European Centre for the Development
of Vocational Training / Directorate F: Social Statistics and Information Society
Unit F-4: Education, science and culture statistics

2011-ETS-04EN - Version 04/05/2011

Education and training Statistics Working Group

Item 4.4

State of play as regards the 2009 LFS module

Meeting of the

Education and Training StatisticsWorking Group

Luxembourg, 23-24 May 2011

JMOBuilding - Room M4

Dissemination of the data from the 2009 EU-LFS ad hoc module on the entry of young people into the labour market is envisaged at two levels:

-Standard tables to be published on Eurostat website along with

-Publications presenting the main results of the survey.

For the analytical publications, Eurostat foresees the dissemination of 3 articles of about 10 pages (“Statistics in Focus”or "Statistics explained" – referred to as SiF below). Three chapters will complement these “SiFs” in the context of joint publications with other EU institutions (e.g. Eurydice, CRELL –see section 1). It is also planned that CEDEFOP will contribute to the dissemination of the survey results with three further publicationsfocussing on vocational education and training as presented in section 2 below.

Section 3 presents the validation and analysis procedures which will involve all countries who participated in the module. Section 3 addresses in particular the plans for the development of statistics on educational attainment data by orientation (general/vocational) and the relationship with the tasks performed by the OECD network on Labour and Social Outcomes of learning with the support of CEDEFOP.

The Education and Training Statistics Working Group is invited to:

-Take note on the publication plan and comment on the topics proposed;

-Provide further information on comparability and quality of the results of the 2009 LFS module based on the results in the annexes and control tables provided by Eurostat[1];

-Confirmthe approach towards a variable on orientation of education attainment in the regularLFS, i.e variableto be derived from national LFS data (implementation date to be discussed along with the implementation of ISCED 2011).

1.EUROSTAT publications

Results from the 2009 moduleare planned to be disseminated around three main topics.

-Main features of the entry of young people into the labour market in 2009;

-Transition of young people in higher education;

-Transition of persons with lower secondary education (with a focus on early leavers from education and training).

The three publicationsare foreseen for the fourth quarter of 2011 to take account of the validation procedures required beforehand.

The publications related to education and training can be retrieved on the browser dedicated to publications on Eurostat’s website.

1.1Main features of the entry of young people into the labour market in 2009

Transition of young people to the labour market is the first planned publication subject. This SiF will present country and individual profiles on the transition of young people.

As the transition patterns are of a complex nature through the EU, derived variableshave been built to analyse the type of transitions in all countries[2].

These variables include information oncurrent and former jobs as well as ontime between leaving school and starting the first significant job.

This approach should allow an easier communication of the results although the algorithm will need to be explained separately for the sake of transparency.

The most important aspects of the first publicationwill be:

  • The average age when leaving formal education for the last timeand average time to start the first significant work (see the preliminary results in annex 1);
  • The type of the transition from school to work by country few years after graduation (incl. analyses by gender, age, education attainment);
  • First elements on the impact of orientation of education attainment (ISCED 3 and 4 - see the preliminary results in annex 2).

This publication will also allow providing additional information as regards the “contribution of education to employability”: As requested by the Education Council of the EU, the Commission is conducting work on a new indicator which will monitor progress and performanceof EU Member States in the field of education for employability[3].

In that context, it is foreseen to disseminatein 2011 quarter 2:

  • a “Statistics explained” (web article) on employment rates of young people a few years after graduation (based on annual EU-LFS results);
  • a “Statistics explained” on EU statistics related to transition: the aim of the article is to advise on the use of LFS annual data and ad-hoc module data for analysis (e.g. on employment rates after graduation and additional features on transition).

The web articles related to education and training can be retrieved on the browser dedicated to statistics explained on Eurostat’s website.

1.2Transition of young people from higher education

The second planned publication will focus on young people in higher education since this population is important in the context of the Bologna process and of the “Europe 2020” strategy (e.g. headline indicator ‘Tertiary educational attainment for the age group 30-34).

This SiF will cover in particular:

  • Results on the (mis)match of jobs and qualifications (incl. field of education); The work will take account of the discussions and achievements of the OECD LSO network, the Bologna working group as well as other groups such as the ILO Task Force on indicators the measurement of quality of employment.
  • Complementary data on the Europe 2020 headline indicator
  • An analysis of the impact of the education level of parents and country of origin (migration)

This SiF will extend the scope of the analysis to youngpeople beyond 5 years after leaving school while the first SiF will probably be mainly focussing on recent transition aspects.

1.3Transition of persons with lower secondary education (with a focus on early leavers)

The third planned publication will focus on the “early leavers from education and training” (all age groups) which a focus on the age 18-24 since this is the target group for oneof the eight headline indicators of the Europe 2020 strategy.

This SiF should provide information on:

  • The employment characteristics of this group and their employment status after leaving school (in complement to the first SiF)
  • Provide information on possible exclusion risks for these populations (e.g. long term unemployment, activity rates after leaving school, relationship with the indicator NEET i.e. young people not employed nor in education and training).
  • An analysis of the impact of the education level and country of birth of parents

As opposed to the first SiF but similarly to the second SIF, this SiF will also extend the scope of the analysis to young people beyond 5 years after leaving school.

2CEDEFOP publications

Cedefop plans three main publications on vocational education and training (VET)based on the 2009 ad hoc module and related core LFS data. Two will be short theme-based publications (around 40 pages each), closely linked with the policy agendaand containing clear policy messages. The third will be a research paper using a microdata extraction.

2.1The labour market outcomes of VET: patterns and characteristics in Europe

This is the first time that a household survey provideswide-scale internationally comparable information on the labour market outcomes of VET. As such, this first theme based publication will reveal the patterns and characteristics for VET graduates across Europe, comparing the labour market outcomes with people who have followed the general stream.

More specifically, it willfocus on employment and unemployment outcomes, and associated background characteristics such as age, gender, educational attainment or country contextual factors. To the extent possible, it will focus on the incidence of apprenticeships and patterns associated with this (proxied by available detailed responses to the variable HATVOC in the LFS ad hoc module questionnaire). It will also look at learning related issues such as later incidence of lifelong learning and, where possible (sampling being a particular concern), how orientation at secondary level influences further educational pathways.

The first theme-based publication is scheduled for release in 2011 quarter 4.

2.2Labour market transitions following VET: matching skills, finding jobs and moving between jobs

This second theme-based publication concentrates on the transition process for graduates of secondary level VET and compares it with people who have followed the general stream. In so doing it looks at the duration of the transition, the methods used to find work and the characteristics of the first job. Further aspects consider job (mis)match and mobility between jobs. Again, to the extent possible, it will focus on patterns associated with the incidence of apprenticeships (considering possible differences across countries in the way apprenticeships are defined).

The second theme-based publication is scheduled for release in 2012 quarter 1.

2.3Cedefop Research Paper

Using a microdata extraction from the Eurostat LFS database and various multivariate analyses, this publication will investigate more deeply patterns relating to VET as compared with general education, its labour market outcomes and associations with related background variables. Specific areas to be investigated will depend in part on the quality assessment of the data and promising areas highlighted in the analysis for the first two theme-based publications.

This Research Paper is scheduled for release in December 2012.

3Validation of the results of the 2009 EU-LFS module

The micro-data files for the 2009 module have been made available to Eurostat unit F4 ‘education, science and culture statistics’ in the last quarter of 2010 after a pre-validation performed by Eurostat unit F2 ‘labour market statistics’ responsible for the LFS micro-data (coding issues).

The validation of the 2009 module results is done through:

-A set of control tablesfor validation of the main results of the module: the tables are distributed to the ETS Working Group in the second half of May[4].

-An evaluation report presenting the main features of the module (quality report) with a focus on difficulties and comparability aspects. The first draft of this report is circulated to the ETS Working Group at the same time as the control tables.

This process is complemented by discussions of preliminary results in dedicated groups until June 2011 such as the OECD LSO Network meeting of 28 February to 2nd March 2011 as regards results on the orientation of educational attainment.

Some comparative results are attached in annexes 1 and 2 to allow a discussion during the ETS WG meeting on the accuracy and comparability of the results on:

-the date when leaving formal education for the last time;

-the date when starting the first significant job;

-the orientation of highest educational programme completed (educational attainment).

4.Further work related to the variable HATVOC(orientation of educational attainment)

As far as the ad-hoc module is concerned, further metadata investigations (with particular regard to the implementation/collection/derivation of programme orientation) will be useful to interpret and manage possible differences across countries and sources.

All this work will allow providing metadata on the 2009 results and the scope for improvement. The latter needs to be further examined in the context of the 2012 discussions on both the adaptation of the LFS educational variables (see item 4.5 of the agenda) and the guidelines of the measurement of educational attainment (in the scope of ISCED 2011 – see item 7.6 of the agenda).

Some key results from the LFS 2009 module variable "HATVOC" are presented in annex2 along with preliminary information on the potential of a derivation in the regular LFS for such a variable for young people[5].

(a) Metadata on the 2009 results

The metadata will focus on the criteria used by each country to arrive at programme orientation e.g. use of programme or qualification titles, field of education or existence of practical training within the programme. It is proposed to integrate the resulting metadata on the draft Circa webpage on educational attainment[6] proposed under item 7.6 of the agenda of the ETS WG meeting of May 2011[7].

(b) Potential for the derivation of the variable

Eurostat is of opinion that there is significant evidence for a derivation of the variable HATVOC in all countries in the future. CEDEFOP summarised all information available so far in table 3 of annex 2. The table shows that 22 EU countries are already able to derive information on the orientation of educational attainment from their regular LFS.

The future discussions for a regular provision of VET breakdowns for young peoplein the LFS will also have to take account of:

- policy needs for the period 2010-2020[8];

- the implementation of ISCED 2011 whose codification scheme foresees a second digitfor the orientation of programmes;

- the implementation of the 2011 AES as the variable is already included in the AES regulation[9].

ANNEX 1 - Main results of the 2009 module

The main potential issues to investigate in a module on transition are the quality and accuracy of the dates provided by respondents on leaving formal education and starting the first 'significant' job. Some countries have already warned Eurostat about potential issues concerning the quality of the information for these dates (e.g. Germany and Switzerland).

The main results around these key dates are presented below to allow a first discussion during the ETS WG meeting.

Table 1 –Average age when leaving formal educationand average time between leaving education and starting the first significant job- Preliminary results

Source: EU-LFS, 2009 ad-hoc module

(1) For persons leaving education within the last 5 years

(2) ‘significant’ work corresponds to the first employment lasting at least for 3 months

ANNEX 2 - State of play as regards the derivation of "orientation"

In cooperation with Eurostat, CEDEFOP is investigating accuracy and comparability of the variable HATVOC in two contexts:

- At EU level: analysis and publication of the results of 2009 LFS module as a whole, with particular attention to the variable HATVOC and combining this with the results of the regular LFS. Inter alia, the completeness of the data, main areas of missing data, reliability, accuracy and coherence of the programme orientation variable, including possible different approaches to implementation/collection/derivation of the variable across countries with a view to future improvements in international comparability.

- At OECD level: support to the work on 'learning and labour transitions' for the OECD INES network on Labour and Social Outcomes of learning (LSO): to the extent possible, a preliminary comparison of attainment and employment patterns by programme orientation is being carried out by bringing together data from different sources, all of which relying on LFS data: OECD VET pilot data collection, EU LFS field based derivation, EU LFS 2009 ad hoc module.

With the view of providing information on the results from the 2009 variable HATVOC and scope for regular data provision in the future, this annex presents:

  • Preliminary results on Educational attainment and employment rates of young people for persons with at least upper secondary education by orientation of programmes (table 2 below);
  • Potential for a derivation of a variable HATVOC in the regular LFS (table 3below);

In the context of the LSO network, the OECD plans to publish results on the outcomes of general and vocational education through breakdowns of the variable 'educational attainment'. A data collection was initiated by theLSO network. Columns 'A' to ‘D’ of the table below reflect the method for reporting the data in each country.

In the light of this process and of the implementation of the variable HATVOC in the 2009 LFS module and in the 2011 AES, Eurostat would like to pursue the discussions on the potential of including a derived variable on 'orientation' in the regular LFS. CEDEFOP has provided some preliminary information on this potential in the columns ‘E’ to ‘G in Table 3.

Preliminary findings indicatethat information on VET is regularly collected in national Labour Force Surveys in 22 European countries. Orientation can generally be derived from existing variables or categories related to the highest level of education[10].

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Table 2 –Employment rates of young people for persons having left education within the last 5 yearsby educational attainment and orientation of programmes, age 20-34- Preliminary results

Source: EU-LFS, 2009 ad-hoc module - (1) 100% = all people having left education within the last 5 years – (2) Hatlevel: educational attainment, Hatvoc: orientation

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Table 3 –Deriving orientation of the highest level of education from existing national LFS variables/categories

Preliminary outcomes of metadata investigations

Notes to table 3:

(A) The data/metadata collection has been launched with reference to the population aged up to 64 years. The orientation of education has been considered applicable up to ISCED levels 5. Results have shown that, nowadays, few countries have vocational programmes at lower secondary level and that more developmental work would be required to distinguish orientation at ISCED level 5. Preliminary indicators on labour market outcomes of VET have been presented for ISCED level 3-4 and age group 25-64. The data collection has been successful and will be repeated in future.

(B) Information is based on: 1st OECD data availability survey; outcomes of OECD pilot VET data/metadata collection

(C) When 2 or more methods of derivation may be possible, they are both reported. They appear separated by the symbol '.' Information is based on: 1st OECD data availability survey; analysis of OECD Pilot VET data/metadata collection; investigation on 2010 EU-LFS core questionnaires (Circa); Network information exchange.

(D) Some countries may have particular arrangements with OECD in order not to directly provide data. For these countries, data may be provided to the OECD by Eurostat. In those cases, since orientation is not collected in the core LFS, OECD has tested a possible derivation of the orientation by using the field of education. This was the case for Estonia, Finland, Netherlands, Denmark, Ireland, Luxembourg, Portugal: flag =(1). A particular test was carried out on the age group 25-34: in Estonia, Finland and Ireland attainment results match the 2009 AHM: flag=(2).