State Actor:Uzbekistan
State objectives:The Karimov regime and its likely successors seek to maximally control the population and prevent any dissent,maintain regional influence in Central Asia, and keep a system of alliances that brings maximum benefit to the ruler yet is flexible enough to opt out of anything that dilutes influence.
State alliances:Part of several post-Soviet economic and military alliances, including the Collective Security Treaty Organization. Allied with Russia, following a break in relations with the United States in 2005. Relatively close relations with Pakistan.
State targets:Tajikistan, U.S. interests and personnel, Western powers and their interests and personnel.
Operational history:As part of the USSR, housed a significant portion of its chemical and biological weapons arsenal on the VozrozhdenieIsland and at the Chemical Research Institute at Nukus. Specialists likely remain in the country and would be able to resurrect facilities. Cite of extensive CBRN weapons research. There is a uranium mining and milling facility at Navoi, and the country still has approximately 119 kilograms of HEUas irradiated fuel at the Institute of Nuclear Physics at Ugulbek, near Tashkent.
Potential usage of WMD:Would use CBRN under certain circumstances. Uzbekistan’s leadership would use WMD if it perceived an immediate and conventionally insurmountable threat to its territory or power. Uzbekistan is currently at least somewhat constrained by Russian influence and as a member of several regional organizations. However, the regime is generally belligerent and could militarily target any Western interests that are deemed to be interfering with its leadership. President Islam Karimov imposes maximum control over his population, and any foreign interference could cause retaliatory measures. Currently, Karimov is expelling foreign organizations and companies, but it is not unlikely he may move to attack. The mitigating factor is Russia’s moderation, which Karimov may eventually spurn. However, while Uzbekistan is rich in natural resources, most export routes lead through Russia and other Central Asian states.
Background:
Uzbekistan does not possess nuclear weapons, though tactical nuclear weapons may have been present on its territory during the Soviet era. Nuclear material remains in Uzbekistan in the form of irradiated fuel elements containing highly enriched uranium (HEU) at an operational nuclear research reactor near Tashkent. In September of 2004, nearly 11 kilograms of Russian-origin enriched uranium fuel, including three kilograms of HEU, were repatriated to Russia to be downblended into low-enriched fuel suitable for use in nuclear power reactors. A second research reactor in Tashkent was dismantled in the 1990s. Uzbekistan is a party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). Uzbekistani President Islam Karimov formally proposed the creation of a Central Asian Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone at the 48th session of the UN General Assembly in 1993. The foreign ministers of the five Central Asian States--Kazakhstan, Krygyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan--signed a treaty establishing a Central Asian Nuclear Weapon Free Zone (CANWFZ) on 8 September 2006.( Uzbekistan may have the skilled individuals, but not the facilities or the budget to develop nuclear weapons. There is Uranium mining in Uzbekistan. The WWR-CM Tashkent nuclear research reactor is operational at 10,000 kw. There were reports of a uranium enrichment facility operational at the Navoi Mining and Metallurgy Combine in the 1970s-1980s, now supposedly closed.
Uzbekistan has uranium mining facilities and has irradiated fuel containing HEU on its territory. There is an operational nuclear research reactor near Tashkent and several radiological hospital facilities spread throughout the country.
Uzbekistan has inherited several former BW facilities from Soviet times. In Tashkent, the Institute of Virology now focuses its research on human viral diseases, while the TashkentCenter for Prophylaxis and Quarantine of Most Hazardous Diseases specializes in research on bacterial diseases. The later institute once was part of the Soviet anti-plaque system. Both institutes house extensive collections of microorganisms, including dangerous pathogens. For example, the Institute of Virology has a collection of various hemorrhagic fever viruses, such as the Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus. The TashkentCenter for Prophylaxis and Quarantine of Most Hazardous Diseases has collections of various types of bacteria, including those that cause plague, brucellosis, anthrax, and tularemia. The largest Soviet BW field-testing facility was located on VozrozhdeniyeIsland, now a peninsula, in the Aral Sea. Most of the BW infrastructure is located on the two-thirds of the peninsula that lies within Uzbekistani territory. During the Soviet era, VozrozhdeniyeIsland was used to test weapons armed with pathogens that cause anthrax, plague, tularemia and smallpox. Under the CTR program, Uzbekistan and the U.S. agreed on a two-stage project to clean up the island and dismantle its BW facility. The U.S. has allocated $6 million for the first stage, which is to decontaminate 11 pits containing a slurry of formulated Bacillus anthracis that were construed by the Red Army in 1988. This first stage was conducted and completed in May 2002. The second stage of the project will consist of dismantling the BW facility. The budget and timing of the second stage have not yet been settled on. Uzbekistan is a party to the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC). ( Uzbekistan has the experts and facilities to weaponize and deploy biological weapons. There is sufficient oversight and steady electricity in most of the populated parts of the country. There is little international oversight in the country, but there are pharmaceutical and food processing facilities.
Uzbekistan inherited one Soviet-era CW facility, the Chemical Research Institute, located near the city of Nukus in western Uzbekistan. It had a one-cubic-meter reactor vessel with a one-ton production capacity per day. The facility was equipped with high-containment laboratories, and aerosol test chamber, and a wind tunnel used to model the dispersion of chemical agents. The facility also had an open-air test site. Operated by the Red Army, the test site was used to field-test various chemical agents. The binary agent Novichok might also have been tested on the site.Under a May 1999 implementing agreement signed by Uzbekistan and theUnited States,the CTR program provided $8.5 million for the dismantlement of the Chemical Research Institute. Dismantlement was complete in June 2002 and verified by the U.S..Uzbekistan is a party to the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC),but not the Australia Group. ( Uzbekistan also has experts from the Soviet times that would be able to implement a program. There is sufficient artillery to have deployment capability. Uzbekistan is home to a laboratory that manufactures pesticide samples and other chemical facilities. The dictatorial regime exercises strong oversight and electricity is available in all but the most rural and unpopulated parts of the country. International oversight is weak.