Skills in Lancashire: Evidence Base Commission – West Lancashire Statistical Annex
Skills in LancashireA COMPREHENSIVE EVIDENCE BASE ON
SKILLS AND EMPLOYMENT
West Lancashire
2015
1
Skills in Lancashire: Evidence Base Commission – West Lancashire Statistical Annex
West Lancashire
Key Messages· West Lancashire is the smallest of the five sub-geographies in population terms, with 111,300 residents. It accounts for under 8% of the LEP total.
· The population has grown more slowly than in other parts of Lancashire in recent years, and the working age population fell by 1% over the 2001-2013 period. This trend is expected to continue, with the working age population falling faster over the next ten years than elsewhere. This will limit the pool of labour from which local employers are able to recruit, and could increase the need for older workers to remain active in the labour market.
· West Lancashire has a higher economic activity rate than the county average, but this is still lower than the national rate. The employment rate has been falling in recent years, although amongst those aged 50-64, nearly two-thirds are in employment, considerably higher than the Lancashire average and potentially significant in a period of a decline in the working age population. Getting more older people to stay in work for longer is an important priority for West Lancashire.
· 6,000 people are self-employed, and this has increased by 2% over the past ten years, slightly more slowly than the county level.
· Three thousand West Lancashire residents are unemployed, 6% of the economically active population. West Lancashire has seen a much smaller increase in unemployment in response to the recession than many other areas, and the number of residents claiming Jobseekers Allowance has fallen by nearly 820 over ten years, a greater rate of decline than the county, regional or national level.
· Just over one quarter of working age residents are economically inactive, slightly lower than the Lancashire average, but above the national figure of 22.4%. Thirty per cent of the economically inactive are students, and a further 20% are retired.
· Employment in highly skilled occupations is higher amongst residents of West Lancashire than across the LEP as a whole. One quarter of all residents are employed in professional occupations, compared to 18% in Lancashire. This is also the area where growth is expected to be fastest, with a further 8% increase in employment in professional occupations forecast.
· Four in ten West Lancashire residents are employed outside the Lancashire LEP area. This is a higher proportion than for any of the other sub-geographies and reflects both transport links and West Lancashire’s historic ties to Merseyside and Greater Manchester.
· West Lancashire has a more highly qualified resident population than is the case across Lancashire as a whole. Over one-third already hold higher level qualifications, and this is expected to increase by 4% over the coming ten years. This rate of increase is lower than that expected for Lancashire, the north west and England minus London as a whole.
· There are 45,000 jobs within workplaces in West Lancashire (in comparison to more than 47,000 West Lancashire residents who are in employment, both in and outside their home local authority area). West Lancashire is one of the few parts of Lancashire to report an increase in the number of jobs since 2009.
· Key employment sectors include wholesale and retail, manufacturing and health and social care. West Lancashire has employment specialisms in the manufacture of leather and related goods, the manufacture of food, and civil engineering.
· There are over 4,000 businesses in West Lancashire, with the number per 1,000 working age residents close to the national average, in contrast to many parts of the LEP area. Strong survival rates contribute to higher levels of business density.
· The employment forecasts for West Lancashire are very positive, with the number of jobs expected to increase by 7%, exceeding the national growth rate. Important growth sectors which will generate employment opportunities that can be accessed by West Lancashire’s residents include wholesale and retail, professional, scientific and technical and construction. Significant job losses are expected in manufacturing.
· Further growth is expected in the proportion of the population who hold higher level skills, with the increase being faster than that expected at Lancashire, regional or national level.
· West Lancashire has a higher than average proportion of young people achieving five good GCSEs. A relatively high proportion of young people enter higher education, and West Lancashire accounts for around 6% of those participating in FE and apprenticeships in Lancashire.
· Nearly 2,500 residents have participated in the Work Programme, and the proportion who go on to achieve job outcomes is higher than the county or national average.
Population
1.1 West Lancashire’s population of 111,300 accounts for 7.6% of the Lancashire total. Population growth over the past twelve years has been slower than that experienced at Lancashire, regional or national level. The working age population (16-64) has fallen by 1% over that period, compared to a 3% increase in Lancashire and a 7% increase nationally.
1.2 The West Lancashire population is older than the Lancashire or national profile, with 36% aged over 50, compared to 34% in Lancashire and England minus London, and 30% aged 24 and under (compared to 31% both in Lancashire and nationally).
1.3 The West Lancashire is predominantly white – with only 2% from a black or minority ethnic background, compared to 10% in Lancashire as a whole.
1.4 The population is also forecast to grow more slowly in future, with a 5% decline in the working age population expected over the next ten years (compared to 2% in Lancashire and 1% growth nationally), and a 17% increase in the population aged over 65 (compared to 21% nationally).
Total Population: West Lancashire2001 / 2013 / 2001- 2013 % change
West Lancashire / 108,500 / 111,300 / 3%
Lancashire / 1,417,300 / 1,468,800 / 4%
North West / 6,773,000 / 7,103,300 / 5%
England minus London / 42,127,300 / 45,449,300 / 8%
Source: Mid Year Population Estimates
Population by Age Group: West Lancashire, % of total
0-14 / 15-19 / 20-24 / 25-34 / 35-49 / 50-64 / 65+ / Total
West Lancashire / 16% / 7% / 7% / 10% / 20% / 20% / 16% / 100%
Lancashire / 18% / 6% / 7% / 12% / 20% / 19% / 15% / 100%
North West / 18% / 6% / 7% / 13% / 20% / 19% / 14% / 100%
England minus London / 18% / 6% / 7% / 13% / 20% / 19% / 15% / 100%
Source: Mid Year Population Estimates
Working Age population change: West Lancashire
16-64 / 65+
2001- 2013 % change
2001 / 2013 / % change / 2001 / 2013 / % change
West Lancs / 69,500 / 69,000 / -1% / 17,000 / 22,700 / 34%
Lancs / 888,900 / 918,400 / 3% / 235,200 / 275,600 / 17%
North West / 4,297,200 / 4,516,100 / 5% / 1,081,700 / 1,252,600 / 16%
England minus London / 26,731,300 / 28,595,200 / 7% / 6,938,400 / 8,344,800 / 20%
Source: Mid Year Population Estimates
Ethnic Make Up, % of total population: West Lancashire
Asian / Asian British / Mixed / multiple ethnic / Black / African / Caribbean / Black British / Other / Total
West Lancashire / 1% / 1% / 0% / 0% / 2%
Lancashire / 8% / 1% / 0% / 0% / 10%
North West / 6% / 2% / 1% / 1% / 10%
England minus London / 6% / 2% / 2% / 1% / 10%
Source: Census 2011
Population Projections: West Lancashire (000’s)
16-64 / 65+
2015 / 2025 / % change / 2015 / 2025 / % change
West Lancashire / 69 / 65 / -5% / 24 / 28 / 17%
Lancashire / 928 / 910 / -2% / 287 / 337 / 17%
North West / 4,586 / 4,551 / -1% / 1,305 / 1,546 / 18%
England minus London / 29,152 / 29,577 / 1% / 8,744 / 10,580 / 21%
Source: ONS Population Projections
Economic Activity, Employment and Self-Employment
1.5 The economic activity rate in West Lancashire (the proportion of the working age population who are active in the labour market, i.e. either in work, self-employed or unemployed but actively looking for work) is higher than the Lancashire average but below the national average. The activity rate has fallen over the past ten years, in contrast to the national position.
1.6 The employment rate amongst people of working age is just under 70%, a fall of 2.3% since 2004. Compared to the Lancashire average, West Lancashire has a higher employment rate amongst those aged 50-64.
1.7 6,000 people are self-employed, 12.6% of the total. This is lower than the Lancashire average and has increased more slowly over the past ten years.
Economic Activity rate, %: West Lancashire2004 / 2014 / 2004- 2014 % pt change
West Lancashire / 76.1 / 74.9 / -1.2
Lancashire / 74.8 / 73.4 / -1.4
North West / 74.1 / 74.6 / 0.5
England minus London / 77.0 / 77.6 / 0.6
Source: Annual Population Survey
Working age employment rate, %: West Lancashire
2004 / 2014 / 2004- 2014 change
No. / % / No. / % / No. / % pt
West Lancs / 50,500 / 72.0 / 47,200 / 69.7 / -3,300 / -2.3
Lancs / 641,900 / 71.3 / 622,300 / 68.7 / -19,600 / -2.6
North West / 3,075,300 / 70.6 / 3,106,500 / 69.2 / 31,200 / -1.4
England minus London / 19,948,500 / 73.7 / 20,642,400 / 72.8 / 693,900 / -0.9
Source: Annual Population Survey
Employment Rate by Age group
West Lancashire / Lancashire / North West / England minus London
Aged 16-19 / 28.6 / 30.3 / 31.0 / 35.2
Aged 20-24 / 63.4 / 60.6 / 63.4 / 64.4
Aged 25-34 / 75.9 / 76.9 / 77.7 / 80.0
Aged 35-49 / 83.9 / 82.8 / 80.9 / 83.7
Aged 50-64 / 65.5 / 61.6 / 63.1 / 68.9
Aged 65+ / 7.7 / 8.8 / 8.3 / 10.1
Total / 69.7 / 68.7 / 69.2 / 72.8
Source: Annual Population Survey
Self-employment: West Lancashire
2004 / 2014 / 2004- 2014 change
No. / % / No. / % / No. / % pt
West Lancashire / 5,300 / 10.6 / 6,000 / 12.6 / 700 / 2.0
Lancashire / 73,900 / 11.5 / 86,300 / 13.9 / 12,400 / 2.4
North West / 330,400 / 10.7 / 397,500 / 12.8 / 67,100 / 2.1
England minus London / 2,358,800 / 11.8 / 2,775,700 / 13.4 / 416,900 / 1.6
Source: Annual Population Survey
Unemployment and Inactivity
1.8 Nearly 3,000 residents of West Lancashire are unemployed, 6% of the economically active population. This is a lower rate of unemployment than currently seen either nationally or in Lancashire as a whole, the level of unemployment has increased considerably less in West Lancashire over the past ten years than at County or national level. (+0.6%, compared to +2.8% in Lancashire as a whole).
1.9 There are over 800 JSA claimants in West Lancashire, a claimant unemployment rate of 1.2%. Again, this is lower than the County and national levels, and claimant unemployment has fallen faster in West Lancashire over the past ten years.
1.10 Just over one quarter of the working age population are economically inactive, a slightly lower proportion than in Lancashire as a whole, but nearly 3% higher than the national average. Levels of inactivity have increased over the past ten years, as is the case in the county as a whole.
ILO unemployment: West Lancashire2004 / 2014 / 2004- 2014 change
No. / % / No. / % / No. / % pt
West Lancashire / 2,900 / 5.4 / 2,900 / 6.0 / 0 / 0.6
Lancashire / 31,400 / 4.7 / 50,000 / 7.5 / 18,600 / 2.8
North West / 151,800 / 4.7 / 252,100 / 7.5 / 100,300 / 2.8
England minus London / 896,000 / 4.3 / 1,426,600 / 6.5 / 530,600 / 2.2
Source: Annual Population Survey
JSA Claimant Count: West Lancashire
2005 / 2015 / 2005-2015 change
No. / % of WA pop / No. / % of WA pop / No. / % pt
West Lancashire / 1,658 / 2.4 / 839 / 1.2 / -819 / -1.2
Lancashire / 17,429 / 1.9 / 16,062 / 1.7 / -1,367 / -0.2
North West / 101,028 / 2.3 / 86,925 / 1.9 / -14,103 / -0.4
England minus London / 544,072 / 2.0 / 549,649 / 1.9 / 5,577 / -0.1
Source: DWP
Economic inactivity rate, %: West Lancashire
2004 / 2014 / 2004- 2014 % pt change
West Lancashire / 23.9 / 25.1 / 1.2
Lancashire / 25.2 / 26.6 / 1.4
North West / 25.9 / 25.4 / -0.5
England minus London / 23.0 / 22.4 / -0.6
Source: Annual Population Survey
Occupation and Skills Profile
1.11 West Lancashire has a higher proportion of residents employed in highly skilled occupations than is the case in Lancashire as a whole – 42% compared to 39% at county level. One quarter of all residents are employed in professional occupations, higher than in any other part of the county. Employment in professional occupations has grown more rapidly amongst residents of West Lancashire than elsewhere.
Resident Occupation by Sub-Geography 2014West Lancashire / Lancashire / North West
Mgers & directors / 6% / 10% / 9%
Professional / 25% / 18% / 19%
Assoc. prof & tech / 10% / 12% / 13%
Admin & secreta. / 12% / 11% / 11%
Skilled trades / 10% / 12% / 11%
Caring, leisure and other service / 13% / 10% / 10%
Sales & cust. / 4% / 8% / 9%
Pro, plant & machine op. / 7% / 7% / 7%
Elementary / 10% / 11% / 11%
Highly skilled / 42% / 39% / 41%
Change in Resident Occupation by Sub-Geography 2004-2014
West Lancashire / Lancashire / North West
Mgers & directors / -5% / 0% / 0%
Professional / +8% / +2% / +3%
Assoc. prof & tech / -4% / +1% / +1%
Admin & secreta. / +2% / -2% / -2%
Skilled trades / -3% / -1% / -1%
Caring, leisure and other service / +5% / +1% / +1%
Sales & cust. / -2% / 0% / 0%
Pro, plant & machine op. / -3% / -1% / -2%
Elementary / -1% / 0% / -1%
Highly skilled / 0% / +3% / +4%
Source: Annual Population Survey
1.12 This is reflected in the resident skills profile. Over one third of residents have skills at Level 4 and above, compared to 29% in Lancashire as a whole, although the rate of increase in higher level skills has been slower in West Lancashire than at county or national level over the past ten years.