NOT PROTECTIVELY MARKED
Police Service ofNorthern Ireland
LegacyInvestigation Branch
Case Sequencing Model
December 2016
CaseSequencingModel
Statutoryrequirements
Section 32ofthePolice (Northern Ireland)Act2000statesthatitshall bethegeneral dutyof police officers
(a) toprotect life andproperty; (b) topreserve order;
(c) toprevent thecommissionofoffences;
(d)whereanoffencehasbeencommitted,totakemeasurestobringtheoffenderto justice.
Where the investigative obligation under Article2oftheEuropeanConventiononHumanRights(ECHR) applies, it requires that the authorities must act of their own motion and not wait for the matter to be referred. When an investigation is taken forward it must be independent, effective and reasonably prompt. There must also be sufficient public scrutiny of the investigation and the next of kin of the deceased must be involved in the investigation to the appropriate extent.
TheChiefConstablehasstatedclearly thatthe PSNIsupportstheestablishmentofthe Historical Investigations Unit(HIU)undertheauspicesoftheStormontHouseAgreement (SHA).TheChiefConstablerecogniseshoweverthathehasstatutoryobligations for the legacy caseloaduntilsuchtimethattheHIUbecomesoperational.These obligationsare the basisfor theworkof the LegacyInvestigationBranch (LIB).
DueregardwillbegiventotheConventionvaluestestassetoutbytheGrandChamberof theEuropean CourtofHumanRights in Janowiec v Russia.
HowwilltheLegacyInvestigationBranchsequencecases?
LegacyInvestigationBranchwillalignitsworktocontributetothecommitmentsoftheChief
Constable tokeeppeople safeand bringoffenders tojustice.
Therearefour aspects toLegacyInvestigation Branch’scasesequencingmodel:
1. Contemporarypersonsofinterest
2. Forensicpotential
3. Criminal justice status
4. Caseprogression
ContemporaryPersons ofInterest
Intermsof‘keepingpeoplesafe’,it followsthatthoseindividualsthatareconsideredby the policeservicetoposeapotentialthreattocitizen’ssafety todayshouldplay aroleinthe sequencing oflegacycases.
Forlegacy policing,thiswillmeanidentifyingthose historicalcaseswhich feature contemporarypersonsof interest (CPOI) 1aspotential suspects.
TheLegacy InvestigationBranchwillconductasix-monthly review oftheservice’sCPOI listing2toestablishifanychangesoradditionshaveoccurred. Thiswillsafeguardthe relevanceofthebranch’scasesequencingwiththeservice’spositiononcontemporary threat.
Forensic Potential
Withregards to‘bringingoffenders tojustice’,theACPOguidelinesoncoldcasereview outlinetheidentification offorensicpotentialas criticalto unresolvedcases3.This makes forensic findingsa majordriverinthe fieldoflegacypolicing.Itfollowsthat forensicevidence shouldform anaspect ofcasesequencing.
Forlegacypolicing,thiswillmeantheidentificationofthosehistoricalcases,whichpresent aninitial basisforaninference offorensicpotential.
TheLegacyInvestigationBranchwillconductanannualreviewofthemethodology for derivingpreliminaryforensicpotential. Thiswillensurethatanyinterimdevelopmentsin forensictechnologyare includedin theprocessof casesequencing.
1Theterm‘ContemporaryPersonsofInterest’(CPOI)isdefinedasanypersonofinterestto thePSNIinconnectionwithany seriouscrimeoffencesince10th April1998. Thiswillincludeongoingassessmentofthe‘wanted’statusofpersonsbeing investigatedunderOperationRedfield.SeriouscrimeisdefinedinRIPA2000,S.81(2)and(3), as“references to crime that satisfies…(a)that theoffenceoroneoftheoffencesthatisor wouldbeconstitutedbythe conductisanoffence for whicha personwhohasattainedtheageoftwenty-one…andhasnopreviousconvictionscouldreasonablybeexpectedtobe sentencedtoimprisonmentforatermofthreeyearsormore; (b)thattheconductinvolvestheuseofviolence,resultsin substantialfinancial gainor is conductby alargenumber ofpersons inpursuitofacommonpurpose.”
2 Toconductthisreview,theLegacyInvestigationBranchwillrequireaconsolidatedlistofCPOIsfrom relevantPSNI
departments onasix-monthly basis.
3ACPO Murder InvestigationManual,para4.3.2
Criminal JusticeStatus
Thedefinitionoftheterm‘unsolved’hasarangeofdifferentmeaningsforthestakeholders oflegacy review. Forexample,acasewhereanindividualhasbeenprosecutedin connectionwithamurderbutforalesseroffencesuchaspossessionofarticleslikelytobe ofuseinterrorismwillnotbeconsideredas‘solved’forthefamilybutmayberecordedas
‘detected’for Home Office counting rules.
Itisrecognisedthatthereareawiderangeofscenariostoconsider.Howeverwhen considering theability totakeexecutiveaction,thosecaseswhereallprimesuspectswere chargedwithandconvictedoftheprimaryoffencedonotofferthesamepotentialto contribute to publicprotectionas those cases wherenopersonwaseverchargedand or convicted.Forthisreason,thecase’scriminaljusticestatuswillplayapartinsequencing
forLegacyInvestigation Branch.
Thiswillmeanidentifyingthosehistoricalcaseswherenoindividualhasbeenchargedand orconvictedof theprimaryoffence4.
Adecisiontonarrowthe focustounsolvedcaseshasthebenefitofreinforcingthecriminal justice motivationofthebranchandbringingto the forefrontthosecaseswherenoindividual hasbeenbrought tojusticeforanyelementof theincident.
TheLegacyInvestigationBranch willconduct anannualreviewofthecasesfallingoutsideof thedefinitionofunsolvedtoensure thatthere arenooverridingconsiderationsorscenarios that have been overlooked whichmaymerit inclusion.
Case Progression
ThecasesthatfellwithinthecaseloadoftheHistoricalEnquiriesTeam (HET),theSerious CrimeReview Team(SCRT),theRetrospectiveMurderInvestigationTeam(ReMIT)and the investigation oftheeventsofBloodySundayareatvarious stages ofcompletion.These can bedivided into two categories:
1.Advanced Cases– reviews thatarenearingcompletion where exploratoryworkhas been either ruled outorproposedorinvestigationswhere the case hasbeen formally allocatedtoaninvestigationteamandaTermsofReferenceandan Investigation Strategyhave been agreed.
2.Un-advancedCases–casesthatsincetheconclusionoftheoriginalinvestigations have either
(a) neverbeenopenedforrevieworinvestigation or
(b)beenopenedbuthavenotprogressedtoastagewhereexploratorywork hasbeenconsidered.
Theidentificationof‘un-advancedcases’presentsthe opportunity torecognisecurrently undiscoveredpotential.Inaddition,giventheprogressthathasbeenmadebyformer branches responsibleforreview (theHETandtheSCRTcombinedhavecompletedthe review ofintheregion of2000cases),un-advancedcaseswilllargelybethoseincidents which occurredinthelate 1980s, the1990s and in theearly2000s.
A benefitofaddressing these casesin advanceofothersis the alignmentwith theChief Constable’skey priorityofmanagingcontemporary threats topublicsafety.Itwouldseema reasonableassumption (arguableonthe groundsofoffenderhierarchiesandseverityof modusoperandi)thatthoseindividualsbelievedresponsibleforcasesmostrecently committedmaybemore likelytoposeathreattoday.Inthisway,thisaspectofsequencing will bealigned with CPOI element of themodel.
TheLegacy InvestigationBranchwillconductanannualreview oftheoperationalimpactof thedefinitionof‘advanced’and‘un-advanced’anditsusein thecasesequencing model to ensurethat it maximises branch efficiency.
Thecasesequencingmodelinitsentiretyalongsidesupportingpolicystatementsand operatingprocedureswillbesubjecttoanannual review toensureitremainsfitforpurpose and contributestomeeting theChiefConstable’sstatutoryobligations.
AsoutlinedintheLegacy InvestigationBranch,Terms ofReference,‘theAssistantChief Constablereservestherighttoreferanyhistoricalcase5tobranch.Each‘new’6referral… willbesubjectto theLegacyInvestigationBranch’s‘CaseSequencing’ policy.Anydeviation fromthispolicywill requiretheAssistantChief Constable’sapprovalinrecognitionof the potentialimpact ontheequalityof approachtocasesequencingandtheservice’s Section75
[equality] obligations.’
4There isa challenge inidentifying these casesbefore conducting a review.Thefront-loading ofthe HEAD database creates thepotentialforthispieceofworktobecompleted. Itshouldbenotedthatthisprojectinvolveshighvolumesofcomplex data fromarangeofdisparateandoftenhistoricalsources. Whilethisinformationoffersagoodstartingpointforabroad assessment,thefinerdetails mayremainunseenuntilareview iscommenced.Anawarenessofthelimitationswillensurethe rightlevelofdependency andanyfollow-upresearch canbeundertakeningood time.
5The LegacyInvestigations Branchdefines an‘historicalcase’ as any casewhichoccurredpriorto01/03/2004.
6Theterm‘new’refers tothosecaseswhichmaybereferredby the AssistantChiefConstabletoLIB whichfalloutside of the
currently statedremitabove (LIBTOR pages3and4).
Thefirsttwoaspects;contemporarypersonsofinterestandforensicpotentialwillrepresent
Phase 1ofthecasesequencing model.Figure1 showsPhase1 ofLegacyInvestigation
Branch’scasesequencingmodel.
Figure1
LIBSequencingModel
Phase 1
Doesacontemporaryperson of interest(CPOI) featurein
the case?
Yes No
Hasforensicpotential
beenidentified?
Hasforensicpotential
beenidentified?
Yes No Yes No
Group1 Group2 Group3 Group4
Thosecases wherea CPOI featuresand forensicpotential has been identified.
Thosecases wherea CPOI featuresand noforensicpotential
has been identified.
Thosecases wherea CPOIdoesnot feature butforensic potentialhas been
identified.
Thosecases wherea CPOIdoesnot feature and no
forensicpotential has
beenidentified.
Havingcompletedthefirstphase,fourgroupswillemergeasdetailedinfigure1. Atthis point,theLegacy InvestigationBranchcanconductPhase 2ofthe sequencingmodelwhich involvesconsiderationofthecriminal justicestatusand theprogressofthecase foreachof thefourgroupsshown infigure 1.
Figure 2showsPhase2oftheLegacyInvestigationBranch’ssequencingmodel.
Figure2
Group1
Group2
Group3
Group4
LIBSequencingModel
Phase 2
Doesthecasefall into LIB’s
categoryof ‘unsolved’?
Yes No
Is thecase advanced? Is thecase advanced?
No
UNADVANCED
Yes No
UNADVANCED
Yes
GroupA GroupB GroupC GroupD
LIB categorised unsolvedandun- advanced.
LIB categorised unsolvedand advanced.
LIB categorised not unsolvedandun- advanced.
LIB categorised not unsolvedand advanced.
Theoutcomeofphase1and2willultimatelyleavetheLegacyInvestigationBranchwitha workload that fitswithin 16sectors.Figure3providesanoutlineofthesectors.
Figure3
1 / 2 / 3 / 4A / CPOIfeatures,forensic potentialidentified,LIB categorisedunsolved andun-advanced. / CPOIfeatures,no forensicpotential,LIB categorisedunsolved andun-advanced. / CPOIdoesnotfeature
butforensicpotential hasbeenidentified.LIB categorisedunsolved andun-advanced. / CPOIdoesnotfeature
andnoforensic potential.LIB categorisedunsolved andun-advanced.
B / CPOIfeatures,forensic potentialidentified,LIB categorisedunsolved andadvanced. / CPOIfeatures,no forensicpotential,LIB categorisedunsolved andadvanced. / CPOIdoesnotfeature
butforensicpotential hasbeenidentified.LIB categorisedunsolved andadvanced. / CPOIdoesnotfeature
andnoforensic potential.LIB categorisedunsolved andadvanced.
C / CPOIfeatures,forensic potentialidentified,LIB categorisednot unsolvedandun- advanced. / CPOIfeatures,no forensicpotential,LIB categorisednot unsolvedandun- advanced. / CPOIdoesnotfeature
butforensicpotential hasbeenidentified.LIB categorisednot unsolvedandun- advanced. / CPOIdoesnotfeature
andnoforensic potential.LIB categorisednot unsolvedandun- advanced.
D / CPOIfeatures,forensic potentialidentified,LIB categorisednot unsolvedand
advanced. / CPOIfeatures,no forensicpotential,LIB categorisednot unsolvedand advanced. / CPOIdoesnotfeature
butforensicpotential. LIBcategorisednot unsolvedand advanced. / CPOIdoesnotfeature
andnoforensic potential.LIB categorisednot unsolvedand advanced.
FinalConsiderationsforSequencing
AgeofCase
Aspreviously addressedinthisreport(pg.5),theoffenderswhocommittedcrimes in relatively morerecent timesmay bemorelikely topresentacontemporary risktopublic safety thanthose committedinthe1970sand1980s.
Forthisreason,whenpresentedwiththefinal groupings,ifany furtherdecisionisrequired regardingwhichcaseto sequence,thecriteria thatwill play akey rolewillbetheageof the case.Onthisbasis,themostrecentlyoccurringcasesinthegroupingwillbeundertaken first,exceptinacasewheretheHeadofLIBhasacceptedtherationale foravariation on humanitariangrounds.
FamilyPreference
TheStormontHouseAgreementoutlinesanagreedmechanismfordealingwiththepast. Anintegralcomponentistheestablishmentofthe HistoricalInvestigationsUnit(HIU);‘anew independentbody totake forwardinvestigations intooutstandingTroublesrelateddeaths’7. Thebody willtake forwardoutstandingcases from theHistoricalEnquiriesTeam (HET) processandthelegacy workofthePoliceOmbudsman forNorthernIreland(PONI)8.At this stage, political consensus has not been reached regarding the establishment of theHIU.
AllhistoricalcaseswithinLIB’scurrent remitwillbesubject tothecasesequencingmodelin recognitionoftheChiefConstable’songoingstatutoryobligations.Thosecasesthatwere theresponsibilityoftheHETandwhicharecertifiedas‘incomplete’willtransfertotheHIU onitsestablishment.
Intheinterim,thereispotentialforsomeHETcasestofallintoGroups1,2or3(Fig.3), whereaCPOIfeaturesandorforensicpotentialhasbeenidentified.LIBwillconducta review,and ifapplicable, aninvestigationinthesecases.
However, for those cases fallingintoGroup4 (Fig.3),whereneithera CPOI features,nor forensicpotentialhasbeenidentified;theLIB willseektheviewsoffamily membersto ascertaintheirpreferenceinrespectofwhichbody progresses thecase.Thiswillbeafactor inwhethertheLIBdevotesresource to thatcase orwhethertheworkis tobedevelopedby HIU.
OperationalImpact
Each of thesegrouplevelsislikelytoplaceadiffering degreeof demandontactical operations.LegacyInvestigationBranchcaseloadmaytherefore,inordertomaximise branchefficiency,requireablendofcasesacrossreview andinvestigationteamsatanyone time.
Thatistosay,ifacase hasbeenopenedbutislikely tobeinactive fora periodwhilst,for example, forensicresultsareawaited,HeadofBranchmay authoriseworktobeundertaken onacasewhichcomeslaterinthemodel.Ifthisisalesscomplexcase,itmaybe completedfirst.
CorporateRisk
Eachofthesegroupingsalsocarriesacorporateriskfactor.Theriskfactorsaround applicationoftheCase SequencingModelwillbesubjecttoAnnual Reviewby LIBand reportedontotheLegacy DeliveryGroup.
7StormontHouseAgreement,para30,pg6
8StormontHouseAgreement,para30,pg6