A New Benchmark for Radio Listening

MEDIA RELEASE

4 November 2013

A new benchmark for radio listening

SAARF RAMS Nov 2013 establishes a new trend line for radio listening data in South Africa, following the inclusion of new population data into the survey.

The inclusion of population estimates modelled on the latest data from Statistics SA’s Census 2011 has had a marked effect on this release of RAMS, as was the case for AMPS Jun 2013, released in October this year.

For the past decade, the annual population estimates applied to SAARF’s media audience surveys have been based on the population data from Census 2001. Since official census data is only available every ten years, population estimates must be made to ensure that SAARF’s media currencies stay abreast of population changes in the country. Estimates of actual population levels are modelled by SAARF’s demographic contractor, IHS, using sources of data such as birth, death, emigration, immigration, and AIDS infection rates.

With the recent release of Census 2011 data down to a magisterial district level, SAARF has now incorporated this 2011 population data into RAMS and AMPS, with TAMS following suit early next year.

This release of RAMS reflects mid-2013 population updates, incorporating results from Census 2011, and estimated up to 2013 levels by IHS.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE that this population update establishes a new trend line for the medium. An additional 2.279-million adults have been included in the RAMS universe, which has had a significant impact on the resultant audience figures.

RAMS Nov 2013 therefore sets a new benchmark for all radio consumption data, since it is impossible to say with statistical certainty whether changes seen in this RAMS release over previous surveys are due to the large changes in population data, or to actual market forces.

Any changes in media consumption may or may not be an indication of shifting performance in the marketplace.

RAMS Nov2013 CANNOT,therefore,be compared with any previousRAMS releases.

Population figures, updated to 2013 IHS estimates, are:

37.214-million, which is an increase of 6.5% over the previous establishment survey
(AMPS Dec 12, Jan-Dec 2012). This is an additional 2.279-million adults in the market.

The household population has increasedby 6.4% to 14.978-million: an additional 904000 households.

(For more detailed information on the population data changes caused by the population update, please see page 8 onwards.)

In addition to the population update, RAMS Nov 2013 also has a new small-urban/rural database.

This database is introduced twice a year for RAMS. This November release incorporates the second update for 2013, with data from the January-June 2013 fieldwork period.

This national November release was created by merging this new small-urban/rural data with the last two large-urban RAMS waves.

RAMS releases will carry this same small-urban/rural sample component until November next year as there are no small-urban/rural interviews in the current July-December 2013 fieldwork period.

Finally, RAMS Nov 2013shows the effects of coverage changes which now make the sample 100% national.

Previous surveys have sampled 98.5% of the total adult population, excluding a tiny percentage of minority sub-populations which couldn’t be identified for sampling in specific areas.

For example, since the distribution of blacks outside of Cape Town was sparse, it was not possible to identify a specific area to sample for this group. If, during fieldwork, black people outside of Cape Town were picked up, they were interviewed and given the weight for blacks in that area, but wouldn’t be upweighted to represent the whole of the Western Cape.

The RAMS sample has now been expanded, primarily in the Western Cape.but to a less-noticeable extent in all other provinces, giving the survey100% coverage of the adult population.

Media with a Western Cape focus should bear this in mind when looking at their data; coverage of Cape Town remains the same, but outside of the metropole, the universe expansion will be evident in the data.

All figures quoted are for adults, aged 15+.

Due to the population updates applied to this release of RAMS, a new benchmark for radio listening has been set. No comparison can be made to levels seen in the previous RAMS release.

TOTAL LISTENING LEVELS ARE:

• Seven-day listening (p7d) – 89.1% of the adult (15+) population consumes radio.
• Average Monday to Fridaylistening– 68.9%
• Saturday listening – 65.5%
• Sunday listening – 65.3%

LISTENING LEVELS FOR LARGE URBAN AND SMALL-URBAN/RURAL AREAS

On average, South African adults listen to the radio for three hours, 32 minutes a day – three minutes up on the previous release.

Average listening per week is 24 hours, 42 minutes a week, rising back to levels last seen in RAMS Oct 2012.

Time spent listening in large urban areas is three hours, 20 minutes on average per day, while in small-urban/rural areas, it is three hours and 45 minutes per day.

As stated earlier,RAMS Nov 2013 sets a new benchmark for radio consumption, with this release marking the beginning of a new “reality” for the medium.

Media data cannot be compared to previous surveys. Changes seen are not necessarily true increases or decreases, but rather a re-adjustment, giving the market a better estimate of reality based on the latest population information.

The effects of the population changes cannot be unpacked from the current figures by removing additional audience groups, or adjusting declined demographics upwards.

Media inflation calculations are therefore also invalid, since it is statistically unsound to make comparisons with previous RAMS releases.

COMMERCIAL RADIO

AUDIENCE FIGURES FOR NEW STATIONS

This RAMS release gives new station Vuma 103 FM its first full 12-month audience result: 0.3% of all adults listen to it across the week, giving the station a p7d audience of 129000.

Smile 90.4 FM has its first large-urban audience result in this release: 0.1% listenership (p7d), with a weekly audience of 27000.

COMMUNITY RADIO

Community radio’s weekly reach is 23.5%, with 8.728-million listeners in total. Average Monday to Friday listenership is 11.7%, with 4.371-million listeners.

TOP 3 COMMUNITY STATIONS (p7d listenership within each province)

GAUTENG

1. Jozi FM: 5.3% reach, 506000 listeners.
2. Thetha FM: 2.3%, 220000.
3. Kasie FM: 1.7%, 160000.

KWAZULU-NATAL

1. Radio Khwezi: 2.1% reach, 148000 listeners.
2. IzwiloMzansi 98.0 fm: 1.9%, 136000.
3. Imbokodo FM: 1.8%, 128000.

WESTERN CAPE

1. Radio Tygerberg 104 fm: 6.8% reach, 297000 listeners.
2. Radio Zibonele: 6.4%, 278000.
3. The Voice of the Cape: 6.3%, 273000.

EASTERN CAPE

1. Alfred Nzo Community Radio: 6.0% reach, 273 000 listeners.
2. Unitra Community Radio: 5.9%, 270000.
3. Inkonjane FM: 5.8%, 266000.

NORTH WEST

1. Mafikeng Community Radio: 7.0% reach, 174000 listeners.
2. Radio Mafisa: 3.5%, 87000.
3. Star FM: 2.9%, 73 000

MPUMALANGA

1. Radio Bushbickridge: 4.4% reach, 124000 listeners.
2. Emalahleni FM: 3.9%, 110000.
3. Kasi FM: 1.6%, 45000.

LIMPOPO

1. Sekhukhune Community Radio (SK FM): 4.9% reach, 178000 listeners.
2. Makhado FM: 2.6%, 96000.
3. Univen Community Radio: 2.1%, 77000.

FREE STATE

1. Motheo FM: 8.8% reach, 173000 listeners.
2. QwaQwa Radio: 7.6%, 149000.
3. Mosupatsela FM Stereo: 5.5%, 109000.

NORTHERN CAPE

1. Radio Teemaneng Stereo: 15.7% reach, 120000 listeners.
2. Kurara FM: 5.8%, 45000.
3. Radio NFM: 4.7%, 36000.

SAARF AMPS is the establishment survey for SAARF RAMS, representing the entire adult population (aged 15+) of South Africa.

The impact of the recent population update is discussed below, based on the latest AMPS release, SAARF AMPS Jun 13 (July 2012-June 2013), and referring back to the previous AMPS release, AMPS Dec 12
(Jan-Dec 2012).

The changes in population have not been uniform across the country. Each province has been affected to a different extent, with a very clear migration taking place to the country’s large economic centres.

The top five municipalities – Johannesburg, Cape Town, Durban, Pretoria and Ekurhuleni – now contribute 53.2% of South Africa’s economic output.

Almost all population increases have been into the metro areas, which are significantly up by over two million. Consequently, the country’s proportion of urban/rural has shifted, with the rural component in decline.

The urban:rural split is now 64.2%:35.8%, compared to 62%:38% in AMPS Dec 12.

GAUTENG

Gauteng has been significantly affected by the population changes, with its population growing by 16%.The province now has a population of 9.516-million, an increase of 1.316-million people over AMPS Dec 12.The province is currently home to 25.6% of the total adult population, up from 23.5% previously.

All metros in the province are showing substantially increased populations:

• Greater Johannesburg, up 451000 adults to 2.578-million;
• Soweto, up 219000 people, pushing it over the million mark to 1.023-million;
• Reef, up 527000 to 3.889-million; and
• Pretoria, up 312000 to 1.927-million.

KWAZULU-NATAL

This province has experienced a significant decline in terms of its contribution to total population. Gains in other provinces, and a loss of 43000 adults in KwaZulu-Natal has decreased this province’s proportion to 19%, from 20.4% in AMPS Dec 12. KwaZulu-Natal’s population is now 7.075-million.

The decline has been in rural areas, with the populations of Durban and Pietermaritzburg remaining comparable to the levels of the previous survey.

EASTERN CAPE

South Africa’s third-biggest province now contributes significantly less to overall population, with its proportion dropping from 13.4% to 12.3%. A loss of 107000 adults takes its population to 4.565-million. As in other provinces, losses were seen in non-metro areas, with Port Elizabeth and new metropoleUitenhage holding their own.

WESTERN CAPE

The Western Cape’s population grew by 22.8%, with an additional 809000 people added to the pot. The total population is 4.365-million, representing 11.7% of the total population (up from 10.2%). Of this 809000 growth, about half was due to a real increase in population, and half to coverage changes (discussed on page 3 of this release).

LIMPOPO

Has experienced a significant decline, with a loss of 78000 adults reducing its overall proportion to 9.8%, from 10.7% previously. Its population is now 3.646-million. Mining issues are likely to have been a causative factor.

MPUMALANGA

Gained 336000 adults. Its population is 2.824-million, or 7.6% of total.

NORTH WEST

Has gained 192000 adults, taking its population to 2.496-million. It now contributes 6.7% of the total population.

FREE STATE

Down from 5.9% to 5.3% of the total population, with a loss of 114000 adults. Metros held their own while rural areas declined. The provincial population is 1.964-million.

NORTHERN CAPE

Experienced a slight decrease of 32000 adults, with a stable population proportion of 2.1%, or 764000.

Looking at the population as a whole, the distribution of adults by age has changed significantly.

There has been a large decline in the total number of 15-24-year-olds – 263000 down – which, coming out of the growth of the population as a whole, means this group has declined in actual numbers, rather than just proportionally. This age group represents 25.7% of the total population, down from 28.1% in the previous survey.

The 25-34 age group has shown significant growth, upping its proportion by 9.7% to 24.8% of all adults. This group saw an additional 1.337-million join its ranks. Immigration is a large factor here.

Despite a rise of 300000 in number, the 35-49 age group declined by 2.8% proportionally, from 25.2% in AMPS Dec 12 to 24.5% currently.

The 50+ age group grew its numbers by 904000, increasing its proportion of the total population from 24.0% in the previous survey, to 25.0% currently. This increase in the 50+ demographic has not come through from any one population group, but from all population groups.

The black population has been the biggest beneficiary of the 2.279-million rise in population. There are
2.2-million more black adults in the AMPS universe, taking this group up to 28.985-million, or 77.9% of total (over the previous survey’s 76.7%).

The white population is down by 375000, to
3.833-million. It now represents10.3% of the total population, compared to 12.0% previously.

The Coloured population has kept pace with previous levels (rising from 8.6% to 9.2%), with a gain of 403000 people, taking it up to 3.410-million.

The Indian population has remained proportionallystable (2.6%), despite a growth of 50000 in total. This group’s total is now 986 000.

While the current LSMs are not comparable either in thousands or in percentages to previous AMPS releases, at a top level the quotas remain very similar to those seen in AMPS Dec 12.

Average household income shows a similar distribution across the income brackets as in the previous survey. The population is slightly more well off, with the average household income per month now R9364.

ends

Note to the editor:

The South African Audience Research Foundation (SAARF) is the provider of research data to the advertising, marketing and media industries. Its main objective is to direct and publish media and product/brand research for the benefit of its stakeholders, thereby providing data for target marketing and a common currency for the buying and selling of media space and time. The information is also used by media owners for strategic programme and editorial planning.

SAARF conducts a number of major media and product/brand surveys. The All Media and Products Survey (AMPS®), includes extensive information on media as well as products, services, brands, attitudes, interests and activities and is South Africa's only free source of data on nearly 120 product categories and over 1 500 brands. Other important surveys are the Radio Audience Measurement Survey (RAMS®); the Television Audience Measurement Survey (TAMS®) and the SAARF Out of Home Media Survey (OHMS).SAARF also provides comprehensive information on target groups, and supplies segmentation tools which include the SAARF Living Standards Measure (LSM®), SAARF Life Stages, SAARF Lifestyles and SAARF Attitudes, which are widely used for segmenting target markets.

For more information, please contact:

The South African Audience Research Foundation (SAARF)

Tel: (011) 463-5340

Email:

Website:

Distributed on behalf of SAARF by:

Bridget von Holdt, Glasshouse Communication Management

Tel: (011) 646-9992/082-610-0650

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