Foresight Assessment of Markets for Future-Oriented Technologies: the Case of Nanotechnology

<Title>:

Foresight Assessment of Markets for Future-Oriented Technologies: The Case of Nanotechnology Foresight in Russia

Purpose

The purpose of this exercise was to provide scenarios for future developments in nanotechnologies and nano-enabled products in terms of their application and relevant markets within a 20-year time horizon. This was to provide The Russian (State) Corporation of Nanotechnologies with a decision support tool to guide the commercialisation and to prioritise research and development in nano-industry. It was also intended to develop multi-methodology Foresight activities and to maintain networks of expertise within relevant fields.

Page 1 of 4

<Title>:

<Background & Context>

Market perspectives of future oriented technologies can hardly be estimated by methods of traditional quantitative forecasts based on previous observable data. Unlike mature goods, beginners have short market history or no market history at all. Besides new technologies and products have unpredictable life cycle, especially in breakthrough cases that lead to disruptive changes. New heuristics like Foresight methods should thus be applied to market studies in future oriented fields.

In 2008-2010 Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge supported by Rusnano (The Russian Corporation of Nanotechnologies) conducted Foresight studies of markets for technologies and products whose benefit-giving properties may be substantially improved by implementation of nanotechnologies.

Future perspectives of each market cluster were estimated within three scenarios (basic, pessimistic and optimistic). Configuration of scenarios considered international, national and industrial market environment.

The exercise involved over 600 Russian and foreign experts with both technical and economic background. 17 per cent represent manufacturing businesses and 83 per cent are members of research institutions in various fields.

The exercise used multi-methodology Foresight technology: integration of the Delphi method and scenario writing.

Page 1 of 4

<Title>:

Page 1 of 4

<Title>:

< FTA Process >

The exercise was the first large-scale survey of this type in the field of nanotechnologies in Russia. It focused at market strengths and weaknesses of Russian nanotechnology industry in mid- and long-term. Comparative studies of products/technologies and their clusters discovered commercial perspectives both in Russia and abroad and generated policy recommendations.

The Delphi method was extended both in-width and in-depth in comparison with similar projects (e.g. 8th Technology Foresight Survey in Japan). The exercise began with the list of over 1100 topics created and verified by our most advanced experts. Instead of general aggregated topics that are subjects for most Foresight exercises we studied particular and thoroughly specified products and technologies. Every topic exhibited:

• narrow and concrete tecnology/product specification;
• input of nanotechnologies;
• advantages over non nano-enabled analogues;
• benefit-giving properties;
• future-oriented field of application;
• quantitative target characteristics.

Our studies were both product and process-oriented since topics covered both nanotechnologies and nano-enabled products.

The next step was the Delphi survey itself for which we elaborated the original questionnaire. We received 525 responses where experts assessed maturity, competitive advantages and market perspectives of topics within their field of expertise.

The survey data were processed with the set of original quantitative analytical tools elaborated by Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge. Our investigative activities resulted in analytical matrices combining aggregate indices of development and of market relevance attributed to products/technologies as well as to their clusters. Position within the matrix reflects consolidates such characteristics as leading country, technological and market profiles of products and their clusters, perspective fields for mass production, zones of excessive risk and gaps between demand for and supply of nanotechnologies and nano-enabled products. All items were grouped in 13 technological clusters and 21 market clusters according to their positioning.

The Delfi method was then coupled with scenario writing. Foresight of market clusters was built top-down. For each market cluster we started from its global perspectives, than we constructed scenarios of national market developments and finished with industry-specific analysis. Within every scenario we revealed market drivers and barriers, forecasted quantity and structure of future demand and proposed differentiated strategies for main market segments. The work finished with cross-section market analysis.

The expert team represented all leading organisations and institutions associated with nanoindustry in Russia. Some experts were proposed by The Russian Corporation for Nanotechnologies (Rusnano), others were selected among specialists widely known for their publications and other activities in related areas. All candidates were agreed with Rusnano.

<Content and Findings>

Page 1 of 4

<Title>:

Page 1 of 4

<Title>:

Output & Impacts

The practical use of the project methodology and analytical tools proved there relevance for further Foresight studies in technology-intensive areas.

Our main addressee was our customer, i.e. Rusnano. The results are expected to contribute to:

• setting strategic priorities for the future research and technology policy,
• promotion of demand for nano-enabled products,
• project appraisal,
• technology road mapping,
• making calls for R&D projects.

Results are also useful for potential applicants for funding from Rusnano.

Both Rusnano and Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge intend to foster dialogue among main stakeholders in the innovation process in Russian nano-industry. Our outcomes are now disseminated among interested government bodies, professional associations and the research community. A series of public discussions were organised for main stakeholders in various formats. Conclusions and recommendations are generally accepted.

<Content and Findings>

Page 1 of 4

<Title>:

Page 1 of 4

<Title>:

<Outcome & Evaluation>

The exercise resulted in a package of policy recommendations. We concluded that better developed and highly demanded technologies/products are attractive for private investment and need only laissez-faire policy. Good market perspectives coupled with immaturity of R&D and/or production technology should be actively supported by government through various tools that can be further specified on the basis of Delphi outputs. Risky areas may therefore be the fields for pinpoint venture investment (procedures for relevant risk evaluation have been also a subject of the project methodology). In-depth case studies are sound for technologies/products that represent emerging fields with strong market expectations; they are associated with high risks due to their uniqueness, but public support at the pre-competitive stage could promote potential growth and gain competitive advantages in the long-run.

From today’s point of view we suppose that we have not yet explored the full potential of our methodology. It seems to open up more analytical opportunities for cross-product and cross-cluster analysis that go far beyond aggregation and comparison of expert assessments of separate topics. We also expect it to be effective in other future-oriented technology fields.

We anticipate our outputs to influence the long-run vision of sustainable innovative growth in Russia. Its strategy is now under development by joint efforts of government bodies and research community.

Page 1 of 4

<Title>:

Page 1 of 4

<Title>:

<Sources and References>

References:

Miles I. and Keenan M. Practical Guide to Regional Foresight in the United Kingdom. Luxembourg: European Commission, 2002.

Keenan M. Identifying Emerging Generic Technologies at the National Level: the UK Experience // Journal of Forecasting, 2003, № 22(2–3). P. 129–160.

Cuhls K., Kuwahara T. Outlook for Japanese and German Future Technology. Comparing Technology Forecast Surveys. Physica-Verlag, 1994.

Page 1 of 4

<Title>: FTA Brief No. <N>

Page 1 of 4