IAN POTTER ASSOCIATES 22nd August 2014
Specialist Agricultural Quota & Entitlement Brokers
Telephone 01335 324594 Fax 01335 324584
Website www.ipaquotas.co.uk Email Issue No. 780
Today / Last Week / Change / 4 Weeks Ago / 1 Year agoClean / 0.1ppl / 0.1ppl / - / 0.1ppl / 0.20ppl
Producers in E & W / 10,145 / 10,225 / -80 / 10,225 / 10,518
£ : $ / £1.65 / £1.67 / -0.02 / £1.69 / £1.56
£ : € / £1.24 / £1.24 / - / £1.26 / £1.17
Crude Oil / £102 / £102 / - / £107 / £110
Wheat / £121 / £123 / -£2.00 / £129 / £155
Soya meal / £340 / £331 / +£9.00 / £319 / £402
(Commodity and currency prices – source BOCM Pauls)
Milk Quota Available (Sale)
Litres Available / Butterfat % / Price1,447,345 / 3.82 / 0.1ppl (£1,447.34)
902,323 / 3.87 / 0.1ppl (£902.32)
1,000,000 / 3.90 / 0.1ppl (£1,000)
Milk Quota Available (Lease)
Litres Available / Butterfat % / Price1,000,000 / 4.01 / 0.1ppl (£1000)
250,000 / 4.03 / 0.1ppl (£250)
2015 Single Farm Payments Available
15.22 English Non SDA (use by 2015) / £1407 English Non SDA (use by 2015) / £140
4.59 English Non SDA (use by 2015) / £140
GDT results are mixed but still grim
This Tuesday’s GDT auction results on the face of it looked encouraging; however, the devil is in the detail.
Overall, the average was down only 0.6% to the auction price recorded two weeks ago. Notable price moves were as follows:
Butter +4.9% to $2940 tonne or £1770 tonne
WMP +3.4% to $2804 tonne or £1688 tonne
Cheese -7.9% to $3453 tonne or £2079 tonne
Arla Westbury SMP -12.0% to $2995 tonne or £1800 tonne
Average -0.6% to $3000 tonne and the lowest for two years
If you take the GDT average auction butter price @ £1770 and the GDT Arla UK SMP average auction price @ £1800 and plug both into the 2014 AMPE calculation it gives you a tearful 21ppl AMPE.
If you take the current average Dutch butter price (€3200 tonne) and the average Dutch food grade SMP price (€2150) the AMPE comes out at just over 24ppl (24.1p).
It doesn’t matter whose figures you use the result is bleak.
Queen and “Under Pressure” as Russian ban bites
The Russian ban on EU dairy products is starting to bite very hard, particularly, for cheese which is dropping in value almost daily.
Current EU quotes suggest values of only €2800 tonne (£2250 = to circa 22.5ppl). Latest figures to June 2014 confirm that Russian imported 110,000 tonnes (28.7%) of cheese directly from the EU in the first six months of 2014 but this excludes cheese EU member states sold to countries like Belarus, Ukraine and Lithuania, which is exported to Russia.
One trader and commentator believes finding alternative markets for this tonnage of cheese is close to mission impossible as opposed to a challenge. So anyone with unsold average to low quality cheese in stock maturing is in for a big does of medicine. Going forward it seems inevitable that milk will be switched out of cheese into powder, which will do nothing to stop the downward spiral in SMP, WMP and butter prices.
As the Queen group song goes it’s: “Under Pressure”
1.2ppl price reduction for Arla AMCO members – from September 1st
This takes members www.milkprices.com standard litre price down to 30.38ppl, which excluding the butterfat adjustment/fat tax (0.6ppl) and the estimated 13th payment (0.81ppl) gives a standard litre paid out price of 28.97ppl. For Arla Milk Link members it will be 30.38 with the 13th payment (0.81ppl) coming in March 2015 so the monthly money to bank for them for September milk will be 29.57ppl.
Milk protests are likely to start as soon as next week
Farmers For Action (FFA) have posted a dairy crisis news item on their website warning of 25p or less milk prices.
The proposal is for peaceful protests to kick in presumably targeted mainly at those involved in the domestic market, particularly liquid milk processors and retail distribution outlets etc.
For the full press release click on http://www.farmersforaction.org/4.html
Roger Evans to leave First Milk – Why?
The Scottish Farmer has this week released the secret known to many that Roger Evans, Shropshire dairy farmer, Dairy Farmer columnist, former First Milk Chairman and (at one time) anti anything Arla or Muller-Wiseman is to leave the co-op to supply Muller-Wiseman.
First Milk have commented they are disappointed to see any member leave, however, what’s surprising about this is zero comment from Roger by way of any explanation to The Scottish Farmer journalist who contacted him this week. This is the man, remember, who has written hundreds of thousands of words over the past 25 years plus in Dairy Farmer and other magazines, plus books, giving us his view on virtually everything to do with dairying. He has enlightened readers on all that happens on his farm, so it is strange that he could not even find a single sentence to explain his decision to leave, especially given that leaving First Milk must be one of the biggest decisions he has ever taken relating to his farm.
On that score we will no doubt have to wait for his next Dairy Farmer article, when all will presumably be revealed!
First Milk change milk cheque payment dates
The co-op have given members three months notice that milk cheque payments will change from paying for all milk delivered in a month on the 17th of the month following to paying 50% on the 10th and the remaining 50% on the 24th.
The co-op state this is to help member clash flows.
The change will commence in November when the October deliveries will be made in two equal instalments.
UEFA Euro 2016 Qualifying Tickets
Ian has access to early bird tickets for the following England football matches at Wembley with a discount of £5.00 per ticket of up to four tickets for each match with more available without the discount, if required.
England v San Marino 9th October 2014
England v Slovenia 15th November 2014
England v Lithuania 27th March 2015
If interested please email before Tuesday 26th to ensure the pick of the areas to sit.