Morice Land & Resource Management Plan
A Component of British Columbia’s
Land Use Strategy
Morice Land and Resource Management Plan
Pacific Analytics Inc. 3
TABLE OF CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY i
1.0 INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Overview 1
1.1.1 Socio-Economic Analysis 2
1.2 Land Use Planning 3
1.3 The Morice Base Case Management Regime 4
2.0 SOCIO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS 9
2.1 Community Profiles 9
2.2 Demographic Trends Since 1981 11
2.2.1 Population Growth and Change 11
2.2.2 Migration 14
2.2.3 Demographic Outlook 14
2.3 Labour Force, Employment and Earnings 17
2.3.1 Labour Force 17
2.3.2 “Basic” Labour Force 19
2.3.3 Employment 21
2.3.4 Earnings 22
2.3.4.a Taxation Statistics 22
2.3.5 Economic Dependencies 23
2.3.6 Labour Force and Employment Outlook 25
2.4 The Economic Structure: Current and Outlook 26
2.4.1 Forestry 26
2.4.1.a Provincial Significance 26
2.4.1.b Morice Forestry and the Land Base 26
2.4.1.c Licensee Profiles and Cut Levels 29
2.4.1.d Historic Harvest Levels 33
2.4.1.e Economic Contribution of The Forest Industry 34
2.4.1.f Forest Industry Outlook 36
2.4.2 Mining and Minerals 42
2.4.2.a Provincial Significance 42
2.4.2.b Morice Mining and the Land Base 42
2.4.2.c Summary of Past Mines 44
2.4.2.d Summary of Current Operating Mines 45
2.4.2.e Mineral Tenures 48
2.4.2.f Land Use Conflicts 49
2.4.2.g Mining Outlook 50
2.4.3 Agriculture and Range Lands 51
2.4.3.a Provincial Significance 51
2.4.3.b Morice Agriculture and the Land Base 51
2.4.3.c Regulations and Legislation 52
2.4.3.d Historical/Current Assessment 54
2.4.3.e Agriculture Land Use Conflicts 56
2.4.3.f Agriculture/Range Outlook 57
2.4.4 Commercial Tourism and Recreation 58
2.4.4.a Provincial Significance 58
2.4.4.b Morice Tourism and the Land Base 58
2.4.4.c Regulations and Legislation 60
2.4.4.d Historical/Current Assessment 61
2.4.4.e Tourism Conflicts 70
2.4.4.f Tourism Outlook 72
2.5 Specific First Nations Considerations 73
2.5.1 The Lake Babine Nation 73
2.5.2 Office of the Wet’suwet’en First Nation 73
APPENDIX A: Data Sources and Assumptions 1
APPENDIX B: A Note On Tourism Economic Dependencies 1
APPENDIX C: An Input-Output Primer 1
Listing of Exhibits
Exhibit 1: Distribution of Morice Plan Area by Management Regime 4
Exhibit 2: Distribution of Morice Plan Area by Land Classification 8
Exhibit 3: Index of Total Population, 1981 - 2001 12
Exhibit 4: Morice Plan Area Population Distribution, 2001 and 1981 13
Exhibit 5: Percent of Population 20-34 Years of Age, 1981 – 2001 13
Exhibit 6: Trends in the Number of Movers, 1981 - 2001 15
Exhibit 7: Local Health Area Population Projections 16
Exhibit 8: Index of Labour Force Population 15-64, 1981 - 2001 18
Exhibit 9: Participation Rates, 1981 - 2001 18
Exhibit 10: Indices of Change in Labour Force, 1981 = 1.00 19
Exhibit 11: Trends in Employment, 1981 - 2001 22
Exhibit 12: Trends in Total Earnings, 1991 - 1999 23
Exhibit 13: Categories of Land in the Morice Timber Supply Area 27
Exhibit 14: Distribution of Timber Harvesting Land Base 28
Exhibit 15: Long-Term Harvest Levels in Morice Plan Area 34
Exhibit 16: Metallic Mineral (Extreme plus High) Land Base Distribution 43
Exhibit 17: Morice Mineral Exploration Expenditures and Projects, 1965 – 1998 48
Exhibit 18: Potential Agriculture Land Base Distribution 52
Exhibit 19: Potential Agriculture Land Base and Land Classifications 53
Exhibit 20: Potential Tourism Land Base Distribution 59
Exhibit 21: Potential Tourism Land Base and Land Classification 59
Exhibit 22: Index of Resident Hunt Days in the Morice Plan Area 65
Exhibit 23: High/Medium Tourism Capability Land Conflicts 71
Listing of Tables
Table 1: Listing of Definitions and Acronyms 6
Table 2: Total Population, 1981 - 2001 12
Table 3: Experienced Labour Force, 1981 – 2001 17
Table 4: Experienced Labour Force by Industrial Sector, 2001 20
Table 5: “Basic” Sector Labour Force: 1981 – 2001* 21
Table 6: Income Dependencies in Smithers-Houston 24
Table 7: Morice TSA Annual Allowable Cut Apportionment, by License type 29
Table 8: Houston Forest Products Harvest and Direct Employment Statistics. 31
Table 9: Canfor Harvest and Direct Employment Statistics 32
Table 10: Morice TSA Harvest Volumes Billed, by License Type, 1997–2002 33
Table 11: Socio-Economic Impacts Based on the Current AAC 35
Table 12: Production Statistics at Huckleberry Mine, 1997 - 2002 42
Table 13: Economic Impacts of the Huckleberry Mine 46
Table 14: Mineral Prices, 1991 – 2002 47
Table 15: Mineral Exploration Expenditures, 1980 – 1998 47
Table 16: Morice Plan Area Known Resource Tonnages 50
Table 17: Gross Farm Receipts, 1990 - 2000 54
Table 18: Economic Impacts of Agriculture in the Morice, 2000 55
Table 19: Economic Impacts of Guide Outfitting Overlapping the Morice 63
Table 20: Economic Impacts of Additional Spending by Non-Resident Hunters 64
Table 21: Economic Impacts of Resident Hunter Spending 65
Table 22: Total Economic Impacts of Guided Angling in the Morice Plan Area 67
Table 23: Economic Impacts of Additional Spending by Non-Local Guided Anglers 67
Table 24: Economic Impacts of Non-Local Non-Commercial Angling 68
Table 25: Economic Impacts of Other Commercial Tourism 69
Table 26: Economic Impacts of All Tourism in the Morice Plan Area 70
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Exec Exhibit 1: BASE CASE SUMMARY MATRIX
Account / Status and OutlookSocio-Community Account
General Community / Ø The Morice Plan Area population in 2001 is estimated at 5,192, of which 3,580 (69%) live in Houston, 350 (7%) live in Granisle, 1,099 (21%) live in Subdivision G (Electoral Area G – Houston Rural) and the remainder 163 (3%) live on Reserves.
Ø Populations in both Houston and Granisle have declined since 1981 and continued the declines between 1996 and 2001. Population in Subdivision G increased slightly over the same periods.
Ø The percentage of younger people (aged 20-34) has fallen faster in the Plan Area and each of its communities (municipalities and unincorporated areas) than in the province as a whole.
Ø The percentage of the Houston population receiving either unemployment benefits or Basic BC benefits in 1998 was 11.4 percent.
Ø The number of people moving into the Morice Plan Area and each of its communities has declined since levels reached in 1981 and all communities registered fewer movers in 2001 than in 1996.
Ø The population forecast is for a slight decline over the next five years and then a slight increase to 2016. However, recent announcements regarding mill expansion in Houston may influence upward the short-term forecast.
First Nations / Ø There are four First Nations with traditional territories in the Morice Plan Area.
Ø Two First Nations communities exist in the Plan Area, Fort Babine and Tachet Reserve
Ø Over the last twenty years, there has been a significant shift of First Nations people living off reserve and in the last five years, the population of the two reserves has fallen.
Ø Issues include high unemployment and illiteracy and inadequate infrastructure and government services close to reserves.
Ø First Nations in the Morice Plan Area are working on a number of economic development initiatives, including woodlots, a community forest proposal, and ecotourism initiatives.
Ø First Nations are also involved in a number of assessment needs, GIS work, reconnaissance sweeps and land database enhancement.
General Economy / Ø Total labour force in the Plan Area has declined by 11 percent between 2001 and 1981 percent; in Houston it increased 6 percent, in Subdivision G it increased by 34 percent, but, in contrast, in Granisle it fell by 78 percent. “Basic” labour force followed the same pattern.
Ø Between 2001 and 1996 labour force in the Plan Area declined by over 5 percent; in Houston it declined by almost 5 percent, in Subdivision G it declined by just over 5 percent while in Granisle it stayed constant. “Basic” labour force followed the same pattern.
Ø Employment trends in the Plan Area have generally been downward, falling in 1986, 1996 and again in 2001. Overall employment in 2001 was 14 percent lower than in 1981 and 4 percent lower than in 1996.
Ø Both Houston (5 percent) and Subdivision G (32 percent) had higher employment in 2001 than in 1981, while Granisle had a decline in employment of 84 percent. Between 2001 and 1996 employment fell in all communities.
Ø In the Houston-Smithers area in 1996, an estimated 36 percent of total incomes depended on the forest industry, 3 percent on mining, 3 percent on agriculture, and 7 percent on tourism. Since 1991, the forest dependency increased (from 26 percent), the mining dependency declined (from 9 percent due to many mine closures), agriculture remained stable, and tourism increased slightly from 5 percent.
Ø With the recent announcement by Canadian Forest Products to expand its Houston sawmill and the expansion of the West Fraser mill as well, the employment outlook for the Plan Area appears good.
Economic Development Account
Forestry / Ø Forestry is the mainstay of the Morice Plan Area economy, with an allowable annual cut of almost 2 million cubic metres.
Ø Approximately 46 percent of the Morice Plan Area land base is in the THLB.
Ø Two sawmills exist in Houston (Canfor and Houston Forest Products). The mills’ large throughput requires that significant timber be brought into the mill from other Timber Supply Areas.
Ø The mill expansion by Canfor is expected to reduce the number of employees by 35 workers, but contracting out is expected to increase employment in arms-length companies by 41 employees, resulting in a net gain.
Ø Total direct forestry employment (logging and mills) in the Morice Plan Area is estimated at 1,030 FTE positions generating employment income of $34.2 million.
Ø Including indirect and induced impacts, the number of FTE jobs generated in the Plan Area is estimated at 1,347, with total employment income of $41.7 million.
Ø A number of issues may have significant consequences on the Morice forest sector. These include:
· bark beetle: could increase logging in the short term, but decrease long term harvests
· new legislation (Forest and Range Practices Act, abolition of appurtenancy requirements): could result in lower costs and more efficient operations, and likely the Plan Area operators will benefit from these changes.
· Softwood Lumber Agreement: continuing US tariffs on Canadian softwood could result in a reduction in harvest levels if it remains unresolved.
· Market-Based Timber Pricing: the provincial government is re-allocating 20 percent of logging rights from major licensees, resulting in up to 45 percent of the harvest eventually being available through the open market. It is too early to predict have this will affect Morice operations. The expectation is for a slightly negative impact for revenues and employment, although government revenues could be higher.
Mining & Minerals / Ø Mining has a long history in the Morice Plan Area, producing copper, silver, gold and molybdenum. All but one mine (Huckleberry) has closed.
Ø The Huckleberry Mine employs 215 people with a base annual payroll of $10.7 million, 80 percent of which remains in the Plan Area or in close-by municipalities (Smithers, Telkwa, Burns Lake)
Ø Almost two-thirds on the Plan Area is considered of Extreme or High metallic mineral potential.
Ø Over $9 million was spent on exploration activities between 1994 and 1998 and for the period 2000 to 2002, the estimated exploration activity exceeded $4.7 million.
Ø Direct contribution of the Plan Area mining industry to provincial GDP in 2000 is estimated at $39.0 million; employment at 215 FTE positions.
Ø Taking into account spin-off (indirect and induced) impacts, the total contribution to provincial GDP was $72.2 million; employment of 702 FTEs.
Agriculture & Range Lands / Ø Agriculture in the Morice Plan Area is primarily cattle based, and the 77 farms use both Crown (1/3) and private lands (2/3).
Ø Approximately 43 percent of the potential agriculture and rangeland base occurs in the THLB.
Ø The estimated gross farm receipts in 2000 reached almost $17.5 million, an increase from $15.7 million in 1995 and $11.3 million in 1990.
Ø Direct contribution of the Plan Area agriculture industry to provincial GDP in 2000 is estimated at $3.8 million; employment at 85 FTE positions.
Ø Taking into account spin-off (indirect and induced) impacts, the total contribution to provincial GDP was $12.6 million; employment of 250 FTEs.
Tourism & Recreation / Ø Tourism in the Plan Area is overwhelming nature-based, and includes hunting, fishing and wilderness activities.
Ø Approximately 43 percent of the potential tourism land base occurs in the THLB.
Ø Guide Outfitting and Guided Angling are the two largest earners of tourism dollars in the Plan Area.
Ø Tourists to the Morice Plan Area spent an estimated $6.7 million in 2001 on tourism-related activities.
Ø The contribution to local GDP is estimated at $3.5 million; local jobs at 98 FTE positions; and local contributions to provincial government at $384,000.
Ø Total contribution (direct + indirect + induced) to provincial GDP is estimated at $6.3 million, generating 185 FTE jobs.
Ø World demand for pristine wilderness experiences is increasing and there are significant opportunities to expand nature-based tourism products in the Plan Area to take advantage of this increase in demand.
Provincial Government Revenues / Ø Stumpage revenues from Forestry amounted to an estimated $113 million.
Ø The direct provincial revenues from the Mining sector in the Morice Plan Area are estimated at $1.9 million. Including all indirect and induced impacts associates with mining results in total provincial government revenue of $8.2 million.
Ø Direct provincial government revenues from the Agriculture sector are estimated at $175,000. Including all indirect and induced impacts associated with agriculture results in total provincial government revenues of $630,000.
Ø The direct contributions to provincial government revenues from the tourism and recreation sector are estimated at $384,000. Including all spin-off impacts (indirect and induced) results in a total contribution of $0.9 million to provincial government coffers.
Morice LRMP Base Case Report: Executive Summary page v
1.0 INTRODUCTION
1.1 Overview
Preparatory work for the Morice Land and Resource Management Plan (LRMP) was initiated in September 2001 (see map of Morice Plan Area on page 5). The Planning Table, comprised of stakeholders, First Nations, and local government with interest in resource management in the plan area, convened in October 2002. The goal of the LRMP is to develop a land use strategy that will promote sustainable economic development, diversity and growth in the region, reduce and resolve land use conflicts, increase community participation in decision-making, and protect and enhance the cultural amenities of the area, while at the same time providing the necessary protection to ecosystems.