NDI 4Wk Sophomores - Antarctic AFF Copenhaver & Weber

NDI 4Wk Sophomores - Antarctic AFF Copenhaver & Weber

1AC

Plan

The United States federal government should increase its development of physical and cyber infrastructure in Antarctica necessary for exploration of the Southern Ocean.

Advantage – Adaptation

Warming is past the tipping point – it is only a matter of time until we witness the melting of all of Antarctica which would increase sea levels drastically – scientific consensus – new data can reveal more about the status of antartica

Rignot 2014 (Eric a glaciologist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. He is the lead author of last week's landmark scientific paper on West Antartica 17 May 2014 “Global warming: it's a point of no return in West Antarctica. What happens next?”

Last Monday, we hosted aNasaconference on the state of the West Antarctic ice sheet, which, it could be said, provoked something of a reaction. "This Is What a Holy Shit Moment for Global Warming Looks Like," ran a headline in Mother Jones magazine.¶ We announced that we had collected enough observations to conclude that the retreat of ice in the Amundsen sea sector of West Antarctica was unstoppable, with major consequences – it will mean that sea levels will rise one metre worldwide. What's more, its disappearance will likely trigger the collapse of the rest of the West Antarctic ice sheet, which comes with a sea level rise of between three and five metres. Such an event will displace millions of people worldwide.¶ Two centuries – if that is what it takes – may seem like a long time, but there is no red button to stop this process. Reversing the climate system to what it was in the 1970s seems unlikely; we can barely get a grip on emissions that have tripled since the Kyoto protocol, which was designed to hit reduction targets. Slowing down climate warming remains a good idea, however – the Antarctic system will at least take longer to get to this point.¶ The Amundsen sea sector is almost as big as France. Six glaciers drain it. The two largest ones are Pine Island glacier (30km wide) and Thwaites glacier (100km wide). They stretch over 500km.¶ Many impressive scientists have gone before us in this territory. The concept of West Antarctic instability goes back to the 1970s following surveys by Charles Bentley in the 1960s that revealed an ice sheet resting on a bed grounded well below sea level and deepening inland. Hans Weertman had shown in 1974 that a marine-based ice sheet resting on a retrograde bed was unstable. Robert Thomas extended his work to pursue the instability hypothesis. Terry Hughes suggested that the Pine Island sector of West Antarctica was its weak underbelly and that its retreat would collapse the West Antarctic ice sheet. Considerable uncertainty remained about the timescale, however, due to a lack of observation of this very remote area.¶ Things changed with the launch of the ERS-1 satellite which allowed glaciers in this part of antartica to be observed from space. In 1997, I found that the grounding line (where the glacier detaches from its bed and becomes afloat) of Pine Island glacier had retreated five kilometres in the space of four years, between 1992 and 1996. Stan Jacobs and Adrian Jenkins had found a year earlier that the glacier was bathing in unusually warm waters, which suggested the ocean had a major influence on the glacier. Duncan Wingham and others showed that the glacier was thinning. In 2001, I found that Thwaites glacier was retreating too .¶ At that point, the scientific community took a different look at the region. Work by the British Antarctic Survey, Nasa and Chile led to more detailed observations, a monitoring programme was initiated, instruments were placed on the ice, in the ocean and scientific results started to pile up from a variety of research programmes. From that point, we all sought to find out whether this was really happening. Now, two decades after this process started, we have witnessed glacier grounding lines retreat by kilometres every year, glaciers thinning by metres every year hundreds of kilometres inland, losing billions of tons of water annually, and speeding up several percent every year to the flanks of topographic divides.¶ Thwaites glacier started to accelerate after 2006 and in 2011 we detected a huge retreat of the glacier grounding lines since 2000. Detailed reconstructions of the glacier bed further confirmed that no mountain or hill in the back of these glaciers could act as a barrier and hold them up; and 40 years of glacier flow evolution showed that the speed-up was a long story.¶ All these results indicate a progressive collapse of this area. At the current rate, a large fraction of the basin will be gone in 200 years,but recent modelling studies indicate that the retreat rate will increase in the future. How did this happen? A clue is that all the glaciers reacted at the same time, which suggested a common force that can only be the ocean. Ocean heat is pushed by the westerly winds and the westerlies have changed around Antarctica in response to climate warming and the depletion of the ozone. The stronger winds are caused by a world warming faster than a cooling Antarctica. Stronger westerlies push more subsurface warm waters poleward to melt the glaciers, and push surface waters northward.¶ Nerilie Abram and others have just confirmed that the westerlies are stronger now than at any other time in the past 1,000 years and their strengthening has been particularly prominent since the 1970s as a result of human-induced climate warming. Model predictions also show that the trend will continue in a warming climate.¶ What this means is that we may be ultimately responsible for triggering the fast retreat of West Antarctica. This part of the continent was likely to retreat anyway, but we probably pushed it there faster. It remains difficult to put a timescale on it, because the computer models are not good enough yet, but it could be within a couple of centuries, as I noted. There is also a bigger picture than West Antarctica. The Amundsen sea sector is not the only vulnerable part of the continent. East Antarctica includes marine-based sectors that hold more ice. One of them, Totten glacier, holds the equivalent of seven metres of global sea level.¶

Sea levels are rising at more rapid speeds than ever

Committee on Future Science Opportunities in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean; National Research Council 2011 (“Future Science Opportunities in Antarctica and the Southern¶ Ocean”//RC)

Earth’s geologic history provides some insight on Antarctica’s relationship with¶ global sea levels. During the Last Glacial Maximum, roughly 20,000 years ago,¶ atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were 180 parts per million by volume (ppmv),¶ one-third lower than pre-industrial values (Sigman and Boyle, 2000), Earth was colder on¶ average by about 5 C,and larger ice sheets caused global sea level to be more than 130¶ m lower than today (Fairbanks, 1989). Through a combination of rising atmospheric¶ carbon dioxide levels, changes in Earth’s orientation and orbit around the sun, and¶ instabilities inherent to large ice sheets, a massive deglaciation occurred that caused sea¶ level to rise at an average rate of 10 mm per year for more than 10,000 years (Figure 2.1).¶ Coral records indicate that the sea level increased at a rate in excess of 40 mm (about 1.6¶ in) per year during one interval around 15,000 years ago (Fairbanks, 1989). Antarctica¶ and its ice sheets contributed about 20 m to the overall 130 m rise in sea level and it¶ appears to have been at least partially responsible for the rapid rise noted 15,000 years¶ ago (Clark et al., 2002).¶ Following the transition from the last glacial period, sea level was relatively¶ stable for a period of approximately 7,000 years (Figure 2.1). However, increasing¶ atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels and warming since the advent of the Industrial¶ Revolution raise concerns of significant sea level rise in the future. Presently, sea level is¶ rising at approximately 3.5 mm per year as a combined result of thermal expansion of the¶ oceans and melting of glaciers and polar ice sheets (note that sea ice disappearance does¶ not contribute to sea level rise as it is already part of the ocean volume) (Beckley et al.,¶ 2007; National Research Council, 2010b). Sea level rise has been measured by a¶ combination of tidal gauges and satellites, including altimetric data from the Jason¶ satellites1. Since 2001, ice mass loss has also been measured from gravity field¶ measurements from the GRACE2 (Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment) satellites(Ward, 2004). Starting from being nearly in balance during the early 1990s, Antarctica¶ has been losing ice at an increasing rate and now contributes more than 0.5 mm to sea¶ level rise each year (Rignot et al., 2011).

A warning system to help predict the effects of climate change is crucial to surviving

Associated Press ’14[Collaboration of scientists, Aljazeera America, Report: Early warning system needed for abrupt climate changes, Schloss

Hard-to-predict sudden changes to Earth's environment are more worrisome than climate change's bigger but more gradual impacts, a panel of scientists advising the U.S. government concluded Tuesday.¶ The 200-page report by the National Academy of Sciences looked at warming problems that can occur in years instead of centuries. ¶ The report repeatedly warns of potential "tipping points" where the climate passes thresholds, beyond which "major and rapid changes occur." And some of these quick changes are happening now, said study chairman James White of the University of Colorado.¶ The study says abrupt changes like melting ice in the Arctic Ocean and mass species extinctions have already started and are worse than predicted. ¶ The panel of scientists called on the government to create an early warning system.¶ "The time is here to be serious about the threat of tipping points so as to better anticipate and prepare ourselves for the inevitable surprises," said the report by the Academy, a research arm of the federal government that enlists independent scientists to look at major issues. ¶ It says thousands of species are changing their ranges, seasonal patterns or, in some cases, are going extinct because of human-caused climate change.Species in danger include some coral, pika, a rabbit-like creature, polar bears and the Hawaiian silversword plant.¶ At the bottom of the world in Antarctica, the melting ice in the west could be more of a wild card than originally thought. If the massive ice sheet melts, it may happen relatively rapidly and could raise world sea levels by 13 feet. But researchers aren't certain how soon that may occur.¶ However, the report had what researchers called "good news." It said two other abrupt climate threats that worried researchers likely won't be so sudden, giving people more time to prepare and adapt. Those two less-imminent threats are giant burps of undersea and frozen methane, a super-potent greenhouse gas, and the slowing of deep ocean currents. That slowdown is a scenario that would oddly lead to dramatic coastal cooling.¶ Study co-author Richard Alley of Pennsylvania State University compared the threat of abrupt climate change effects to the random danger of drunk drivers.¶ "You can't see it coming, so you can't prepare for it. The faster it is, the less you see it coming, the more it costs,"Alley told The Associated Press. "If you see the drunk driver coming, you can get out of the way."¶ The scientists said the issue of sudden changes is full of uncertainties, so the world can better prepare by monitoring places like the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets more.¶ But because of budget cuts and aging satellites, researchers have fewer measurements of these crucial indicators than they did a few years ago, and they will have even fewer in upcoming years,said study co-author Steven Wofsy of Harvard University.¶ Donald Wuebbles, a University of Illinois climate scientist who wasn't part of the academy study, called it important, especially the call for better warning systems. However, outside scientist Michael Mann of Penn State said he doesn't see the need for a new warning system.¶ "The warning is already there, loud and clear," Mann said in an email. "The changes we are seeing in the Arctic are unprecedented in thousands of years, and they are already having a catastrophic impact on human civilizations, animals, and ecosystems there."

The Arctic is the ideal place to create and establish an early warning system

NSF 2002 [ National Science Foundation, Ozone Hole over Antarctica, Science on the edge Arctic and Antarctic Discoveries, July 1, 2002] Schloss

Life at the margins may be extreme, but it is also fragile.The British Antarctic Survey's first documentation of the Antarctic ozone hole in 1985 and subsequent NSF-funded study of the phenomenon alerted the world to the danger of chlorofluorocarbons, or CFCs. That research team, led by 1999 National Medal of Science winner, Susan Solomon, conducted observations that have significantly advanced our understanding of the global ozone layer and changed the direction of ozone research.¶ Stratospheric ozone protects against ultraviolet radiation. The breakdown of this ozone layer by CFC molecules can have harmful effects on a range of life forms, from bacteria to humans. The long, cold, dark Antarctic winters allow the formation of polar stratospheric clouds, the particles of which form an ideal surface for ozone destruction.The returning sunlight provides energy to start the complex chemical reaction that results in ozone destruction. The ozone hole above Antarctica typically lasts about four months, from mid-August to late November.¶ During this period, increased intensity of ultraviolet radiation has been correlated with extensive DNA damage in the eggs and larvae of Antarctic fish. Embryos of limpets, starfish, and other invertebrates do not grow properly. Other species have developed defenses. The Antarctic pearl wort, a mosslike plant on rocky islands, developed a pigment called flavenoid that makes it more tolerant of ultraviolet radiation.¶ In the northern polar regions, ozone levels in the early 1990s measured ten percent lower than those estimated in the late 1970s. The Arctic does experience ozone depletion, but to a lesser degree than the Antarctic. Unlike the Antarctic, large-scale weather systems disturb the wind flow in the Arctic and prevent the temperature in the stratosphere from being as cold. Therefore fewer stratospheric clouds are formed to provide surfaces for the production of ozone-depleting compounds. Some clouds do form, however, and allow the chemical reactions that deplete ozone. Ozone depletion has a direct effect on human inhabitants, but research has only just begun on the effects of increased ultraviolet radiation on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and societies and settlements in the Arctic.¶ The good news is that countries around the world have agreed to ban the manufacture of CFCs through the Montreal Protocol. The contributions of Antarctic researchers led to swift policy action and because of that the ozone layer should recover in the future. In the meantime, however, NSF-funded research continues to monitor the level of the CFCs still lingering in the atmosphere. The Polar Regions will continue to play an important role as early warning systems for the rest of the globe

Lack of capacity to deal with warming results in devastating impacts – threatens displacing populations and naval readiness

Committee on Future Science Opportunities in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean; National Research Council 2011 (“Future Science Opportunities in Antarctica and the Southern¶ Ocean”//RC)

Globally, rising sea level is expected to threaten the homes and livelihoods of¶ hundreds of millions of people by the second half of this century (see Box 2.2). In an¶ assessment of exposure to coastal flooding by 2070, Miami and New York City ranked¶ 6th and 17th, respectively, in threatened impacts to the world’s major cities (Nicholls,¶ 2007). In particular, rising sea level threatens to cause more frequent flooding by¶ increasing the height of storm surges and the peak level of tidal cycles. Overtopping¶ coastal levees on even a single occasion can have dire consequences, as evidenced by the¶ results of Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans in 2005. Higher sea level also threatens¶ wetland habitats, as the U.S. Climate Change Science Program reported (Titus, 2009),¶ namely that most of the mid-Atlantic coastal wetlands would be lost in the next century if¶ local sea level rises by as much as one meter. The U.S. Navy has taken steps to examinethe potential impacts of climate change, including those from sea level rise, on future¶ naval operations and capabilities (National Research Council, 2011e).¶ Global average sea level is, of course, less relevant than how much sea level will¶ rise in specific locations—primarily where the sea meets where people live and work—¶ and here lies a poignant wrinkle. Loss of ice weakens the local gravitational attraction¶ that the ice sheet exerts on the ocean, leading to a reduction in sea level at the margin of¶ the ice sheet. Further afield from where the ice loss occurs, sea level rises by more than¶ its global average, with the specific locations of maximal rise depending upon the¶ rotation of Earth and the geometry of the ocean basins. Local variations in sea level also¶ depend upon changes in ocean circulation and storm activity. As it happens, loss of ice¶ from West Antarctica would cause about a 15 percent greater sea level rise along the¶ Eastern and Western United States than the global average, with the largest increase¶ centered approximately at Washington, D.C., highlighting how the United States is¶ uniquely exposed to the fate of West Antarctica and the Antarctic ice sheet (Mitrovica,¶ 2009) (Figure 2.2).