FOR RELEASE: OCTOBER 21, 2010
SESTAK CLOSES GAPIN PENNSYLVANIA SENATE RACE,
QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITYPOLL FINDS;
BUT VOTERS WANT THEIR SENATOR TO OPPOSE OBAMA
The race for Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate seat is now a statistical dead heat with Republican Pat Toomey getting 48 percent of likely voters to 46 percent for Democratic U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
This compares to a 50 – 43 percent likely voter lead for Toomey, a former congressman, in a September 22 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.
Toomey is beating Sestak 88 – 8percent among Republicans and 56 – 35percent among independent voters. But Sestak is winning 89 – 7percent among Democrats. Thirteen percent of Toomey’s voters and 9 percent of Sestak backers say they might change their mind before Election Day. The5 percent of undecided voters includes 9 percent of independent voters.
“Pennsylvania is a blue state and Democrats there have begun to come home,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “They are more engaged than they were earlier in the race. This is not unusual, especially in off-year elections. Democrats often engage later in the campaign than do Republicans. The political environment is more favorable now for them, as evidenced by President Barack Obama’s improved, but still decidedly negative, job approval rating.”
President Obama gets a negative 44 – 53 percent job approval rating, compared to a negative 40 – 56 percent September 22.
There is a sizable gender gap in the Senate race, with Toomey leading 54 – 40percent among men and Sestak ahead 53 – 41percent among women.
-more-
Quinnipiac University Poll/October 21, 2010 – page 2
“Sestak’s lead among women has remained virtually unchanged over the past month, but Toomey’s once 21-point lead among men has been cut by seven points,” said Brown.
Pennsylvania likely voters’ views of the economy are strongly tied to their candidate preference. Among the 14 percent who think the economy is improving, Sestak leads 84 – 14percent, while Toomey leads 70 – 23 percent among the 35 percent who think it is worsening. Sestak leads 51 – 44percent among the 49 percent who think it is remaining the same.
Despite the recent Democratic lean in Pennsylvania politics, likely voters say 51 – 43 percent that they want their new U.S. senator to oppose rather than support President Obama’s policies. Voters also say 45 – 38percentthey want Republicans, rather than Democrats, to control the U.S. Senate next year.
“There is still a mood in the likely Pennsylvania electorate for change, which appears more likely to help Toomey than Sestak,” said Brown. “Among the 33 percent of likely voters who say they are angry with the federal government, Toomey leads 77 – 17percent.
“This is now a very close race in factors beyond the matchup. When voters are asked which candidate most shares their values they split 44 – 44percent. Sestak is viewed favorably by 45 percent and unfavorably by 36 percent. Toomey gets thumbs up from 46 percent and thumbs down from 37 percent,” said Brown.
From October 13 – 17, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,046 Pennsylvanialikely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research.
For more data or RSS feed– , call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.
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4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and thecandidates were Joe Sestak the Democrat and Pat Toomey the Republican, for whomwould you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote forSestak or Toomey?
(This table includes Leaners)
LIKELY VOTERS......
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Sestak 46% 8% 89% 35% 40% 53%
Toomey 48 88 7 56 54 41
SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 - 1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) ------
DK/NA 5 3 4 9 5 5
RATING ECONOMY Q17 ANGRY WITH GOVERNMENT
Better Worse Same FedQ19
Sestak 84% 23% 51% 17%
Toomey 14 70 44 77
SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - 1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - -
DK/NA 2 7 5 6
TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the
candidates were Joe Sestak the Democrat and Pat Toomey the Republican, for whomwould you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote forSestak or Toomey? (This table includes Leaners)
LIKELY VOTERS..
Oct 21 Sep 22
2010 2010
Sestak 46 43
Toomey 48 50
SMONE ELSE(VOL) - -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - -
DK/NA 5 7
4a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before theelection?
LIKELY VOTERS......
CAND CHOICE Q4
Tot JS PT
Made up 88% 90% 87%
Might change 11 9 13
DK/NA 1 1 -
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5. Is your opinion of - Joe Sestak favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heardenough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS......
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Favorable 45% 14% 80% 37% 43% 49%
Unfavorable 36 59 6 47 39 32
Hvn't hrd enough 18 24 14 14 18 18
REFUSED 1 2 - 2 1 2
TREND: Is your opinion of - Joe Sestak favorable, unfavorable or haven't youheard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS..
Oct 21 Sep 22
2010 2010
Favorable 45 44
Unfavorable 36 34
Hvn't hrd enough 18 20
REFUSED 1 2
6. Is your opinion of - Pat Toomey favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heardenough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS......
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Favorable 46% 78% 10% 55% 52% 40%
Unfavorable 37 7 72 29 33 42
Hvn't hrd enough 15 14 18 14 14 17
REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1
TREND: Is your opinion of - Pat Toomey favorable, unfavorable or haven't youheard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS..
Oct 21 Sep 22
2010 2010
Favorable 46 44
Unfavorable 37 31
Hvn't hrd enough 15 23
REFUSED 1 2
7. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you believe most shares yourvalues,
Joe Sestak or Pat Toomey?
LIKELY VOTERS......
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Sestak 44% 10% 85% 33% 40% 50%
Toomey 44 80 5 50 49 37
NO DIFFERENCE(VOL) 3 1 2 6 3 2
DK/NA 10 10 8 11 9 11
8. Would you like to see the next United States Senator elected fromPennsylvania generally support Barack Obama's policies or oppose Barack Obama'spolicies?
LIKELY VOTERS......
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Support 43% 8% 85% 30% 38% 50%
Oppose 51 88 10 63 56 46
DK/NA 5 4 5 7 6 4
9. Would you prefer to have the Democrats or the Republicans control the U.SSenate next year, or doesn't it matter to you?
LIKELY VOTERS......
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Democrats 38 3 83 23 34 44
Republicans 45 86 5 50 49 40
Doesn't matter 14 10 11 23 15 13
DK/NA 3 1 1 5 3 2
13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job asPresident?
LIKELY VOTERS......
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Approve 44% 11% 85% 30% 39% 50%
Disapprove 53 87 13 64 57 47
DK/NA 3 2 2 6 4 3
15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling theeconomy?
LIKELY VOTERS......
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Approve 40% 10% 77% 26% 36% 45%
Disapprove 55 89 17 68 60 49
DK/NA 4 1 6 6 3 6
16. Would you describe the state of Pennsylvania's economy these days asexcellent, good, not so good, or poor?
LIKELY VOTERS......
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Excellent ------
Good 17 9 22 17 16 17
Not so good 52 50 56 50 53 51
Poor 30 41 19 32 29 31
DK/NA 1 - 3 1 1 1
17. Do you think Pennsylvania's economy is getting better, getting worse, orstaying about the same?
LIKELY VOTERS......
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Better 14% 2% 24% 15% 13% 16%
Worse 35 51 17 39 34 37
The same 49 47 57 46 51 47
DK/NA 1 1 2 - 1 1
19. I am going to mention four phrases and ask you which one best describes howyou feel about the way the federal government works. Do you feel enthusiastic,satisfied but not enthusiastic, dissatisfied but not angry, or angry?
LIKELY VOTERS......
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Enthusiastic, 4% - 9% 1% 3% 6%
Satisfied 22 7 41 16 21 23
Dissatisfied 41 42 39 39 39 43
Angry 33 50 11 43 37 28
DK/NA - 1 - - - 1
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