MIGRATION
0. Migration is the most complicated of the major demographic events
A. It is complicated to define
B. It is complicated to measure
1. Often officially measured by non-statistical agencies
a. No longer in the U.S.; Office of Immigration Statistics is in the Office of Policy within Homeland Security in the U.S., separate from policy enforcement groups like the Border Patrol and Customs
C. Migration policy is widely varied and is often contentious
I. One move is two events: in-migration and out-migration
A. in-migration = immigration (especially when international)
B. out-migration = emigration (especially when international)
C. Place you left is the donor location or origin or source
D. Place you are going to is the destination or target
II. Definitions related to types of moves and movers
A. Mobility – spatial movement of people
1. Includes commuting to work and travel as well as changes of residence
B. Migration / move – any permanent change of residence
C. Mover – someone who has changed residence
D. Stayer – someone who has not changed residence
E. Migrant – a mover whose move crosses an important boundary
1. For the U.S. Census Bureau, someone who changes counties
F. In-migrant / immigrant – someone who has moved to a particular location
G. Out-migrant / emigrant – someone who has moved from a particular location
H. Net migration = # in-migrants - # out-migrants
1. It turns out to be easier to measure net migration than both in-migration and out-migration
a. For instance, it is easier to know that a dorm has more students this year than last year than to know how many new people moved into the dorm and how many people moved out
I. Total / gross migration = # in-migrants + # out-migrants
1. Sociologically interesting for its implications for anomie
J. Return migration – a move from what had been a destination back to the original origin
K. International migration – a move from one country to another
L. Internal migration – a move within a country
1. Policy makers tend to look at international and internal migration differently
a. So do migrants
2. Distinction between internal and international migration very important to demographers, so much so that it tends to organize research within the field
III. Flows vs stocks
A. Migration flow refers to in- and out-migrations within a time period, usually a year
B. Migration stock refers to the total number of people currently in a place who got there by migrating
EXAMPLE: flow for a university equals the number of new students plus the numbers of graduates and students who leave school during a year. Stock refers to the number of students, however long they have been there
NOTE: this is similar to morbidity rates of incidence (new cases of a disease in a year, like flows in) and prevalence (number with a disease in a year regardless of when they got the disease, like stocks).
This is also like income (flow) versus wealth (stock)
NOTE: from the point of view of both destination and origin societies, flows and stocks have different implications. Newbies are usually younger, less culturally competent (e.g., with language). Stock may age, become citizens, become political forces.
Flow can yield change by changing the stock
IV. Measures
A. Counts
1. Counting is tricky
a. Complexity of the event makes things difficult
(1) Event is not as straightforward as birth or death
b. Many people have incentive to hide their migration event (flow) and status (stock)
c. Different information tends to be available about legal as opposed to non-legal migrants
(1) It’s no accident that another term for non-legal migrant is “undocumented”
d. Often governments care little about out-migrants and therefore collect and publish little about them
2. Ways to count or estimate flow
a. Have people at the border keep track
(1). Obviously works only for legals
b. On the basis of annual stock measures estimate flow
c. Use the estimating equation, total population counts, and counts of births and deaths
Net mig = change – net natural increase
d. Life table methods can be used to estimate the age sex structure of the migrants
e. Surveys (ask migrants when they migrated)
3. Ways to count or estimate stock
a. Census (ask the right questions)
b. Surveys
FACTOID: countries with greatest raw in-migration and out-migration
Leading Net Receivers of Immigrants, 2000-2005
Net migration
1 United States 1,299,0006 Germany200,000
2 Spain569,0007 United Kingdom 190,000
3 Italy225,0008 Russian Federation 183,000
4 Afghanistan222,0009 France 144,000
5 Canada208,00010 Australia 119,000
Leading Net Donors of Emigrants, 2000-2005
Net migration (000s)
1 Mexico -797,000 6. Indonesia -200,000
2 China -380,0007. Philippines-180,000
3 India -270,0008. Morocco -110,000
4 Iran -250,0009. Sudan -106,000
5 Pakistan-248,00010. Egypt-105
Source: p. 290 in Weeks, J. 2008. Population.10th ed. Belmont, CA: Thomson.
4. Counts are important for practical purposes
a. They tell the magnitude of the challenge faced by local areas, especially governments
b. The difference between net and in-migration is crucial
(1). Net gives a complete picture of growth from migration;
In does not
B. Crude Rates of Flow
1. Crude Net-migration Rate
# in-migrants - # out-migrants
= ────────────────── * 1000
midyear population
2. Crude In-migration Rate
# in-migrants
= ────────────────── * 1000
midyear population
3. Crude Out-migration Rate
# out-migrants
= ────────────────── * 1000
midyear population
4. Total migration / Gross migration / Migration Turnover Rate
# in-migrants + # out-migrants
= ────────────────── * 1000
midyear population
a. Total migration gives, essentially, the fraction of the population that was involved in migration
C. Specific (i.e., not Crude) Rates of Flow
1. Age-specific Migration Rate (ASMigR)
# x year old migrants
ASMigR(x) = ───────────── * 1000
# x year olds
a. ASMigR(x) can be interpreted as the probability that someone x years old will migrate during the year
b. The relationship between age and ASMigR is one of the most fundamental phenomena in the analysis of migration:
The probability of migration is highest among young adults. The next most likely to move are young children. [Why?] (SHOW CHART)
C. Ratios
1. Migration Effectiveness Ratio
# in-migrants ─ # out-migrants
= ────────────────── * 100
# in-migrants + # out-migrants
a. What fraction of the moves end up adding to the population
2. Migration Ratio
# in-migrants ─ # out-migrants
= ──────────────────
# births - # deaths
a. The size of net migration compared with net natural increase
b. Migration ratio = 1.0 means net migration = net natural increase
EX: California's 2001-2002 net migration ratio = 1.04; 2006-7 = -.01;
what happened?
EX: West Virginia had the highest 2006-7 at 30.6, mostly because it had a very low net natural increase (only 102) (why?). SC was second at 3.2, and Nevada third (2.5)
3. Percent of total growth due to migration
# in-migrants ─ # out-migrants
= ─────────────────────────────── * 100
(# in-migrants + # out-migrants) + (# births - # deaths)
net migration
= ───────── * 100
growth
a. The size of net migration compared with net natural increase
EX: Alabama in 2006-7: growth = 37,611 net migration = 22,504
Pct growth due to migration = 60%
[Looking back] If AL’s pop = 4.5 million, what’s its growth rate? When will its population be 9 million (assuming the growth rate doesn’t change)?
EX: United States, 2000-2005
D. Stock measures
1. Percent non-citizen
2. Percent foreign born
3. Percent legal / illegal
Mechanisms – step and chain
II. General approaches to migration
A. Examination of reasons for migration
B. Examination of origin-destination patterns
C. Consideration of whether or not boundaries were crossed, especially boundaries between countries
D. Consequences of migration
III. Categories of International Migrants
A. Useful to think about to remind us of the wide range of kinds of people who migrate
(See overhead)
B. Five categories:
1. Settlers
2. Contract workers
3. Professionals
4. Undocumented workers
5. Refugees and asylum seekers
1. Settlers - want to live permanently in a new location and have formal permission
-- About 1.5 million a year
-- Immigration laws typically give preference to skilled workers and relatives of current residents
2. Contract workers - "guests" who are allowed in to work but are expected to leave eventually
-- Largest numbers in the Gulf states
3. Professionals - essentially contract workers in professional jobs
-- Many managers in multinational corporations are "ex-patriots" (people not currently living in their home country)
-- In the US, 420,000 are here on H- 1B visas, available only to highly educated workers
4. Undocumented workers - people in a country "illegally"
-- Difficult to count
-- US probably the most, ~ 11 million, mostly Mexican(updated number due to Passel)
-- ~ 3 million in Western Europe
5. Refugees and asylum seekers
-- ~ 12 million refugees, 900,000 asylum seekers
Source: Peter Stalker. 2001. The No-Nonsense Guide to International Migration. Oxford, UK: New Internationalist Publications
IV. Reasons for migration
A. Two types of reasons: push factors and pull factors
B. Push factors are factors that make you want to leave your origin
1. E.g., lack of work, lack of land, famine, persecution of various sorts, crummy climate
C. Pull factors are factors that attract you to your destination
1. E.g., a job, demand for your skills, good climate, more congenial cultural climate, available land, being captured and forcibly taken to the destination
D. For most Americans, job-related reasons (push and pull) are the most important reasons for crossing county lines, especially long moves; housing-related are most important for shorter moves
E. Push and pull operate at personal (rational choice), family, and structural levels
1. Individuals make “rational choices” about moving
a. Rationality is limited
(1). Thomas theorem is alive and well in migration: people move on the basis of what they think the destination will be like, not on the basis of what it is actually like
Thomas Theorem – If men define situations as real they are real in their consequences
Or … People decide what to do next on the basis of what they think is happening now
2. Research shows that often it is actually the family that is making choices (the new home economics)
a. Sometimes they’ll send a daughter instead of a son because even though the son will make more abroad, daughters tend to send back more
F. STRUCTURAL FACTORS OFTEN AFFECTING INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION
1. WAGE GAP GRADIENT
Mexico-US among the greatest
Migrants don’t make the average, of course
Flow is often further encouraged by employers interested in finding lower cost workers
2. SECTORAL EXPANSION/CONTRACTION [CBB]
Here we’re talking about economic sectors
Rapid expansion in an area may call for more workers than are close at hand
Often affects internal migration as well as international
Decline/contraction of agriculture drove many away from where they started
Historically very important for both international and internal migration
Still important in urbanization
3. POPULATION PRESSURE (MORE WORKERS THAN JOBS)
I think of the massive migration from Europe from 1500 to 1950
4. AGING WORK FORCE IN TARGET COUNTRIES
Leaves entry-level jobs harder to fill
Generates need for young workers to pay into old age security systems
Especially a concern in Europe
5. MORE EDUCATED WORK FORCE IN TARGET COUNTRIES
Educated workers are "attracted" to a different set of jobs and careers, leaving "opportunity" in more manual labor
6. GLOBALIZATION
Opportunity
Information
Transportation
7. PREEXISTING PATTERNS OF MIGRATION
Migration streams
Institutionalization of institutions facilitating flows
V. WHY NOT MOVE?
A.Bonds to current location
1. Control theory in criminology asks not, "Why do people commit crime?" but rather "Why don't people commit crime?"
a. The basic answer: the more we are committed/attached to the legitimate order, the less likely we are to commit crime
2. In terms of migration the idea is that the more committed/attached to where you are now, the less likely you are to leave
3. Links to the legitimate order/the current location specified by control theory
a. Attachments
b. Investments
c. Involvements
d. Beliefs
4. Young adults tend to have weakest bonds
B. Norms
1. Elder care
2. Family unity
a. Nuclear and perhaps even extended family should stay together
3. Ethnocentrism
4. On the other hand, norms can be push factors
a. "Fads" (like semester abroad now in US higher ed, continental tour for high class Brits in 19th century, time in US for Mexican young men today)
b. Life cycle norms may include moves
1) Neolocal residence
2) Starter homes and moving up
3) Going away to college
4) Military
C. Other obstacles
1. Physical barriers
a. Distance & terrain (like oceans, deserts)
1) Make trip expensive and/or dangerous
2. Economic obstacles
a. Travel costs
b. Setup in the new place
c. Opportunity costs [DEFINE]
DEFINITION: the opportunity cost of an action is what you would have gotten if you had not made the action. The opportunity cost of migration is what you are giving up by leaving where you are
1). Those who are going to do well where they are may stay
3. Legal obstacles
a. Emigration laws - limits on leaving
1) e.g., USSR and Eastern Europe during Cold War
b. Immigration laws - limits on entry
1) Often reflect nativism and xenophobia
1.1) Nativism - preference for natives, usually combined with dislike of foreigners
1.2) Xenophobia - fear of foreigners
4. Cultural obstacles
a. Language
b. Ethnocentrism
1) In both origin and destination
5. Personality
a. Really need to be risk-tolerant
b. Ambition helps, too
Consequences of migration
Economic benefits to hosts of migration
[Mostly lifeted from Peter Stalker. 2001. The No-Nonsense Guide to International Migration. Oxford, UK: New Internationalist Publications. Chapter 4 “The Economic Benefits of Immigration”]
I. Prima facie immigrants generate growth
A. Except for Japan, all major expanding economies have lots of immigrants
[China? Yes, if only foreign professionals/businessmen]
OBJECTION: maybe the immigrants don’t cause growth; maybe growth causes immigration
II. Immigrants generate work for other people
A. Lump of labor fallacy – “a belief that the number of jobs in any country is fixed” p. 64
1. If this is true, then a job taken by an immigrant means a job lost by an indigene (i.e., someone already there)
2. That is, jobs are a zero sum game
a. Zero sum game: a situation in which the total amount of some "goody" is fixed. The only way one actor can get more is for one or more others to get less.
3. The fallacy is, as advertised, fallacious
B. Example jobs created by immigration
1. Border Patrol agents
2. Food producers – more people require more food
3. Food retailers
a. Also people who sell paper to retailers for receipts, truckers, etc.
______
Lump of Labor Fallacy
______
Lump of Labor Fallacy – there is a fixed number of jobs
Essentially argues that employment is a zero sum game
In fact, local job markets grow and shrink in response to:
-- the state of the economy
-- local demand for goods and services
-- decisions by employers to expand, shrink, or move in or out
Positive net migration can create jobs
-- More people require more retail sales
-- Increased demand for governmental services
-- Willingness to work for less can lead to more being hired
______
III. Employers like immigrants better than the alternative (or they wouldn't hire them)
A. Employers are, of course, very important
B. They could raise wages or send work elsewhere
1. A Backman pet peeve: “No one else will do the work”
a. What they mean is, “No one else will do the work at a wage we are willing to pay and under working conditions we are willing to provide”
b. Working conditions are also key
1. Many of these jobs are 3Ds – difficult, dirty, and dangerous [see below]
2. Why not raise wages?
a. Partly GP [general principle] – wages are a cost
b. Partly out of concern that maintaining the hierarchy will require giving everyone raises
3. Why not send the work elsewhere?
a. Obviously some is sent elsewhere
b. Employer might not want to relocate him- or herself
c. Some of the work (cleaning, repairs, harvesting) is difficult to relocate
IV. Types of jobs held by immigrants
A. High demand at the top and bottom of the hierarchy
B. Professionals (the top) [we tend not to think of these workers]
1. Many LDCs [less developed countries] don’t have enough local talent
a. E.g., small African countries
b. Sometimes foreign “assistance” comes with the requirement that folks from the assisting country be in charge of the work and/or the “donated” equipment
2. Many MDCs [more developed countries] have needs
a. In rapidly growing segments like IT
(1). There is a lot of political pressure in the US to allow more IT folks to enter the US
b. In parts of the country considered locally undesirable
(1) Rural areas
(2) Central cities
(3) Immigrant doctors seem especially likely to be found in rural clinics or inner city hospitals
C. 3-D jobs (the bottom)
1. 3-Ds: dirty, dangerous, and difficult
2. Increased education, lowered birth rates have reduced the usual pool [less educated and younger workers]
3. The natives are familiar with the culture and are likely to feel any cultural stigmas associated with these jobs
4. Construction (throughout the world)
5. Dual labor market theory
OVERHEAD
Dual Labor Market Theory
______
There are two sectors in the labor market: the primary and the secondary
Primary labor market – jobs are relatively safe, secure, and reasonably paid, with benefits
Secondary labor market – jobs tend to be less secure, low paid, and without benefits. Often “dirty, difficult, and dangerous” (3-d jobs)
Some social scientists identify a third sector, the underground labor market – largely off the books, these jobs evade all legal protections
V. Managing peaks and troughs
A. Lots of peaks and troughs
1. Agriculture
a. e.g., old travels of migrant workers
2. Construction – western New York two seasons: winter and construction
3. Boom and bust economic cycles
B. How to handle troughs
1. Not renew contracts
2. Lay off
a. Think dual economy
3. Deport illegals
C. How to handle peaks
1. Turn on the spigot
2. Reduce immigration enforcement
3. Some countries good at it (Canada, Germany, Singapore)
VI. Allow better use of native workers
A. Freeing workers for higher paid work
1. Child care workers for example
VII. Do immigrants depress wages?
A. (Not quite an answer) They don’t seem to affect unemployment
1. cf. lump of labor
B. In general there seems to be little effect
1. Those most hurt are the previous batch of immigrants
VIII. Do immigrants use more welfare?
A. In the short term, probably
1. Depends in part on how you count education
2. They’re younger, poorer, more uninsured, and they often have children