ACFI Monitoring Report – September 2015

Background

  • In 2012-13 and 2013-14 annual real growth of about 3.7% and 3.4% in the daily average ACFI were slightly higher than projections of 3.5% and 3.2%, respectively.
  • In 2014-15, the annual real growth was 7.4%. This was higher than the projected real growth of 5.6%. Real growth in 2014-15 comprised of two parts – that attributable to the Workforce supplement redirection (projected at about 2.4%) and that attributable to frailty (projected at about 3.2%).
  • In 2015-16, annual frailty growth was projected at about 3.2%. Indexation was estimated at 1.3% implying a projected nominal growth of about 4.5%.

Summary of September2015 Data

Average daily ACFI subsidyfor the period ofSeptember2015(1 July 2015 to 30September 2015) was $163.77 comparedto a budget of $162.51.

If real growth for the year continues at the rate observed year-to-date, annual growth will be 5.3%; this is higher than the budgeted 3.2%.

New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and the ACTexperienced a real growth higher than the projected national level of 4.9% for the period.

Real cumulative average ACFI growth over the same period in the previous yearis 3.9% for ADL, 4.0% for BEH and 10.0% for CHC.

Figure 1.Cumulative Monthly Trend of Daily Average ACFI Rates – 2015-16 Yeartodate Actual and Projected, 2015-16 Budget and 2014-15 Actual[1]

Table 1: Cumulative Daily Average ACFI Subsidies and Growth Rates by State

State / Jul 2014 To Sep 2014 / Jul 2015 To Sep 2015 / Nominal Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year / Real Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year
Projected National / $152.88 / $162.51 / 6.3% / 4.9%*
Actual National / $152.88 / $163.77 / 7.1% / 5.8%
NSW / $149.12 / $161.15 / 8.1% / 6.7%
VIC / $155.20 / $166.93 / 7.6% / 6.2%
QLD / $152.85 / $161.58 / 5.7% / 4.4%
WA / $158.06 / $168.92 / 6.9% / 5.5%
SA / $156.89 / $165.87 / 5.7% / 4.4%
TAS / $149.38 / $157.37 / 5.4% / 4.0%
ACT / $150.03 / $164.14 / 9.4% / 8.0%
NT / $155.15 / $162.09 / 4.5% / 3.1%

*The difference between the year to date projected national figure presented in the table and the annual projection of 3.2% relates to the month of the report. The cumulative growth over the course of the year is budgeted at 3.2% by 30June2016.

Table 2: Cumulative Daily Average ACFI Subsidies and Growth Rates by Remoteness

Remoteness / Jul 2014 To Sep 2014 / Jul 2015 To Sep 2015 / Nominal Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year / Real Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year
Major Cities of Australia / $156.40 / $167.52 / 7.1% / 5.7%
Inner Regional Australia / $145.64 / $156.22 / 7.3% / 5.9%
Outer Regional Australia / $143.59 / $154.30 / 7.5% / 6.1%
Remote Australia / $130.61 / $130.23 / -0.3% / -1.6%
Very Remote Australia / $130.60 / $143.36 / 9.8% / 8.4%

Table 3: Cumulative Daily Average ACFI Subsidies and Growth Rates by Organization Type

Organisation Type / Jul 2014 To Sep 2014 / Jul 2015 To Sep 2015 / Nominal Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year / Real Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year
Not-For-Profit / $146.00 / $157.07 / 7.6% / 6.2%
For-Profit / $166.02 / $176.67 / 6.4% / 5.0%
Government / $137.82 / $144.46 / 4.8% / 3.5%

Table 4: Cumulative Daily Average ACFI Subsidies and Growth Rates by Provider Size

Provider Size* / Jul 2014 To Sep 2014 / Jul 2015 To Sep 2015 / Nominal Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year / Real Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year
0-41 / $132.80 / $135.46 / 2.0% / 0.7%
41-74 / $143.13 / $151.66 / 6.0% / 4.6%
74-131 / $148.32 / $159.65 / 7.6% / 6.3%
131-499 / $152.20 / $162.02 / 6.5% / 5.1%
500-999 / $156.99 / $169.13 / 7.7% / 6.4%
1000+ / $159.20 / $169.70 / 6.6% / 5.2%

*Based on full time equivalent residents per year for 2014-15. Only includes providers active during July 2014.

Table 5: Cumulative Daily Average ACFI Subsidies and Growth Rates by ACFI Category

Average ACFI Category Subsidy / Jul 2014 To Sep 2014 / Jul 2015 To Sep 2015 / Nominal Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year / Real Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year
ADL / $82.45 / $86.80 / 5.3% / 3.9%
BEH / $25.25 / $26.60 / 5.4% / 4.0%
CHC / $45.18 / $50.37 / 11.5% / 10.0%

Table 6: Cumulative proportion of total days by ACFI Level and ACFI Category

ADL / BEH / CHC
ACFI Level / Jul 2014 To Sep 2014 / Jul 2015 To Sep 2015 / Change ADL / Jul 2014 To Sep 2014 / Jul 2015 To Sep 2015 / Change BEH / Jul 2014 To Sep 2014 / Jul 2015 To Sep 2015 / Change CHC
H / 48.1% / 52.4% / 4.4% / 58.4% / 61.8% / 3.5% / 43.6% / 53.6% / 10.0%
M / 30.4% / 30.2% / -0.2% / 20.9% / 20.7% / -0.1% / 28.0% / 25.5% / -2.5%
L / 20.0% / 16.4% / -3.6% / 14.5% / 12.2% / -2.3% / 22.7% / 17.0% / -5.7%
N / 1.5% / 0.9% / -0.5% / 6.3% / 5.2% / -1.0% / 5.7% / 3.9% / -1.8%

Table 7: Cumulative proportion of total days by ADL Scores and ADL Question

Jul 2014 To Sep 2014 / Jul 2015 To Sep 2015
ADL Question / A / B / C / D / A / B / C / D
Nutrition / 6.4% / 22.0% / 53.0% / 18.6% / 4.8% / 19.1% / 58.0% / 18.2%
Mobility / 4.0% / 7.2% / 37.9% / 50.9% / 2.9% / 5.3% / 37.0% / 54.8%
Personal Hygiene / 0.9% / 8.3% / 13.1% / 77.7% / 0.6% / 7.0% / 11.3% / 81.0%
Toileting / 7.9% / 15.7% / 13.5% / 62.9% / 5.5% / 13.8% / 13.8% / 66.8%
Continence / 19.4% / 3.8% / 5.7% / 71.2% / 16.5% / 3.2% / 5.1% / 75.2%

Table 8: Cumulative proportion of total days by BEH Scores and BEH Question

Jul 2014 To Sep 2014 / Jul 2015 To Sep 2015
BEH Question / A / B / C / D / A / B / C / D
Cognitive Skills / 12.3% / 29.3% / 30.5% / 27.9% / 10.6% / 28.4% / 32.5% / 28.4%
Wandering / 73.5% / 7.7% / 5.0% / 13.8% / 76.6% / 6.8% / 4.6% / 12.0%
Verbal / 14.9% / 13.5% / 17.0% / 54.6% / 13.2% / 12.4% / 17.7% / 56.6%
Physical / 27.3% / 14.4% / 14.7% / 43.6% / 25.9% / 14.4% / 16.3% / 43.5%
Depression / 42.3% / 29.2% / 14.9% / 13.5% / 38.9% / 30.1% / 16.0% / 15.0%

Table 9: Cumulative proportion of total days by CHC Scores

Jul 2014 To Sep 2014 / Jul 2015 To Sep 2015
CHC Question / Q12A / Q12B / Q12C / Q12D / Q12A / Q12B / Q12C / Q12D
Q11A / 0.93% / 0.35% / 0.81% / 0.13% / 0.66% / 0.25% / 0.93% / 0.16%
Q11B / 4.40% / 7.31% / 7.09% / 5.99% / 3.01% / 5.60% / 7.13% / 8.31%
Q11C / 7.31% / 6.39% / 8.72% / 9.43% / 5.32% / 4.78% / 8.36% / 11.84%
Q11D / 3.13% / 9.87% / 20.77% / 7.37% / 1.96% / 8.28% / 24.81% / 8.63%

Figure 2.ACFI Category - Change in Proportion of Total Care Days Year to Date – Year on Year*

*Compares change in proportion of care days for 1 June to 30 September between 2014/15 and 2015/16

[1]Lines represent the cumulative moving averages of the ACFI $ per day for the financial year to date – this is derived by dividing total ACFI claims year to date by the total number of claim days year to date.

The red line is the previous financial year’s actual monthly cumulative average ACFI $ per day (2015-16 prices) from July 2014 to June 2015

The blue line is the monthly cumulative average ACFI $ per day from July 2015 that would be needed to meet the budgeted estimate of 3.2% at June 2016

The black line is actual cumulative monthly average ACFI $ per day for 2015-16 with the dashed line showing a projection of the actuals