Towards a comprehensive and ambitious post-2012
climate change agreement
2. The climate change challenge - a shared vision for the 21st century development:
The Bali Action Plan agreed on a shared vision for long-term cooperative action, including a long-term global goal for emission reductions, to achieve the ultimate objective of the Convention, stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. The EU determined already in 1996 its long term goal of limiting the global average temperature increase to no more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels. To achieve this, in 2050 global greenhouse gas emissions should be reduced by at least 50% compared to 1990 levels.
Would this aspirational long-term goal be appropriate in the light of the 2007 IPCC reports and latest scientific knowledge?
The Institute of Physics agrees with this interpretation. We are of the view that the 50% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is technically feasible given the range of approaches available across use reduction, user efficiency, generating efficiency, low- or zero-carbon generation and carbon capture and storage (CCS).
The present, global, use of fossil fuels, will soon result in carbon dioxide levels exceeding the recommended upper limit of 550 ppm which, as highlighted in the UK Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution’s report, Energy – The Changing Climate[1], has been calculated to lead to climate change that must be considered dangerous and destructive to present life-forms and, especially, to the human economy.
The Institute notes the UK government’s commitment to meet challenging environmental targets, such as a reduction in carbon dioxide emissions through domestic and international action by 60% by 2050 and 26-32% by 2020, against a 1990 baseline[2]. The Institute considers the reduction targets of UK-emitted carbon dioxide (and other EU domestic targets) to be achievable. However, in terms of global emissions, this effort may be outweighed by large increases in emissions from other countries especially the USA, Australia, India and China (the latter which is undergoing rapid industrialisation is understood to be building the equivalent of two new 50 MW coal-fired power plants each week). Thus, it is crucial that the EU pushes for international progress on emissions reduction and develops mitigating technologies like renewables, energy efficiency, and cleaner fossil-fuel technologies, etc., which can also be exported.
Is there a need for other elements to be part of the shared vision in order to ensure the transition to a sustainable low carbon economy?
Energy efficiency, both in use and at generation, is essential. The waste in energy usage must be tackled with changes in the style and use of energy in the home and elsewhere. However, it is understood that such changes in energy usage will require significant lifestyle changes.
Demand for energy can be reduced by developing a strategy which considers the principles of planning for energy saving from the point of view of product use, whether at home or in the work place. The main benefit should be that users participate intelligently in energy saving measures. Not only should products be intrinsically energy efficient, but users should be able to use them in an energy-efficient manner. The information about energy consumption which accompanies products should be attractive, informative and fulfilling. It also should be easy to assimilate and invite a meaningful response.
The following measures could also be considered:
· Improved building design by imposing higher building standards
· Improved electrical appliances, including better insulated fridges
· The development and use of more efficient lighting
· The development of more efficient vehicles, such as hybrid vehicles, and a greater emphasis on the use of public transport
· The introduction of a general carbon tax, based on the quantity of carbon dioxide emitted per unit of energy supplied
· Improvement of energy efficiency of old building stock, taking into account the long time frame for only concentrating on new buildings.
Every opportunity should be taken to encourage the best efficiency for production, delivery and usage of energy within the limits of legislation. In particular, there are opportunities to influence the energy efficiency of housing with measures such as:
· Building regulations for best insulation, passive solar design, incorporation of microgeneration, use of smart meters, control of heating and electricity
· Local regulations to (i) decrease energy use in unoccupied space, and (ii) increase local production of energy to meet local demand
· Utility bills to display energy performance in an attractive and usable way for the general public
· Technical trades to require qualifications in energy efficiency and microgeneration.
3. Mitigation commitments by developed countries:
The EU is of the view that developed countries should continue to take the lead by committing to collectively reducing their emissions of greenhouse gases by 30% by 2020 compared to 1990. They should do so also with a view to collectively reducing their emissions by 60 - 80% by 2050 compared to 1990.
What should be the criteria for allocating emission reduction efforts among developed countries, considering also the need to ensure the "comparability of efforts" as agreed in Bali?
Per capita ‘Contraction and Convergence’ to the same fossil-carbon emissions. This should be related to targets for:
· Zero net-carbon housing (insulation, biomass heating, passive-solar construction, microgeneration of solar heat and solar (plus wind) grid connected electricity, efficient appliances) as promoted by pricing mechanisms, building regulations, rating charges, grants, etc.
· Zero net and low-carbon buildings generally, including government buildings
· Combined heat and power (CHP) and district heating
· Renewable electricity
· Nuclear electricity
· Renewable fuels (wastes included, with emphasis on agricultural, food and construction wastes) yet realising overlap with food production
· Fuel efficient vehicles, especially cars (aim for 2 litre per 100 km), plus use of electric vehicles and biofuels
· Radically changed transport and traffic regulations (including keeping to speed limits)
· Increased and more efficient rail transport
· Radically less air travel
· More local resources (less transport)
· Sustainable agriculture.
4. Mitigation actions by developing countries:
The EU recognises the need for enhanced contribution by developing countries, whereby economically more advanced developing countries contribute adequately according to their responsibilities and respective capabilities.
What type of mitigation actions should developing countries undertake?
Developing countries should also seek to accept ‘Contraction and Convergence’ as detailed in response to question 3.
How should these be measured, reported and verified?
By measuring and monitoring against targets at all levels.
What should be the scale and legal nature of these actions?
No comment.
How should differences in responsibility and capability of different developing countries be taken into account?
By relating to per capita GDP, with an emphasis on helping the most in need.
To what extent and how should those actions be supported by technology and financial assistance from the developed countries?
Developed countries should export mitigating technologies like renewables, energy efficiency, and cleaner fossil-fuel technologies, etc., to developing countries. For instance, we understand that the Netherlands is to invest €500m in renewable energy projects (such as developing access to solar power, wind energy and hydropower) in Africa and Indonesia over the next three years[3].
What kind of supporting tools could be developed at the international level to support domestic action and should there be respective roles for the public and private sector, including the carbon market?
There is a need for international standards for reduced-carbon energy supply and use.
How should technology and financial assistance by developed countries to developing country mitigation and adaptation actions be measured, reported and verified and should they be compared?
No comment.
5. Carbon market
How should the existing Clean Development Mechanism and Joint Implementation be improved in order to increase their environmental integrity and effectiveness?
There is an urgent need for the benefits to be applicable at small-scale and with ordinary trade, for example, efficient machinery and appliances, and improved building standards.
What new market mechanisms could be developed to improve the effectiveness of the carbon market?
Universal feed-in tariffs for carbon-free electricity. This is an EU recommended method of growing distributed generation through photovoltaics. The feed-in tariff system has allowed a number of European countries, such as Germany, Denmark, Spain and Portugal, to install renewables capacity at low cost; these countries also manufacture photovoltaics at a significant level. The feed-in tariff system guarantees a price for renewable electricity fed back into the grid. In fact, in Germany there has been a dramatic rise in photovoltaic installations as the feed-in tariff system reduces and the market takes over. The feed-in tariff system used in Germany is recognised internationally as the most effective support mechanism for photovoltaics. It has encouraged microgeneration and is not based on government subsidy.
6. Carbon leakage
How could the delocalisation of emissions from developed countries with binding emission caps to other parts of the world be minimized?
No comment.
7. Sectoral approaches
What type of sectoral approaches could effectively contribute to global emission reductions?
Please see response to question 3.
8. Emissions from international air and maritime transport
How could emissions from international air and maritime transport be effectively addressed?
The most obvious way is by reducing the demand for air transport of goods and personal travel, but this will be difficult unless strict fiscal measures are introduced as the number of passengers is increasing at an exponential rate. So, in order to support current and future levels of demand, technical solutions are required. These include, airlines using more fuel-efficient aircraft, and logistical systems aimed at optimising the use of flights which carry as many passengers as possible, therefore reducing the number of flights.
In addition, all journeys and movement of goods could be considered to be registered for their carbon footprints for public knowledge. Then this can be related to personal carbon credits and trading.
9. Emissions from deforestation and forest degradation
What should be sources of financing emission reductions from deforestation and degradation?
No comment.
How financing of emission reductions from deforestation and degradation should be monitored taking into account non-permanence, leakage and liability issues?
No comment.
10. Adaptation needs and support for most vulnerable countries
What mechanism should be used to finance cost-efficient adaptation action in the most vulnerable countries, in particular LDCs, SIDS and African countries?
No comment.
How should the effectiveness of adaptation measures be monitored and assessed?
No comment.
What should be the catalyst role of the UNFCCC, considering notably the role and contribution of other relevant international organisations addressing the impacts of climate change on their area of competence?
It will be politic for EU countries to offer advice from a position of good practice.
11. Technology cooperation
Is there a need for specific support schemes for the development, demonstration or deployment of certain technologies? If so, for which ones and how should these be structured?
There needs to be a strong emphasis on the implementation of all low-carbon technologies whether this is via support schemes or other measures. The main technologies are described in detail below.
Nuclear power – The recent rises in oil and gas prices have meant that nuclear power stations enable an economic electricity option in quite a number of countries. Given that oil and gas reserves are beginning to run out, many EU governments need to follow the lead set by China, France, South Korea and Japan in allowing the market the option to pursue a new nuclear build programme.
There have been major improvements in nuclear technology over the past 10-15 years. New reactors have been, and are being developed, which have lower capital costs, are more efficient, safer to operate, produce significantly less radioactive waste and generate electricity at a lower cost unit than the current fleet of reactors.
While the construction time (including site preparation and commissioning) of reactors such as the AP1000, an advanced Pressurised Water Reactor from Westinghouse, has been quoted as only 5 years, and in view of the potential supply chain restrictions that are now emerging, if new nuclear capacity is to contribute usefully by 2020, then determined and immediate action is needed by EU governments to ensure that the necessary licensing and planning approvals are on track to be delivered in good time, so that reactors can then be ordered promptly to meet this time frame.
Renewables - As well as being low-carbon energy sources, renewables have a number of advantages. They enhance diversity in energy supply markets, secure long-term sustainable energy supplies, reduce dependency on imported energy supplies, and reduce emissions of local air pollutants. Their dominant use is for grid connected electricity, but in conjunction with storage they can contribute to stand-alone off-grid systems.
Renewables are therefore an essential part of the future EU energy mix, but as with all expanding technologies, there is a need for increased research and innovation in the relevant RD&D sectors. Given the possibility that solar power, among others, is a key resource capable of providing the amounts of electricity that will be demanded by the world’s consumers by around 2040 without excessive carbon emissions or limited abundance of fuel, it is imperative that the EU (i) removes any remaining barriers to the realisation of the technology, and (ii) establishes the best financial mechanisms for rapidly increasing renewables markets.
Fossil fuel with CCS - Globally, the supply of primary energy will continue to be dominated by fossil fuels until at least the middle of this century; both due to existing and newly built power stations. EU countries are in a position to develop CCS technologies to be transferred, when mature and cost-effective, to countries such as China and India as a retrofit option on some of their plants, which otherwise will be locking us into emissions of carbon dioxide for decades to come. Most least-cost scenarios for the stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere in the range of 450-750 ppmv carbon dioxide show that CCS could contribute between 15-55% of the cumulative effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions globally until 2100.
In order for CCS to become an economically sustainable part of the energy market, various challenges must be overcome. Not only will significantly improved CCS technologies be required, but also a sufficiently competitive and relatively stable price for carbon under the EU Emissions Trading Scheme; a framework which treats CCS as a low-carbon technology, recognising that a plant using CCS produces carbon dioxide without releasing it into atmosphere; and a legal framework to deal with issues such as sub-sea sequestration.