SECOND LECTURE AND DINNER 2016

DATE:WEDNESDAY 4 MAY2016

VENUE:UNIVERSITY HOUSE

1 BALMAIN CRESCENT

ACTON

TIME:6.15 PM– LECTURE – SEMINAR ROOM

7.00 PM - PRE-DINNER DRINKS – DRAWING ROOM

7.30 PM - DINNER – DRAWING ROOM

SPEAKER:DR HOWARD BRADY

TOPIC:CLIMATE CHANGE - THE SCIENCE IS SETTLED OR IS IT? A FORENSIC ANALYSIS

COST:MEMBERS WHO ARE FINANCIAL: $50.00

PARTNERS OF FINANCIAL MEMBERS: $45.00

NON-FINANCIAL MEMBERS & THEIR PARTNERS: $60.00

GUESTS ARE MOST WELCOME

PLEASE NOTE IF YOU CANCEL WITHIN 48 HOURS OF THE FUNCTION OR AFTER MONDAY 2 MAY2016 PAYMENT FOR THE DINNER IS STILL REQUIRED AS WE WILL BE CHARGED.

PLEASE ADVISE ANNETTE HAWKEN BY RETURNING THE ATTACHED FORM NO LATER THAN MONDAY 2 MAY 2016 (EITHER BY EMAIL TO OR FACSIMILE ON: 6207 1533).

ACT Chapter

Supreme Court of the ACT, GPO Box 1548 CANBERRA CITY ACT 2601 1 Tel: (02) 62071647 Fax: (02) 62071533

Chair, ACT Chapter Secretary, ACT Chapter Assistant Secretary

Justice Richard Refshauge Mr Gordon Selleck Assistant Commissioner Julian Slater OAM

From theChair

We were extremely fortunate to have Associate Professor Dennis McNevin speak to us at our first meeting this year. He gave us an exciting glimpse into what was the future of DNA as a forensic tool – just when we thought it had all become ho hum. The future looks very interesting. We much appreciated the talk and discussion afterwards.

Our members have been in the news lately, both good news and bad news.

The good news is that the Hon Jeffrey Miles AO, former Chief Justice of the ACT and the first Chair of the ACT Chapter, has been recognised in his inclusion in the ACT Honour Walk which recognises people and groups who have made a significant and lasting contribution to Canberra. In the case of the Hon Jeffrey Miles, he was Chief Justice from 1985 to 2002, during which time the ACT achieved self-government and he played a leading role in ensuring that the constitutional arrangements for the Territory included securing judicial independence.

On the other hand, we were sad to read of the death of long-time member Mr Herman Woltring on 22 February 2016. Herman had a distinguished career in the Attorney-General’s Department, the Australian Institute of Criminology (which he headed from 1990-2) and at the United Nations. He was the Officer-in-Charge of the Crime Prevention and Criminal Justice Board of the United Nations in 1992-3 and Director of the United National Inter-Regional Crime and Justice Research Institute in 1994. He was the author of many articles on criminal law, especially in the international sphere. His wife pre-deceased him and he leaves 3 children and 8 grandchildren. I have sent my condolences to the family on behalf of the Chapter.

The next meeting will be a little out of the ordinary, for we shall explore the issue of climate science from a forensic perspective.

Justice Richard Refshauge

Chair

Our Speaker

Howard Thomas Brady has Diplomas in Philosophy and Theology as well as a Master of Science and Ph.D. in Antarctic geology. Howard has been a Catholic priest educator, a Catholic chaplain for the US Navy at McMurdo and South Pole Station, and a site geologist during 4 expeditions for the first drill holes in rock on the Antarctic continent in the 1970s.

Howard’s interest in forensic investigation was first sparked by the Mt Erebus disaster in 1979 as he was in the Antarctic at that time and had a passing involvement.

Howard married in 1981.

He advised stockbrokers re mining investments and in 1987 co-founded a small oil and gas exploration company. Prior to the Olympics, Howard also acted ascompany doctor and managed a company to supply rock to pave many of the plazas of Sydney (such as Martin Place) for the Olympic Games. In 2005 Howard left the oil and gas world, and went back to academia as an Honorary Associate of Macquarie University where he researched coastal processes and sea level history in the Shoalhaven region. Howard’s position at Macquarie University was not renewed after his public criticism of CSIRO modelling of sea level in 2010. This work led to a wider examination of the climate system and hispublication of a book in late February this year: Mirrors and Mazes; a guide to the climate debate.

The Topic

CLIMATE CHANGE - THE SCIENCE IS SETTLED OR IS IT? A FORENSIC ANALYSIS ABSTRACT:

In an email to staff on 4 February of this year, CSIRO CEO Larry Marshall stated that “our climate models are the best in the world and our measurements honed those models to prove global climate change. That question has been answered.” Or, as Al Gore expressed the same conclusion “the science is settled”.At the risk of Dr Brady being labelled a climate science sceptic,this talk will present an analysis of the modelling used in the present climate debate and actual evidence for climate change in recent times. There is evidence that sea level is rising and that temperatures have been rising in a stepwise pattern for 300 years. There is little evidence of increased storm severity or increased storm frequency or of acceleration of sea level rise. Many statements about the effect of climate change or statements about the 'unprecedented' nature of the present warming would not hold up under scrutiny in a court room. There are areas when definite answers are not possible and we have to either extrapolate historical climate patterns or give more precedence to projections based on computer modelling. As a 2009 report from the UK’s Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) stated ‘projections’ should only be used to understand a range of potential future climate outcomes. Forensic scientists, who are trained to make detailed analysis of evidence to construct a past event, are, in this area, facing a non-linear system where a number of different scenarios could all have the same result.Is it even possible to separate the ‘science’ from the politics of the climate debate?

Our Venue

Our venue remainsUniversity House inour usual rooms, Seminar Room and Drawing Room.

Subscriptions

PLEASE NOTE:Subscriptions are now payable to the Sydney Office, operated by the Royal Australian College of Pathologists, Durham Hall, 207Albion Street, Surry Hills, NSW 2010.Invoices will be sent by the RACP early in 2016.

30 March 2016

AUSTRALIAN ACADEMY OF FORENSIC SCIENCES

ACT CHAPTER

To:Justice Richard Refshauge

Judges’ Chambers

Supreme Court of the ACT

GPO Box 1548

CANBERRA CITY ACT 2601

Telephone:02 6207 1647(PLEASE NOTE CHANGE IN NUMBER)

Fax:02 6207 1533(PLEASE NOTE CHANGE IN NUMBER)

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PLEASE NOTE IF YOU CANCEL ON OR AFTER MONDAY 2 MAY2016 PAYMENT FOR THE DINNER IS STILL REQUIRED AS WE WILL BE CHARGED.

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