Pre-Class Assignment: Lesson 13 Probability
COURSE SCHEDULE- Week 7
3/3-3/7
Monday 3/3: Sampling techniques using the computer
Randomness, Lesson12
Pre-class assignment: Lesson 13 Probability
(1) 13.1.1 What do we call the probability of an event? What are the possible values for probabilities? What does it mean if the P(event)=0 or 1? P(event does not occur)=?
(2) 13.1.2 Do quiz!
(3) 13.1.3 Record the answers to the study questions (1-5) !
(4)13.1.4 Do quiz!
(5) 13.2.1 When do we call two events disjoint? What is the addition rule for disjoint events? For each of the following cases, indicate if the two events, A and B are disjoint for a single observation.
A=Selecting a male television viewer.
B=Selecting someone who rarely uses the TV remote control.
A=Selecting a survey subject who is a registered Democrat.
B=Selecting a survey subject opposed to all welfare plans.
.
A=Selecting a math course.
B= Selecting a course that is interesting.
A=Selecting a person with blonde hair (natural or otherwise).
B=Selecting a person who is bald.
(6) 13.2.2When do we call two events independent? What is the multiplication rule for independent events?
Do you think smoking and having a baby of low birth weight are independent?
Let A= person is smoking
B= person had a baby of low birth weight
To find out you have to consider what do you think the overall chances are for a person to have a baby of low birth weight .O.K. Now consider that you know that a pregnant woman is smoking. Do you think that the chances that this mother, who was smoking during the pregnancy, will have a baby of low birth weight are larger , smaller or about the same than in general? If you answered anything but about the same you just proved that smoking had an influence the birth eight and you will conclude that A and B is this case are NOT INDEPENDENT. (Chances are in fact higher for having a baby of low birth weight if the person is smoking so we know A and B are not independent.)
For each of the following, indicate if the two events are independent for a single observation.
A=Getting a flat tire on the way to class.
B= Sleeping too late for class.
A=Finding your microwave oven inoperable.
B=Finding your battery-operated smoke detector inoperable.
A=Finding your kitchen light inoperable.
B=Finding your refrigerator inoperable.
(7) Skip 13.2.3 and Go to the next section 14.1.1
In 14.1.1 what is the example given for a conditional probability?
PROBLEM: Let A=person is a nurse
B=person is male
Consider the chances that you meet someone and this person is a nurse. If this person is male would you increase or decrease the estimate for you chances to see him to be a nurse? Why is that so? Are A and B independent?
(8) 14.3.1 and 14.3.2 Learn that we are all wrong about "hot hands"!
GROUP HOMEWORK ASSIGNMENT (Due 3/24/03)
LESSON 13 ACT 2, MBS-3, MRA-1, MRA-2, MRB-1, MRB-2, TRE-1 (all odd),TRE-3(all odd),YMM-1
LESSON 14 MBS-5, MCS-5, MRB-9
Thursday 3/6: Probability I.
No Assignments for the Spring Break! Enjoy your break!