Meeting university attainment targets by 2025 – Victoria
Outline of paper
This paper examines the implications for Victoria of the Federal Government’s policy target for 40 per cent of all 25 to 34 year olds in Australia to have a bachelor degree qualification or above by 2025. It uses population projections and Census data relating to attainment levels in order to estimate the change required in Victoria for Australia to reach this target.
The calculations here are primarily intended to provide an indication of the scope of the change that will need to occur within the 25 to 34 year age group over the coming decade or so. However, these findings do raise questions about the way in which these levels will be achieved – particularly in terms of the role of the university sector in Victoria. These issues are discussed in the final section, but will be the subject of further discussion and research which utilises the findings here as the basis for exploring the individual components of growth.
Methodology
This research uses two sources of data to establish its conclusions. Data from the 2006 ABS Census of Australian Population and Housing has been used to establish the level of attainment at the bachelor degree or above in the 25 to 34 age group. This information has been coupled with population projections from the ABS in order to calculate future numbers in the targeted age cohort and examine different attainment-based scenarios.
Measuring attainment
A task such as this is made difficult at the outset because of issues with establishing the level of attainment at the bachelor level or above within the current population. Since the release of the Bradley Review’s Report of Australian Higher Education, there have been a couple of different attainment level figures quoted publicly. Within the Report itself, an attainment rate of 29 per cent for the 25 to 34 year old population is used, based on the 2006 figures from the OECD publication Education at a Glance 2008. A subsequent policy statement released in mid-2009 by the Federal Government addressing many of the Bradley recommendations (Transforming Australia’s Higher Education System), states ‘the current rate for bachelor degrees for 25 to 34 year olds stands at around 32 per cent’ (p.12). It is assumed that this figure of 32 per cent is for 2009, but there is no indication in the policy document of how this figure was calculated or the data source used to arrive at this figure.
In trying to replicate these figures with available data, issues arise. Census data has been used here because it is a very large collection and therefore enables exploration of individual age groups and smaller geographic areas for the purpose of estimating attainment levels at a fine level of detail. Using the whole population of 25 to 34 year olds from the Census, the rate of attainment at a bachelor degree or higher for 2006 is calculated at 26.3 per cent – noticeably below the Bradley figure of 29 per cent.
However, the Bradley/OECD figure can be established more closely with the Census data by slightly altering the population used as the denominator for the calculation. By removing those in the age group who did not correctly complete the Census questions relating to qualification level (i.e. taking out those whose response was coded as ‘not stated’ or ‘inadequately described’) and recalculating the attainment rates for 2006, a figure of 29.4 is achieved. This matches the Australian attainment level displayed in the OECD publication used in Bradley’s report. Therefore, the base calculations of attainment levels undertaken in this paper use the Census data with the ‘not stated’ and ‘inadequately described’ results removed.
Calculating future attainment rates
This paper estimates future attainment rates for the population based on the individual age year attainment rates calculated from the 2006 Census data. Individual years, rather than an average for the whole 25 to 34 group have been used due to the differences in rates among the individual years of age. As shown in Table 1, the attainment rates within this age group rise between the ages 25 and 27, and then slowly decline from 28 to 34. The reason for the rise to the age of 27 is likely to be that the final large cohorts of university entrants are completing their qualification up to this age. The decline after age 27 could be evidence of lower participation among the whole cohort of these older age groups.
Table 1: Proportion of population with a bachelor degree qualification or above, by year of age and location of residence, 2006 (%)
Age / Melbourne / Balance of Victoria / Total Victoria / Total Australia25 / 38.6 / 19.4 / 34.6 / 29.6
26 / 39.7 / 19.6 / 35.7 / 30.4
27 / 40.1 / 20.1 / 36.0 / 30.7
28 / 39.5 / 19.8 / 35.3 / 30.3
29 / 39.1 / 20.0 / 35.1 / 30.3
30 / 38.4 / 19.1 / 34.2 / 29.5
31 / 37.0 / 19.3 / 33.2 / 29.4
32 / 35.7 / 19.0 / 32.0 / 28.7
33 / 35.1 / 19.3 / 31.6 / 28.4
34 / 33.8 / 18.4 / 30.3 / 27.4
25-34 / 37.6 / 19.4 / 33.7 / 29.4
Source: ABS Census, 2006 (N.S. and inadequ. described removed)
Assumptions about the attainment rates into the future are based on the flow of the individual year groups through the population. Therefore, the rate for 28 year old in 2007 is estimated at the same level as it was for 27 year olds in 2006 and so on. For example, for Melbourne, the attainment rate in 2006 of 40.1 per cent among 27 year olds is taken into the 2007 figures for 28 year olds and into the 2010 figures for 31 year olds. In effect, calculating future attainment in this way builds in the natural growth in attainment that is noticeable in the 2006 Census data. In the base calculation which estimates numbers if attainment rates remain stable (Scenario A, explained below), an assumption is made that the attainment levels for the 25 and 26 year olds will continue at the same rate through to 2025, but that the rate for those aged 27 and above will slowly grow according to the high level achieved by the 27 year old group in 2006.
The future attainment rates are applied to population projection figures which are based on the ABS projections Series B. This is the middle series in the ABS projections and is the most commonly used for providing forecasts. The Series B projections rely on the following assumptions – a total fertility rate of 1.8 babies per woman, an annual migration rate of 180,000 persons and a life expectancy of 85 for males and 88 for females (see ABS cat 3222.0 for further details). Individual projections for Australia, Melbourne and the Balance of Victoria have been used in the calculations displayed here.
Scenarios used in analysis
In considering the future attainment levels of Victorians in the age brackets of focus in the Bradley Review and in the Federal Government targets, three scenarios have been created using the population projections. These scenarios help to provide a context for understanding the extent of the change that is required if Australia is to achieve the attainment targets by 2025. The basis of each of these scenarios is explained below.
Scenario A – Current attainment levels are maintained
This first scenario is designed to provide information based on what the attainment levels for Victoria and Australia might look like if the attainment levels within the 25 to 34 year age group as measured in 2006 were to remain stable until 2025. As discussed above, this scenario takes into account the different levels of attainment within this large age cohort when calculating future levels.
Scenario B – Victoria achieves an attainment rate of 40 per cent by 2025
This scenario examines the size of the 25-34 year old cohort in 2025 if Victoria was to achieve a 40 per cent attainment rate of people with a bachelor degree or above. The calculations in this scenario are adjusted to assume that the balance of the bachelor and above population in this age group within and outside Melbourne remains the same for this group as it was in 2006. This balance is calculated for each individual year of age within the 25 to 34 year group. On average across this cohort, 87.7 per cent of those in Victoria with a bachelor degree or higher were residing in Melbourne.
Scenario C – Australia achieves an attainment rate of 40 per cent by 2025
This scenario explores the role that Victoria would need to play if Australia is to reach the 40 per cent attainment targets by 2025. This is different to the figures in Scenario B, because due to the relative size of Victoria and the high concentration of people with bachelor degree level qualifications, the Victorian contribution to the attainment of these targets is necessarily more substantial than is the case for states with smaller overall concentrations of this population.
The calculations in this scenario are also adjusted to account for the overall share of people in this age group in Australia with a bachelor degree qualification and above who reside in Melbourne or the Balance of Victoria. These calculations are undertaken individually for each age year, but on average Melbourne is estimated to have a 25.7 per cent share and the Balance of Victoria, 3.6 per cent of all those in this age cohort with a bachelor degree or above. In the projections, it is assumed that this share of the Australian bachelor and above population remains the same to 2025.
Findings
In 2006, there were 247,602 people aged between 25 and 34 with a bachelor degree or higher living in Victoria. Overall, 33.8 per cent of people in this age group in Victoria had this level of qualification (Table 2). The Victorian rate is higher than the rate for Australia as a whole (29.4 per cent) and within Victoria, there are notable differences in attainment, with those in Melbourne having an attainment level of 37.6 per cent compared with 19.4 per cent in the rest of Victoria.
Table 2: Base numbers and attainment rates of 25 to 34 year olds with a bachelor degree or above, selected areas, 2006
Number with bachelor or above / Attainment rate for bachelor and above (%)Melbourne / 217,900 / 37.6
Balance of Vic / 29,703 / 19.4
Victoria / 247,602 / 33.8
Australia / 852,188 / 29.4
Source: ABS Census, 2006, ABS Population Projections, 2008
When these attainment numbers are projected out to 2025, the figures and rates for Victoria are noticeably different for each of the scenarios calculated. Figure 1 shows the estimated size of this cohort in 2025 for each of the three scenarios. In Scenario A, where current levels are maintained, it is anticipated that the number of 25 to 34 year olds in Victoria with a bachelor degree or above will be 331,159 by 2025, with the majority of these people based in Melbourne. In Scenario B, were Victoria achieves a 40 per cent attainment, a total of 366,163 people will be in this group. In order to achieve the 40 per cent attainment for the whole of Australia, again a larger number will be required – 430,655.
Source: ABS Census, 2006, ABS Population Projections, 2008
Figure 1: Estimated numbers of 25 to 34 year olds with a bachelor degree or above in Victoria by 2025 based on three scenarios, by region
These numbers are converted into attainment rates in Figure 2. It shows that the projected attainment rates for Victoria will need to grow beyond the 40 per cent level if Australia is to reach its 40 per cent target (Scenario C). For Melbourne, the difference between attainment rates that are predicted to be achieved if current levels are maintained (39.9 per cent) are not substantially different to the level required if Victoria was to achieve 40 per cent attainment (43.1 per cent), but a notable change will be needed for Melbourne to reach 50.7 per cent attainment – the figure that would be required if Melbourne was to contribute to the Australian 40 per cent target at the same level at which it contributes to the current attainment rates in Australia.
For the Balance of Victoria, the rise in attainment level from the anticipated base (20 per cent) to the Victorian 40 per cent target (26.5 per cent for Balance of Victoria) or the Australian 40 per cent target (31.1 per cent) is substantial.
Source: ABS Census, 2006, ABS Population Projections, 2008
Figure 2: Attainment rate in 2025 of people aged 25 to 34 with a bachelor degree or higher, based on three scenarios, by selected areas
Figure 3 helps to explain the relative size of the growth in the 25 to 34 year old cohort with a bachelor degree or higher that will be required in each of the three scenarios explored in this paper. It shows that if rates continued at their 2006 levels, population growth alone would result in a rise of 83,557 people in this cohort in Victoria – essentially this is the ‘demographic growth’. The data in the red and green parts of the bars in Figure 3 for scenarios B and C show the growth required in addition to the demographic impact– this is the ‘policy-based growth’, so named because unless policy changes to attract more people with/to these degrees, it is unlikely that these numbers will be achieved. As can be seen, for Victoria to achieve a 40 per cent attainment target, growth of 35,003 people with this level of degree would be required in addition to the demographic growth anticipated. For the Australian 40 per cent target to be achieved, a substantial growth of nearly 100,000 people in addition to the demographic growth will be required in Victoria in this age group.
These findings show that, assuming the current distribution of people with bachelor degrees or above in Australia remains the same (i.e. that Victoria accounts for 29.3 per cent of this population) the Victorian role in helping Australia meet the 40 per cent attainment target is notably large – especially in comparison to the growth needed if Victoria was simply to aim to a 40 per cent state-wide target.