Israelis More Optimistic About Peace Prospects
Despite a variety of events that transpired during April, Israeli attitudes toward the peace process are on the upswing.
Among the highly visible activities that dominated the headlines were Operation Grapes of Wrath, the Israeli response to Lebanese attacks on northern border towns and the Palestine National Council’s meeting to consider deleting anti-Israeli clauses in the Palestinian Covenant. The Israeli election campaign swung into high gear. The Labor Party changed its platform positions regarding a Palestinian state and importance of the Golan Heights and there was a marked increase in political activity and advertising.
Results of the April peace index survey, conducted on the 29th of the month, indicate a significant and distinct upward trend in the Oslo index, which measures Israeli public opinion towards the agreements with the Palestinians. There were more moderate and less obvious gains in the general peace index and the Syrian index. The Oslo index stood at 56 points in April, compared to 50.5 points in March. The general peace index, measuring overall confidence in the peace process, rose from March’s 62.5 points to 63.3 and the Syrian index rose from 38.4 points in March to 40.5 points in April.
This month’s results indicate that the cautious optimism over the end of downward slide expressed in March was not misplaced. Generally, all indices have risen five points in the last three surveys.
Public perceptions of the overall progress of the peace process are increasingly more positive. In October 1995, nearly two-thirds of the public (64%) said they were somewhat or very disappointed in the progress of the peace process compared to about one-third (36%) who were somewhat or very encouraged by it. In the present survey, the number of those who were disappointed fell to 48 percent while those encouraged rose to 47 percent (5 percent did not know).
The rise in the indices was consistent with the attitudes towards the events in April, which can be interpreted as greater public confidence in government policies. More than half of those questioned (57%) felt, considering the information disclosed about the agreement with Syria and Lebanon, that Operation Grapes of Wrath was somewhat or very successful, compared to 35 percent who felt that the operation was minimally successful or did not succeed at all. Concurrently, a large majority of the public (83%) indicated that they felt Operation Grapes of Wrath would not damage the negotiations with the Palestinians and might even intensify them. Only 11 percent felt that the military operation would have a negative effect on the talks, and 6 percent did not know. In addition, more than two-thirds (67%) felt the operation would not damage negotiations with Syria and might even speed them up, while only 21 percent felt the negotiations would slow down (12 percent did not know).
It is noteworthy that more than half (53%) felt that Syrian President Assad’s inflexible stance during the negotiations over a cease-fire and agreement proved that he had no real interest in peace with Israel. More than one-third (38%) disagreed with that position and 9 percent did not know.
-more-
-2-
Especially interesting were the opinions of the Jewish citizens of Israel on the Israeli Arab reaction to the operation. Israeli Jews expressed considerable sensitivity to the special and complex situation of Arabs in Israel, who are both citizens of the Jewish State and members of the Arab nation.
While only 64 percent of those surveyed responded, 22 percent of those who did felt the Arab reaction was neither understandable not justified; 12 percent felt the Israeli Arab reaction was both understandable and justified and 63 percent indicated they understood the response, but felt it was not justified.
Commenting on the Palestinian National Council’s cancellation of the paragraphs in the Palestinian Covenant calling for the destruction of Israel, more than half, about 52 percent, thought that the decision proves the Palestinians are indeed interested in continuing the peace process; 45 percent felt this was not the case and 6 percent did not know.
On the Labor Party abrogation of the platform plank opposing a Palestinian State, nearly two-thirds (63%) felt it would not change the number of votes the party would receive in the May 29 election or might even increase them, compared to one-quarter (26%) who felt the change would decrease the number of votes, with 11 percent who did not know.
The majority of those questioned (55%) felt that the Labor Party change in its position on the Golan Heights - from referring to that territory as a security asset even in a time of peace to the position that it is a national asset only - would not change or raise the number of votes the party would receive nor did they feel it damage the Labor Party in its relations with Syria. One-third (33%) felt the alteration would decrease the number of votes.
Following up on a question posed in March, respondents were asked whether a Labor government headed by Shimon Peres, or a Likud government headed by Benjamin Netanyahu, would better protect Israel’s interests in negotiations with the Arabs. The number who chose Peres (42%) is higher than those who chose Netanyahu; 16 percent felt both would be equally successful while 6 percent felt neither would be successful and another 6 percent had no opinion on the subject.
Voters appear to be more secure in their beliefs as reflected by the rise in both camps. April’s intense political activity appears to have delineated the differences between the two major parties and strengthened voter identification In March, 36 percent chose Labor, 28 percent Likud; 18 percent felt both would do well with 10 percent opting for neither and 6 percent with no opinion.
####
The peace index, a project of Tel Aviv University’s Tami Steinmetz Center for Peace Research, is under the direction of Professor Ephraim Yaar, Dr. Tamar Hermann and Professor Arie Nadler. The 503 participants sampled by telephone is representative of the Jewish population of Israel. The margin of error is plus/minus four percent.
PERMANENT QUESTIONS ON THE GENERAL PEACE INDEX
1. In general, do you consider yourself a supporter or opponent of the peace process between Israel and the Arabs?
Greatly opposed: 6.8 %
Somewhat opposed: 8.1 %
In the middle14.0 %
Somewhat supportive29.8 %
Greatly supportive39.2 %
Don’t know/No opinion 2.2 %
2. Do you believe or not believe that in the coming years there will be peace between Israel and the Arabs?
Certain there will be peace10.2 %
Think there will be peace40.5 %
In the middle14.1 %
Think there will not be peace15.2 %
Certain there will not be peace14.1 %
Don’t know/No opinion 5.9 %
PERMANENT QUESTIONS ON THE OSLO INDEX
1. What is your position on the agreement that was signed in Oslo between Israel and the PLO?
Heavily in favor19.0 %
Somewhat in favor24.6 %
In the middle26.5 %
Somewhat opposed10.1 %
Heavily opposed12.0 %
Don’t know/No opinion 4.9 %
2. Do you believe or not believe that the Oslo agreement between Israel and the PLO will bring about peace between Israel and the Palestinians in the coming years?
Greatly believe15.8 %
Somewhat believe31.2 %
In the middle17.9 %
Somewhat don’t believe14.4 %
Certainly don’t believe17.3 %
Don’t know/No opinion 3.3 %
PERMANENT QUESTIONS ON THE SYRIAN INDEX
1. If a peace treaty between Israel and Syria were to include public recognition by Syria of Israel and her right to exist, full diplomatic relations, demilitarization of the Golan Heights, free passage for individuals between the countries, and international guarantees of Israel’s security, would you support or oppose Israeli withdrawal from the Golan Heights in exchange for a peace treaty with Syria?
Support full withdrawal from the Golan Heights23.8 %
Support partial withdrawal from the Golan Heights33.5 %
Opposed to any withdrawal from the Golan Heights38.1 %
Don’t know/No opinion 4.5 %
2. What is your position regarding a full peace treaty with Israel in exchange for full withdrawal from the Golan Heights?
Greatly in favor15.1 %
Somewhat in favor16.4 %
In the middle12.4 %
Somewhat opposed15.8 %
Greatly opposed37.7 %
Don’t know/no opinion 2.7 %