0 does not produce county level projections. If States have county-level projection data, we will use that data in lieu of the EGAS data to perform growth projections on a county basis. Initial discussions with the States during the kickoff call revealed that most States are pursuing obtaining state- or county-specific data from their planning departments. The exact types and formats for state-specific data are not known at this time. MACTEC will work with each State in obtaining and formatting growth data.

EGAS 5.0 accounts only for growth – it does not take into account emission reductions that may occur as the result of new “on-the-books” or “on-the-way” control measures. For example, on-board vapor recovery systems are installed on 1999 and newer vehicles to control emissions from gasoline refueling. Thus, while gasoline consumption in the MANE-VU region will likely grow significantly in the future, emissions will not grow at the same rate (and may eventually decline) because of the gradual phase-in of the on-board vapor recovery systems. Another example is the implementation of the MACT standards. EPA anticipates reductions in PM and SO2 emissions after 2002 as a result of the Industrial Boiler/Process Heater MACT standard.

Table 2 identifies the control strategies that will be included in the on-the-books (OTB) scenario. These are final regulations that will result in post-2002 emission reductions. Table 3 identifies the control strategies that will be included in the on-the-way (OTW) scenario. These generally are proposed regulations or actions that will result in post-2002 emission reductions.

MACTEC has already compiled most of the control information that reflects Federal point and area source controls to be applied in the forecast period. We will provide these Federal control factors to MANE-VU Sates for review and comment. MACTEC will also request that States provide information on any state-specific controls that will affect point and area source categories in the forecast period. We are aware that many MANE-VU States have adopted, or will soon adopt, many of the model rules developed by the Ozone Transport Commission. These model rules affect solvent cleaning, auto refinishing, portable fuel containers, consumer products, architectural coatings, and additional point sources.

The growth/control factors discussed in the previous paragraphs are somewhat generic. MACTEC will attempt to obtain source-specific information for the major industrial sources. The following are examples of the source-specific control information that we will compile:

  • Future emission reductions may result from the petroleum refinery enforcement initiative, which affects many of the refineries in the region. We will ask States to identify future emission reductions resulting from the refinery enforcement initiative, as well as any other reductions from State enforcement settlements.
  • Phase I of the NOx SIP Call applies to non-EGUs, including large industrial boilers and turbines, and cement kilns. We will review the available State rules and guidance documents to determine the affected sources and ozone season allowances. Since these controls are to be in effect by the year 2007, we are recommending that the resulting emissions calculated from NOx SIP Call affected sources be capped at 2007 levels and carried forward at that capped level for future years so that future emissions will not be “grown” beyond the limits of the emission caps.
  • Best Available Retrofit Technology (BART) requirements may affect industrial boilers, pulp and paper plants, cement kilns, and other large non-EGU point sources. MANE-VU has performed some preliminary analysis to identify BART-eligible sources and potential reductions from applying BART. We will work with MANE-VU in identifying the specific sources and controls that are likely to result in emission reductions from BART.

We will also ask States to identify any new major sources that came on-line after 2002 or any major sources that have permanently shut down existing emission units. We will ask that information on new sources be provided in NIF3.0 format and be added to the future inventories. Sources that have shut down will remain in the inventory, but their emission will be set to zero in the future years.

Note that the States need to review the information in Tables 2 and 3, and identify any additional OTB or OTW control programs that may be missing. In addition to the OTB and OTW controls, MACTEC will work with MANE-VU staff in identifying “beyond-on-the-way” (BOTW) emission control measures. MACTEC has already identified numerous candidate control measures as part of our work for MRPO, and we expect that MANE-VU will identify additional strategies. We will work with MANE-VU in translating high-level control strategies into detailed SCC/SIC/source specific control factors.