Anyshire an Illustration of the Potential Makeup and Mix of Extra Care Housing in an Average Authority

Purpose of Tool
The intention of this tool is to provide an illustration of the range of types and tenures of extra care that might, in time, be delivered within an average authority in order to meet identified needs. Calculations have been based on a number of assumptions which are outlined below.

Population

Anyshire currently has a population of approximately 250,000 of which 36,000 residents are over the age of 65 years. This represents approximately 15% of the overall population.

Anyshire is forecast to have an increase in its older population, rising from 36,000 in 2006 to 48,000 over 65s in 2016, an increase of about 30%. The highest growth is expected to be in the 65-69 and the 80 plus age ranges.

Demand Assumptions for Anyshire

In line with national and local objectives ECH schemes should be both mixed and single tenure.

75% of over 65s are owner occupiers - 75% of ECH will be purchased, however 20% will be available as shared ownership.

The remaining 25% of accommodation will be at market or social rent.

It is anticipated that ECH in Anyshire will provide for older people with mixed dependency needs.

High level dependency needs – 30% of the over 65 population that currently enter a care home will instead go into ECH = 648 Units.

Vulnerable older people – there are 11,000 lone pensioners in Anyshire of which 21% also have a limiting long-term illness. ECH will provide accommodation for 30% of these households = 693 Units.

Accommodation choice – 30% of the over 65 population, look to move to different accommodation of which 12% will look for accommodation with care = 1,296 units.

A small allowance for voids has been made between the units of accommodation planned (2,755) and the numbers taken up (2,637).

Supply Assumptions for Anyshire

The development of ECH schemes will be enabled by:

The decommissioning of 10 existing Council owned and run sheltered housing schemes. Four will be remodelled, and the remaining six will be demolished with the land used for the development of new purpose built housing schemes.

The decommissioning of three existing Council owned and run Residential Care Homes. The homes will be demolished and the land used for the development of new purpose built extra care housing schemes.

The development of schemes by independent sector on council owned land.

The development of schemes by the independent sector on land owned or acquired by them.

The development of schemes on private land or land owned by other public body, eg, NHS.

The development of schemes through section 106 requirements of new large scale developments.

The remodelling of existing sheltered housing schemes or residential care homes by local authorities, registered social landlords, or the independent sector.Summary of Extra Care Schemes in Anyshire

Summary of Extra Care Schemes in Anyshire

No. of Units of Extra Care Required / 2637
No of Units to Buy/Share Own / 1978
No of Units at Market/Social Rent / 659
TOTAL / 2637

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