BEACON HILL STRIDERS: RESOURCE CENTRE
BEACON HILL STRIDERS: Resource Centre
Predicting Performance Potential
BASED on 1 MILE Time
The following was originally developed in 2007, and used to inform the youngsters that I advised how their 1M best time equated with other distances they were too young to do. The purpose was to encourage them to identify what they could achieve in the long-term, thereby providing an incentive to carry on training and competing.
The TABLE below aims to set out potential performances at various distances based on your current 1 Mile time, assuming that you follow an appropriate endurance-based training programme. The times are based on current world records, & with reference to the known performances of a range of athletes.
The times are as follows:
Performances based on 1 mile TimesOne mile / 3K / 5K / 8K / 5M / 10K / 16K / 10M / Half-Marathon / Marathon
3-45 / 7-30 / 12-45 / 21-00 / 26-30 / 44-00 / 59-00 / 2-05-30
4-00 / 8-00 / 13-35 / 22-20 / 28-10 / 46-30 / 62-30 / 2-13-00
4-15 / 8-30 / 14-25 / 23-40 / 29-50 / 48-40 / 65-40 / 2-19-50
4-30 / 9-00 / 15-15 / 25-05 / 31-30 / 51-30 / 69-30 / 2-28-00
4-45 / 9-30 / 16-05 / 26-30 / 33-10 / 54-30 / 73-30 / 2-36-30
5-00 / 10-00 / 16-55 / 27-55 / 34-50 / 57-10 / 77-10 / 2-44-20
5-15 / 10-30 / 17-45 / 29-25 / 36-30 / 60-30 / 81-30 / 2-53-30
5-30 / 11-00 / 18-35 / 30-55 / 38-10 / 64-00 / 86-00 / 3-03-00
5-45 / 11-30 / 19-25 / 32-20 / 39-50 / 67-40 / 90-40 / 3-12-50
6-00 / 12-00 / 20-15 / 33-55 / 41-30 / 70-30 / 94-30 / 3-21-00
Note 1: these times are meant to be approximations, but they do factor very well for mile times up to 5 minutes. For mile times slower than 5 minutes, I am taking a little more of a guess on this.
Note 2: If you are 14/15/16 & currently running a mile in 5 minutes, you could expect to lower your mile time by up to 30 seconds as you get older (& stronger!, faster!) and increase your training loads. By the same token if you are 16/17 and running 4-30 miles, then an improvement of 15-20 seconds is quite reasonable to expect.
Note 3: If your current (or prospective) mile time is 5 minutes, you could potentially as a senior runner run a 34-30 (10K), 77-10 (H/M), & 2-44 (Marathon) even if you never improved your Mile time. (This would certainly make you a “player” on the local road-running scene)
Note 4: If your prospective mile time is 4-15 minutes, you could potentially as a senior runner run a 29-50 (10K), 65-40 (H/M), & 2-19 (Marathon). (This would certainly make you a serious “player” at National (UK) level)
Alan Maddocks, 2015 ©