ChangeWave Research: Online Shopping – Amazon vs. eBay
ChangeWave Research Report:
Online Shopping -Amazon vs. eBay
Amazon Leads – But isa Slugfest Brewing with eBay?
Overview
During May 2005, we conducted a survey on the online shopping preferences of ChangeWave Alliance members. A total of 1,440 members participated in an initial Benchmark survey, and 659participated in a targeted follow-up survey.
The results clearly show that while their business models differ, Amazon and eBay increasingly compete against each other in the battle for domination of the online shopping world.
Bottom Line: Amazon(45%) is the current 800 lb. gorilla of the online shopping industry, ranking as the top site respondents have used to purchase items online over the past 90 days, and as the top primary site for “one-stop” shopping.Better than one-in-five respondents say over the next year they’ll buy more items on Amazon than this year.
eBay(29%) ranks as the number two most popular Internet shopping site, with 15% of respondents saying they will be buying moreitems on eBay next year than they do currently. Importantly, eBay’s customers exhibit somewhat greater strength of support for eBay, than Amazon’s do for Amazon.
At the same time, Branded Retailer Sites(28%) – such as Nordstrom’s, Best Buy, etc. – are also gaining market share, and may pose a significant long term threat to the two current leaders in the online shopping marketplace.
Here’s a close-uplook at the data:
- Amazon continues tomaintain a firm lead in the online shopping industry, ranking as the top site respondents used to purchase items online over the past 90 days. Amazon (37%) also ranks as the top primary site for “one-stop” shopping, 17-points ahead of number two eBay (20%).
Nearly three-in-four respondents (73%)report they’ve purchased at least one item on Amazon in the last year. Importantly, 19% say they “Now Buy More” items on Amazon than a year ago, while12% say they “Now Buy Less.” Moreover, 21% say that over the next year they’ll buy more itemson Amazon than this year,while6% say less.
- eBay ranks asthe second most popular Internet shopping siterespondents used to purchase items online over the past 90 days. It is also thenumber two most popular primary site for “one-stop” shopping.
One-in-two respondents (50%) report they’ve purchased items through eBay during the past year, impressive but well behind the 73% who say they have purchased itemsfrom Amazon.
A total of 17% say they “Now Buy More” items on eBay than a year ago, while 11% say they “Now Buy Less.” Looking ahead, 15% report they will be buying moreitems on eBay next year than they do currently. Still, that figure is trumped by the 21% who report that next year they’ll be buying more items on Amazon.
Of course, eBay’s primary focus is on bidding, buying and selling online, and nearly three-in-ten respondents report they’ve done so through eBay in the past six months – 23% monthly, 5% weekly and1% daily.Zeroing in just on selling, 22%say they’ve sold items on eBay (11% multiple times; 11% only a couple of times), while another 20% say they haven’t yet but plan to soon.
In comparison, only 4% say they’ve sold on Amazon and another 4% say they haven’t yet but plan to soon.
Amazon: A Potential Achilles’ Heel?
We asked customers of bothAmazon and eBay if any of their business had been lost to some other website over the past 12 months. While better than one-in-three (35%) Amazon customers said they’d “moved” some of their business away from Amazon, only 23% of eBay’s customers said they’d “moved” some of their business away from eBay.
Thus we seea potential Achilles’ heel for Amazon and an indicator of greaterrelative coresupport among eBay customers.
The chart below shows where each company has been losing business to its competitors over the past 12 months. Among other things, we note that while 10% of Amazon’s customers report eBay haspicked up some of their“moved”business, only 6% of eBay’s customers report Amazon has picked up some of their“moved” business.
Websites Amazon and eBay have lost Business to over past 12 months
Websites Benefiting from Amazon’sLost Business / Websites Benefiting from eBay’s
Lost Business
eBay.com / 10 pctg. pts. / -----
Amazon.com / ----- / 6 pctg. pts.
Overstock.com / 4 pctg. pts. / 4 pctg. pts.
Barnes & Noble / 3 pctg. pts. / 0 pctg. pts.
Buy.com / 2 pctg. pts. / 2 pctg. pts.
Other Specific Websites / 9 pctg. pts. / 12 pctg. pts.
Other General Websites / 8 pctg. pts. / 2 pctg. pts.
In a further indication of greater relative customer strength of support for eBay, 8% of total respondents said eBay was their overall favorite website compared to only 5% who said Amazon was their favorite website.
The ChangeWave Alliance is a group of 5,000 highly qualified business, technology, and medical professionals in leading companies of select industries—credentialed professionals who spend their everyday lives working on the frontline of technological change. ChangeWave surveys its Alliance members on a range of business and investment research and intelligence topics, collects feedback from them electronically, and converts the information into proprietary quantitative and qualitative reports.
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Summary of Key Findings
Table of Contents
Summary of Key Findings...... 3
The Findings...... 5
(A) Overall Online Shopping Trends ...... 5
(B) eBay vs. Amazon ...... 7
ChangeWave Research Methodology...... 11
About ChangeWave Research...... 12
I. The Findings
During May, 2005, we conducted a survey on the online shopping preferences of ChangeWave Alliance members. A total of 1,440 members participated in an initial Benchmark survey, and 659 participated in a targeted follow-up survey.
(A) Overall Online Shopping Trends
(1) Question Asked: Which of the following Internet sites did you use to purchase something for yourself or as a gift for someone else over the previous 90 days?
CurrentSurvey
May ‘05 / Previous
Survey
Jan ‘05
Amazon.com / 45% / 48%
eBay.com / 29% / 30%
A branded retailer with a site (e.g. Nordstrom, Best Buy) / 28% / 27%
Dell.com / 12% / 15%
Travelocity.com / 9% / 11%
Expedia.com / 8% / 11%
Overstock.com / 8% / 11%
Buy.com / 7% / 7%
1-800-flowers.com / 6% / 4%
Yahoo! Shopping / 6% / 6%
Wal-Mart.com / 5% / 7%
Priceline.com / 3% / 4%
PC Mall.com / 2% / 2%
CDW.com / 1% / 1%
MSN Shopping / 1% / 1%
Red Envelope.com / 1% / 1%
Shopping.com / 1% / 1%
BlueNile.com / 0% / 1%
Gateway.com / 0% / 1%
Stamps.com / 0% / 1%
None of the Above / 15% / 13%
Other / 17% / 15%
Past 90 Days - Top Internet Purchase Sites.Amazon(45%) is the current 800 lb. gorilla of the online shopping industry, ranking as the top site respondents have used to purchase items online over the past 90 days, followed by eBay (29%) and “A Branded Retailer with a Site(28%).
(1A) Question Asked: And which are you most likely to use to purchase something for yourself or as a gift for someone else over the next 90 days?
CurrentSurvey
May ‘05 / Previous
Survey
Jan ‘05
Amazon.com / 43% / 42%
eBay.com / 27% / 25%
A branded retailer with a site (e.g. Nordstrom, Best Buy) / 26% / 24%
Overstock.com / 8% / 9%
Dell.com / 8% / 10%
Travelocity.com / 6% / 7%
Expedia.com / 6% / 7%
Buy.com / 5% / 5%
Yahoo! Shopping / 5% / 3%
Wal-Mart.com / 4% / 4%
Priceline.com / 2% / 3%
1-800-flowers.com / 2% / 2%
CDW.com / 1% / 1%
MSN Shopping / 1% / 1%
PC Mall.com / 1% / 1%
Shopping.com / 0% / 1%
Red Envelope.com / 0% / 0%
BlueNile.com / 0% / 0%
Gateway.com / 0% / 0%
Stamps.com / 0% / 0%
None of the Above / 14% / 16%
*Note: In the May 2004 survey the question that was asked was “Which one or two of the following Internet sites are you most likely to use within the next 6 months to purchase something for yourself or as a gift for someone else?”
Next 90 Days - Top Internet Purchase Sites. Amazon(43%) is also the top site respondents say they are most likely to use over the next 90 days, up 1-point from January 2005. Again, eBay (27%) is second, up 2-points, followed by “ABranded Retailer with a Site” (26%), also up 2-points.
(2) Question Asked: Which of the following do you use as your primary “one-stop” shopping website?
Amazon.com / 37%eBay.com / 20%
Buy.com / 4%
Overstock.com / 4%
Wal-Mart.com / 2%
Target.com / 0%
Do Not Shop Online / 9%
Other / 18%
Amazon Also Tops in “One-Stop” Shopping. Amazon (37%) ranks as the top primary site for “one-stop” shopping, 17-points ahead of number two eBay (20%).
(3) Question Asked: Over the past year, what merchandise have you bought online from a website for the first time (i.e., that you had never bought online previously)?
(n=636)
Consumer Electronics / 37%Leisure-Time Goods / 24%
Clothing & Accessories / 13%
Home Furnishings / 10%
Automotive/Boat Equipment and Products / 8%
Household Appliances/Items / 8%
Perishables (Food, Flowers…) / 6%
Medical Items / 4%
Travel (Airlines, Hotels, Car Rentals) / 3%
Other / 5%
Further Breakdown in Consumer Electronics Products (37%):
Computer Hardware/Equipment / 9%Computer Accessories/Software / 8%
Cameras (Digital and Video) / 7%
Other Consumer Electronics / 6%
Music Downloads/Players / 3%
Other Consumer Electronics / 5%
Further Breakdown in Leisure-Time Goods (24%):
CDs/DVDs/Books / 11%Sporting Goods / 4%
Antiques/Collectibles / 2%
Gardening Materials / 2%
Toys & Games / 2%
Other Leisure-Time Goods / 3%
(B) eBay vs. Amazon
(4) Question Asked: Over the past year, how many items have you purchased on Amazon/eBay?
Amazon / eBayNone / 27% / 50%
1 Item / 10% / 11%
2 or 3 items / 24% / 15%
4 or 5 items / 15% / 9%
6 to 12 items / 14% / 9%
More than 12 items / 10% / 6%
Amazon Purchasing Activity Higher than eBay. Nearly three-in-four respondents (73%) report they’ve purchased at least one item on Amazon in the last year. While still impressive, only one-half (50%) say they’ve purchased at least one item on eBay over the past year.
(5A) Question Asked: How does your shopping at Amazon/eBay this year compare to last year? Would you say that you now buy more items on Amazon/eBay, less items on Amazon/eBay, or has there been no change compared to a year ago?
Amazon / eBayNow Buy More Items on Amazon/eBay Than I did a Year Ago / 19% / 17%
Now Buy Less Items on Amazon/eBay Than I did a Year Ago / 12% / 11%
Did Not Buy Items on Amazon/eBay Either This Year or a Year Ago / 17% / 34%
No Change / 50% / 37%
More Buyingon Amazon eBay Than a Year Ago. Nineteen percent(19%) say they “Now Buy More” items on Amazon than a year ago, while 12% say they “Now Buy Less.” A total of 17% say they “Now Buy More” items on eBay than a year ago, while 11% say they “Now Buy Less.”
(5B) Question Asked:And looking ahead, how will your shopping at Amazon/eBay next year compare to this year? Do you think that you will buy more items on Amazon/eBay next year, less items on Amazon/eBay next year, or will there be no change compared to this year?
Amazon / eBayWill Buy More Items on Amazon/eBay Next Year / 21% / 15%
Will Buy Less Items on Amazon/eBay Next Year / 6% / 6%
Will Not Buy Any Items on Amazon/eBay Next Year / 10% / 21%
No Change / 48% / 33%
Don't Know / 15% / 25%
Next Year More Buying Continues for Amazon, eBay Less Assured.Looking ahead, respondents indicate that increases in Amazon buying willcontinue next year –21% say that over the next year they’ll buy more items on Amazon than this year – while 6% say less. Somewhat less positive about plans for eBay buying next year,15% report they will be buying moreitems on eBay next year than they do currently.
(6) Question Asked: eBay has become a very popular website for buying and selling merchandise online. Over the past 6 months, how frequently did you or someone in your household bid, buy, or sell items on eBay?
(6A) Question Asked: Over the next 6 months, how frequently do you or someone in your household plan to bid, buy, or sell items on eBay?
ActualeBay Activity
Past 6Months / Planned
eBay Activity
Next 6 Months
Daily / 1% / 1%
Weekly / 5% / 6%
Monthly / 23% / 23%
Very Rarely / 29% / 34%
Never / 40% / 24%
Don't Know / 1% / 13%
eBay Activity. eBay’s primary focus is on bidding, buying and selling online, and nearly three-in-ten respondents report they’ve done so through eBay in the past six months – 23% monthly, 5% weekly and 1% daily.
(7)Question Asked:Have you ever sold anything on Amazon/eBay?
Amazon / eBayYes, multiple times / 1% / 11%
Yes, but only a couple of times / 3% / 11%
No, but I plan to soon / 4% / 20%
No, and I have no plans to / 92% / 56%
Selling Online. Twenty-two percent(22%) of respondents say they’ve sold items on eBay (11% multiple times; 11% only a couple of times) and another 20% say they haven’t but plan to soon. In comparison, only 4% say they’ve sold on Amazon and another 4% say they haven’t yet but plan to soon.
(7A) Question Asked: Has Amazon/eBay lost any of your business to some other website over the past 12 months? (If yes, please name the competitor's web site.)
Amazon Respondents (n=497)
eBay Respondents (n=202)
Amazon / eBayYes / 35% / 23%
No / 65% / 77%
Websites Amazon and eBay have lost Business to over the past 12 months:
Websites Benefiting from Amazon’sLost Business / WebsitesBenefiting fromeBay’s
Lost Business
Total Lost Business / 35 pctg. pts. / 23 pctg. pts
eBay.com / 10 pctg. pts. / --
Amazon.com / -- / 6pctg. pts.
Overstock.com / 4 pctg. pts. / 4 pctg. pts.
Barnes & Noble / 3 pctg. pts. / 0pctg. pts.
Buy.com / 2 pctg. pts. / 2 pctg. pts.
Other Specific Website / 9 pctg. pts. / 12 pctg. pts.
Other General Websites / 8 pctg. pts. / 2 pctg. pts.
Amazon: A Potential Achilles’ Heel? While better than one-in-three (35%) Amazon customers said they’d “moved” some of their business away from Amazon over the past 12 months, only 23% of eBay’s customers said they’d “moved” some of their business away from eBay. Note that while 10% of Amazon’s customers report eBay has picked up some of their “moved” business, only 6% of eBay’s customers report Amazon has picked up some of their “moved” business.
(8) Question Asked:Overall, how satisfied are you with each of the following websites?
Satisfied / Unsatisfied / Very Satisfied / Somewhat Satisfied / Somewhat Unsatisfied / Very UnsatisfiedAmazon.com / 92% / 8% / 44% / 48% / 5% / 3%
eBay.com / 91% / 10% / 41% / 50% / 8% / 2%
Soaring Satisfaction. Respondents give very high satisfaction ratings to both Amazon (92%) and eBay (91%). Only 3% say they are Very Unsatisfied with Amazon and 2% say the same for eBay.
(9) Question Asked: For each of the following websites, please rate how frequently you click on advertisements or sponsored links:
Very Often / SomewhatOften / Rarely / Never
eBay.com / 1% / 7% / 43% / 49%
Amazon.com / 1% / 11% / 48% / 41%
(10) Question Asked: Finally, what is your overall favorite website and why?
eBay.com / 8%Amazon.com / 5%
Note that there were other responses to this open-ended question that are not shown.
eBay Beats Amazon for Overall Favorite Website. When asked to name their overall favorite website, 8% of respondents said eBay compared with 5% for Amazon.
II. ChangeWave Research Methodology
This report presents the findings of the latest ChangeWave Alliance surveys on Online Shopping trendsconducted during May2005. A total of 1,440 members participated, and 659 of these respondents participated in a targeted follow-up.
The Alliance’s proprietary research and business intelligence gathering system is based upon the systematic gathering of valuable business and investment information directly over the Internet from accredited members.
ChangeWave surveys its Alliance members on a range of business and investment research and intelligence topics, collects feedback from them electronically, interprets and reconciles the information in a cohesive manner and converts the information into valuable quantitative and qualitative reports.
The Alliance has assembled its membership team from senior technology and business executives in leading companies of select industries. Nearly 3 out of every 5 members (58%) have advanced degrees (e.g., Master’s or Ph.D.) and 94% have at least a four-year bachelor’s degree.
The business and investment intelligence provided by the Alliance provides a real-time view of companies, technologies and business trends in key market sectors, along with an in-depth perspective of the macro economy – well in advance of other available sources.
III. About ChangeWave Research
ChangeWave Research, a subsidiary of Phillips Investment Resources, LLC, identifies and quantifies "change" in industries and companies through surveying a network of thousands of business executives and professionals working in more than 20 industries.
ChangeWave has a very unique asset in its 5,000-member Alliance. We have assembled our membership team from a broad cross section of more than 20 vertical markets such as telecom, semiconductors, data storage, and biotechnology, along with a wide range of professional disciplines including CIOs, IT managers and programmers, executive management, scientists, engineers and sales personnel.
The ChangeWave Alliance is composed of senior technology and business executives in leading companies - credentialed professionals who spend their everyday lives working on the frontline of technological change.
This proprietary research and business intelligence gathering system provides a real-time view of companies, technologies and business trends in key market sectors along with an in-depth perspective of the macro economy - well in advance of other available sources. ChangeWave surveys its 5,000Alliance members on a wide range of investment research topics and converts the findings into valuable investment and business intelligence reports. ChangeWave delivers its products and services on the Web at
ChangeWave Research does not make any warranties, express or implied, as to results to be obtained from using the information in this report. Investors should obtain individual financial advice based on their own particular circumstances before making any investment decisions based upon information in this report.
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