R GAM Model Outputs.

1 Variable

Variable / R2 / Deviance Explained
Precipitation / 0.0492 / 4.26%
Evapotranspiration / 0.109 / 9.62%
Growing Days / 0.124 / 10.3%
MTC / 0.102 / 8.43%
MTW / 0.0631 / 5.37%
Mean Annual Temperature / 0.124 / 10.3%

1 Variable (Growing Days)

> summary(gam.Harveys_red_duiker)

Family: binomial

Link function: logit

Formula:

HARV_DUIKR ~ s(GDD10_0112)

Parametric coefficients:

Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)

(Intercept) -1.02427 0.05623 -18.21 <2e-16 ***

---

Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1

Approximate significance of smooth terms:

edf Est.rank Chi.sq p-value

s(GDD10_0112) 7.647 9 196.7 <2e-16 ***

---

Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1

R-sq.(adj) = 0.124 Deviance explained = 10.3%

UBRE score = 0.074035 Scale est. = 1 n = 1937

> AUC.Harveys_red_duiker

AUC.Cal AUC.Eval AUC.Total

1 0.704504 0.6940888 0.7009262

> CutOff.Harveys_red_duiker

CutOff Sensitivity Specificity

1 0.2535454 64.38896 64.17539

1 Variable (Evapotranspiration)

> summary(gam.Harveys_red_duiker)

Family: binomial

Link function: logit

Formula:

HARV_DUIKR ~ s(EVTR0112)

Parametric coefficients:

Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)

(Intercept) -1.10351 0.05771 -19.12 <2e-16 ***

---

Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1

Approximate significance of smooth terms:

edf Est.rank Chi.sq p-value

s(EVTR0112) 7.516 9 192.5 <2e-16 ***

---

Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1

R-sq.(adj) = 0.109 Deviance explained = 9.62%

UBRE score = 0.070394 Scale est. = 1 n = 1937

> AUC.Harveys_red_duiker

AUC.Cal AUC.Eval AUC.Total

1 0.7111096 0.7127107 0.7116629

> CutOff.Harveys_red_duiker

CutOff Sensitivity Specificity

1 0.2691647 65.57162 65.71998

1 Variable (Precipitation)

> summary(gam.Harveys_red_duiker)

Family: binomial

Link function: logit

Formula:

HARV_DUIKR ~ s(PREC0112)

Parametric coefficients:

Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)

(Intercept) -1.01656 0.05295 -19.2 <2e-16 ***

---

Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1

Approximate significance of smooth terms:

edf Est.rank Chi.sq p-value

s(PREC0112) 7.724 9 96.14 <2e-16 ***

---

Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1

R-sq.(adj) = 0.0492 Deviance explained = 4.26%

UBRE score = 0.13367 Scale est. = 1 n = 1937

> AUC.Harveys_red_duiker

AUC.Cal AUC.Eval AUC.Total

1 0.6310157 0.6137018 0.6253353

> CutOff.Harveys_red_duiker

CutOff Sensitivity Specificity

1 0.2734062 59.65834 58.14649

3 Variables

Variable 1 / Variable 2 / Variable 3 / R2 / Deviance Explained
Mean annual temp / Precipitation / Evapotranspiration / 0.241 / 21.6%
Mean annual temp / MTC / Evapotranspiration / 0.201 / 16.5%, 17.7%
Mean annual temp / Growing Days / Evapotranspiration / 0.407 / 37.4%, 37.3%
Mean annual temp / MTW / Evapotranspiration / 0.29 / 26.9%, 26.6%
Precipitation / MTW / Evapotranspiration / 0.265 / 23%, 23.5%
MTC / MTW / Evapotranspiration / 0.219 / 19.8%, 20.2%
Growing Days / MTW / Evapotranspiration / 0.291 / 27.1%, 26.7%
Growing Days / Precipitation / Evapotranspiration / 0.238 / 19.6%, 20.9%
Growing Days / MTC / Evapotranspiration / 0.202 / 16.6%, 17.8%
Precipitation / MTC / Evapotranspiration / 0.25 / 21.3%, 21.6%
Precipitation / Mean annual temp / Growing Days / 0.457 / 41.3%, 40.6%
Precipitation / Mean annual temp / MTC / 0.19 / 16%, 16.4%
Precipitation / Mean annual temp / MTW / 0.235 / 23.4%, 22.3%
Precipitation / MTC / Growing Days / 0.193 / 16.6%
Precipitation / MTC / MTW / 0.174 / 15.5%
Precipitation / Growing Days / MTW / 0.237 / 22.4%
Mean annual temp / Growing Days / MTW / 0.419 / 39.6%
MTC / Growing Days / MTW / 0.376 / 33.4%
MTC / Growing Days / Mean annual temp / 0.445 / 38.8%
MTC / MTW / Mean annual temp / 0.368 / 32.4%

Chosen 3 Variables (Mean Annual Temperature, Growing Days and Precipitation)

> summary(gam.Harveys_red_duiker)

Family: binomial

Link function: logit

Formula:

HARV_DUIKR ~ s(PREC0112) + s(TMEAN0112) + s(GDD10_0112)

Parametric coefficients:

Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)

(Intercept) -1.762 1.215 -1.45 0.147

Approximate significance of smooth terms:

edf Est.rank Chi.sq p-value

s(PREC0112) 7.381 9 93.35 3.46e-16 ***

s(TMEAN0112) 7.285 9 334.35 < 2e-16 ***

s(GDD10_0112) 8.977 8 333.80 < 2e-16 ***

---

Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1

R-sq.(adj) = 0.457 Deviance explained = 40.6%

UBRE score = -0.26892 Scale est. = 1 n = 1937

> AUC.Harveys_red_duiker

AUC.Cal AUC.Eval AUC.Total

1 0.9000161 0.905485 0.9016668

> CutOff.Harveys_red_duiker

CutOff Sensitivity Specificity

1 0.3062144 82.26018 82.21226

Mistake

> summary(gam.Harveys_red_duiker)

Family: binomial

Link function: logit

Formula:

HARV_DUIKR ~ s(TMEAN0112) + s(PREC0112) + s(EVTR0112)

Parametric coefficients:

Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)

(Intercept) -1.25576 0.06976 -18.00 <2e-16 ***

---

Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1

Approximate significance of smooth terms:

edf Est.rank Chi.sq p-value

s(TMEAN0112) 3.537 8 100.6 <2e-16 ***

s(PREC0112) 6.411 9 130.7 <2e-16 ***

s(EVTR0112) 8.529 9 152.3 <2e-16 ***

---

Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1

R-sq.(adj) = 0.241 Deviance explained = 21.6%

UBRE score = -0.04774 Scale est. = 1 n = 1937

> AUC.Harveys_red_duiker

AUC.Cal AUC.Eval AUC.Total

1 0.8052946 0.7627378 0.7926731

> CutOff.Harveys_red_duiker

CutOff Sensitivity Specificity

1 0.2827372 70.95926 71.0015

5 Variables

Variable 1 / Variable 2 / Variable 3 / Variable 4 / Variable 5 / R2 / Deviation Explained
Growing Days / Mean Annual Temperature / Evapotranspiration / MTC / Precipitation / 0.49 / 43.8%
Growing Days / Mean Annual Temperature / Evapotranspiration / MTC / MTW / 0.513 / 48.6%
Growing Days / Mean Annual Temperature / Evapotranspiration / MTW / Precipitation / 0.484 / 45%
Growing Days / Mean Annual Temperature / MTW / MTC / Precipitation / 0.533 / 49.1%
Growing Days / Evapotranspiration / MTW / MTC / Precipitation / 0.448 / 38.5%
Evapotranspiration / Mean Annual Temperature / MTW / MTC / Precipitation / 0.446 / 38.3%

Chosen 5 Variables (Growing Days, Mean Annual Temperature, MTW, MTC, Precipitation)

> summary(gam.Harveys_red_duiker)

Family: binomial

Link function: logit

Formula:

HARV_DUIKR ~ s(MTW) + s(TMEAN0112) + s(GDD10_0112) + s(MTC) +

s(PREC0112)

Parametric coefficients:

Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)

(Intercept) -1.490 1.275 -1.169 0.243

Approximate significance of smooth terms:

edf Est.rank Chi.sq p-value

s(MTW) 6.749 9 127.47 < 2e-16 ***

s(TMEAN0112) 6.245 9 224.16 < 2e-16 ***

s(GDD10_0112) 1.000 1 210.53 < 2e-16 ***

s(MTC) 8.799 2 8.55 0.0139 *

s(PREC0112) 7.526 9 49.66 1.25e-07 ***

---

Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1

R-sq.(adj) = 0.533 Deviance explained = 49.1%

UBRE score = -0.3629 Scale est. = 1 n = 1937

> AUC.Harveys_red_duiker

AUC.Cal AUC.Eval AUC.Total

1 0.9312173 0.9339603 0.9321517

> CutOff.Harveys_red_duiker

CutOff Sensitivity Specificity

1 0.2861414 84.7569 84.75336

Outputs in ArcView

1 Variable Growing Days

Absent / 1559
Present / 1209
Total / 2768

Chosen 3 Variables (Mean Annual Temperature, Growing Days and Precipitation)

Absent / 1785
Present / 983
Total / 2768

Chosen 5 Variables (Growing Days, Mean Annual Temperature, MTW, MTC, Precipitation)

Absent / 1817
Present / 951
Total / 2768

R Output: Chosen 5 Variables (Growing Days, Mean Annual Temperature, MTW, MTC, Precipitation) Run before Prediction of Future.

> summary(gam.Harveys_red_duiker)

Family: binomial

Link function: logit

Formula:

HARV_DUIKR ~ s(MTW) + s(TMEAN0112) + s(GDD10_0112) + s(MTC) +

s(PREC0112)

Parametric coefficients:

Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)

(Intercept) -2.083 0.169 -12.33 <2e-16 ***

---

Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1

Approximate significance of smooth terms:

edf Est.rank Chi.sq p-value

s(MTW) 9.000 4 9.895 0.0422 *

s(TMEAN0112) 7.921 9 216.470 < 2e-16 ***

s(GDD10_0112) 7.132 9 217.651 < 2e-16 ***

s(MTC) 8.654 3 6.072 0.1082

s(PREC0112) 7.134 9 45.436 7.66e-07 ***

---

Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1

R-sq.(adj) = 0.541 Deviance explained = 50.5%

UBRE score = -0.38271 Scale est. = 1 n = 1937

> AUC.Harveys_red_duiker

AUC.Cal AUC.Eval AUC.Total

1 0.9365575 0.9260899 0.9333476

> CutOff.Harveys_red_duiker

CutOff Sensitivity Specificity

1 0.2735643 85.15112 85.10214

Area