Spectrum of Terrorism

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CHAPTER-3

THREAT ANALYSIS

SPECTRUM OF TERRORISM

In a large pluralist country like India, the problems of internal security management are enormous. Relatively minor incidents can snowball into major conflagrations. India is a multireligious, multiethnic, and multicultural society with a history of communal and ethnic violence among various groups. It is not difficult to stir up trouble by pitting one group against the other. The rise of contentious politics between different groups based on confessional, ethnic, racial, linguistic, and other divisive criteria is the root cause of many secessionist movement now flourishing in India. Internal security management has been an important component of India's national security management ever since India became independent in 1947.[1] Counter-insurgency became an important component of internal security management following the launching of an insurgent movement by a group of communist insurgents in what now constitutes the State of Andhra Pradesh immediately after India became independent and by some of the tribals living in India's North-East in the period starting from 1956. While the communist insurgency, which still continues as a Maoist movement in India, is now an ideological movement for the spread and implementation of the Maoist ideology, the tribal insurgent movements sought independence for various tribal groups living in the border areas of India's North-East. These insurgencies drew the support of China and Pakistan.

Glimpses of terror and torture were noticed during and before the independence and hence Counter-terrorism became a new component of India's internal security management in 1981 when a group of Sikhs living in the State of Punjab in India as well as in the UK, the then West Germany, Canada and the US took to terrorismin order to pressurise the Government of India to concede their demand for an independent State for the Sikhs to be called Khalistan. The Khalistani terrorist organisations were largely funded by some members of the Sikh diaspora abroad and by the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) of Pakistan. They were trained and armed by the ISI in camps in Pakistani territory.

The 1980s also saw the emergence of disaster management as an important component of internal security management following an accidental explosion in a chemicals factory run by the Union Carbide company of the US in Bhopal in Madhya Pradesh in 1984, which resulted in the deaths of hundreds of civilians. Even before the 1980s, we had a disaster management capability, but this related essentially to management of famines, floods and earth quakes. The explosion in a chemicals factory and the resulting deaths brought home to the Indian policy-makers the need to develop specialised disaster management capabilities relating to industrial explosions and other disasters of an unconventional nature caused by nature, accidents or intentionally by terrorists. The concept of disaster management and the drill associated with it have been constantly updated keeping in view the likelihood of acts of terrorism involving the use of weapons of mass destruction (WMD).

The period between 1989 and 2001 saw new challenges confronting the Indian counter-terrorism managers and policy-makers.[2]

•The emulation of the Afghan Mujahideen of the 1980s by some organisations in the Indian State of Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) in order to exercise pressure on the Government of India to concede their demands, which related to either independence for the State or its annexation by Pakistan. The cadres of these organisations, which have been active in the State since 1989, are funded, trained, armed and guided by the ISI.

•The infiltration initially into J&K and subsequently into other parts of India of trained and armed members of four Pakistani pan-Islamic organisations; the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HUM), the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI) and the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM). These Pakistani pan-Islamic organisations help the terrorist organisations of J&K to achieve their objectives and to keep the Indian security forces and counter-terrorism agencies preoccupied with internal security duties in other parts of India by indulging in acts of terrorism.

•The emergence of suicide terrorism as a strategic weapon of great lethality. Suicide terrorism was first used in Indian territory by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) to assassinate Rajiv Gandhi, former Indian Prime Minister, at Chennai in May,1991. Pakistani’s four pan-Islamic organisations joined International Islamic Front (IIF) formed in 1998, and since then have been increasingly resorting to suicide terrorism by operating from Pakistan and two of them (the LeT and the HUJI) also have sanctuaries in Bangladesh.

•The beginning of economic terrorism with the attacks on the tourist infrastructure in J&K and with the explosions of March,1993, in Mumbai, which were directed against carefully selected economic targets such as the stock exchange, a tourist hotel etc. These explosions were carried out by a group of Indian Muslims trained and equipped by the ISI.

•Narco terrorism and the increasing use of narcotics by different terrorist groups as a source of funding for their terrorist operations.

•The emergence of links between the Pakistan-based pan-Islamic jihadi terrorist organisations and the trans-national mafia group headed by the Karachibased Dawood Ibrahim(the master-minded 1993Mumbai explosions)has been designated by the USA as an international terrorist following evidence of his contacts with Al Qaeda.

•Large-scale illegal immigration into India from Bangladesh, which is threatening to change the demographic composition of sensitive areas in India's North-East and provides sanctuaries for jihadi terrorists based in Bangladesh for their operations in Indian territory.

The pan-Islamic and other jihadi terrorists have introduced certain new modus operandi, in addition to their use of hand-held weapons, improvised explosive devices and hijacking of aircraft. These new modus operandi are hostage-taking on the ground directed against Indians as well as foreign nationals in order to secure their demands, deliberate attacks on places of worship in order to provoke inter-communal clashes, mass killing of members of the Hindu community in J&K in order to force them to leave the state and attacks on soft targets such as shopping areas in order to create panic.

Source- terrorists_list_j&k.htm

Terrorism in India is not just confined to J & K and the North East, but other parts of the country have also witnessed increased terrorist activities. In December 2001, the heart of Indian democracy, the Parliament was a target of terrorist attack and Mumbai was again targeted on 26 November 2008. In the wake of the Mumbai terror attack on November 26-29 which were aimed at weakening the "fabric of our nationhood", in which citizens of several countries also lost their lives, Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh said that terrorism had become "a threat to peace and freedom everywhere and pose a challenge to democracy at home, to democracy in our region, to democracy around the world".[3] The arc of terrorism is spreading to the other parts of the country as well popularly known as hidden wars in the form of Naxalism. Naxalism is a radical form of communism, advocating armed struggle and elimination of class enemies in order to achieve its goal.

The Internal Security situation in the country has thus shown distinct signs of improvement and also there has been significant decline in the level of infiltration from across the borders and the resultant terrorist activities in the valley of Kashmir and as well as North-Eastern States. In both these areas, the civil society is emerging and the economy is showing signs of recovery. Consequent to Mumbai 26/11, terrorism in the hinterland also has been by and large under control and a number of terrorist modules have been proactively neutralized. Terrorism in its contemporary phase claimed its first victim in Punjab in 1978, although communal and ethnic violence has been a part of the Indian scene since independence. Punjab now is a peaceful state with no incident of terrorism. As far as Left Wing Extremists(LWE) is concerned, the security forces achieved some notable successes in arresting/neutralizing elements of the top leadership however, this is a long drawn out battle and needs to be persevered with both in terms of operations against the armed elements as well as the all round development of LWE affected areas. Apropos, the Government continues to strengthen the national security apparatus in order to meet the grave challenges posed by the menace of terrorism.

TERRORISM IN JAMMU & KASHMIR

Background/Genesis of Terrorism

Obsessed with making J&K a part of Pakistan and frustrated by the misadventure and losses in the three wars with India, a Low Intensity Conflict has been initiated by Pakistan. The people of J&K have been instigated and coerced by Pakistan sponsored terrorism for demanding a separate country. Gen Zia-ul-Haq the de-facto dictator of Pakistan conceived ‘OP TOPAC' in 1988 and said, “Pakistan is incomplete without Kashmir and therefore our objective is to make Kashmir a part of Pakistan through an amalgam of subterfuge, subversion, force and religious fundamentalism”.[4] This coupled with socio-economic and religious factors prevailing in the state practically led to the rise of terrorism in Kashmir. The three broad phases of "OP TOPAC" are:-

• Phase I. The main objective of this phase was to support a low level terrorism against the regime to put it under siege.

• Phase II. Keep the Indian Army committed on the border, destroy base depots, headquarters and administrative installations in the valley region, deter conventional war through nuclear deterrence (Sabre rattling) and widen arc of militancy to other parts of the country including NE.

• Phase III. Possession of Kashmir valley by an all out war when time is ripe.

Terrorism escalated in the J &K in 1989 and President’s Rule was imposed in 1990. Till late 90s not every part of J&K was affected by this draconian nuance and only a portion of the valley was affected. However, today, only Ladakh due to its geographical isolation and ethnic diversity is left unaffected. The Kashmir valley being the worst, terrorism has spread to rest of the state including Jammu and extending upto Kathua. In the spate of terrorist violence, thousands of people have died and driven out of their homes including exodus of Kashmiri pandits. Pakistani troops infiltrated in Kargil in 1999 and captured Indian territory. India successfully evicted the infiltration as a result of 50 days of intense fighting.Consequent to terrorist attacking the Parliament on 13 December 2001, India mobilized its Armed Forces in 2001-2002 on the Pakistan border in order to stop cross border terrorism.

Present Situation in J&K

The State of Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) has been affected by terrorist and secessionist violence, sponsored and supported from across the border, foralmost two decades. The levels of terrorist violence and encounters in the hinterland of J&K are inextricably linked to the levels of successful infiltration from across the border. Since inception of militancy in J&K, 13,846 Civilians and 4,807 Security Force (SF) personnel have lost their lives (upto 31.12.2011)[5]. The statistical details from the year 2005 to 2011 are shown in the table below:-

Source:- Annual Report:2011-12, Ministry of Home Affairs-Government of India

“About 350-370 (militants) are assessed to be operating in Jammu and Kashmir;out of which approximately 38 per cent are foreign militants, primarily Pakistani. Militants continued to work towards recruiting local youth in certain areas of the State. Camps in POK and Pakistan were also believed to have between 2,000 and 2,500 terrorists."[6] Despite a ‘multi-pronged approach’ to contain border infiltration, which included, inter alia, strengthening of border management and multi-tiered and multi-modal deployment along international borders/ LoC and infiltration routes, construction of border fencing, improved technology, weapons and equipment for security forces, infiltration by Pakistan-based terrorists continued. The terrorist groups in J&K resort to kidnapping, minority massacre, concentrate for operation and then melt away, choose soft targets, select crowded places for actions, execution of informants, use propaganda effectively, exploit religious bigotry, carry out stand off attacks, IED/Ambush/suicide attacks on posts/sniping both along border and in the mainland.

Thus, the situation continues to be difficult. The people in the state are sick and tired of violence. They are disillusioned with Pakistan, and accession to Pakistan is no longer a popular demand. Successful holding of the parliamentary and then state assembly elections has completely transformed the political scene. Religion, bigotry, and fanaticism are not the only factors responsible for the rise of terrorism in the state. The secessionist movement is being sustained not so much by ideology as by frustration and anger over poor governance(ineffective policies of the state and national governments).

Pakistan called for a unilateral Cease Fire Agreement(CFA) and Government of India(GoI) responded positively. The CFA came into being on 26 November 2003. The GoI has stepped up its development activities in the valley and massive civic action programmes sponsored by them are being under taken. Regrettably, Pakistan continued to violate the CFA, which have primarily been to facilitate terrorist infiltration across the border and LoC. There is a decline in the cross border infiltration of the terrorist due to the border fencing, lack of support thus leading to softening in stance by Pakistan. The morale of the terrorists is reported to be low and they are confused about the policies being followed by Pakistan.Sporadic terrorist violence continued, with strong indications that the terrorists were being directed by their handlers in Pakistan to kill more political, religious and dissenting separatist leaders.In January 2007, a delegation of All Party Hurriyat Conference(APHC) led by APHC Chairman Mirwaiz Umar Farooq visited Pakistan with the aim to garner support for the peace process. APHC Chairman has called for an end to the armed struggle to resolve the J & K problem. He stressed that the dialogue process should be given a chance as efforts through terrorism had not achieved any results. The sharp decline in militant fatalities was substantially a consequence of an increasing reluctance on their part to engage with the SFs, heightened sharply by the continuous loss of leadership. Despite isolated pools of continuing, low grade violence, the improved security scenario led to a huge rush of tourists into the State, with 2011 recording an estimated one million visitors, significantly outstripping the pre-militancy record of 700,000.[7] Increasing electoral participation has also provided grounds for further encouragement. Nevertheless, areas of profound concern persist.Terror funding also continued to flow into J&K.Disclosures of arrestees revealed linkages between cross-LoC traders, Pakistan-based militant ‘commanders’ and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). Meanwhile, the National Investigation Agency (NIA) has disclosed that the HM-backed and PoK-based Jammu and Kashmir Affectees Relief Fund Trust (JKART) had been funding terror in J&K.

Crucially, sustained separatist efforts to engineer an Intifada-type movement – street mobilization and stone pelting backed by calibrated terrorist violence – continued, though with little success from 2008-2011. While the unrest in the past may have substantially been the result of the Government's ‘mishandling’, there is reason to believe that public exhaustion and disillusionment with the separatist agenda has also contributed to the failure of the protests to secure wider traction. Amidst these concerns, the premature demands and proposals for further troop cuts and the withdrawal of the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) raised temperatures in the Valley. Similarly, despite the Army’s opposition to the withdrawal of AFSPA on the grounds that this could result in the "emergence of terror sanctuaries and safe havens", Chief Minister Omar Abdullah, on several occasions, reiterated the separatist and popular demand for partial removal of AFSPA. Those opposing AFSPA allege that it has been misused by the SFs.[8]

J&K is at crossroad. Though these measures, in addition to several others, have helped in improving the situation, any slackness on the part of State Government as well as New Delhi to fulfill their political goals will devoid the State of an opportunity to return to permanent peace sooner than later.Dramatic and continuous improvements havebeen registered in the security environment in the terror-wracked State of J&K however residual dangers continue to exist and processes of radicalizationcontinue across the Valley, suggesting the possibility of a future conflagration.

Government have adopted various counter terrorism strategies to neutralize the efforts and capabilities of militants to disturb peace in the State. The Government has also encouraged policies to mainstream the youth and discourage the local youth from joining militancy. The security situation in J & K is monitored and reviewed by the Chief Minister of J&K in the Unified Headquarters/Command with senior representatives of the State Government, Army, Central Armed Police Forces and other security agencies. The MHA also closely and continuously monitors the security situation in tandem with the State Government and the Ministry of Defence. To support the State Government in its initiatives, the Central Government has been making available Central Armed Police Forces as necessary, and helping to strengthen the State Police. The endeavour of the Government has been to[9]:-

Proactively take suitable measures by all the SFs to reduce infiltration of terrorists from across the border; and to identify, locate and apprehend the terrorists who may have crossed over; as also their local associates.

To ensure that the democratic process is sustained and primacy of civil administration is restored to effectively tackle the socioeconomic problem facing the people on account of the effects of the militancy in the State.

To ensure sustained peace and to provide adequate opportunities to all sections of the people in the State who eschew violence to effectively represent their view points and to redress their genuine grievances.