Brandeis University
Spring 2016
POL143A: Israel, Iran, the Bomb and Beyond: Nuclear Proliferation in the Middle East
Prof. Shai Feldman
Class time: Mondays 2 pm-4:50 pm
Location: Schwartz 103
Contact information for Prof. Feldman.
Office: Crown Center for Middle East Studies
2nd floor, Lemberg Hall
Office Hours: Mondays 12:00 pm-1:00 pm and by appointment
Email:
Course Description:
Addresses one of the most pressing international issues - the nuclearization of Iran. It focuses on Iran's nuclear ambitions, beginning with the Shah of Iran, the motivations behind the acceleration of its nuclear efforts in recent decades, the reactions of Israel, the U.S., Arab states and the international community to Iran's efforts, the implications of Iranian nuclear weapons for regional and international security, and the dynamics of the negotiations between the P5+1 and Iran which led to the recent Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) -- the agreement halting Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons and lifting international sanctions against it.
Enrollment in this class will be limited to 30, with preference to juniors, seniors, and graduate students.
Course Requirements
All students are required to attend every class, barring illness, and to complete the assigned readings listed below in advance of each class. Students will be called upon to initiate discussion of the readings in class. This means that everyone must come to class prepared to discuss the readings. Well-informed classroom discussion is required of each student. It is highly recommended that students annotate personal copies of, or make notes from the readings.
The writing requirements listed below are intended to encourage students to approach reading materials critically, to foster improved research and writing skills, and to serve as a basis for contributing to class discussion. Students are expected to devote careful attention to the technical quality of their written work, as well as its substance.
Students are expected to be honest in all academic work. All written work for this course must include appropriate citation of the sources used. See section 56c (“Avoid Plagiarism”) of the Concise English Handbook for guidance. The university policy on academic honesty is distributed annually as section 5 of the Rights and Responsibilities handbook. Instances of alleged dishonesty will be forwarded to the Office of Campus Life for possible referral to the Student Judicial System. Potential sanctions include failure in the course and suspension from the university. If you have any questions about this, please ask.
Four-Credit Course (with three hours of class-time per week)
Success in this 4 credit hour course is based on the expectation that students will spend a minimum of 9 hours of study time per week in preparation for class (readings, papers, discussion sections, preparation for exams, etc.).
Individual Written Assignments
All written assignments must be typewritten, double-spaced in 14-point font (this syllabus is in 12-point), and submitted electronically via email to as a Microsoft Word attachment (if you are not using Word, you may format your file in Rich Text Format [RTF]). Please use “Compatibility Mode” in Word to ensure that it can be read on any computer with Microsoft Office and not just those with the most recent version.
Midterm paper
12 pages. Topic to be distributed
Final paper
15 pages. Topic to be distributed
If you are a student with a documented disability on record at Brandeis University and wish to have a reasonable accommodation made for you in this class, please see Prof. Feldman about this.
Evaluation
Students will be evaluated on the basis of the two written assigned essays – 35 % for the midterm paper and50 % for the final paper – and on class participation (15%). Students enjoy complete academic freedom in the classroom, within the limits defined by the standards of mutual respect. Attendance is required.
Readings
Only the reading assignments that students are required to read before each class are the ones under the title of the topic of the class. The list of additional, optional reading is provided to serve students who might wish to increase their knowledge on the specific topic, and help them should they choose to address these topics in their midterm or final paper.
1)Introduction (Jan. 20)
Introduction to the class; Beginning at the end: The JCPOA
Gary Samore, “Elements of the Iran Nuclear Deal,” Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, 2015
Kamram Matin, “The Saudi-Iranian Crisis Reveals a Deep Power Struggle in Tehran, The Conversation, January 7, 2016
George Friedman, “Iran and Saudi Arabia: Posturing and Reality,” Geopolitical Futures, January 4, 2016
Michael Wilner, “More Americans Concerned with Iran’s Nuclear Program than a Year Ago,” Jerusalem PostDecember 20, 2015
2)Building a Bomb and Preventing Nuclear Proliferation: International Instruments (Jan. 25)
The uranium enrichment route, the plutonium reprocessing route, and weapon\warhead design; The NPT, verification and monitoring (including the Special Protocols), NWFZ, “Anytime, any place” versus “managed access”; the Nuclear Suppliers Group, FMCT
Nuclear 101: How Nuclear Bombs Work Parts 1&2 (Matthew Bunn, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs):
(part 1)
(part 1 slides)
(part 2)
(part 2 slides)
Text of the NPT:
Verification and monitoring: The Special Protocols
framework/additional-protocol
Berhanykun Andemicael and John Mathiason, Eliminating Weapons of Mass Destruction: Prospects for Effective International Verification, Palgrave Macmillen, 2005, part II (‘Verification Mechanisms’) [Online access at:
Emily B. Landau, “Decade of Diplomacy: Confronting Iran and North Korea and the Future of Nuclear Nonproliferation,” INSS Memorandum, ch. 1 (p. 21-26)
Nuclear Weapons Free Zones:
Nabil Fahmy and Patricia Lewis, “Possible elements of a NWFZ in the Middle East,” UNDIR Disarmament Forum, 2011(
Recommended:
AtomicArchives.com:
3)The DNA of the Islamic Republic (Feb. 1)
The Iranian Revolution, post-revolution Iran, Iran’s strategic culture, ideology, rationality and deterrence
Maryam Panah, The Islamic Republic and the World: Global Dimensions of the Iranian Revolutions, Pluto Press 2007, ch. 2
Mohsen Milani, The Making of Iran’s Islamic Revolution: From Monarchy to Islamic Republic, ch. 9 & 10
Shmuel Bar, “Iranian Defense Doctrine and Decision Making,” The Interdisciplinary Center in Herzeliya, 2004
Shumel Bar, “Iran: Cultural Values, Self Images, and Negotiation Behavior,” The Interdisciplinary Center in Herzeliya, 2004
Michael Connell, “Iran’s Military Doctrine,” The Iran Primer
Daniel Byman, Shahram Chubin, Anoushiravan Ehteshami, and Jerrold Green, “Iran's Security Policy In the Post-Revolutionary Era,” RAND Corporation, 2001, ch. 2 (“Fundamental Sources of Iranian Foreign and Security Policies”)
Mahmood Sariolghalam, “Sources of Continuity in Iran’s Foreign Policy,” in Gulf Politics and Economics in a Changing World, Michael Hudson and Mimi Kirk eds., World Scientific Publishing Company, 2014
Abbas William Samii, “The Iranian Nuclear Issue and Informal Networks,” Naval War College Review
4)Iran’s Threat Perceptions (Feb. 8)
The legacy of U.S. overthrow of Mossadegh; The Iraq-Iran War and Iraq’s use of CW: The legacy of U.S. and Arab support of Saddam; U.S. military presence in the Gulf and the Indian Ocean; U.S.’s “Axis of Evil” and the threat of regime change; Perceptions of Israel: Dimona, Ballistic Missiles, and the “Begin Doctrine” – Missiles;
Abrahamian, Ervand. “The 1953 Coup in Iran.”Science & Society 65.2 (2001): 182–215.
Mark Gasiorowski, “U.S. Foreign Policy Towards Iran During the Mussadiq Era,” in The Middle East and the United States, David Lesch ed., Westview Press, 1996 (p. 51-63)
Fariborz Mokhtari. “No One Will Scratch My Back: Iranian Security Perceptions in Historical Context.”Middle East Journal 59.2 (2005): 209–229.
Sharam Chubin, Iran’s National Security Policy, p. 17-28
Robert Jervis, “The U.S. and Iran: Perceptions and Policy Traps,” in U.S.-Iran Misperceptions: A Dialogue eds., Abbas Maleki and John Tirman, Bloomsbury 2014
Dalia Dassa Kaye, Alireza Nader, and Parisa Roshan, “Israel and Iran: A Dangerous Rivalry,” The RAND Corporation, 2011 p. 55-77
5)Iran’s nuclear efforts: a concise history (Feb. 22)
Nuclear efforts under the Shah, post-revolution efforts, the nuclear facilities: Busher, Natanz, Arak, Parchin
Patrikarakos, Nuclear Iran: The Birth of an Atomic Nation,I.B. Tauris, 2012, ch. 4 [Online access:
Greg Bruno, “Iran’s Nuclear Program,” CFR
“Iran’s Key Nuclear Sites,” BBC News, July 14, 2015
The 2007 NIE Report
Philip Gordon, “The Iranian Nuclear Program After the National Intelligence Estimate,” Brookings, 2008 (
Seyed Hossein Mousavian, The Iranian Nuclear Crisis: A Memoir, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2012, ch.1[Online access:
Shahram Chubin, Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2006, ch. 4
Recommended:
Patrikarakos, Nuclear Iran: The Birth of an Atomic Nation, I.B. Tauris, 2012, ch. 3
Timeline of the Nuclear Crisis:
6)U.S. Defense Doctrines for the Middle East (Feb. 29)
The Baghdad Pact, the Nixon Doctrine, the Carter Doctrine, Reagan and Iran-Contra, Clinton’s Dual Containment and conditions for engagement; Bush 43 and the “axis of evil”; Obama and the return of diplomacy.
Michael J. Cohen, Strategy and Politics in the Middle East, 1954-1960, Frank Cass, 2005, pp. 91-95
Stephen McGlinchey, U.S. Arms Policies Towards the Shah’s Iran,Routledge, 2014, ch. 4. [Online access:
Jimmy Carter, State of the Union Address, Jan, 23, 1980:
Martin Indyk, “The Clinton Administration's Approach to the Middle East,” Soref Symposium 1993
Alex Edwards, Dual Containment Policy in the Persian Gulf: The USA, Iran, and Iraq 1991-2000, Palgrave Macmillen 2014, ch. 2 and especially pp. 65-75 in ch. 4)
Madeline Albright’s speech to the Asia Society in 2000:
Madeline Albright, Madam Secretary, p. 319-326
2002 National Security Strategy (esp. p. 13-17):
Jervis, Robert. “Understanding the Bush Doctrine.”Political Science Quarterly 118.3 (2003): 365–388.
Lionel Beehner and Greg Bruno, “Iran’s Involvement in Iraq,” CFR:
2010 National Security Strategy:
7)The U.S. and Iran’s Nuclear Efforts(Mar. 7)
U.S. nuclear nonproliferation policy in the ME; The Atoms for Peace Program; The U.S. and Israel’s Nuclear Program; The Clinton era: The approach to the EU’s “Critical Dialogue” with Iran; Bush 43 and the rejection of Iran’s 2003 “grand bargain” offer; America’s “retired red lines” and Obama’s “all options are on the table;” Keeping Israel at Bay: Preventing an Israeli Attack.
Shai Feldman, Nuclear Weapons and Arms Control in the Middle East, ch. 6.
Arianna Rowberry, “Sixty Years of “Atoms for Peace” and Iran’s Nuclear Program,” Brookings
U.S. Overture to Iran in 1999Broke Down Over Terrorism Allegations,” National Security Archive, 2010
Condoleezza Rice, No Higher Honor,Crown Publishers, 2011, p. 148-151
George W. Bush, Decision Points, Broadway, 2010, p. 415-420
Glenn Kessler, “In 2003, U.S. Spurned Iran’s Offer of Dialogue,” The Washington Post, June 18, 2006
Gareth Porter, “Neocons Blocked 2003 Talks with Iran,” Antiwar.com, March 29, 2006
Martin Indyk, Kenneth Lieberthal, and Michael O’Hanlon, Bending History: Barack Obama’s Foreign Policy, Brookings Institution Press, 2012, p. 187-208
Obama’s State of the Union 2012:
Barack Obama’s 2008 election campaign statements
Barack Obama’s 2009 Nobel Prize speech
Thomas Freidman, “Iran and the Obama Doctrine,” April 2015
Obama interview with Jeffrey Goldberg:
Graham T. Allison and Shai Feldman, “Why Netanyahu Backed Down,” New York Times, Oct. 12, 2012 (
Recommended:
Geoffrey Kemp, “The Reagan Administration,” Iran Primer (
Gary Sick, “The Carter Administration,” Iran Primer
Bruce Riedel, “The Clinton Administration,” The Iran Primer
8)The Political-Economy of the Efforts to Limit Iran’s Nuclear Program (Mar. 14)
The costs of the program; economic sanctions: UN, U.S., EU,
SWIFT; the Iranian economy: Human rights-related and
terrorism-rights related sanctions, corruption and mismanagement, unemployment and the role of over-education; the effects of the oil market.
Gary Samore, “Sanctions Against Iran: A Guide to Targets, Terms and Timetables,” The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, June 2015
“How Sanctions Effect Iran’s Economy,” interview with Dr. Hassan Hakimian (London ME Institute Director), CFR, 2012:
Thomas Erdbrink, “Iran’s Aging Airliner Fleet Seen as Faltering Under U.S. Sanctions,” New York Times, July 13, 2012
Kevan Harris, “The Rise of the Subcontractor State: Politics of Pseudo-Privatization in the Islamic Republic of Iran,” International Journal of Middle East Studies, no. 45, 2013, p. 45-70
Nader Habibi, “The Economic Legacy of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad,” Middle East Brief # 74:
Nader Habibi, “Iran’s Overeducation Crisis: Causes and Ramifications,”Middle East Brief #89:
Kevan Harris, “Iran’s Political Economy Under and After Sanctions,” The Washington Post -
9)Iranian Domestic Politics, its Internal Nuclear Debate and its Nuclear Negotiations strategy (Mar. 21)
The Khatami Presidency, the Ahmadinejad Presidency
Chen Kane “Nuclear Decision-making in Iran: A Rare Glimpse,”Middle East Brief # 5:
Seyed Hossein Mousavian, The Iranian Nuclear Crisis: A Memoir, ch. 7 [online access:
Shahram Chubin, “Whither Iran? Reform, Domestic Politics, and National Security,” Adelphi Paper 342, The International Institute for Strategic Studies, 2002. Ch.1, 2, 4
Ray Takeyh, Guardians of the Revolution, Oxford University Press, 2009, ch. 10 & 11
Farideh Farhi, “What to do about U.S. Sanctions and Israeli Threats: Iran’s Muted Nuclear Debate,”Middle East Brief # 61
Naghmeh Sohrabi, “Conservatives, Neoconservatives and Reformists: Iran after the Electon of Mahmud Ahmadinejad,” Middle East Brief # 4
Naghmeh Sohrabi, “The Power Struggle in Iran: A Centrist Comeback?” Middle East Brief # 53
Naghmeh Sohrabi, “Reading the Tea Leaves: Iranian Domestic Politics and the Elections of 2013.” Middle East Brief # 65
Sayedamir Hossein Mahdavi, “`Worried’ or `Valiant’? The Dialectic Between Iran’s Nuclear Negotiations and Domestic Politics,” Middle East Brief# 81
Sayedamir Hossein Mahdavi, “A Comprehensive Nuclear Deal with Iran: Not Mission Impossible,” Middle East Brief# 85
10)The Consequences of a Nuclearized Iran (Apr. 4)
What happens if Iran succeeds in its efforts to obtain a nuclear capability? What kind of nuclear capabilities will it go for – will it opt for nuclear “hedging” or will it weaponize? What would be the consequences of these alternative postures: Will they lead to a regional nuclear arms race\nuclear cascade? Would America’s allies opt for independent capabilities or would they instead rely on a U.S. umbrella?
Ariel Levite, “Never Say Never Again: Nuclear Reversal Revisited”, International Security, Vol. 27, No. 3 (Winter 2002/03), pp. 59–88
Wyn Bowen & Matthew Moran, “Iran's Nuclear
Programme: A Case Study in Hedging?,”Contemporary Security Policy, 2014, March 2014
Alireza Nader, “Iran After the Bomb: How would a Nuclear-Armed Tehran Behave?,” The RAND Corporation, 2013
Colin H. Kahl, Raj Pattani, and Jacob Stokes, “If All Else Fails: The Challenges of Containing a Nuclear-Armed Iran,” Center for New American Security, 2013
Hilary Clinton on a U.S. nuclear umbrella
Nawaf Obaid, “Actually, Saudi Arabia Could Get a Nuclear Weapon,” CNN, June 19, 2015
11)Israel’s counter-proliferation policy (Apr. 11)
The Begin Doctrine; Diplomacy: placing the issue on the global agenda – intelligence sharing and the threat of military action; prevention: interdicting acquisition, eliminating scientists, and non-lethal attacks on facilities: Stuxnet; active and passive defense, and deterrence.
Shai Feldman, "The Bombing of Osiraq—Revisited," International Security (Autumn 1982)
Joshua Kirschenbaum, “Operation Opera: Limited Success,” Journal of Strategic Studies, Vol. 3, No. 4, 2010
Uzi Rubin, “Missile Defense and Israel Deterrence against a Nuclear Iran,” in Israel and a Nuclear Iran: Implications for Arms Control, Deterrence, and Defense, INSS Memorandum No. 94, July 2008
David Sanger, Confront and Conceal: Obama's Secret Wars and Surprising Use of American Power, Broadway Books, 2013, ch. 8
Holger Stark, “Israel’s Miracle Weapon: Stuxnet Virus Opens New Era of Cyber War,” Der Spiegel, August 8, 2011
Feldman, Nuclear Weapons and Arms Control, ch. 3
12)The Evolution of Israel’s Positions (Apr. 18)
On revolutionary Iran; Iran-Contra; Israel and the Shah’s nuclear ambitions; Sharon: It is an international issue, a regional issue -- not an Israeli issue; Olmert: The abortion of Syria’s nuclear program; Netanyahu and the long shadow of the Holocaust; Barak’s support for kinetic prevention; The opponents of an attack: Dagan, Boggie, Halevi; Retired Israeli “Red Lines”.
Steve Simon, “Iran and Israel,” Iran Primer (overview):
David Menasheri, “Iran, Israel, and the Middle East Conflict,” Israel Affairs 12:1, 107-122
Dalia Dassa Kaye, Alireza Nader, and Parisa Roshan, “Israel and Iran: A Dangerous Rivalry,” The RAND Corporation, 2011 ch. 2
Amos Gilad talk on the Iranian threat at INSS
Yaacov Amidror, “The Vienna Accord Only Postpones Confrontation with Iran,” Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, August 5, 2015
Amir Oren, “The Truth About Israel, Iran, and the 1980s U.S. Arms Deal,” Haaretz, 2010
Owen Alterman, “Netanyahu and the Iranian Threat,” The Cairo Review of Global Affairs, October 11, 2015
Shmuel Even, “The Israeli Strategy Against the Iranian Nuclear Project,” Strategic Assessment, Vol. 3, No. 4, 2014
Shlomo Brom, Shai Feldman, and Shimon Stein “What to do about Nuclearizing Iran? An Israeli Debate,” Middle East Brief# 59, February 2012.
13)The Road to the JCPOA and its Aftermath (May 2)
The TRR Negotiations: The role of Turkey and Brazil and U.S. responses; the Secret Negotiations in Oman and the JPOA; The JCPOA and its aftermath; Israeli reactions to the JCPOA; IDF DMI and CoS and the Israeli Atomic Energy Commission.
Nader Entessar and Kaveh Afrasiabi, Iran Nuclear Negotiations: Accord and Détente since the Geneva Agreement of 2013, Rowman & Littlefield, 2015, p. 9-57
Henry Kissinger and George Schultz, “The Iran Deal and its Consequences,” The Wall Street Journal, April 7, 2015
James A. Baker III, “The Nuclear Deal with Iran Needs Work- Lots of It,” The Wall Street Journal, April 16, 2015
Landau, Decade of Diplomacy, ch. 2, p. 33-63
Shai Feldman, “Bibi’s Speech: A More Sober Analysis,” The National Interest, March 7, 2015
Shai Feldman and Ariel E. Levite, “Seven Realities That Made an Iran Deal Almost Inevitable,” The National Interest, July 21, 2015
Emily B. Landau and Shimon Stein, “Israel and the Iran Nuclear Deal: ‘Chronicle of a Failure Foretold’?” INSS Insight No. 735, August 2015