QUALITY REPORT ON EXTERNAL TRADE STATISTICS
DRAFT
I. Introduction
A. International trade statistics
International Merchandise Trade Statistics (IMTS) measure value and quantity of goods traded between countries.
IMTS are an instrument of primary importance for numerous public and private sector decision makers. For example, international merchandise trade statistics:
- enable National authorities to prepare multilateral and bilateral negotiations within the framework of the trade policy;
- enable to measure the competitivity of national companies on the national and foreign markets
- constitute an essential source of information for balance of payments statistics, national accounts and economic studies;
- help companies to do market research and define their commercial strategy.
This list, which is not exhaustive, demonstrates the diversity of the users and of their needs.
B. What is quality?
Several International Organisations (in particular the IMF, UNSD and Eurostat) have defined lists of quality indicators and Model Quality Reports.
The present Quality report on Trade statistics, compiled in cooperation with Mediterranean Partner Countries (MPCs), is largely based on the Eurostat Quality Report which relies on elements agreed by Eurostat and EU Member States and is based on the following dimensions:
- Relevance is the degree to which statistics meet current and potential users’ needs.
- Timeliness deals with the publication calendar, reference period, etc.
- Accuracy deals with the closeness between the value published and the true unknown population value, including exclusions, thresholds, non-response, adjustments, controls and corrections, confidentiality, etc.
- Accessibility deals with availability, ease of access to data, different formats and conditions of data distribution, etc.
- Clarity deals with ensuring data is adequately documented, assistance in using and interpreting the data, etc.
- Comparability deals with conceptual differences between sets of trade statistics over space and over time.
- Coherence deals with to what extent statistics originating from other sources (such as balance of payments, national accounts, etc.) are compatible with trade statistics.
- Methodological soundness deals with the application of available international standards, guidelines and good practices in the production of IMTS
This list is to a large extent compatible with the indicators suggested by the United Nations for measuring the quality of International Merchandise Trade Statistics.
C. Quality reports and indicators
In order to monitor and analyse data quality, a questionnaire has been sent in 2012 to the following Mediterranean Partner Countries: Algeria (DZ), Egypt (EG), Israel (IL), Jordan (JD), Lebanon (LB), Morocco (MA), occupied Palestinian Territory (PS) and Tunisia (TN).
The present report is based on the …. answers received from the countries.
In order to limit the burden put on MPCs, a simplified list of quality indicators (compared to the list included in the Eurostat Quality Report) has been included in the questionnaire on the following dimensions: relevance, timeliness, accuracy, accessibility and clarity, comparability.
II. Quality Indicators in the Mediterranean Partner Countries
1. Relevance
An efficient tool to measure relevance of data is to carry out regular users’satisfaction surveys. Half of the MPCs carry out such surveys.
Table 1: Do you carry out users’ satisfaction survey specific to trade data?
MPCs: / Regularly / Occasionnaly / NeverDZ
EG / X
IL / X
JO / X
LB
MA
PS / X
SY
TN
Comments
JD / The main issues quoted by users was: they didn’t know how to choose a commodity from the list of commodities
PS / No specific surveys are implemented for trade data, however, PCBS normally organise workshops for main users, data sources to discuss recent improvement, obstacles and needs for users.
Table 2: What are the main gaps between users needs and compiled trade statistics?
MPCs:DZ
EG / Users sometimes need to show data in statistical publication by quantity in addition of value
IL / Monthly data by HS and country should be published every month. Import data by country and commodity are published regularly 20 days after the end of the relevant month.
Monthly exports data by country and commodity will be published regularly until the end of 2011
Monthly indices: monthly imports indices were developed, they will be published from October 2011
Monthly exports indices are being currently developed
JO / Users wanted more details such as by the name of exporter and importer, and this is secret by the low of Department of Statistics, and they wanted the kind of commodities (trade mark).
LB
MA
PS / Quantities are missing from VAT vouchers although they are the main source for trade data, which includes trade with Israel, traders from both sides are not committed to mention quantities in the vouchers. For that reason PCBS couldn't provide quantities for users.
Details BY Commodity and country are sometimes not available on the Monthly basis
SY
TN
Comments
2. Methodological Soundness
Statistics on the trading of goods should follow the international recommendations by United Nations Statistics Division (International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Concepts and Definitions). This manual about general recommendations is updated regularly so that it reflects the changes in the environment of international trade. Furthermore, the classifications for international trade are revised regularly in order to take into account the economic and administrative environment as well as users' needs.
Table 3: Compliance with UNSD recommendations
MPCs / Declared by the MPC(A) / UNSD measurement of lack of compliance (2006 questionnaire)
(B)
DZ
EG / 70%
IL / 66% / 20,6%
JO / More than 80% / 35,5%
LB
MA / 19,6%
PS / 75% / 46,7%
SY / 20,6%
TN / 21,5%
Comments
IL / Israel will start the implementation of general trade system during 2012
* total of columns (A) and (B) not equal to 100% due to non answers to some questions or differences between UNSD and national estimation for column (A)
Table 4: Main conceptual divergences with UNSD recommendations
MPCs / Declared by the MPCDZ
EG / Trade data does not include data on goods that come out the state to reform or run-off
Does not include trade data on goods leased in accordance with lease contract of a financial
Does not include trade data from ships and aircraft
Trade data does not include data in gifts
IL / Trade statistics are not compiled and published according to the General Trade System.
Military imports, trade with the Palestinian Authority are excluded.
JO / We didn’t use residents and non-residents in our trade statistics and any relation depending on that
We didn’t use the general system in foreign trade statistics.
LB
MA
PS / Due to the special case of Palestine mainly trade system and tariff issues
SY
TN
Comments
3. Accuracy
The aim of this paragraph is not necessarily to provide figures on the accuracy of international trade statistics, but more realistically to inform users about the problems faced and existing limitations in ensuring accurate information. Where measures of accuracy are known, they are included.
3.1 Exclusions
There are certain items that are excluded from the official international trade statistics, e.g. items that are of no commercial value. In some cases, trade is excluded for specific domestic reasons. This is the case of military equipment, which is excluded from trade statistics by a majority of MPCs. Inclusion of such goods is nevertheless requested by of international recommendations in order to comply with the full coverage principle.
3.2 Levels of thresholds
In addition, it happens that in some countries, simplified Customs procedures are applied when the value of the transaction is below a certain threshold. Such simplification is applied in 3 MPCs, but with rather low thresholds.
In the 4 concerned MPCs, no adjustment is applied to take in account the transactions below the threshold but the under coverage created consequently is very limited and negligible.
Table 5: Thresholds applied in 2010
Do you apply a threshold? / Level of the thresholdMPCs: / YES / NO / Imports / Exports
DZ / X / 1000 dinars
± 10€ / 1000 dinars
± 10€
EG / X
IL / X / US$ 100 / US$ 50
JO / 25 $ / 15$
LB
MA / X
PS / X / 25 $ / 15$
SY / X / SP15000
± 210€ / SP 50000
± 700€
TN / X
Customs declarations are generally the basic source of information for trade statistics. Nevertheless, for some specific goods or specific transactions, the full coverage cannot be achieved by the use of Customs records only. The following table shows the share of trade measured by other means that Customs records.
Table 6: Trade not collected from Customs data
MPCs / Imports / Exports / CommentsDZ
EG / 15 to 20% / 30 to 35%
IL / 5 to 10% / Aircrafts and ships
JO / about (7-10%) / about 25%
LB
MA
PS / 0% / 1%
SY
TN
In addition, it is possible that a part of the trade is not observed by the usual sources of information (Customs in particular). This lack of declaration can be provisional (late reporting by companies in the case of trade facilitation for instance) or permanent (under-reporting due to informal trade for instance). It is recommended to estimate and include the non observed trade, at least in total trade data. The following table shows the share of non observed trade in MPCs.
Table 7: Share of non observed trade (non response or informal trade)
MPCs / Imports / Exports / CommentsDZ
EG / Unknown / Unknown / No estimation introduced before publication
IL / 8-15% / Estimations are made for export data (first publication)
JO / around 35% / around 25% / All goods that entered by the boards are included
LB
MA
PS / around 35% / around 25% / The mentioned ratios are an estimates, only registered trade from official data sources is published
SY
TN
3.3 Revisions
- Trade figures can be updated several times between the first publication and the subsequent revisions and publications at national level.
The level of revision of trade statistics in the MPCs is generally limited at aggregated level. The revisions have always a positive sign, meaning that revised figures are higher than in the first publication.
Table 8: Impact of revisions on total external trade, 2009 and 2010
Discrepancy (in %) between the first monthly release and last data available (yearly average)
Imports (Value) / Exports (Value)MPCs / 2009 / 2010 / 2009 / 2010
DZ
EG / 10% / 10% / 7% / 5%
IL / 0,2% / 2,0% / 3,0% / 3,0%
JO / 10,0% / 5,0% / 10,0% / 10,0%
LB
MA
PS / between 10-15 % / between 5-7 %
SY
TN
Comments
PS / Monthly indicators are published since December 2010 data.
- Revisions are applied either with a monthly or a yearly frequency. Monthly periodicity of revisions allows to get quicker a good level of update.
Final data for the past year are available within 6 months in a majority of MPCs.
Table 9: Frequency of revisions and delay of availability of the final data
Frequency / Last revision on yearly data / CommentsDZ / Monthly / 70 days
EG / ? / 15 months
IL / Monthly / 3 months / Annual data are considered final on April publications
JO / Monthly / 4 months / Final data should be published after 4 months from the reference period.
MA / Monthly / 6 months
PS / Monthly / Around 11 months / Officially the data should be final after 6 Months from the reference period, however 5% of traders keep their documents after that period to around a year
SY / Monthly / 4 months
TN / Yearly / 5 Months
TR / Monthly / 6 months
3.4 Share of electronic declarations
The data quality is more ensured when input Customs data are collected by electronic systems. Consequently, the share of electronic declarations can be considered as a quality indicator.
Table 10: Electronic declarations
What is the share of electronic declarations in data collected by the Customs (year 2006): / CountryFlow / DZ* / EG / IL / JO / MA / PS / SY / TN
- in percentage of the total number of declarations: / Imports / n.a. / 90% / 100? / 100% / 100 / 100% / 90% / 85%
Exports / n.a. / 90% / 100? / 100% / 100 / 10% / 90% / 85%
- in percentage of the total value of trade : / Imports / n.a. / 30,00% / 100? / 93% / 100 / 27% / 95% / n.a.
Exports / n.a. / 30,00% / 100? / 75% / 100 / 0% / 95% / n.a.
* 45 % of declaring companies are connected in Algeria to the Customs system
3.5 Data validation
Controlling and correcting errors is resource intensive and MPCs national administrations in charge of trade statistics need to make judgements about when to make a correction. Countries use different criteria and employ different methodologies; this can create discrepancies when comparing two countries mirror figures.
Controls can be carried out on input data (declaration level) or at the output level (data produces for publication). Controls can be broadly classified as:
· Basic controls: this means checks on the validity of data and normally concerns all the variables collected. A validity error is when data is not correct therefore it may cause processing problems, it cannot be included in the statistical analysis and so it must be removed or corrected. Examples of this kind of errors are incorrect or missing codes, missing values in the declarations, character data in numeric field and vice versa, etc. All countries use reference tables with an automatic process to control these errors.
· Complex controls: this means checks on the accuracy of data and assesses all possible errors associated with the data. The data is valid according to the previous criterion of validity but it is possibly incorrect therefore it can be processed but, if included, it will distort the statistical analysis. The declaration for example is inconsistent internally in the comparison of the different variables, or it is not consistent with what was submitted in the previous months. The methods used by countries consist in checking one variable against the other within the declaration or between declarations.