Effects of Global Warming Lesson Plan

Assessment:ClimateChangepostquiz, graphicorganizers.

Extensions:This couldbedevelopedintoa fullresearchpaperwherestudents furtherinvestigatetheeffectsofclimatechangeandhowtocombatthem.

Homework:None.

Resources:

ClimateChangeQuiz

Foreachofthefollowingstatementscirclewhetheryouthinkitistrueorfalse.Afterreadingarticlesonclimatechangeyouwillreviewthesestatementsagainandseeif youranswershavechanged.

Pre-quizPost-quiz

AllergiesGettingWorse?BlameGlobalWarming?

Oneofthefewpotentiallypositiveeffectsofclimatechange,atleastintheshortterm,isthatincreasedconcen-trationsofcarbondioxideintheatmospheremayenhancethegrowthofplants.Thatcouldbegoodforagriculture—thoughwarmingtemperaturesandchangingrainpatternsinawarmerworldmightwipeoutthatadvantage.Butthereare

nounalloyedgiftsfromclimatechange.Recentresearchsuggeststhatglobalwarming

willalsoexacerbaterespiratoryallergies,ashigherCO2concentrationsleadtovastincreasesinragweedpollenproduction."There'snodenyingthere'sachange,"saysPaulRatner,animmunologistwiththeAmericanCollegeofAllergies."It'sdefinitelybadnewsforpeoplewhohaveallergies."

Asthmaandotherrespiratoryailmentsarealreadyontheriseinmuchoftheworld.TheWorldHealthOrganizationestimatesthat300millionpeoplegloballyhaveasthma,with250,000dyingfromthediseaseeachyear.Thatrateisupconsiderablyoverthepastfewdecades,andscientistssayanumberoffactorscouldbeatwork.Oneclearreasonisrisinglevelsofragweedpollen—whichcanbeconnecteddirectlytorisinglevelsofCO2.ResearchershaveshownrepeatedlythatelevatedlevelsofCO2stimu-lateweedstoproducepollenoutofproportionwiththeirgrowthrates—meaningyougetmorepollenperplant,whichmeansmoreallergies.Evenworse,itseemsthattheweediestspeciesseemtothrivedisproportionatelyinhighCO2environments.The waveofurbanizationinAmericaandmuchoftheworlddoesn'thelp—theurbanenvi-ronment,oftenhotterandwithmoreCO2thanruralareas,isragweedheaven."Urbanplaces,becauseofthebakingeffectofthatincreasedconcrete,definitelypollinatemore,"saysRatner.Itdoesn'thelpthatwarmingwillalsoincreasethe productionofground-levelozone,arespiratoryirritantthatworsensasthma.

Longergrowingseasonsinawarmerworldmayfurtherworsenallergies.AstudyinSeptember'sJournalofAllergyandClinicalImmunologyreporteddatafrom1982to2001showingthat,forexample,increasinglyearlypollinationoftheEuropeanoliveinSpainledtohigheroverallpollencounts,similartowhatisfoundinwarmerpartsof theMediterranean;comparableoutcomescanbeexpectedinothertemperatepartsoftheworldasclimatechangekicksin.Asimilareffectwillalsobefeltinthenorthwardshiftofwhatisknownasthehardinesszones—meaningthatnortherncountries whereallergieswereonceraremaynolongerbeassafe."Thoseborderlinenorthernregionswilldefinitelyfeelchanges,"saysRatner.

Thecausesofallergiesandrespiratorydisordersarecomplex,andscientistscannotpredictexactlyhowmuchimpactclimatechangewillhaveontheirglobalrates.Buttherecentdata—recordsonpollencountsrarelygobackmorethan20years—certainlywouldindicatethatwarmingwillonlymakethingsworse.So,whatcanbedonetohelpmillionsofsneezing,watery-eyedpatients?Asallergysufferersalreadyknow,notawholelot.ButanyactiontakentocontrolrisingCO2levelsmightatleasthelpstemtheincreaseinglobalallergyrates.Sofar,theglobalasthmaepidemicshowsnosignsofabating,andinawarmerworld,effectivetreatmentsforallergieswilllikelybecomeevenmoreimportant.OneoptionforallergysuffersmightbetostartagitatingforactiontoreduceCO2emissions—afterall,theonlythingyouhavetoloseisyourbreath.

Source:TimeMagazine,BryanWalsh,September15,2008.

AllergiesandClimateChange

1.Howmanypeoplecurrentlyhaveasthma?

2.Howmanypeoplediefromasthmaeachyear?

3.Whatisonereasonfortherecentincreaseofpeoplewithasthma?

4.Whataretwocausesmentionedinthearticlefortheriseinragweedpollen?

5.Whatisasecondreasonthatasthmawillbeworseifaveragetemperaturescontinuetoincrease?

6.Whatwillwarmertemperaturesdotogrowingseasons?Howwillthisaffectallergies?

7.Whatsolutionisofferedtocombatthisissue?Howwillthishelp?

HowClimateChangeWillImpactAnimals

ThethreatstowildlifeontheAfricanislandofMadagascararemanifold:rampantdeforestationthathasstrippedmostoftheislandofitsoriginalforestcover,leavingawasteland;ahumanpopulationthatisgrowingat3%ayear,straining naturalresourcesandhuntinganimalsforfood,especiallyMadagascar'semblematiclemurs;extractiveindustry,includ-inganickelminenotfarfromanationalparkthatcouldbecometheworld'sbiggest.

There'sanotherdangerthat'sinvisible,butmaybemoredangerousthantheothersputtogether:climatechange.Globalwarmingwilldotowildlifewhatitmaydotohumans. Astheclimatechanges,animalsmaybeforcedtomoveoutofthehabitatsthey'reac-customedto—likehumanrefugees."Globalwarmingissomethingthatallconservation-istsareworriedabout,"saysRussellMittermeier,thepresidentofConservationInter-national."Ithasthepossibilitytoundoalotoftheworkwe'vedone."

Whiletheimpactofclimatechangeonhumanpopulationsislikelytobedire,we're prettygoodatadaptingtochangeoverall.Animals,however,arenot.Whentheirhabitatschangeirrevocably—whentherainforestdriesuporcoolmountainsintropicalzonesheatup—animalsmaysimplygoextinct.ArecentstudyinSciencedemonstrateshowthatcanhappen.RobertColwell,anevolutionarybiologistattheUniversityofConnecticut,analyzeddatafromnearly2,000speciesofplants,insectsandfungiinthetropics,whereorganismsoftenlacktheabilitytoescapewarmingtemperaturesbygoingnorthorsouth;instead,theyhavetogoupinelevationtofindcoolertemperatures.Colwellfoundthataspopulationsinlowlandareasmoveup,theytendnottobereplaced.Thatmeansthatwemayseeareductioninoverallbiodiversityandwhatscientistscall"speciesrichness."Meanwhile,speciesthatalreadyliveatthehighestelevationshave noplacetogo,exceptperhapstoextinction.Caseinpoint:theGoldenToad,whichlivedinthehigh-altitudecloudforestsofCostaRicaandsuddenlywentextinct.Itsdisap-pearancemaybedueinparttowarming,whichmadeitshabitatunlivable.

Thetoadmaybethefirstanimalwhoseextinctionscientistswilllinktoglobalwarming,butitcertainlywon'tbethelast.Lastyear,theU.N.'sIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangeestimatedthatifglobaltemperaturesincreasemorethantwotothreedegreesFarenheitabovecurrentlevels—whichseemsquitepossible,givencurrenttrendsincarbonemissions—uptoone-thirdofthespeciesonEarthcouldbeatrisk forextinction."We'realreadyseeingnaturereactbadlytoclimatechange,"saysLarrySchweiger,thepresidentoftheNationalWildlifeFederation."We'rechangingtherulesofthegame."

Foronething,thegranddesignofconservationismistocreatereserves,protectedareaslikenationalparkswherewildlifecanlivefreefromtheimpactofhumanpopula-tions.Thatstrategyhasbeenoverwhelminglysuccessful,butconservationistsnow fearthatglobalwarmingcouldmakethosereservesmeaningless,ifanimalsthatareaccustomedtoadifferentclimatecan'tsurviveinthem."We'reusedtofocusingonprotectingrealestate,"saysSchweiger."Nowwehavetobeabletomakesureanimalscanmovetosafeareas."

First,conservationistssay,weneedtodoeverythingwecantoslowcarbonemissionsandreducetheimpactofclimatechange."That'sprioritynumberone,"saysMitter-meier.Butsomedegreeofwarmingisinevitable,soconservationistshavetoprepare.Thatmeanscreatingnotjustreserves,butsafenaturecorridorsthatwouldallowwild-lifetomigrateinthefaceofrisingtemperatures.Anothermethodistotrytocon-nectexistingreservesthroughreforestation—atechniquealreadyunderwayinMada-gascar,wherethegovernmentislookingtovastlyincreasethetotalamountofpro-tectedland.What'scertainisthatweneedtoact.Ifwedon't,saysSchweiger,"Climatechangecouldunderminetheconservationworkofwholegenerations."

Source:TimeMagazine,BryanWalsh,October13,2008.

ClimateChangeandAnimals

1.Whatwillclimatechangeforceanimalstodo?Howwillclimatechangeimpactanimals?

2.Whataretwoexamplesofhabitatschangingbeyondrepair?

3.Whatarethetwopossibilitiesforanimalsiftheirhabitatchanges?

4.Whatistheconcernaboutanimalsmovinghabitats?

5.Whathappenstotheanimalsatthehighestelevations?

6.Whatdoscientistspredictwillhappeniftemperaturescontinuetorise?

7.Whatchallengesdoesclimatechangeofferconservationists?

8.Whatsolutionsareofferedtocombatthisissue?Howwilleachofthesehelp?

CanClimateChangeMakeUsSicker?

Whatdowetalkaboutwhenwetalkaboutglobalwarming?It'llgethotter,that'sasafebet;polaricecapswillbemelting,andwildlifethatcan'tadapttowarmertempera-turescouldbeonthewayout.Butwhatdoesitreallymeanforthehealthofus,thehumanrace?It'saquestionthatremainssurprisinglydifficulttoanswer—researchintoclimatechange'simpactsonhumanhealthhavelagged

behindotherareasofclimatescience.Butwhatwedoknowhasscientistsanddoctors

increasinglyworried—arisingriskofdeathfromheatwaves,thespreadoftropicaldiseaseslikemalariaintopreviouslyuntouchedareas,worsenedwater-bornediseases."Whenwethinkaboutclimatechange,wethinkabouticecapsandbiodiversity,butweforgetabouthumanhealth,"saysDr.JonathanPatz,aprofessorofenvironmentalstudiesandpopulationhealthsciencesattheUniversityofWisconsin-Madison."Thereareahugenumberofhealthoutcomesthatareclimatesensitive."

TheWorldHealthOrganization(WHO)andotherglobalhealthbodiesareworkingtoremindusofthatfact.OnMarch31theAmericanPublicHealthAssociation(APHA)launcheditsfirstblueprintforcombatingthehealthimpactsofclimatechange,andonApril7,WHOwilldedicateitsannualWorldHealthDaytotheintersectionbetweendiseaseandglobalwarming.Themessageisthatsevereclimatechangecouldfunda-mentallyweakenglobalpublichealth,thatdoctorsneedtobereadytodealwiththeconsequences—andthatthereisamoralcasetobemadeforreducingcarbonemis-sionstosavefuturelives."Ifyoulookatclimatechangeoverthelongterm,itwillprofoundlyaffectthepillarsofpublichealth:water,sanitation,airqualityandsuffi-cientfood,"saysDr.DavidHeymann,AssistantDirector-GeneralforHealthSecurityandEnvironmentatWHO."Thefactisthathumanhealthshouldbeatthecenterofthepoliticaldebateonclimatechange,butrightnowthat'snotthecase."

Thefirststeptomakingthatcaseisunderstandingexactlywhatwarmertempera-tureswilldotousandourdiseases—andfewscientistsknowmoreaboutthetopicthanPatz,amemberoftheUN'sNobelPrize–winningIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC).Astemperaturesincrease,andhotter,driersummersbecomethenorminregionsthatwereoncetemperate,powerfulheatwaves—liketheoneinEuropein2003,whichkilledanestimated35,000people—willtakeatoll.Atthe sametime,climatemodelssuggestthatraincouldbecomelessfrequentoverallbutmoreintensewhenitdoesfall,leadingtoadoublewhammy.Longerandfiercerdroughtsinsomeareaswillworsenhunger,butsevererainstormscarryanincreasedriskofwater-bornediseaseslikecholera."It'snotjustwarming,it'sclimatechange,"saysPatz."It'schangingtheaircycle,creatingmoreextremeflooding,moreextremedroughts."

Forsomediseases,climatechangewillbeboon.Takemalaria—rightnow,theinsect-bornediseaseismostlyconfinedtohottropicalareas,whichiswhyyoudon'tneedtotakequininewhenyou'rehikingthroughCentralPark.Butiftemperaturesincrease,themosquitoesthatcarrythemalariaparasitewillbeabletoexpandtheirrange,whilemoreintenserainstormswillgivethemmoreplacestobreed.AreportthisyearbyAustralia'sCenterforEpidemiologyandPublicHealthestimatedthatbetween20to80millionmorepeoplewillbelivinginmalarialregionsby2080,astheparasiteexpandsitsrange;anotherstudyreleasedonApril3byBritishdoctorsraisedthepossibilitythatinsect-bornediseases—virtuallyunknowninthecoolU.K.—couldhittheBritishislesthanksto climatechange."There'srealworryaboutmalaria,"saysHeymann."Malariabecomesamorethreateningdiseaseasitspreadstonewareaswherepeoplelackimmunitybecausetheyhaven'thaditbefore."

WHOandotherbodiesarepushingtostrengthentheglobalpublichealthsysteminpreparationforthechangesthatglobalwarmingmightbring.Thatmeansreadyingsocie-tiestodealwithheatwaves—ensuringthatthemostvulnerableelderlyaren'tleftontheirown—andimprovingdefensesagainstvector-bornediseases,withanti-malarianetsandmedicineslikeartemisinin.Suchpreparationswillbeespeciallyneededinthosepartsofthedevelopingworld—sub-SaharanAfrica,southAsia—thatwillbearthebruntofclimatechange.ButPatzwouldalsoliketoseepublichealthtacklecarbonemissionsdirectly,cuttingoffglobalwarmingatthesource.Forhim,carbondioxideshouldbetreatedasapollutantthatdamageshumanhealth,albeitindirectly,andit'sinourmedicalintereststoreduceit."Energypolicybecomesoneandthesameaspublichealthpolicy,"saysPatz.

Policiesthatcutcarbonemissionscanhaveadirectpositiveimpactonhumanhealthnow aswell.Imaginehowmuchbetteroffourenvironmentandourcholesterollevelsmightbeifmoreofusbikedtoworkratherthandrove—orifcityplannersputgreateremphasisondesigningmorewalkablecommunitiesandensuringsustainablepublictransportation. Buttherealityisthatclimatechangeishappeningtoday,andwillbeworsetomorrow,evenifwemanagetopulltogetheraglobalefforttoreducecarbonemissions,whichseemslesslikelyandmoredifficulteveryday.(AcommentaryintheApril3editionofNaturear-guedthatthetechnologicalchangesneededtodecarbonizeenergycouldbemuchharderthanwethought;meanwhile,overinBangkok,diplomatsattheU.N.climateconference lastweekmadelittleprogressonhammeringoutthesuccessortoKyoto.)Ifthereismoneytobespentonpreparingtheworldforthehealthimpactsofclimatechange,thepriorityshouldbeadaptingourpublichealthsystemtoawarmerworld,versusspendingoncarbonmitigation.Globalwarmingtosomedegreewillbeinevitable—buthumansufferingneedn'tbe,ifwe'resmartenoughtoprepare.

Source:TimeMagazine,BryanWalsh,April4,2008.

ClimateChangeandDisease

1.Whatarethethreeareasofconcernthatdoctorsandscientistshaveabout humanhealthasaresultofclimatechange?

2.Whatarethepillarsofpublichealth?

3.Howwilleachofthepillarsbeaffectedbyclimatechange?

4.Howdoesclimatechangecauseheatwaves?Whatwillbetheeffectoftheseheatwaves?

5.Howwillrainfallaffecthumanhealth?

6.Explainhowclimatechangewillaffectmalaria.

7.Whatsolutionsareofferedtothisissue?Howwilleachofthesehelp?

WhyGlobalWarmingMayBeFuelingAustralia’sFires

Theraginginfernosthathaveleftmorethan160peopledeadinsouthernAustraliaburnedwithsuchspeedthattheyresembledlessawildfirethanamassiveaerialbombing.Manyvictimscaughtintheblazeshadnotimetoescape;theirhousesdisintegratedaroundthem,andtheyburnedtodeath.Asfirefightersbattletheflamesandpolicebegintoinvestigatepossiblecasesofarson

aroundsomeofthefires,therewillsurelybedebatesoverthewisdomofAustralia'sstandardpolicyofadvisingresidentstoeitherfleeafireearlyorstayintheirhomesand

waititout.JohnBrumby,thepremierofthefire-hitAustralianstateofVictoria,toldalocalradiostationonMondaythat"peoplewillwanttoreviewthat...Thereisnoquestionthattherewerepeoplewhodideverythingright,putinplacetheirfireplan,andit[didn't]matter—theirhousewasjustincinerated."

Althoughthewildfirescaughtsomanyvictimsbysurpriselastweekend,therehasbeennoshortageofdistantearly-warningsigns.The11thchapterofthesecondworkinggroupofthe2007IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange,forexample,warnedthatfiresinAustraliawere"virtuallycertaintoincreaseinintensityandfrequency"becauseofsteadilywarmingtemperaturesoverthenextseveraldecades.Researchpublishedin2007bytheAustraliangovernment'sownCommonwealthScientificandIndustrialResearchOrganizationreportedthatby2020,therecouldbeupto65%more"extreme"fire-dangerdayscom-paredwith1990,andthatby2050,underthemostseverewarmingscenarios,therecould bea300%increaseinsuchdays."[Thefires]areasoberingreminderoftheneedfor thisnationandthewholeworldtoactandputataprioritytheneedtotackleclimatechange,"AustralianGreenPartyleaderBobBrowntoldtheSkyNews.

DestructivewildfiresarealreadycommoninAustralia,andit'snothardtoseewhyclimatechangewouldincreasetheirfrequency.Thedriestinhabitedcontinentontheplanet,Aus-traliahaswarmed0.9°Csince1950,andclimatemodelspredictthecountrycouldwarmfur-therby2070,upto5°Cover1990temperatures,ifglobalgreenhouse-gasemissionsgoun-checked.Beyondasimpleriseinaveragetemperatures,climatechangewillalsoleadtoanincreaseinAustralia'sextremeheatwavesanddroughts.SouthwesternAustraliaisalreadyinthegripofaprolongeddroughtthathasdecimatedagricultureandledtowidespreadwaterrationing;theregionisexpectedtoseelongerandmoreextremedryperiodsinthefutureasaresultofsteadywarming.It'simportanttoacknowledgethatnosingleweathereventcanbedefinitivelycausedbyclimatechange—andit'spossiblethatthecurrentinfernoinAustraliamighthavebeenasintenseanddeadlyevenwithoutthewarmingofthepastseveraldecades.Policearebeginningtosuspectthatmanyofthefiresmayhavebeendeliberatelyset,andthesheerincreaseinthenumberofhomesbuiltinfire-dangerzonesinsouthernAustraliatodayputsmorepeopleinharm'sway,raisingthepotentialdeathtoll.

Still,heatwavesanddroughtsetthetableforwildfires,andtemperaturesintheworst-hitareashavebeenover110°F(43°C)whilehumidityhasbottomedoutnearzero.Climatechangewillcontinuetobeathreatmultiplierforforestfires.

That'sonemorereasonwhytheworldmustworktogethertoreduceglobalcarbonemissionstominimizetheimpactofclimatechange.Thetroubleis,though,CO2cutswon'tbeenough.AsarecentpaperintheProceedingsoftheNationalAcademyofSciencepointsout,evenifwearesuccessfulincuttingcarbonemissionsrapidly—hardlyaneasytask—themomentumofclimatechangewillcontinueforcenturies. Thatmeansourabilitytoadapttotheimpactsofwarming,includingmoreaggressiveresponsestowildfireslikethoseinAustralia,willbecomeallthemorecritical,lestnaturaldisastersturnintohumancatastrophes.Butitalsomeansthattheworldwe'vebecomeaccustomedtowillchange,perhapsirrevocably.ThewildfiresinsouthernAustraliaarealreadytheworstinthenation'shistory—buttheysurelywon'tbe

thelast.

Source:TimeMagazine,BryanWalsh,February9,2009.

ClimateChangeandFires

1.Whywillfiresincreaseinfrequencyandintensity?

2.Whatdoesthefutureholdforthenumberoffire“extremedanger”days?

3.Explainhowrisingtemperaturesleadtomorefiresworldwide.

4.Whatsolutionsareofferedtocombatthisissue?Howwillthesehelp?

5.HowcanthisinformationbeappliedtoSouthernCalifornia?

WhyGlobalWarmingPortendsaFoodCrisis

Itcanbedifficultinthemiddleofwinter—especiallyifyouliveinthefrigidNortheasternU.S.,asIdo—toremainconvincedthatglobalwarmingwillbesuchabadthing.Beyondthefactthatpeoplepreferwarmthtocold,there'sareasontheworld'spopulationisclusteredintheTropicsandsubtropics:warmerclimatesusuallymeanlongerandrichergrowingseasons.Soit'seasytoimaginethatona

warmerglobe,thedamageinflictedbymorefrequentandsevereheatwaveswould

bebalancedbytheagriculturalbenefitsofwarmertemperatures.

Acomfortingthought,exceptforonething:it'snottrue.AstudypublishedintheJan.9issueofScienceshowsthatfarfromcompensatingforthedamagesassociatedwithclimatechange(heavierandmorefrequentstorms,increasingdesertification,sea-levelrise),hottertemperatureswillseriouslydiminishtheworld'sabilitytofeeditself.DavidBattisti,anatmosphericscientistattheUniversityofWashington,andRosamondNaylor,directoroftheProgramforFoodSecurityandtheEnvironmentatStanfordUniversity,analyzeddatafrom23climatemodelsandfoundamorethan90%chancethatbytheendofthecentury,averagegrowing-seasontemperatureswouldbehotterthanthemostextremelevelsrecordedinthepast.

Thatmeansthatbarringaswiftandsuddenreductioningreenhouse-gasemissions,bytheendofthecenturyanaverageJulydaywillalmostcertainlybehotterthanthehottestheatwavesweexperiencenow.Andtheextremeheatwillwiltourcrops.BattistiandNaylorlookedattheeffectthatmajorheatwaveshavehadonagricul-tureinthepast—liketheruthlessheatinWesternEuropeduringthesummerof2003—andfoundthatcropyieldshavesuffereddeeply.InItaly,maizeyieldsfell36%in2003,comparedwiththepreviousyear,andinFrancetheyfell30%.Similareffectswereseenduringamajorheatwavein1972,whichdecimatedfarmsintheformerSovietUnion,helpingpushgrainpricestoworryinglyhighlevels.Ifthosetrendsholdinthefuture,theresearchersestimatethathalftheworld'spopulationcouldfaceaclimate-inducedfoodcrisisby2100."I'mveryconcerned,"saysNaylor."How arewegoingtofeedaworldof8or9billionwiththeeffectsofclimatechange?"

It'struethatastemperatureswarm,thereislikelytobeatemporarybeneficialeffectonagriculture.Likepeople,plantsgenerallypreferwarmthtocold,andtheymayflourishwithrisinglevelsofCO2.ButresearchfromWolframSchlenkeratColumbiaUniversityshowsthat,asaveragetemperaturescontinuetowarm,thosebenefitsdwindleandeventuallyreverse,andcropyieldsbegintodecline."Itsimplybecomestoohotforthegrowingplants,"saysNaylor."Theheatdamagesthecrops'abilitytoproduceenoughyield."

What'smore,intheirstudy,BattistiandNaylorlookedonlyattheeffectofhighertemperatures—notatthepossibleeffectofchangingprecipitationpatterns.Yetmanyclimatologistsbelievethatglobalwarmingwillmakedryareasdryerandfurtherdamagefarming,whichisespeciallydirenewsforsub-SaharanAfrica,aregionthatalreadystruggleswithheatwaves,droughtsandfaminesevenaspopulationcontinuestogrow."ClimatechangeisgoingtobeamajorconcernforAfrica,"saysNteranyaSanginga,directoroftheTropicalSoilBiologyandFertilityInstituteoftheInterna-tionalCenterforTropicalAgricultureinNairobi."Wecouldlosewholegrowingseasons."

Withthesefrighteningpredictionsinmind,weneedtotrytoheat-proofouragricul-ture.Thatcanbeaccomplishedbyusingcropsthathave provedresistanttoextremeheat—likesorghumormillet—tobreedhybrid-cropvarietiesthataremorecapableofwithstandinghighertemperatures.We'llneedtodropanysqueamishnessaboutconsuminggeneticallymodifiedcrops.Unlesswecantapthepowerofgenetics,we'llneverfeedourselvesinawarmerworld.Butwe'llneedtoactquickly.Itcantakeyearstobreedmoreheat-resistantspecies,andinvestmentinagriculturalresearchhasshriveledinrecentyears.

WealsoneedtofocusonimprovingtheagriculturalproductivityofthosepartsoftheworldthathavebeenleftbehindbytheGreenRevolution—likeAfrica,whereaveragecropyieldsperacreremainwellbelowthoseinAsiaortheWest.OnesimplewayistoincreasetheamountoffertilizeravailabletoAfricanfarmers.Sanginganotesthatabout440lbs.(200kg)ofnitrogenfertilizerisgenerallyneededtogrowfivetons(5,000kg)ofmaize,buttheaverageAfricanfarmercanaffordonly8lbs.offertil-izer.WecanalsoworkonsafeguardingthedegradedsoilsofAfrica,wherealmost55%ofthelandisunsuitableforanykindofcultivatedagriculture.Helpisonthe way:theAfricanSoilInformationServiceislaunchingareal-timedigitalmapofsub-SaharanAfrica'ssoils,whichshouldallowfarmersandpolicymakerstomakebetter useofthecontinent'sagriculturalresources."Farmersneedtoknowwhentoinvestandwhentoholdback,"saysSanginga,whoisinvolvedwiththemappingproject.

There'salimit,however,toourabilitytoadapttoclimatechange.Weneedtoreducecarbonemissionssharplyandsoon.Ifwefail,awarmerfuturewon'tjustbeuncom-fortable;itwillbedownrightfrightening."Weneedtowakeupandtakecareofthis,"saysNaylor."Wewon'thaveenoughfoodtofeedtheworldtoday,letalonetomor-row."

Source:TimeMagazine,BryanWalsh,January13,2009.

ClimateChangeandFoodSupply

1.Whatdoeswarmerweathernormallymean?

2.Howisglobalwarmingdifferentfromwarmerweather?

3.Whateffecthavemajorheatwaveshadonagricultureinthepast?Giveanexample.

4.Whatwillhappentofoodprices?Why?

5.WhatistheoutlookforagricultureinAfricaiftemperaturescontinuetorise?

6.Whatsolutionsareofferedinthearticle?Howwilleachofthesehelp?

TheDireFateofForestsinaWarmerWorld

It'snoteasytokillafull-growntree—especiallyonelikethepiñonpine.Thehardyevergreenisadaptedtolifeinthehot,parchedAmericanSouthwest,soittakesmorethanalittle dryspelltoaffectit.Infact,itrequiresaonce-in-a-centuryeventliketheextendeddroughtofthe1950s,whichscientists

nowbelieveledtowidespreadtreemortalityintheFourCornersareaofUtah,Colorado,NewMexicoandArizona.

So,whenanotherdroughthittheareaaround2002,researchersweresurprisedtoseeupto10%ofthepiñonpinesdieoff,eventhoughthatdryspellwasmuchmilderthantheonebefore.Thedifferencein2002wasthefivedecadesofglobalwarmingthathadtranspiredsincethedroughtinthe1950s.ThatledterrestrialecologistsattheUniversityofArizona(UA)toposethequestion,withtemperaturessettorisesharplyoverthecomingcenturyifclimatechangegoesunchecked,whatimpactwillithaveonthepiñonpine?

Unsurprisingly,theoutcomedoesn'tlookgood.InanewstudypublishedApril13in theProceedingsoftheNationalAcademyofSciences(PNAS),scientistsatUAfoundthatwater-deprivedpiñonpinesraisedintemperaturesabout7°Fahrenheit(4°Cel-sius)abovecurrentaveragesdied28%fasterthanpinesraisedintoday'sclimate. It'sthefirststudytoisolatethespecificimpactoftemperatureontreemortalityduringdrought—anditindicatesthatinawarmerworldtreesarelikelytobesignifi-cantlymorevulnerabletothethreatofdroughtthantheyaretoday."Thisraisessomefundamentalquestionsabouthowclimatechangeisgoingtoaffectforests,"saysDavidBreshears,aprofessoratUA'sSchoolofNaturalResourcesandaco-authorofthePNASpaper."Thepotentialforlotsofforestdie-offisreallythere."

ThePNASstudy,ledbyHenryAdams,adoctoralstudentatUA'secologyandevolu-tionarybiologydepartment,alsoconfirmsthathottertemperaturesactuallysuffocatetreesindrytimes.Piñonpinesrespondtodroughtbyclosingtheporesintheirneedle-likeleavestostopwaterloss.Thatkeepsthemfromgoingthirsty,butitalsopreventsthemfrombreathinginthecarbondioxidetheyneedtolive—andeventually,thedrought-stressedtreessimplysuffocate.

ThehigherlevelsofatmosphericCO2thatwouldlikelybeseeninawarmerfuturewon'tmakemuchofadifferenceeither—ifthepineneedles'poresareclosedtopreventwaterloss,CO2simplywon'tgetin.Evenmoreworrisome,thePNASstudydoesn'ttakeintoaccountpossiblechangesinprecipitationpatternsinawarmerfuture,whichmanyclimatemodelssaycouldbedrier,exacerbatingtheimpactsofhighertemperatures."Wecanenvisionthelandscapegettinghammeredoverandoveragain,"saysBreshears.

Thestudytookadvantageoftheuniversity'suniqueBiosphere2researchfacility. The7.2million–cubic-footdome—famousforanexperimentintheearly1990swheneightpeoplelivedinsideitfortwoyears—allowsscientiststorecreatealmostanyclimateonEarth.AdamsandhiscollaboratorskepttwogroupsofpiñontreesinsideBiosphere2innearlyidenticalconditions.Onekeydifference:fortheexperimentalgroup,researchersrampedupthetemperature7°Fahrenheit(4°Celsius),theroughmidpointoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange'sbusiness-as-usualpredic-tionsforwarminginthiscentury."Wethoughttemperaturemightplayabigrole,butthatwasspeculationuntilwecouldconductanexperiment,"saysAdams."ThegreatthingaboutBiosphere2isthatitallowedustotestthisout."

Adams'paperisthelatestinanumberofrecentstudiesthatpaintagrimfatefor theworld'sforestsifwarmingisn'tslowed.AmajorSciencestudypublishedinJanuaryfoundwidespreadincreaseintreemortalityratesinthewesternU.S.,thanksinpart toregionalwarmingtrendsandgrowingwaterscarcity.Anotherstudypublishedlastmonth,alsoinScience,foundthateventheseeminglylimitlessAmazonrainforest couldbehighlyvulnerabletodrought.AndsincelivingtreessuckupCO2fromtheat-mosphere,massivetreemortalityduetowarmingcouldproduceafeedbackeffect,furtherintensifyingclimatechange.Intheend,wemightneedabiggerBiosphere2,becausewe'reontracktoscrewupBiosphere1—otherwiseknownastheEarth.

Source:TimeMagazine,BryanWalsh,April14,2009.

GlobalWarmingandForests

1.Whatwasthedifferencebetweenthedroughtsinthe1950sandthedroughtin2002 thatthepiñontreeswereexposedto?

2.Howdidthisaffectthepiñontreepopulation?

3.Whateffectdoesanincreaseintemperaturehaveontreemortalitywhenexposedtodrought-likeconditions?

4.Whatistheimplicationforforeststhatcanbederivedfromthestudyonpiñontrees?

5.Howdopiñontreesrespondtodrought?

6.Howdoesthisresponserelatetocarbondioxidelevels?

7.Nametwosolutionsthatcanbeimpliedfromthisarticle.Howwilleachofthesehelp?

IsGlobalWarmingWorseningHurricanes?

Itcouldbeasignofjusthowtraumatic2005'sHurricaneKatrinawasthatwhenHurricaneGustavfailedlastweektofullypulverizeNewOrleans,itwasnews.ThefalloutfromGustavwasrelativelylimited,butitwasstillamajorstorm,withmaximumsustainedwindsof110m.p.h.whenitmadeland-fallinLouisiana—strongenoughtocauseanestimated$20

billionindamages.AndGustavwon'tbethelastthisseason.HurricaneHannagath-eredstrengthintheAtlanticlastweek,andIkeisswirlingnotfarbehind,headednow

fortheU.S.That'sjustintheAtlantic,thismonth.LastMayinthePacific,themas-siveCycloneNargiskilledanestimated100,000peopleintheSoutheastAsiannationofBurma.

Allthesehurricanesinsuchashortperiodoftimebegsthequestion:arestormsgettingstronger,andifso,what'scausingit?AccordingtoanewpaperinNature,theanswerisyes—andglobalwarmingseemstobetheculprit.ResearchersledbyJamesElsner,ameteorologistatFloridaStateUniversity,analyzedsatellite-deriveddataoftropicalstormssince1981andfoundthatthemaximumwindspeedsofthestrongeststormshaveincreasedsignificantlyintheyearssince,withthemostnotableincreasesfoundintheNorthAtlanticandthenorthernIndianoceans.Theybelievethatrisingoceantemperatures—duetoglobalwarming—areoneofthemaincausesbehindthatchange."Thereisarobustsignalbehindtheshifttomoreintensehurricanes,"saysJudithCurry,chairoftheschoolofearthandatmosphericsciencesattheGeorgiaInstituteofTechnology.

Stormstendtorunonmulti-decadalcycles,soit'sdifficulttotellfromyeartoyearwhetherthenumberofhurricanesisreallyontherise.Sofar thatdoesn'tseemto bethecase,withtheoverallnumberofstormsworldwideholdingaboutsteady—infact,somescientistsarguethatwarmingmightactuallybringaboutareductionintheoverallfrequencyofstorms.ButtheNaturepaperarguesthatwarmersea-surfacetemperatureswillresultinstrongerstorms,becausehotteroceansmeanthedevelop-ingstormscandrawmorewarmair,whichpowersthestorm."Hurricanesaredrivenbythetransferofenergyfromtheoceantotheatmosphere,"saysKerryEmanuel,ameteorologistattheMassachusettsInstituteofTechnology."Aswaterwarms,theabilityofwatertoevaporategoesup,andagreaterevaporationratewillproduceamoreintensehurricane."

Sofar,tropicaloceantemperatureshaverisenbyabout0.5degreeCsince1970,whichcouldexplainthemorepowerfulstorms.TheNatureresearchersestimatethatevery 1degreeCincreaseinsea-surfacetemperaturewouldresultina31%increaseintheglobalfrequencyofcategory4and5storms.Giventhatcomputermodelsindicatethatoceantemperaturescouldrisebyupto2degreesCby2100,thosearescarycalcula-tions.It'sespeciallyworryingbecausethemostintensestormsdothemostdamagebyfar—severalminorstormscanequalthedamageofasingleseverehurricane."Thecategory1or2stormsdon'tdothatmuch,"saysEmanuel."It'sthe3and4stormsthatreallydothedamage,andwecouldseemoreofthem."

Noteveryoneagrees.Recordsofpasthurricanestrengtharelessthanperfect,soit'sdifficultforscientiststobesurethattherecentincreaseinstormintensityhasn'toccurredbefore,intheyearsbeforetheEarthstartedwarming.Andtheweather—asweallknow—iscomplicated,whichmeansthatit'sdifficulttomodelpreciselyhowfuturewarmingmightaffecttheformationofstorms.Climatemodelsworkwellonagloballevel,buttheycanrarelybeappliedaccuratelytoareassmallerthan200squaremiles—whichhappenstobelarger thanmanystorms."It'snotjustasimplerelation-shipwithsea-surfacetemperatures,"saysCurry."It'smorecomplicatedthanthat. Weneedthemodelstogetalotbetter."

Modelswillimprove,andovertime,weshouldhaveabetterideaofjusthowmuchwarm-ingmightintensifystorms,andhowthatprocessworks.Butthat'sasecondaryissue.Whetherornotwarmingwillcreatemoresuperstorms,weknowthathurricaneswillhappen,andweknowthattheywillstrikehumanpopulations.Thedifference,asmycolleagueAmandaRipleyrecentlypointedoutiswhetherornotwe'repreparedfor them.AspopulationnumbersandpropertydevelopmentgrowinvulnerableareasliketheGulfCoast,naturaldisasterswillgetworseevenwithouttheeffectofwarming.Think ofthedamagethathurricaneshavecausedevenwithoutthepossibleeffectofwarming:HurricaneCamillein1969,whichcausedover$9billionindamages,andHurricane Andrewin1992,whichcaused$38billionindamages.Nowimaginethosestormspoten-tiallyamplifiedbytheunpredictableeffectofglobalwarming.Weneedtobeprepared.GustavcausedfarlessdamagethanKatrinabecauseitwasaweakerstorm,yes,butalsobecausewewerereadythistime.Butwealsoneedtoreducecarbonemissionsandbluntclimatechange—orwemayexperiencestormsforwhichthereisnopreparation.

Source:TimeMagazine,BryanWalsh,September8,2008.

ClimateChangeandHurricanes

1.Arestormsgettingstronger?Ifso,whatiscausingthis?

2.Wherearetheincreasesinstormstrengthbeingseen?

3.Whatpowersstorms?

4.Howdoesglobalwarmingaffectthestrengthofthesestorms?

5.Whatsolutionsaresuggestedtocombatthisissue?Howwilleachofthesehelp?

CouldRisingSeasSwallowCalifornia'sCoast?

ImagineSanFranciscoAirportunderwater,orLongBeachHarborinLosAngeles,thesecondbusiestportinAmerica,washedaway.PictureOrangeCounty'sNewportBeachcom-pletelysubmergedundertheencroachingocean.

That'sthesoggyfuturethatcouldbeinplaceforCaliforniaattheendofthiscentury ifclimatechangecontinuesunabated.AccordingtothePacificInstitute,anenviron-mentalNGOthatspecializesinwater,uncheckedglobalwarmingmaycausetheworld'sseastorisemorethan4.6ft.(1.4m).TheCaliforniagovernmentcommissionedtheinstitute'sstudy,releasedonMarch11,oneofanumberofforthcomingreportsonhowclimatechangewillaffectthecoastalstateandoneofthemostdetailedanalysesyetonthelocalimpactofrisingseas.

ThePacificInstitutefoundthatby2100,anestimated480,000Californianswillbeatriskofincreasedflooding—almostdoublethenumbercurrentlylivingindisaster-proneareasofthestate—alongwithroads,schools,hospitalsandotherlow-lyingcoastalinfrastructure.Nearly$100billionworthofcoastalpropertycouldbeatrisk—andthecosttoprotectthatlandfromfloodingwilllikelybeinthebillions,evenifwedocontrolgreenhouse-gasemissions."Thischangeisinevitable,andit'sgoingtoalterthecharac-terofCalifornia'scoast,"saysHeatherCooley,aseniorresearchassociateatthe PacificInstituteandaco-authorofthestudy.

Thereport'swarningsaresostrikinginpartbecauseitassumesamuchhighersea-levelrisethanpreviousstudies.The1.4mfigureusedinthePacificInstitutereport—whichcomesfromresearchbytheScrippsInstituteofOceanography—isconsiderably higherthantheestimatesputforthintheU.N.IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange's(IPCC)mostrecentassessmentin2007,whichprojectedasea-levelriseof18to59cmby2100.ButtheIPCCnumberswerebasedonolderdataandtookinto accountonlythethermalexpansionoftheseas.(Waterexpandsasitheats,sowarmerseasrise.) TheIPCCdidnotfactorinthepotentiallyfargreaterimpactofmeltingicecapsinGreenlandandAntarctica—Greenlandalonehasenoughicetoraisesealevelsbymorethan20ft.AtthetimeoftheIPCCreport,thepolaricesheetswereclearlymelting,butitwasn'tclearhowfasttheyweregoingorhowtheywouldrespondtorisingtemperaturesinthefuture.

Newresearchisclarifyingtheice-capquestionandtheresultsaresobering.ScientistsattheClimateChangeCongressinCopenhagenthisweekpresentedastudyestimatingthatsealevelscouldrisegloballyby1mormorebytheendofthecentury,withlargeregionaldifferencesaroundtheworld.Atthelowerendoftheestimate,scientistssayit'sunlikelythatseaswillriselessthan50cmevenifwecangetagriponcarbonemis-sions.

TherevisedpredictionsareduetobetterdataonmeltinginGreenlandandAntarcticaandfromglaciersaroundtheworld,whicharepouringwaterintotheoceansandcaus-ingthemtorise.Upto600millionpeopleincoastalareasaroundtheworldcouldbeatincreasedriskforflooding."Unlesswetakeurgentandsignificantmitigationactions,theclimatecouldcrossathresholdduringthe21stcenturycommittingtheworldtoasea-levelriseofmeters,"saysJohnChurch,anoceanographerattheCentreforAus-tralianWeatherandClimateResearchandoneofthestudy'sco-authors.

ThePacificInstitutereporttakesthatabstractnumberandshowswhatitwillmeanforthecities,streets,bridges,beachesandpowerplantsinAmerica'smostpopulous

—andvulnerable—state.Nearlyhalfamillionpeoplewillbeatriskforwhat'scalled

a100-yearfloodevent.Thatdoesn'tmeanafloodthathappensonceacentury,but

ratheradisasterthathasa1%chanceofhappeningeveryyear—whichmeansithasa26%chanceofhappeningoverthelifeofanaverage30-yearmortgage.Thevulner-abilityisconcentratedalongthecoastlineoftheBayArea,wherelargepartsofbothSanFranciscoandOaklandcouldbethreatenedwithextremefloodingbytheendofthecentury.EvenpartsofthePacificcoastlinethatmaybeshieldedfromfloodingcouldbeatriskforincreasederosion.Worse,aswithHurricaneKatrina,itwillbethepoorandthosewithoutinsurancewhowilllikelybearthebruntofthefloodingdamage."There'sthisnotionthatthoselivingonthecoastareallrichwithinsurance,"saysCooley."Butinfactthesepopulationsareoftenpoor,andtheywillbeparticularlyvulnerable."

ThebestwaytoprotectCalifornia'scoastwouldbetosharplyreducecarbonemis-sionsnowandhopetoaverttheworstofthewarming.Butevenifwedocutcarbonsoon,we'velockedinsea-levelrise,andweneedtobeginprotectingsensitivecoast-linesbetterthanwedidinNewOrleans.ThePacificInstitutestudysuggeststhatsome1,100milesofimprovedcoastaldefenses—includingdunesandseawalls—wouldbeneededtoprotectagainsta1.4msearise.Itwon'tbecheap—thecostwillbeatleast$14billionupfront,accordingtothePacificInstitute,withanadditional$1.4billionayearinmaintenancecosts.Buteventhatmightnotbeenough."Eventuallyyoucouldseephasedabandonmentofcertainareasthatwouldexperiencefloodingalot,"saysCooley.We'reusedtocontrollingtheeffectsofnature,butifwefailtocontrolclimatechange,wemayhavetosurrender.

Source:TimeMagazine,BryanWalsh,March11,2009.

ClimateChangeandSeaLevels

1.Howmuchcoulduncheckedglobalwarmingcausetheseastorise?

2.Howmuchwillitcosttoprotectcoastallandsfromflooding?

3.Whattwofactorsleadtotherisingsealevels?

4.Howmanypeopleworldwidewillbeatriskforcoastalfloodingbytheyear2100?

5.WhatimpactswilloccurinCaliforniaifclimatechangecontinues?

6.Whatsolutionsaresuggestedbythearticle?Howwilleachofthesehelp?

ALastWarningonGlobalWarming

Thelanguageofscience,likethatoftheUnitedNations,isbynaturecautiousandmeasured.Thatmakesthediretoneofthejust-releasedfinalreportfromthefourthassessmentoftheU.N.'sIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC),anetworkofthousandsofinternationalscientists,allthemorestriking.Globalwarmingis“unequivocal”.Climatechangewillbring"abruptand

irreversiblechanges”.Thereport,asynthesisforpoliticiansculledfromthreeotherIPCCpanelsconvenedthroughouttheyear,readlikewhatitis:afinalwarningtohumanity.

"Todaytheworld'sscientistshavespokenclearly,andwithonevoice,"saidU.N.Secretary-GeneralBanKiMoon,whoattendedthepublicationofthereportinValencia,Spain. Climatechange"isthedefiningchallengeofourage”.

TheworkoftheIPCC,whichwasco-awardedtheNobelPeacePrizelastmonthwithAlGore,underscoresjusthowmomentousthatchallengewillbe.Thereportpredictedthatatawarmingtrendof3.6degreesFarenheit—nowconsideredalmostunavoidable,duetothegreenhousegasesalreadyemittedintotheatmosphere—couldputupto30%ofspeciesontheplanetatriskforextinction.Awarmingtrendof3°wouldputsmillionsofhumanbeingsatriskfromflooding,wetlandswouldbelostandtherewouldbeamassivedie-offofseacorals.Sealevelswouldriseby28to43cm,andmostfrighteningofall,thereportac-knowledgedthepossibilitythatthemeltingoftheGreenlandicesheet,whichwouldreleaseenoughfreshwatertoswampcoastalcities,couldoccurovercenturies,ratherthanmillen-nia."IfyouaddtothisthemeltingofsomeoftheicebodiesonEarth,thisgivesapictureofthekindsofissueswearelikelytoface,"saidRajendraPachauri,theIPCC'schairman.

Asifthepotentialconsequencesofclimatechangeweren'tscaryenough,theIPCCempha-sizedjusthowlittletimewehavelefttotrytochangethefuture.Thepanelreportedthattheworldwouldhavetoreversetherapidgrowthofgreenhousegasesby2015toaverttheworstconsequences.Theclockwasrunning."Whatwewilldointhenexttwo,threeyearswilldetermineourfuture,"saidPachauri."Thisisthedefiningchallenge."

Thatputsthepressureontheworld'sleaderstofinallydosomethingaboutglobalwarming.They'llhavetheirlast,bestchancenextmonth,whenenergyministersfromaroundtheworldtraveltoBali,Indonesia,fortheannualmeetingoftheU.N.'sFrameworkonClimateConvention.TherepolicymakerswillbeginattemptingtonegotiateasuccessortotheKyotoProtocol,whichexpiresin2012."ThebreakthroughneededinBaliisforacomprehensiveclimatedealthatallnationscanembrace,"saidBan.

Allthenationsintheworldwillplayaroleinthosenegotiations,buttheirsuccessandfailurewillcomedowntotwocountries:theU.S.andChina.Iftheworld'stwobiggestcarbonemitterscanagreetocaptheirgreenhousegasemissions—neithersignedonforlimitsunderKyoto—wemaystandachanceofavertingthegrimmestconsequencesofclimatechange.Iftheyfail,thentheIPCChasalreadywrittenourfuture.We'llfindoutinBali.

Source:TimeMagazine,BryanWalsh,November17,2007.

IsGlobalWarmingDrowningAfrica?

Africahasalwaysbeenpredictedtobethecontinentthatwillbeworsthitbyglobalwarmingandclimatechange.Couldthose pre-dictionsbecomingtrue?ExtremerainsandfloodshavemadeforaverywetsummerinAfricaandthereisnoendinsighttothedownpoursthatareswallowingtownsandforcingoveramillionto

fleetheirhomesinatleast20countries.SinceJune,Uganda,Sudan,EthiopiaandKenyahavehadhundredsofthousandsofpeopleuprootedfromtheirhomes.Scoreshavediedsince.WestAfricahasseenitsworstfloodsinyears,with300,000fleeingtheearth-coloredwatersofnorthernGhana.Meanwhile,forecastsbyAfricanmeteorologistssaytherainshaveyettopeak.Octobermaybetheworstmonthtocomeinthisverywetyear.

Thisweatheriswhatclimatologistspredicted,anditishappeningevenfasterthanexpected,"saysGraceAkumu,executivedirectoroftheKenya-basedClimateChangeNetwork."Weareoverwhelmed."TheimmediateconsequencesofclimatechangeinAfrica?Countrieswillexperienceeithertorrentialfloodsorseveredroughtduringaseason.AkumusaysthattheunpredictableclimatewillthreatenthefoodsupplyinAfricaandpotentiallyeliminatekeycrops.Africansareexpectedtofaceaseverelackoffoodanddrinkablewaterbytheendofthecentury.

ScientistsontheU.N.'sIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangewarnedthisweekthattheeffectsofglobalwarmingarealreadybeingfeltinAfrica.TheIPCC'smostrecentreportonAfricapredictedaminimum2.5degreecentigradeincreaseinthecontinent'stemperatureby2030.Growingseasonswillbecutshortandstretchesoflandmadeunsuitableforagriculture,withyieldsdecliningbyasmuchas50%insomecountries.Insub-SaharanAfrica,between25%and40%ofanimalsinnationalparksmaybecomeendangered.Africa'smajorbodiesofwater,includingtheNile,willsufferexcessivefloodingcausedbyrisingsealevels.

Africaisparticularlyvulnerablebecauseithasalowinstitutionalcapacitytocombatthechangingweather.Asaresult,saysUgandanclimatechangespecialistJamesMagezi-Akiiki,"inAfrica,adaptationtoclimatechangeismoreimportantthanmitigation."InresponsetothefloodsdevouringUganda,Magezi-Akiikisaysthatthegovernmentwillnowconsidertheeffectsofglobalwarming,suchasincreasedrainfall,initsplanningoffutureinfrastructureprojects.Ironically,Africaproducesfarlesscarbonthanothercontinents,leadingsomescientiststoblameindustrializedcountriesforAfrica'sclimateplight.Uganda'sPresidentYoweriMuseveniannouncedatanAfricanUnionsummitthisyearthatdevelopedcountrieswere"committingaggression"againstAfricabycausingglobalwarming.

"There'snotmuchAfricacando—unlessothercountriescuttheirgreenhouseemissions,oureffortswillbeundercut,"Akumusays.Inthemeantime,floods,droughts,earthquakes,landslidesandothernaturaldisastersareexpectedtobecomemorefrequent,alongwiththeoccurrenceofdiseasessuchastyphoid,choleraandmalaria.Akumuwarnsthatwithoutaidfromrichercountriesintheformofcashtopayformoredurableroadsandhospitals,Africawillbeunabletohandlemoredisasterslikethissummer's.

Source:TimeMagazine,BryanWalsh,