Identifying Societal Cycles:
SOCIOCULTURAL
Generations by Strauss & Howe
Proposes 4 Recurring Generational Types in the U. S. - Each Having Its Own Distinctive Characteristics & Repeats About Every 88 Years
¨ Civic Generation
¨ Adaptive Generation
¨ Idealistic Generation
¨ Reactive Generation
GENERATIONS:
THE HISTORY OF
AMERICA'S FUTURE,
1584 TO 2069
by William Strauss
and Neil Howe
Published by Quill, 1991
GENERATIONS in 2001
· CIVIC (GI Generation)
Born 1901 - 1924
Now 77 - 100 years old
Characteristics:
Action-Oriented, Group-Centered,
Male Values, Builders, Centralization,
Team/Nation Validates Identity & Control Actions, Majority Rules, Mass Production
· ADAPTIVE (Silent Generation)
Born 1925 - 1942
Now 59 - 76 years old
Characteristics:
Over-Protected: Risk-Averse Conformists,
Tolerant:Sensitive to Others & Other Views,
Value Professional Expertise, Bureaucrats,
Follow Expected Roles & Male Values, Value Consensus, Compassionate, Boring
IDEALISTIC (Baby Boomers)
Born 1943 - 1960
Now 41 - 58 years old
Characteristics:
Values-Oriented, Self-Centered,
Feminine Values, Decentralization,
Attitudes: Set Identity & Control Actions
Spiritual, Visionaries, (Modern Puritans),
Want Custom-Made Goods & Services, Perfectionists, Self-Development Imp.
· REACTIVE (13th or Generation X)
Born 1961 - 1981
Now 20 - 40 years old
(Most Aborted Generation in History)
Characteristics:
Under Protected: Rebellious, Alienated,
Individualists, Risk-Takers, Skeptical,
Regard Boomers as Sanctimonious,
Extremely Pragmatic, Entrepreneurs,
Family-Oriented, Nurturing Parents,
Comfortable with Change
· CIVIC (Millennial or Generation Y)
Born 1982 to 2002/5
Now 19 years old & under
Characteristics:
Same as Previous Civic Generations
GENERATIONAL CYCLES
CIVIC Republican (1742-1766)
GI (1901-1924)
Millenial (1982-2002/5)
ADAPTIVE Progressive (1843-1859)
Silent (1925-1942)
IDEALIST Missionary (1843-1859)
Baby Boomers (1943-1960)
REACTIVE Lost (1883-1900)
13th/Gen X (1961-1981)
CONSTELLATIONS OF GENERATIONS
ERA
1960s-1980s
JFK-Bush / INNER-DRIVEN
ERA
1990s-2010s
Clinton-W.Bush / CRISIS
ERA
1930s-1940s
(2010s-2020s)
FDR / OUTER-
DRIVEN
ERA
1950s-1960s
Truman-Ike
ELDER: / CIVIC / ADAPTIVE / IDEALIST / REACTIVE
MIDLIFE: / ADAPTIVE / IDEALIST / REACTIVE / CIVIC
RISING: / IDEALIST / REACTIVE / CIVIC / ADAPTIVE
YOUTH: / REACTIVE / CIVIC / ADAPTIVE / IDEALIST
Source: W. Strauss & N. Howe, Generations,(NY:Quill, 1991).
Moods of Eras
ERA
1960s-1980s
JFK-Bush / INNER-DRIVEN
ERA
1990s-2010s
Clinton-W.Bush / CRISIS
ERA
1930s-1940s
(2010s-2020s)
FDR / OUTER-
DRIVEN
ERA
1950s-1960s
Truman-Ike
Nurture of Children / Under-protective / Tightening / Over-protective / Loosening
Sex Role Divisions / Narrowing / Narrowest point / Widening / Widest point
Tolerance for Personal Risk / Rising / High / Falling / Low
Individualism vs Community / Rising individualism / Maximum individualism / Rising community / Maximum community
World View / Rising complexity / Maximum complexity / Rising simplicity / Maximum simplicity
Behavior Toward Ideals / Discover / Cultivate / Champion / Realize
Behavior Toward Institutions / Attack / Redefine / Establish / Build
Sense of Greatest Need / Fix inner world / Do what feels right / Fix outer world / Do what works
Vision of the Future / Euphoric / Darkening / Urgent / Brightening
Source: W. Strauss & N. Howe, Generations,(NY:Quill, 1991) p. 354.
AWAKENING ERA
¨ Civic elders confidently run institutions they built around an earlier set of values.
¨ Adaptive mid-lifers feeling pulled in competing directions by more powerful generations on either side.
¨ Idealist rising adults experiencing spiritual conversion near the coming-of-age moment and cultivating implacable moral conviction.
¨ Reactive youths too young to participate, left alone, urged to grow up quickly, and criticized as "bad"
CRISIS ERA
¨ Idealist elders providing principle & vision.
¨ Reactive midlifers understanding how the real world functions & leading accordingly.
¨ Civic rising adults, smart & organized, doing their duty.
¨ Adaptive youths emulating adults and making relatively few demands.
Identifying Societal Cycles:
ECONOMICS
Kondratieff Long Wave Cycle
Proposes Existence of Cyclical Waves with a Duration of 48 – 55 Years.
Each Cycle Has a Rising Wave of Prosperity Followed by a Falling Wave of Recession or Depression
The Long Wave Cycle
by
Nikolai Kondratieff
Translated by Guy Daniels
Introduction by Julian M. Snyder
Richardson & Snyder
1984
Extending Kondratieff's Long Wave Economic Cycles
1790-1813 1850-1873 1893-1917
(23) (23) (24)
Average: 23.3 years
------
1813-1850 ¯ 1873-1893 ¯ 1917- ? ¯
(37) (20) (?)
Average: 28.5 years
------
If we extend his cycle by adding 23 year up cycles and 28 year down cycles, we get the following:
1917-1945 ¯
1945-1968
1968-1996 ¯
1996-2019
DOWNTURN IN 1980s?
¨ U. S. economy was shambles
¨ Remember "It's the economy, stupid"?
¨ Inflation rate was 14% annually.
¨ Unemployment rate was 10%.
¨ Combined, it was called a misery index.
¨ Interest rates were 21%.
¨ Farm economy in worst shape since
depression of 1930s.
¨ Europe (West & East) were even worse.
¨ Asia, however, was doing well
Source: Schwartz, Leyden, Hyatt, The Long Boom (Perseus, 1999), p. 14.
THE LONG BOOM
by
Peter Schwartz, Peter Leyden, Joel Hyatt
Reading MA: Perseus Press, 1990
Proposed Long Boom: 1980 to 2020
Based on Four Megatrends:
· Technological Change
· Economic Innovation
· Global Integration
· Spreading Democratization
THE LONG BOOM
Three Major Waves of New Technologies:
1) Computer & Telecommunications: The Great Enabler of 1980s
2) Biotechnology: Manipulation of genetic material in 1990s
3) Fuel Cell & Other Energy: Replacing Oil in 2000s
4) Nanotechnology: Manufacturing at atomic level in 2010s