South of Litani, Southeast of Damascus, West of the Jordan, Somewhere in the Negev

Geographical Analysis

South of Litani, Southeast of Damascus, west of the Jordan, somewhere in the Negev.

1: Coastal plain

2: Galilee north to Litani west of Hermon

3: Negev

4: Central Massif to Jordan River

5: Jerusalem as pivot

6: Crossroads of empire

Heartland is the coastal plain. Population, trade link, economic foundation

Haifa and Jerusalem secondary

Galilee, Negev, West Bank strategic buffers

Strategic imperative

1: Protect the coastal plain

2: Create anchor in Central Massif—Jerusalem

3: Hold Galilee on Hermon-Litani Line

4: Have depth in Negev, ideal Eilat-Gaza line

5: Hold Jordan river line

6: Buffer Egypt

7: Manage foreign imperial threats

Grand Strategy

Problem

1: Population inferiority

2: Difficulty in controlling major global and regional powers at distance

3: Long borders, little strategic depth

4: In the way of any major empire

Advantage—Interior lines

Solution

1: Maintain technological and cultural superiority

2: Maintain superb intelligence apparatus for maximum warning and leverage

5: Initiate war at time of own choosing taking advantage of interior lines

6: Maintain balance of power of border states taking advantage of geographical and cultural disunity

7: Be of use to a strategic patron

8: Be in position to endanger strategic interest of others—turn location into advantage.

Strategy

1: The combination of a major external force with a rising of the Palestinians is the major threat to Israel, along with a nuclear strike.

2: Aligning Israeli and Egyptian interests is critical. A hostile Egypt aligned with the Palestinians is an existential threat.

3: Maintaining Hashemite control over Jordan protects eastern frontier. Maintain common interest with Jordan.

4: Manipulate political system in Syria-Lebanon to maintain instability. Cope with threats as needed.

5: Split and control Palestinians; agree to two-state solution that cripples Palestinians.

6: Maintain alignment with the United States without losing freedom of action.

7: Devise strategy on nuclear weapons.

8: Maintain aggressive intelligence operations designed to identify emerging global shifts as early as possible.

Tactics

1: Maintain liaison with Egypt against Hamas, reassuring Egypt that it would not permit an independent Hamas dominated state in Gaza.

2: Maintain overwatch and influence on the Mubarak succession.

3: Work closely with Fatah to split Palestinians

4: Work closely with Jordan to contain Fatah

5: Maintain balance of power in Syria-Lebanon, retaining strike but not occupation strategy.

6: Maintain importance to the United States as an intelligence source. Build humint capability to block any U.S. split with Israel.

7: Keep Russia out of the region.

8: Engage in peace promise to provide cover for U.S. in collaborating with Israel. Separate peace and security tracks.

9: Maintain strike capacity against Iran.