Travel Briefing for the visit of George and Meredith to Turkey
November 2010
Perception of the US/US Policy
1- It is critical to keep in mind that George’s last visit to Turkey coincided with Israeli raid against the Turkish flotilla, which left nine Turks dead. At the time, everybody was trying to gauge the impact of the incident and to convince George how guilty Israel was.
Over the past few months, however, another issue was – and is still being - heavily debated in Turkey and international press: Is Turkey turning to the East? / Is Turkey shifting its axis away from the West? And this debate, again, is in the heart of the struggle between secularists and Islamists in Turkey, as AKP tries to show Americans that Turkey is not shifting its axis but just gets involved more in regional issues (many delegations were dispatched to DC to convince the Congress), while secularists claim that AKP pursues a more Islamist policy.
As a consequence, you will face a lot of questions concerning the general feeling about this discussion in Washington. Journalists and politicians will die to learn if Americans really think that Turkey is becoming an Islamist-oriented country.
2- The ongoing debate about NATO missile defense system that US wants to deploy in Turkey could be a major issue during your visit. Turkey wants it to be
a) A NATO plan and not only a deal between Turkey and US. b) Not against any third country. One of the most frequently questions that you could face is likely to be about US plans about missile system and what could be US reaction should Turkey reject to deploy them on its soil. (adding to shift of axis argument)
3- PKK is always top on the agenda especially at a time when PKK will decide whether to extend ceasefire. Generally, people seem to be satisfied with US support to Turkey against PKK, but there could be some concerns about this, as in the past there were many debates about lack of US support.
4- The never-ending story about US stance on secularist – Islamist struggle in Turkey. (Do not get shocked if you hear questions whether the new CHP leader ousted the old one over a sex-tape scandal as a result of US broader strategy for Turkey) The upcoming elections in June 2011 could be a part of this.
5- Gulen movement became extremely popular very recently and is still being debated on a daily basis. Whether US supports Gulen and its activities in Turkey or whether Gulen has a plan to implement in Turkey could be some of the questions you may face.
Other questions/concerns like, why new US ambassador’s appointment to Turkey is being delayed, what was discussed during the latest closed-door meeting on Turkey in the State Department, what is the current and future shape between US – Israel – Turkey triangle are likely to take place but these would all be related to the first point above, which is shift-of-axis debate.
Regional Tensions
The biggest issue is, of course, Israel. Turkey understands that there is no way to repair its relationship with the US completely as long as it is at odds with Israel. However, Prime Minister Erdogan cannot back off from its stance against Israel with less than a year left before the elections. Therefore, most of the public remarks should be read as a message to Turkish population. Lastly, for instance, Erdogan said he would not go to Greece to attend a conference if Netanyahu goes there as well. Finally, Erdogan went to Athens and Netanyahu did not. However, we found out through intelligence that Netanyahu has never had a plan to go there nor was he even invited. But Erdogan made a nice popularity with his move.
As far as Iran is concerned, we’ve seen a bitter event two weeks ago, which I think could support George’s thesis in “The Next Decade” that Iran and Turkey would be competitor in the end. During A-dogg’s trip to Lebanon, a Lebanese newspaper claimed that A-dogg floated the idea of extending his trip one more day so that he could meet with Erdogan in Beirut on his way back from Pakistan. Press office of Erdogan denied such a meeting would take place. Our confederation partners told me that they learned from prime ministry that such a meeting was never planned. Such an incident could appear minor at first but I think is undoubtedly related to Syria – Iran competition in Lebanon and Turkey’s willingness to back Syria. NATO missile defense system is an issue in Turkish – Iranian ties as well.
As to Iraq, Turkey is very much concerned about the government formation talks. Lastly, Maliki visited Turkey and met with top-brass AKP people. There are reports that Allawi could visit Turkey soon. It seems to me like Turkey wants a stable government in Iraq but for the moment; all its attention is diverted to northern Iraq to eliminate PKK threat. Talabani made some nice remarks against PKK recently. Moreover, Turkish state oil company TPAO secured two of three natural gas fields in Iraq that were auctioned last week.
As far as Russia goes, the entire focus is on energy related matters. Russia appears dubious on Samsun – Ceyhan oil pipeline project, which our partners say, is due to Turkey’s tough bargaining conditions. The deal on nuclear power plant is set in stone now and Russia will need to establish a joint venture with a Turkish company in less than three months. So, there are many things to watch in terms of Russia – Turkey energy deals will be finally completed.
Perception of STRATFOR
As you already know, we came under Gulenist criticism following our Turkey Special Report. Since then, however, I haven’t seen any piece or news that aim to discredit us in major media. Moreover, head of TUSKON (a Gulenist businessmen association that we wrote about in our report. Also remember their representative in DC blamed Reva of being a spy but later backed off) Rizanur Meral recently cited Stratfor in one of his speeches to CEOs to support his argument of Turkey as a growing country and a future major regional player.
Last week, a very well-known columnist Serdar Turgut wrote couple of articles about us in HaberTurk daily. HaberTurk is a prominent newspaper in Turkey, which is in good terms with the AKP government (Its owner, Ciner group, takes care of nuclear power plant projects with Russians). Turgut largely cited George’s The Next 100 Years and wrote couple of positive paragraphs about us. He said how we are being closely watched by intelligence organizations and governments due to the information that we provide, how connected we are in all regions to gather information etc.
Serdar Turgut is a badass. He wrote an article last year in which he said he wanted to kidnap a Kurdish female singer to mountains and make her his sex slave. (He was later charged because of that). Nevertheless, he has a tremendous number of readers. So, even though you may face some provocative questions by Gulenists this time around, I think we are in a much better position in Turkey compared with couple of months ago as a result of Serdar Turgut’s articles.
Bios
Since I was informed about our meetings with only Alparslan and Faruk, I will write here as much as I know about them.
Alparslan is a mission-guy. He is nice and tries to keep so many things working. He is not well-connected with the government, though. He is married with two sons; 10 and 2 years old. His wife (who will be in the dinner with us) is doing her own business, which is to supply miscellaneous stuff to several companies. Alparslan used to work for Hurriyet DN under David. Once I was having tea with David in his office, we talked about Alparslan for a second. David said “he wouldn’t comment on him and he still kisses him when he sees him”.
Alparslan really pays attention to our relationship and I’m really happy with his cooperation.
Faruk used to work for the government. He doesn’t really let out but he was very close to the energy minister and prime minister. Also, he took part in energy negotiations with Iranians and Americans. Right now, he doesn’t do government stuff and works for a consultancy company in Ankara. Since he is not a government official anymore, he does not keep information, though he still is cautious in his dealings with people not to get into trouble. His book called “Energy Games” was published this year.
Faruk is a valuable source and looks like a very nice guy. I appreciate his help to us.
Some Domestic Issues
Even though it was not included in the guidance, I would like to add some issues here that might of interest to you:
1 – One of the main issues between secularists and Islamists is heated again: Headscarf. As you know, there is a ban in Turkey that prevents girls with headscarves from entering the universities. There is no law, but decision of State Council and Supreme Education Board. Now that Supreme Education Board is dominated by AKP, its head recently issued a decree, which – de facto – allows those girls to get into the universities. There are many problems related to this issue, such as their future jobs (whether they could be judges, teachers etc.) and peer-pressure on girls who don’t wear headscarf. But now that AKP feels much more confident following the referendum, it does not seem to be caring the criticisms at all. Main opposition CHP’s new leader does not want to go to the supreme court (as former leader used to do) ahead of elections because this could add to AKP’s votes. However, this creates fissures within CHP.
2- As a result of referendum, AKP fills all high judiciary institutions with its own people. There is not so much that opposition can do against this.
3- Austrian OMV has agreed to take over Turkey’s biggest fuel retailer for 1 billion euros ($1.4 billion) to tap faster growth in emerging markets from Dogan Holding. OMV will buy Doğan Holding’s 54.17 percent holding in Petrol Ofisi, boosting its stake to 95.75 percent from 41.58 percent.
This sale is due to financial reasons as well as economic ones. Dogan Group ramped up its criticism against AKP before 2007 elections and following the elections, AKP started a major crackdown on Dogan Group by imposing tremendous tax fines. Dogan Group is also in a process of selling its two major media outlets, Hurriyet and CNNTurk due to financial troubles. As far as Petrol Ofisi is concerned, our confederation partners in Hurriyet Daily News told me that Petrol Ofisi also faces some tax trials. Also, Dogan Group cannot get public auctions for a while.
Non-STRATFOR Articles
ATC annual conference with twist of a perception or reality
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Friday, October 22, 2010
İLHAN TANIR
Dr. Philip Gordon, assistant U.S. secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs, who also oversees the Turkey portfolio in this capacity, made the most memorable remarks and gestures at this week’s 29th annual Conference of the American-Turkish Council Meeting in Washington, DC. Gordon joined Feridun Sinirlioğlu, undersecretary of Turkey’s Foreign Ministry, Robert Wexler, president of the Center for Middle East Peace Cooperation and former Congressman and two Turkey experts at Monday’s opening plenary session of the conference, and drew heavy analogies while analyzing the U.S.-Turkey relations.
While referring to the image problem of both countries in the others’ public opinion, Gordon reminded the audience that at the end of the day, both countries have democracies, therefore public opinion plays a major role in the process of adjusting or making policy decisions towards one another. According to Gordon, U.S. approval ratings are at historic lows in Turkey and Turkey’s close relations with Iran are worsening the perception of Turkey both in the U.S. and especially its Congress, which creates an environmentin which it is very difficult for the U.S. administration to get anything done.
The U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs Alexander Vershbow, in another panel on the sidelines of the conference, gave an example what Gordon wanted to say, stating that the U.S. Congress has an important role in arms sales, and unfortunately some remarks and attitudes Turkey both made and took last spring regarding Israel and Iran created a political climate that made U.S. progress difficult in some significant projects in the short term.
Gordon also said “it does not matter that it is not true about Turkey’s turning to the East; if people think it is true, then we have a problem.” Gordon opposed Wexler’s arguments and said “we don’t do any favor to us if we say it [the discussions over Turkey’s turning to East] doesn’t exist.”
Ömer Taşpınar, another participant of the same panel and Turkey expert at the Brookings Institute, a liberal-leaning Washington think tank which was Gordon’s home before he moved to the State Department, defined the current Turkish administration as “mercantilist,” and stated that when the U.S. spends much of its time trying to figure out how best to isolate Iran, Turkey aims to triple its trade volume with it. And these very different goals in both countries towards Iran make things very hard to manage.
Gordon, when he was making his closing remarks, picked up the topic where Taşpınar left over Iran, (both co-authored a book on Turkey a couple of years back titled “Winning Turkey”) and recognized this discrepancy, labeling it as the perception of having “cross purposes” on the policies that are taken by the both sides towards Iran.
While Gordon’s “cross purposes” remarks lingered in the room, he did not wait for other participants’ closing remarks and left the panel early for a speech he was to deliver at the Johns Hopkins’ SAIS. The curious part of the SAIS speech is that the speech was only added to Gordon’s schedule a few days ago, and the Turkish press was told about it on Friday with a special announcement by the State Department, whereas the invitations for the ATC meetings reached Gordon’s offices three months in advance.