December2014 – Analysis of International Trade Trends

Summary

  • According to figures announced by IHS Global Insight Inc. (GI) in December 2014, the global economy is projected to grow 2.7%, exports to grow 1.7%, and imports to grow 1.1% in 2014. Compared with November estimates, global economic growth remained the same while exports and imports were revised 0.9% and 1.1% lower, respectively.
  • According to the latest Taiwan’s Economic Situation Summary issued by the National Development Council in November2014, the overall monitoring indicator forNovember 2014 decreased 3 points to 24 points, maintaining a green signal for the ninth consecutive month. Leading and coincident indicators continued to rise as the economy maintained mild growth.
  • Export orders in November2014increased by US$2.47billion (6.0%) compared with the same month last year to US$43.51 billion. Orders for information and communication products increased 16.6% compared with the same month last year mainly due to the launching of new handheld devices and hot sales of international brand products, which led to a significant increase in assembly, OEM and supply chain orders. The high demand forhandheld devices continued to drive brisk demand for wafer fabrications, packaging and testing, and DRAMs, which resulted in orders for electronic products increasing 8.4% compared with the same month last year.
  • Taiwan’s trade value reached US$49.14 billion in November2014, increasing4.3% compared with the same month last year.Of this, export valueincreased 3.7% to US$26.68 billion while import valueincreased 5.1% to US$22.46 billion. Compared with the same period last year, accumulated trade value from January to November 2014 grew 3.1% to US$541.23 billion, of which export value increased 3.3% to US$288.20 billion and import value increased 3.0% to US$253.03 billion. Accumulated trade surplus increased 5.6% to US$35.17 billion.
  • Compared with the same month last year, exports to China (including Hong Kong) decreased0.3% to US$10.82 billion in November2014; exports to ASEAN (10 countries) increased2.9% to US$4.96 billion; exports to Europe,the US and Japan increased 3.9%,11.4% and 3.0%, respectively. Imports from China (excluding Hong Kong) increased 29.1% to US$4.49 billion while imports from Japandecreased 0.8% to US$3.37billion. Moreover, imports fromASEAN (10 countries)decreased 3.1%while imports from the US increased 7.1%.
  • ObservingNovember’s trade in goods, exports of all goods increased, except forplastics and articles thereof (HS39), mineral fuels (HS27),and organic chemicals (HS29), which decreased 6.1%, 18.1%, and 9.3%, respectively. Of those exports that increased, exports of miscellaneous chemical products (HS38) increased the most at12.8%compared with the same month last year, followed by products of iron or steel (HS73) at 10.9%. Accumulated exports from January to November of plastics and articles thereof (HS39), mineral fuels (HS27),precision instruments and apparatus (HS90), and organic chemicals (HS29) all decreased compared with the same period last year, of which mineral fuels (HS27) decreased the most at10.7% mainly due to the decrease in global demand forpetroleum, oils obtained from bituminous minerals, and preparations thereof (HS2710). Exports of all other product categories increased compared with the same period last year, of which miscellaneous chemical products (HS38) showed the most growth at 9.3%.

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