DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION 10-23-2012 DAWG

Demand Forecasting Subgroup

Purpose & Goals
The DAWG’s Demand Forecasting Subgroup or “pup” provides a forum to share and discuss methodology, input data assumptions, and policy assumptions related to electricity and natural gas demand forecasts in California. The forum is meant to be a catalyst for improving the quality, comprehensiveness, and transparency of demand forecasts and related data inputs, particularly those forecasts presented and/or discussed during the California Energy Commission’s (CEC) Integrated Energy Policy Report (IEPR) process, and to better integrate these forecasts into resource planning decisions.

Topic Areas & Activities
Key Demand Forecasting Subgroup topic areas and activities include:

  • CEC 2013 IEPR forecast scenarios, assumptions, and inputs
  • Utility forecast scenarios, assumptions, and inputs
  • Review of current forecasting techniques used by the CEC, utilities, and other stakeholders, including methodologies and key drivers
  • Discussion of further disaggregation of CEC and utility demand forecasts
  • Identification of economic/demographic and other trends within a service area that may not be incorporated in CEC demand forecasts
  • Continued discussion of new/alternative forecasting techniques, particularly for peak demand
  • Methods for weather adjustment and accounting for extreme weather events in demand forecasts
  • Further exploration of techniques and assumptions for incorporating climate change in demand forecasts
  • Pros and cons of a Common Forecasting Methodology
  • In consultation with the CEC expert panel, development and implementation of a more formalized method of comparing CEC forecast results to utility and other forecasts
  • Continued discussion of a hybrid econometric-end use models, including consultation with CEC expert panel
  • Design and provide input regarding statewide appliance and equipment saturation studies
  • Alignment of demand forecasts used for both generation procurement and transmission planning to incorporate demand-modifiers including energy efficiency, distributed generation and demand response
  • Incorporating uncertainty more fully in demand forecasts, including uncertainty related to energy efficiency and distributed generation (DG) impacts (includes consultation with CEC expert panel)
  • Energy market activities that may affect future electricity and natural gas use, including EVs and other transportation electrification
  • Ensuring consistency between estimated historical energy savings and projected savings within demand forecasts
  • Integration of a more macro-consumption-based approach to incorporating energy savings into demand forecasts (discussion of further work for “macro consumption metrics”)
  • Additional data needs for demand forecasting
  • Reflecting demand-side resources in forecasts, in particular energy efficiency and distributed generation
  • Input to and involvement in the CEC’s low resolution exploratory modeling (LRXM) effort
  • Preparing forecasts and developing inputs disaggregated to the climate zone level, and eventually at the busbar level.