Algeria – Political and Security Summary

Contents

  1. Situational Summary
  2. Summary Assessment
  3. Other Key Points
  4. Summary of Algerian Politics and Security Issues
  5. Background Information
  6. Resources

Situational Summary

Protests broke out in Algeria on the 3rd of January in Algiers and several large cities in Algeriawith participants citing the cost of basic food items, corruption, a lack of political and social freedom and the mismanagement of the country’s resource wealth as their main grievances. These initial protests were contained by government by the 10th of January through measures to increase food subsidies; however a wave of some 12 self-immolations over the next two weeks kept tensions high.

On the 20th of January, opposition parties began organizing protests in defiance of laws prohibiting. The most recent of these protests took place January 30 with unconfirmed reports claiming as many as 10,000 people turned out in the north-eastern city of Kabyle. The liberal, secular opposition party the Rally for Culture and Democracy (RCD), which is led by former presidential candidate Said Sadi and sympathizes with the grievances of ethnic Berbers was responsible for organizing the rally. The RCD currently holds 19/389 (5%) of parliamentary seats, but as much as a third of Algerians (including the Taureg) can be identified as Berber.

Summary Assessment

In Algeria, the true power rivalry is between President Abdelaziz Bouteflika and the head ofthe Military Directorate of Intelligence and Security (DRS) General Mohamed “Toufik” Mediene. President Bouteflika has achieved stability in Algeria since coming to power in 1999 through the pursuit of a conciliatory policy with radical Islamists and by reducing the role of the armed forces in politics. Mediene, widely regarded as the chief power broker and “kingmaker” in Algerian politics has held his post since 1990.

Recognizing that the dominance of the army in Algerian politics was unacceptable to Islamist militants and that concessions were required to end the civil war conflict (1991-2002), the two are reportedto have agreed to loosen the military’s grasp, culminating with the resignation of army Chief of Staff Mohamed Lamari in 2004. This process allowed Bouteflika to present a more peaceful Algeria to the world but also allowed Mediene to consolidate power over the military behind the scenes.

The past 18 months has seen the relationship between Bouteflika and Mediene breakdown over questions of succession, accelerated by the president’s poor health. Attempts by Bouteflika associatesto push forward Said Bouteflika, the president’s brother as well as General Mohamed Betchine, a former boss of Mediene’s as potential successors almost immediately Mediene implicated a number of high profile employees of the state energy company, Sonatrach, in charges of corruption along with Minster of Energy Chakib Khelil. All were Bouteflika loyalists and the move was seen as a direct assertion of power by Mediene. Talk of succession has since subsided.

Whether the current protests around Algeria spill over into the reality of genuine regime change are ultimately linked to whether Mediene and those loyal to him see the protests as an opportunity to take power from Bouteflika. Given the President’s poor health, this would appear to be a drastic course of action, however Mediene himself is 72 and may regard the opportunity as too good to pass up. It is also interesting to note that General Mediene is Berber and grew up in Kabyle,the town that saw large protests January 30.Leaked cables have drawn a direct link between Mediene and Said Sadi, organizer of the protests and leader of the Rally for Culture and Democracy (RCD). It is unclear at this point whether Sadi is viewed as a potential future president by the Mediene faction, although he has run before, achieving 9% of the vote in 1995 and 25 in 2004 whilst boycotting the 1999 and 2009 polls.

Other Key Points

-The Algerian regime bears strong similarities to other autocratic governments in the region in that control of the state apparatus rests with the military and with an elite that has strong military ties. President Bouteflika, of the National Liberation Front (FLN), the political incarnation of the Algerian independence movement, came to power in 1999 and participated in 2009 presidential elections as independent candidate and won a third term for another five years.

-Cabinet was reshuffled in May 2010 and several of Bouteflika’s reformist allies were removed from government. Doubts regarding Mr Bouteflika's health fuel speculation regarding succession. The prime-minister, Ahmed Ouyahia, is reported to be viewed as a credible successor to Mr Bouteflika.

-Although President Bouteflika is nominal head of the armed forces and Minister of Defence, Ahmed Salah Gaid has been the Chief of Staff since 2004 and is a close friend of Bouteflika. The other key post of Deputy Minister is filled by retired general Abdelmalek Guenaizia, also an ally of Bouteflika. Therefore, while seeking to diminish military control of the state, Bouteflika has ensured that the force remains loyal too him.Yazid Zerhouni, Minister of State/Interior is a former FLN intelligence operative and Bouteflika loyalist.

-Bouteflika has also waged a struggle on all fronts to sever the traditional link between the government and the military. While he has largely succeeded, his influence has not extended to the security service, whose blessing is necessary for anyone holding public office. The Head of the Military Directorate of Intelligence and Security (DRS) since 1990 has been General Mohamed “Toufik” Mediene, widely regarded as the chief power broker and “kingmaker” in Algerian politics.

-Algeria’s poor relations with its western neighbor Morocco (largely over the question of Western Sahara – the Algerian/Moroccan border has been closed for 16 years as a result) dominate its regional discourse although relations with other neighboring states remain cordial. Relations with former colonist France have waned over the last decade as French has been phased out of public life in the country. Cooperation with the US has grown substantially post-9/11 with the US regarding Algeria as a key ally in the War on Terror. Algeria relies on Russia and China for most of its military hardware and the Chinese are building a strong commercial presence, trading infrastructure for access to hydrocarbons.

-The government's investment programme will require high levels of imported goods and services. Retail lending, except for housing, has been banned. The government has introduced a number of restrictions on foreign companies since 2008. These include: foreign companies are now restricted to a minority share in joint ventures with local companies; foreign investment must be approved by the National Investment Council; foreign investors must maintain a foreign-currency account in credit for the duration of the investment; and they must secure the finance to cover project costs from local sources.

-The military elite tolerate foreign investment as long as it does not impinge on their own retail operations or import concessions. The quality of the bureaucracy is extremely poor, and red tape and a reluctance to make decisions are major problems. Cronyism also plagues government departments, certainly in respect of hiring; less so in the award of contracts. The fact that unemployment remains high means that the bureaucracy is unlikely to be streamlined in the short term.

-Opposition politics is generally more open and unconstrained by the state than in the rest of the Arab world. The two major opposition parties, the National Rally for Democracy (RND) and the Movement of Society for Peace (MSP), formerly Hamas, are allied to the ruling party in a government of national unity and together control 64% of parliament.

-As in Egypt, a state of emergency has been in place in Algeria since the civil war(see below) and while this serves to legitimize the military regime to some extent, unlike in Egypt, the recency of civil war means that the state of emergency is not solely a tool for suppressing opposition and troublesome factions. Political gatherings are banned however.

-Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood remain key players in the political sphere in the form of the MSP. Crucially however, the party did not support the militant Islamists during the civil war, but continually supported peaceful means for achieving change and contested every election from its formation in 1991 to the present. The MSP should therefore be viewed as distinct at this stage, currently and historically, from more militant remnants of the rebel Islamist factions from the civil war.

-Modern Algerian politics are greatly influenced by the vestiges of the civil war which took place from 1991 to 2002 between rival Islamist factions and the state. While the conflict has largely been quelled, the risk of sporadic, localized attacks remains from Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). It should be noted that the eastern-central location of the majority of Algeria’s energy reserves overlaps with the known operational area of AQIM. The group’s ability to cause operational disruption should therefore be recognised although their ability to carry out large scale attacks has yet to be proven.

-While many of the preconditions exist for instability and regime change enabled by popular unrest, Algeria’s society is considerably freer and more open than other Arab countries. This, coupled with the recent memory of brutal civil war may temper any likelihood of truly violent upheaval.

-During the first few days of the protest, a Renault dealership in Algiers was attacked, damaging windows and vehicles. The protests have not taken a clear "anti-foreign" tone but because of perceived notions of Algeria's economy being exploited by foreign investment, there is a high chance that this could prove an easy rallying call for many frustrated young people. Algeria's history as a vanguard of anti-colonialist nationalist policies is deeply entrenched in society and the current generation may view attacking commercial representations of foreign nations as part of that narrative.

Detailed Summary of Algerian Politics and Security Issues

Aspects of Modern Algerian Politics

-The current regime in Algiers is headed by President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, of the National Liberation Front (FLN), who came to power in 1999 in what were largely regarded as rigged elections.

-Bouteflika has a military background and rose to prominence through the armed forces but since independence has been a career politician, becoming deputy of Tlemcen in the Constituent Assembly and Minister for Youth and Sport in the government led by Ahmed Ben Bella.After serving as Foreign Minister until 1978, he was seen as a potential “right-wing” presidential candidate, but was marginalized to the role of Minster of State before spending six years abroad. In 1989, the army brought him back to the central committee of the FLN but he remained on the sidelines, reportedly refusing to assume the presidency in 1994 because army would not guarantee him control of the armed forces.

-Bouteflika replaced Liamine Zeroual, who resigned suddenly and called elections on assertions that he had angered the hard line faction of the military by conceding too much ground to Islamist groups in the country during the period of civil war. While the exact reasons for Zeroual’s resignation are unclear, what is that he lost the support of the military. This appears to be due to his preferred conciliatory approach in dealing with the militant Islamists. Bouteflika has since adopted a similar approach which has proven successful, first in neutralizing the conflict and second in restoring stability to Algerian society. While there may be ultra right-wing elements in the military who resent this approach, it is unlikely to be a widely divise issue.

-The FLN is the socialist-leaning political party that grew out of the independence movement of the same name and has held power on and off since independence from France in 1962. The FLN is the dominant party in parliament, currently holding 136/389 seats (35%). The FLN leads a tripartite government of national unity with the RND and MSP called the presidential alliance which together holds 249/389 seats (64%). See below for further discussion of opposition politics.

-The first post-independence president, Ahmed Ben Balla combined the role of head of state with that commander of the armed forces. When Ben Balla attempted to neutralize opposition by co-opting dissenters into government, he was overthrown by the military led by Houari Boumédienne (Bouteflika was administrative secretary to Boumédienne) – the military has continued to play a central role in Algerian politics ever since - although Bouteflika has systematically sought to reduce military control over the state

Opposition Politics

-The largest opposition party in terms of parliamentary representation is the National Rally for Democracy (RND) which won 61/389 seats (16%) in 2007. The RND participates in a tripartite government of national unity with the FLN called the presidential alliance. The leader of the party is current Prime Minister Ahmed Ouyahia. The party’s platform broadly calls for a secular approach to deeper democracy and more evenly distributed development in Algerian Society.

-The Movement of Society for Peace (MSP) is the third largest opposition party with 52/389 seats (13%). The MSP, formerly Hamas, emerged from the Muslim Brotherhood in Algeria and was created in the early 1990s when the multi-party system was introduced. Like Hamas strands in other parts of the Middle East, the party calls for a greater role for Islam in society and political life and actively supports social programs around education and feeding schemes. Crucially, the party did not support the FIS during the civil war continually supporting peaceful means for achieving change. The MSP therefore remained legal and contested every election form its formation to the present. The MSP is the third participant in the ruling presidential alliance and is run by Bouguerra Soltani who does not hold a position in government and has attracted some degree of controversy over claims of corruption and ties to militant Islam

-Also significant is the left-wing Workers Party (PT) which holds 26/389 seats (7%) and is the largest party outside of the ruling coalition. The PT pursues a radical, secular, trade-unionist agenda and is closely allied with the Workers Party of France. The party is headed by Louisa Hanoune.

-Another important personality is Said Sadi, leader of the secular, liberal RCD who champion the cause of Berber peoples. The RCD is credited with organizing the most significant protest to date in Kabylie and boycotted the 2009 presidential elections. With as many as a third of Algerians speaking a Berber language, the potential support base for this party is significant and is also largely representative of the underclass of Algerian society.

-Outside of legal politics, key personalities include:

  • Rabeh Kebir, the former leader of Islamist group the Islamic Salvation Front (FIS) who was exiled but returned to the country on receiving amnesty for civil war offences in 2006. He remains banned but has indicated his desire to return to politics
  • Ahmed Taleb Ibrahimi – former presidential candidate in 1999 who was excluded in 2004 for links to FIS. Platform is moderate Islam and free market economic policy. His degree of current political activity remains unclear
  • Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) - Abdelmalek Droukdal, also known as Abu Musab Abdul Wadoud, is the current chief of the group. University-educated as a science student and well known for his bomb-making abilities, he has led the group since 2004, when its previous leader, Nabil Sahraoui, was killed in a firefight with Algerian forces. Amari Saifi, is a former leader of the group that remains an important figure. Saifi is best known for organizing the lucrative 2003 kidnapping of European tourists in the Algerian Sahara. He was known as the "Bin Laden of the desert" and classified as a "Specially Designated Global Terrorist" by the United States, a title shared by top al-Qaeda commanders before he was captured in Chad in 2004 and eventually extradited to Algeria. In February 2008, AQIM militants kidnapped two Austrian tourists in Tunisia and listed el-Para's release as one of their demands. Algerian courts recently sentenced him to death, though the last execution in the country occurred in 1993.

Politics and the Algerian Civil War

-Modern Algerian politics are greatly influenced by the vestiges of the civil war which took place from 1991 to 2002

-The conflict was sparked when elections were cancelled after the Islamic Salvation Front (FIS) won significant support. This act saw the military take effective control of the country, forcing President Chadli Bendjedid aside.

-After the FIS was banned and thousands of its members arrested, Islamist guerrilla groups rapidly emerged and began an armed campaign against the government and its supporters. These forces were broadly organized into two groups, the mountain-based Islamic Armed Movement (MIA) and the town-based Armed Islamic Group (GIA).